KY, MS etc. Results Thread

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Bevin's refusing to concede and wants to pull some power moves to throw the election to the state senate.

...uh...will he be able to?

I still want an answer to this. Is there any actual legal/constitutional recourse that Bevin can take advantage of or is he just posturing to create questions about Beshear's legitimacy?

[Nyvin]

Bevin's refusing to concede and wants to pull some power moves to throw the election to the state senate.

...uh...will he be able to?

I still want an answer to this. Is there any actual legal/constitutional recourse that Bevin can take advantage of or is he just posturing to create questions about Beshear's legitimacy?

No.   The most he can do is request a recount in court.   A judge would have to approve the recount (there is no automatic recount in KY).   

[7,052,770]

Dem candidate currently only up 4 in the state senate seat that was redrawn this summer to make even a higher % black (it was already majority black and held by a Republican, who ran for Treasurer and lost in the primary).

The MS Democratic Party is a disgraceful catastrophe in the legislative races.

Looks like R+3 in the Senate to get to 36-16, assuming Democrats eke out the Court-mandated VRA seat that's still close.

In the House, Democrats actually knocked out an incumbent in DeSoto of all places. Go figure. Not sure what the swing will end up as.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Did anyone use the line "Kentucky Fried Bevin" yet?

This definitely makes up for someone I personally know, and don't care for (while also being a Republican) becoming my new representative in the New Jersey Assembly. I'm proud to be wrong about Kentucky. It's especially good because now I don't even have to care about the results of the Louisiana gubernatorial election. I was always going to be happy if the Democrats ended up winning at least one of the big three gubernatorial races, and now I am. I will of course be relieved at an Edwards victory on the 16th, should it happen. Virginia too provided some very satisfying results tonight, though those were much more expected. I can't even be disappointed by Mississippi either, I expected even less out of it than I did Kentucky. Sometimes low expectations can reward you with pleasant surprises. Because of those expectations, I have actually found this election night less stressful than last year's-Florida didn't ruin it. Though my own state is a tiny bit.

The burbstomping continues! I mean, sure, it may have been more of a rejection of Bevin than it was an embrace of Beshear, but it ultimately proves that prioritizing the President's ego over issues is costing Republicans and that the trends in the suburbs are real.

It's nice that this year hasn't been such a drought for Democratic electoral wins after all. I really hope that whatever shenanigans Bevin wants to pull doesn't undo this.

[Tender Branson]

The moron Bevin has been defeated ?

Great !

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Turns out there were just a lot of ultra-GOP outstanding precincts in Hattiesburg's county.  Reeves won it by 1.7.

[Del Tachi]

Hughes spent the last 2 years running for LG and is going to do worse than the no-name Dems who ran further down the ballot.  Sheesh. 

[McNukes™ #NYCMMWasAHero]

Atlas mostly predicted that Bevin would win, but NYCMM conceded that Beshear could win by a tiny margin, and I called the state a toss-up. Both of these predictions were ultimately accurate, with the margins being nearly razor thin in this critical red state this year. Our predictions for the Mississippi gubernatorial race also turned out to be on point. Mississippi was won by more than 50%, and the GOP swept every statewide office in Mississippi in the process. The Democrats lost tonight, no doubt, as they've now lost yet another strong incumbent in Dixie, allowing the GOP to free more resources for its Northward offensives.

We predicted that it would be Bevin 51%, Beshear 47%, Libertarian 2%. But also said that there was the possibility that it'd be a <1% win for Beshear.

We predicted that it would be Reeves 53%, Hood 46%, with others making only table scraps off the Democratic table.

We outperformed the Atlas consensus, and I expect that we will be more accurate than the Atlas consensus for the 2020 Presidential Election and in other elections in the future. We are Atlas' ultimate electoral prediction duo.

[morgieb]

This shows that the trends are not proceeding in an even manner. At any rate though, Beshear's win gives me greater confidence that Edwards will pull it out in Louisiana. And if he does, that means Democrats will have won 2/3 of the gubernatorial races in red states this year. This somewhat compensates for last year, when they fell short in Oklahoma and South Dakota.

Actually, I wouldn’t be too sure about that. If I were JBE I’d pay more attention to what’s happening in MS than KY.

