North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[Torie]

Is it really too much to ask for this state to be normal in redistricting?

I'm pretty sure they're trolling at this point. Trends look atrocious for the GOP in 13 and 14 and pretty bad in 6 and even 8, so they wouldn't want this map beyond 2022. Probably just aiming for a court drawn map which they can easily redraw in 2022. I do wonder why they didn't do this for the state legislature; maybe they thought restricting the court legislative maps to 2 years might have been unconstitutional.

Is it clear that if the legislature passes a map it does not like under court pressure, it lasts for 10 years, and cannot be changed, but if the court draws the map it only lasts until the legislature can get passed a new map that a court with different justices will uphold?

[lfromnj]

Is it really too much to ask for this state to be normal in redistricting?

I'm pretty sure they're trolling at this point. Trends look atrocious for the GOP in 13 and 14 and pretty bad in 6 and even 8, so they wouldn't want this map beyond 2022. Probably just aiming for a court drawn map which they can easily redraw in 2022. I do wonder why they didn't do this for the state legislature; maybe they thought restricting the court legislative maps to 2 years might have been unconstitutional.

6 seems stagnant. It removes the NW corner of Guilford which is the upscale part. Its a Trump Cunningham district .

[Sol]

Is it really too much to ask for this state to be normal in redistricting?

I'm pretty sure they're trolling at this point. Trends look atrocious for the GOP in 13 and 14 and pretty bad in 6 and even 8, so they wouldn't want this map beyond 2022. Probably just aiming for a court drawn map which they can easily redraw in 2022. I do wonder why they didn't do this for the state legislature; maybe they thought restricting the court legislative maps to 2 years might have been unconstitutional.

Is it clear that if the legislature passes a map it does not like under court pressure, it lasts for 10 years, and cannot be changed, but if the court draws the map it only lasts until the legislature can get passed a new map that a court with different justices will uphold?

I think that's the Republican interpretation.

In all likelihood, these maps are only going to last for this year anyway one way or another (a Republican controlled state supreme court is guaranteed to strike anything down), so it's better to have good maps than ugly NCGA bong smoke maps.

[lfromnj]

By the way folks the best indicator of trends in NC on DRA is comparing 2014 sen to either 2020 senate or presidential.  2020 senate is probably closer to where NC is downballot  although 2020 presidential does extend the trends somewhat.

[BoiseBoy]

The 9-5 CST22-3 map passed committee on a voice vote and will go to the full floor when the senate reconvenes at 12:30.

[Vern]

The 9-5 CST22-3 map passed committee on a voice vote and will go to the full floor when the senate reconvenes at 12:30.

I personally think this map is ok. I understand people are making an uproar of Guilford getting spilt. But it could be a lot worse.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The 9-5 CST22-3 map passed committee on a voice vote and will go to the full floor when the senate reconvenes at 12:30.

I assume (hope) no Democrat voted for this monstrosity?

[Sol]

The 9-5 CST22-3 map passed committee on a voice vote and will go to the full floor when the senate reconvenes at 12:30.

I personally think this map is ok. I understand people are making an uproar of Guilford getting spilt. But it could be a lot worse.

I don't really understand why so many people are going all in about how Guilford shouldn't be split--if you support a triad district not splitting Guilford means you have to split Winston-Salem, which is objectively way worse than Guilford.

Of course, this specific split is just bong smoke bs and a true disgrace, but Guilford County being split shouldn't be rejected out of hand.

[Oryxslayer]

The 9-5 CST22-3 map passed committee on a voice vote and will go to the full floor when the senate reconvenes at 12:30.

I personally think this map is ok. I understand people are making an uproar of Guilford getting spilt. But it could be a lot worse.

I means the underlying numbers are somewhat fine, but geography is awful. Which was the intention, and your perspective depends on your goals. I have seen national commentators say exactly what you said, but everyone in NC is like, "nope!" And that reflects the differences in purposes: national only care about seat totals, but the people who have to live with the lines want something everyone can understand.

To that end, I'm sure the courts rejection of this map would go like "The legislature made a valid attempt for partisan equity, but did not similarly observe the compactness requirements were also requested."

[Vern]

The 9-5 CST22-3 map passed committee on a voice vote and will go to the full floor when the senate reconvenes at 12:30.

I personally think this map is ok. I understand people are making an uproar of Guilford getting spilt. But it could be a lot worse.

I means the underlying numbers are somewhat fine, but geography is awful. Which was the intention, and your perspective depends on your goals. I have seen national commentators say exactly what you said, but everyone in NC is like, "nope!" And that reflects the differences in purposes: national only care about seat totals, but the people who have to live with the lines want something everyone can understand.

