KY, MS etc. Results Thread

[7,052,770]

Hood needs to make up 40,000 votes. He could optimistically net 20,000 more in Hinds, but he's going to lose some (despite overperforming) in what's left in Madison, Rankin, and Lee, and nowhere else has any significant number outstanding. It's probably time for a call.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Whereabouts are IceSpear/TrendsAreReal/etc? Guess trends aren't real anymore, huh?

I mean, mocking the prediction that KY was safe R is of course fair game, but the trends WERE real in this race. Beshear won by about the same margin as he did in 2015 but with far more urban/suburban support and far less rural support.

Loving the new display name. I appreciate that you can roll with the punches.

[OSR stands with Israel]

"Bevin....never heard of the guy"

https://mobile.twitter.com/JasonSCampbell/status/1191922351346200576

CNN literally said this is not a loss for Trump but for Trumpism so that headline is wrong lol

[Tartarus Sauce]

Interesting night over all. It didn't end up being the crushing all-around rout some hoped for, but ultimately, the results were good for Democrats. Obviously it would have been better if we won more of the VA seats and managed to pull off an upset in Mississippi, but we basically got what we wanted.

I'm fairly content with how everything played out, especially Bevin getting defeated and VA Dems finally getting a trifecta.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Is Hood from the Hattiesburg area?  It seems like he is REALLY over-performing there, even relative to Epsy last year.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Really surprised Beshear won. I was really wrong with my prediction.

Glad to be wrong! Have my babies Amazing Andy!

[lfromnj]

Is Hood from the Hattiesburg area?  It seems like he is REALLY over-performing there, even relative to Epsy last year.

He's from Chicasaw county which is a narrow Obama +5 Trump +6 county.
He broke 60% there NUT

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Whereabouts are IceSpear/TrendsAreReal/etc? Guess trends aren't real anymore, huh?

I mean, mocking the prediction that KY was safe R is of course fair game, but the trends WERE real in this race. Beshear won by about the same margin as he did in 2015 but with far more urban/suburban support and far less rural support.

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/data.php?year=2019&fips=21&f=1&off=5&elect=0&def=tnd&datatype=county




Taking a screenshot of the trend map because other elections  can affect the trend map.

I view 2016 as a reset point of sorts for these trends (at least until Trump is out of office).  Even if the trends are to that group's liking from 2015 (a different political world), they might not be relative to 2016-PRES or 2018.

[Calthrina950]

Whereabouts are IceSpear/TrendsAreReal/etc? Guess trends aren't real anymore, huh?

I mean, mocking the prediction that KY was safe R is of course fair game, but the trends WERE real in this race. Beshear won by about the same margin as he did in 2015 but with far more urban/suburban support and far less rural support.

This is true, but as has been pointed out elsewhere, Beshear would not have won without the counties in Eastern Kentucky (and the ones in the western regions of the state as well) that did support him, and he managed to pull 30% or 40% in many of the counties that he lost. Bevin did significantly underperform Trump just about everywhere in the state.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Is the area radiating outwards from Pulaski County ancestrally Republican in the same way as/for the same reasons as neighboring East Tennessee?

[Calthrina950]

Is the area radiating outwards from Pulaski County ancestrally Republican in the same way as/for the same reasons as neighboring East Tennessee?

Yes. Leslie and Owsley Counties, for example, were among the most Unionist counties in Kentucky during the Civil War, to my understanding. But it is notable to note that Bevin lost that region of the state in the Republican primary-which in hindsight, should have been taken as an indicator of his general-election weaknesses.

[Senator Spark]

Did Beshear actually win? And will there be a recount recanvass?

[MT Treasurer]

Whereabouts are IceSpear/TrendsAreReal/etc? Guess trends aren't real anymore, huh?

I mean, mocking the prediction that KY was safe R is of course fair game, but the trends WERE real in this race. Beshear won by about the same margin as he did in 2015 but with far more urban/suburban support and far less rural support.

This is true, but as has been pointed out elsewhere, Beshear would not have won without the counties in Eastern Kentucky (and the ones in the western regions of the state as well) that did support him, and he managed to pull 30% or 40% in many of the counties that he lost. Bevin did significantly underperform Trump just about everywhere in the state.

Yeah, this isn’t really comparable to what we saw in LA. Bevin probably wishes that this was 2016 trends on steroids, but it certainly wasn’t the case in rural KY.

[Adam Griffin]

Whereabouts are IceSpear/TrendsAreReal/etc? Guess trends aren't real anymore, huh?