Yeah I do think Kentucky rurals are a bit more enlightened (or at least more supportive of good government) than Deep South rural whites. But on the other hand, Louisiana is historically pretty atypical downballot...like up until a few weeks ago I think the Dems held some 80%+ Trump House seats, so in that sense it's also closer to Kentucky than Mississippi. And the fundamentals of that race seem closer to Kentucky (although o/c the difference there is a popular governor from the opposing party rather than an unpopular governor from the dominant party) than Mississippi (where the Dems admittedly had a strong candidate, but didn't have any incumbency factors to help him and the Republican candidate was at least OK - is it worth noting that the thing that doomed Hood was suburbanites not swinging enough to counteract his inevitable rural losses?).

[ElectionsGuy]

Maybe you were right, but I specifically remember MM predicting a similar margin to mine (around 7/8 points), so saying 'maybe he could win' isn't really worth trophy points. The other points about how the GOP supposedly won the night is laughable. None of these races should've been close in any respect if they supposedly won.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

"I see this as an absolute win!"

[Calthrina950]

This shows that the trends are not proceeding in an even manner. At any rate though, Beshear's win gives me greater confidence that Edwards will pull it out in Louisiana. And if he does, that means Democrats will have won 2/3 of the gubernatorial races in red states this year. This somewhat compensates for last year, when they fell short in Oklahoma and South Dakota.

Actually, I wouldn’t be too sure about that. If I were JBE I’d pay more attention to what’s happening in MS than KY.

Yeah I do think Kentucky rurals are a bit more enlightened (or at least more supportive of good government) than Deep South rural whites. But on the other hand, Louisiana is historically pretty atypical downballot...like up until a few weeks ago I think the Dems held some 80%+ Trump House seats, so in that sense it's also closer to Kentucky than Mississippi. And the fundamentals of that race seem closer to Kentucky (although o/c the difference there is a popular governor from the opposing party rather than an unpopular governor from the dominant party) than Mississippi (where the Dems admittedly had a strong candidate, but didn't have any incumbency factors to help him and the Republican candidate was at least OK - is it worth noting that the thing that doomed Hood was suburbanites not swinging enough to counteract his inevitable rural losses?).

In Mississippi, the Democrats also held a number of rural, majority white seats. And most of those flipped tonight. I believe there are now only two white Democrats left in Mississippi's legislature. But in general, you are correct, both about why Hood lost and about the dynamics of the upcoming election in Louisiana. Edwards, like Beshear, will need the votes of traditionally Republican suburbanites around New Orleans and Baton Rouge to hold on.

[morgieb]

Whereabouts are IceSpear/TrendsAreReal/etc? Guess trends aren't real anymore, huh?

I mean, mocking the prediction that KY was safe R is of course fair game, but the trends WERE real in this race. Beshear won by about the same margin as he did in 2015 but with far more urban/suburban support and far less rural support.

I mean you're right, I was mostly just being a gloating jerk.

Although it is worth noting that the Demosaurs being woken up for one last ride was crucial in the end. If you looked at the results in yer Campbell's and your Oldham's you'd probably assume that Bevin was looking at a mid-single digit sort of win (still a lot closer than what you were assuming, but still #Bevinevitable), but enough of coal country bolted to a degree that allowed Beshear to make up the extra 5% or so.

[jamestroll]

This shows that the trends are not proceeding in an even manner. At any rate though, Beshear's win gives me greater confidence that Edwards will pull it out in Louisiana. And if he does, that means Democrats will have won 2/3 of the gubernatorial races in red states this year. This somewhat compensates for last year, when they fell short in Oklahoma and South Dakota.

Actually, I wouldn’t be too sure about that. If I were JBE I’d pay more attention to what’s happening in MS than KY.

Yes but Louisiana has some clear suburban parishes that he actually did well in in the primary.

[NOVA Green]

KY Politics at the State level are statewide politics but tie into an Historical Narrative, which can trickle into Federal GE Races....