To that end, I'm sure the courts rejection of this map would go like "The legislature made a valid attempt for partisan equity, but did not similarly observe the compactness requirements were also requested."

Yea, I think, I’m order to make close districts, they will have to look weird. And local dems didn’t care about how the maps looked when they drew them to benefit themselves.

[lfromnj]

For fun I drew a NC senate without the required clusters, many of them are still kept although changes were made. Overall has 22 Biden seats, (3 black belt seats) 7 in the Wake Durham Cluster as Franklin keeps the northern seat a Trump seat. 3 in Triad , 5 in Charlotte, 1 Asheville, 1 Wilmington, 1 Fayetteville , and 1 Alamance-Chatham  tilting seat to the north with the rural counties. Has 26 Cooper seats with Cooper flipping the Cabarrus, northern Wake , the rural seat north of Durham, and lastly the Lumbee seat.



edit; Alternative configuration to keep Rockingham Stokes together as they push into Western Forsyth. Instead of a rock solid 3 D 2 R map this has 2 Safe D a Lean D , a tossup and 1 Safe R. Gives Cooper 27 seats and is only 0.3 points right of the state by Cooper #s and is therefore also the median seat statewide if you include the state as a whole as a seat in the state senate due to the lt gov election.

I'll wait for Sol's response on which Triad configuration he prefers.

Main improvements from strict county based map IMO

NE black belt areas are more cohesive, Edgecombe and Nash are an obvious COI, and we now have a pure true rural black belt senate seat.

No Moore- Cumberland district.

Exurban/rural areas near the research triangle have better districts. The County clusters forced Person/Caswell into Orange County, Chatham went with Durham which is somewhat fine but Chatham overall has a pretty polarizing divide in East vs West and lastly placed the somewhat close Alamance county with 80% R areas in Randolph county.  Overall the triangle changes in my map slightly helps Republicans but mostly just creates 2 swing seats from 1 Safe R and 1 Safe D  seat and  IMO is better representative of these counties rather than the deeply polarizing Randolph/Durham/Orange being allowed to dominate these counties when it is possible not to.

Also lastly allows a cleaner Asheville suburban Henderson district without creating a near touch point contiguity district.

[Torie]

Is it really too much to ask for this state to be normal in redistricting?

I'm pretty sure they're trolling at this point. Trends look atrocious for the GOP in 13 and 14 and pretty bad in 6 and even 8, so they wouldn't want this map beyond 2022. Probably just aiming for a court drawn map which they can easily redraw in 2022. I do wonder why they didn't do this for the state legislature; maybe they thought restricting the court legislative maps to 2 years might have been unconstitutional.

Is it clear that if the legislature passes a map it does not like under court pressure, it lasts for 10 years, and cannot be changed, but if the court draws the map it only lasts until the legislature can get passed a new map that a court with different justices will uphold?

I think that's the Republican interpretation.

In all likelihood, these maps are only going to last for this year anyway one way or another (a Republican controlled state supreme court is guaranteed to strike anything down), so it's better to have good maps than ugly NCGA bong smoke maps.

I don't think under the doctrine of res judicata, a court can reverse its opinion on the same case. So if the Pubs take over the court, the legislature would need to pass a new map, and then the court could uphold that map and reverse its prior decision that equal rights to happiness does not mean that maps must be proportional from a partisan standpoint.

[Sol]

Is it really too much to ask for this state to be normal in redistricting?

I'm pretty sure they're trolling at this point. Trends look atrocious for the GOP in 13 and 14 and pretty bad in 6 and even 8, so they wouldn't want this map beyond 2022. Probably just aiming for a court drawn map which they can easily redraw in 2022. I do wonder why they didn't do this for the state legislature; maybe they thought restricting the court legislative maps to 2 years might have been unconstitutional.

Is it clear that if the legislature passes a map it does not like under court pressure, it lasts for 10 years, and cannot be changed, but if the court draws the map it only lasts until the legislature can get passed a new map that a court with different justices will uphold?

I think that's the Republican interpretation.

In all likelihood, these maps are only going to last for this year anyway one way or another (a Republican controlled state supreme court is guaranteed to strike anything down), so it's better to have good maps than ugly NCGA bong smoke maps.

I don't think under the doctrine of res judicata, a court can reverse its opinion on the same case. So if the Pubs take over the court, the legislature would need to pass a new map, and then the court could uphold that map and reverse its prior decision that equal rights to happiness does not mean that maps must be proportional from a partisan standpoint.

That's fair enough but it doesn't really change the calculus.