I mean, mocking the prediction that KY was safe R is of course fair game, but the trends WERE real in this race. Beshear won by about the same margin as he did in 2015 but with far more urban/suburban support and far less rural support.

Loving the new display name. I appreciate that you can roll with the punches.

*Landyslide

[Badger]

Hood is pretty much done.

You can't really say that with basically no Delta or Jackson or Hood's neck of the woods in yet.

But yeah, Hood is probably going to lose. He could have held the AG seat for life and threw it away. He should have run for Senate last year instead if he's tired of being AG, and he should have lined up a successor Democrat who's not an ACLU lawyer with no funding.

Come on and give him credit man. Democrats both Statewide and nationally have been baking Hood to run for governor forever. It's been a recurring theme on Atlas and one of the few that actually matched that in real life that Jim Hood was the Great White Hope for Democrats hookah when in this deeply Republican state.

Federal races are just too polarized for him to beat CHS, instead he only would have further narrowed the margins some. I think Hood rightly saw both ESPYs performance and the overall Democratic Trend and thought this was his year. It just turned out that Mississippi Republicans actually had a decent candidate win their primary.

Sorry, I just don't agree with this analysis. I think Hood would have had a better chance of beating Hyde-Smith than Reeves, and an even better chance of just keeping the AG seat, which is considerably more powerful than the figurehead-ish governor anyway.

I think Hood was tired of being AG and wanted to go home to Chickasaw County. Just quitting would have looked bad, so he decided to roll the dice for governor, and if he wins, great, easy gig, and if he loses, no big deal.

Well, I agree he could have kept the AG seat, but was tired of it. Like any pol, especially one who has had flatterers from around the state and around the country telling him for years that he was the state Democrats won big chance of retaking the governor's mansion, he saw this as his potential year and lost.

IRC, wasn't Reeves primary opponent whom he narrowly defeated a decidedly worst candidate? Maybe not McDaniel worse, but still not as strong as Reeves? Maybe Hood could have beat him.

[7,052,770]

Dem candidate currently only up 4 in the state senate seat that was redrawn this summer to make even a higher % black (it was already majority black and held by a Republican, who ran for Treasurer and lost in the primary).

The MS Democratic Party is a disgraceful catastrophe in the legislative races.

[Dr. MB]

Bevin's refusing to concede and wants to pull some power moves to throw the election to the state senate. What an absolute cuck.

[Calthrina950]

Whereabouts are IceSpear/TrendsAreReal/etc? Guess trends aren't real anymore, huh?

I mean, mocking the prediction that KY was safe R is of course fair game, but the trends WERE real in this race. Beshear won by about the same margin as he did in 2015 but with far more urban/suburban support and far less rural support.

This is true, but as has been pointed out elsewhere, Beshear would not have won without the counties in Eastern Kentucky (and the ones in the western regions of the state as well) that did support him, and he managed to pull 30% or 40% in many of the counties that he lost. Bevin did significantly underperform Trump just about everywhere in the state.

Yeah, this isn’t really comparable to what we saw in LA. Bevin probably wishes that this was 2016 trends on steroids, but it certainly wasn’t the case in rural KY.

This shows that the trends are not proceeding in an even manner. At any rate though, Beshear's win gives me greater confidence that Edwards will pull it out in Louisiana. And if he does, that means Democrats will have won 2/3 of the gubernatorial races in red states this year. This somewhat compensates for last year, when they fell short in Oklahoma and South Dakota.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Bevin's refusing to concede and wants to pull some power moves to throw the election to the state senate.

...uh...will he be able to?

[Lisa's voting Biden]

NBC and NYT call MS-GOV for Reeves

[MT Treasurer]

This shows that the trends are not proceeding in an even manner. At any rate though, Beshear's win gives me greater confidence that Edwards will pull it out in Louisiana. And if he does, that means Democrats will have won 2/3 of the gubernatorial races in red states this year. This somewhat compensates for last year, when they fell short in Oklahoma and South Dakota.

Actually, I wouldn’t be too sure about that. If I were JBE I’d pay more attention to what’s happening in MS than KY.

[Ronnie]

In other news, Kshama Sawant is down 45.8 - 54.2 in her city council race.  Would be a real shame if Amazon succeeded in buying the election for her opponent.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The Hood has been defeated. And with that, Democrats now hold no statewide offices in Mississippi.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

CNN calls MS-GOV for Reeves.

[OSR stands with Israel]

In other news, Kshama Sawant is down 45.8 - 54.2 in her city council race.  Would be a real shame if Amazon succeeded in buying the election for her opponent.

great news