The revival of the Trade Union Movement in the Form of the Teacher's Strikes in Kentucky have revived the memories of older retirees in a heavily white impoverished State.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/13/us/teacher-walkout-kentucky-oklahoma-arizona/index.html

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/education/2019/03/20/teacher-strike-sickout-kentucky-jcps-wayne-lewis-names-list/3223587002/

https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/education/2019/02/28/kentucky-teacher-sickout-strike-due-to-pension-system-bill/3012091002/

https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/409014-some-in-kentucky-teacher-strike-were-confused-says-governor

https://apnews.com/3622dc9b61204787a5b5f3da24e409e1


Although this did not directly cripple the KY State Republican Party, it is clear that they got a punch in the face from segments of the electorate that they had expected to win, based upon the popularity of the 'Pub brand on items such as Energy Policy, Social Conservative Religious Platforms, and even possibly even Gun Owners (Although that vast majority of KY Voters have a firearm within their house).

Anybody who chooses to believe that many registered KY DEMs within the Coal Country of SE KY have forgotten their Coal Miner Daughter Roots, let alone Coal Counties of Western Kentucky (Muhlenberg County for one example) have forgotten their Trade Union Ancestral Roots, must be smoking a bigger and stronger form of Crystal Meth than any of the "crackheads" within the declining Timber Mill and Factory Towns of Downstate Oregon....

UMWA Pension Plans have been screwed over from the bosses for a long time, which is currently one of the major items for the rump of the UMWA, while meanwhile there are literally generations of Coal Miners within the tight-knit communities of Appalachia that will always remember and never forget, while meanwhile their kids and grandkids migrate to the bright-lights and big cities of places like Cinci, Indie, Chi-Town....

"Insert John Prine Song from the early '70s"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DEy6EuZp9IY

No Question: Beshear's win was directly a result of the Union Movement activists in a heavily Non-Union State, with the small exception of a handful of Public Sector Workers (Teachers, Cops, Firefighters, County, State, and Municipal Employees) that were getting screwed over by the same type of forced "Austerity Politics" we have seen enforced against our rural communities over the decades from both Democratic and Republican Political Leaders alike.

[Badger]

"Bevin....never heard of the guy"

https://mobile.twitter.com/JasonSCampbell/status/1191922351346200576

DJT Jr. is a greasy liar, but he's not that wrong here.  If the Republican incumbent wasn't as unpopular as Bevin, this race wouldn't have even been close.  It's not a repudiation of Trump.

It proves that Trump has far less sway over voters then he believes or Republicans hope.

[OneJ]

Hughes spent the last 2 years running for LG and is going to do worse than the no-name Dems who ran further down the ballot.  Sheesh. 

I know right?

[Annatar]

Comparison of 5 statewide races in 2015 to 2019, GOP won them by 10.4% on average in 2015, won them by 14.4% on average tonight, 4% improvement, big outlier was Governor race.

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1191898417577918464

[Lisa's voting Biden]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1191947091461001216?s=20
https://twitter.com/GOPChairwoman/status/1191938610565656576?s=20

[McNukes™ #NYCMMWasAHero]

Maybe you were right, but I specifically remember MM predicting a similar margin to mine (around 7/8 points), so saying 'maybe he could win' isn't really worth trophy points. The other points about how the GOP supposedly won the night is laughable. None of these races should've been close in any respect if they supposedly won.

You may be somewhat correct regarding one of us; however, NYCMM predicted about a 3% margin when I spoke to him, so if Beshear merely got two extra points at the expense of Bevin, which isn't that far off.

[NOVA Green]

Hughes spent the last 2 years running for LG and is going to do worse than the no-name Dems who ran further down the ballot.  Sheesh. 

I know right?

One_J was wondering if you were going to pop up on Election Night, considering we have a small handful of informed posters from MS including yourself and Del Tachi that are likely to actually pop up on election nights....

What's your current take on the election results you are seeing from the ground thus far?

Granted, I always put a caveat when it comes to lower turnout elections, without seeing where turnout patterns are and historical results by precinct.

2020 I would expect turnout to be much higher within MS than within a GOV election.

Key question for 2020, would be where will turnout improve at higher levels, considering that the MS-GOV election was much closer than many might have expected....

[OBD]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1191947091461001216?s=20
https://twitter.com/GOPChairwoman/status/1191938610565656576?s=20

I guess that Beshear+19 Targoz poll was actually right on the mark :/

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

In other news, Kshama Sawant is down 45.8 - 54.2 in her city council race.  Would be a real shame if Amazon succeeded in buying the election for her opponent.

great news

[Santander]

So goes Santander, so goes Kentucky...

The deplorables are ditching Trump and embracing AOC.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

v cool Nukes

tonight's jerkoff session will be dedicated to you and NYCMM