So the two scenarios, as I see it for congressional redistricting:
--The court upholds the new maps. Republicans then draw new congressional maps after the 2022 elections, as they are free to do so, and then the maps are upheld in the Republican supreme court.
--The court draws the maps, which are allowed to only last a cycle. Republicans then draw new congressional maps after the 2022 elections, as they are free to do so, and then the maps are upheld in the Republican supreme court.

Of course, there's some legal question about the NCGA's ability to do mid-decade redistricting, but I assume a Republican court won't agree with this interpetation.

[GALeftist]

Of course, there's some legal question about the NCGA's ability to do mid-decade redistricting, but I assume a Republican court won't agree with this interpetation.

There's an explicit prohibition on mid-decade legislative redistricting, no? So those maps are likely final at least. This is probably why there's such a disparity between the legislative and congressional maps in terms of goofiness.

[Sol]

Of course, there's some legal question about the NCGA's ability to do mid-decade redistricting, but I assume a Republican court won't agree with this interpetation.

There's an explicit prohibition on mid-decade legislative redistricting, no? So those maps are likely final at least. This is probably why there's such a disparity between the legislative and congressional maps in terms of goofiness.

Well, the legislative maps also have the cluster rule constraining behavior, but yeah.

[lfromnj]

Of course, there's some legal question about the NCGA's ability to do mid-decade redistricting, but I assume a Republican court won't agree with this interpetation.

There's an explicit prohibition on mid-decade legislative redistricting, no? So those maps are likely final at least. This is probably why there's such a disparity between the legislative and congressional maps in terms of goofiness.

The state house seems more terrified of the court, they basically drew a D gerrymander for the state house. State senate mostly just drew a fair map, with a mild R mander in New Hanover and a D gerrymander in Mecklenburg.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The 9-5 CST22-3 map passed committee on a voice vote and will go to the full floor when the senate reconvenes at 12:30.

I assume (hope) no Democrat voted for this monstrosity?

Someone confirm that?

[lfromnj]

The 9-5 CST22-3 map passed committee on a voice vote and will go to the full floor when the senate reconvenes at 12:30.

I assume (hope) no Democrat voted for this monstrosity?

Someone confirm that?

https://twitter.com/BrentWoodcox/status/1494387492480507905

Well they still support cracking Greensboro

but yeah no one voted for it.

Turns out failing to understand don't crack Greensboro is a bipartisan move.

[Skill and Chance]

Not a fan of this decision.  I'm for court oversight of gerrymandering, but they just made up a new standard out of thin air that contradicts what they approved 2 years ago.  This isn't like OH where the legislature plainly ignored the text and intent of the commission amendment the voters just passed.  They are making it up as they go along.

[Oryxslayer]

NC senate approved their GOP-proposed legislative map and congressional map on a party-line vote.

[BoiseBoy]

NC senate approved their GOP-proposed legislative map and congressional map on a party-line vote.

Just to clarify if this map passes in the House later, the 3 judge panel appointed needs to give their approval? I don't see them doing that.

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/BryanRAnderson/status/1494413856998780940?s=20&t=jnT6AtX...

[patzer]

Thought I'd try making a highly competitive NC map. Tried to avoid splitting communities of interest too egregiously but it ended up with more county splits than I'd wanted. Oh well.

3R-3D-8C; 8 Trump to 6 Biden in 2020. Made the VRA 1st district safe dem.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/53adcdec-4761-4220-837a-dcc2263ac3a6

[compucomp]

NC senate approved their GOP-proposed legislative map and congressional map on a party-line vote.

Just to clarify if this map passes in the House later, the 3 judge panel appointed needs to give their approval? I don't see them doing that.

I think this map passed the legislature last night.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/594908-north-carolina-legislature-approves-new-us-house-maps

North Carolina legislators approved new U.S. House district map lines late Thursday, creating at least three competitive congressional districts after the state’s highest court struck down lawmakers’ first attempt at revised boundaries.

The maps appear to create seven solidly Republican districts across the state and three districts almost certain to elect a Democratic member of Congress. A fourth district, held by retiring Rep. G.K. Butterfield (D), leans toward Democrats.

Three other districts would be narrowly divided between the two parties, potentially imperiling two incumbents who plan to seek reelection this year.

[BoiseBoy]

Three maps have been filed with the judicial panel that will decide on the congressional map. The first one is the one passed by the legislature, the second (S738) is the CST-8 map that was previously tabled and is being suggested by the Harper plaintiffs. The third map is being presented by the NC League of Conservation Voters. Any one of these could be picked.

https://twitter.com/BryanRAnderson/status/1494824220056076291