North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[lfromnj]

Thanks for catching the erratum. Trump 2020 won the far west CD by 7.4%, and the partisan spoils I think in the western part of the state, and indeed statewide, were skillfully divided. The district to the east that goes into the Charlotte burbs was Pubbed up a bit with a pad to anticipate future Pub headwinds there. In other words, the Asheville CD was probably deliberately made a bit marginal to minimize dummymander potential. And thus it took in most of Watauga County that leans Dem (albeit also adding the small heavily Pub county en route) in order to give the CD that runs along the northern border all the way to Greensboro a materially longer Pub half life, and the rest of the Asheville action to protect the CD that runs into the Charlotte maelstrom for the Pubs that in due time will probably flip the state as it segues into the next Atlanta-like metro for the Dems. This assumes of course that the Pubs move along in their current psephological death spiral without a course correction. But that can't happen until Trump is de-fanged, if then.

That district is made for Speaker Tim Moore. That is why he gets the safest district in the state. I guess Cawthorn is just annoying punk to the party so they don't care about him.

IMO the Greensboro and the Charlotte district could definitely distribute those margins to "shore up" NC11 but they don't really care enough to shore up Cawthorn.

[lfromnj]

Thanks for catching the erratum. Trump 2020 won the far west CD by 7.4%, and the partisan spoils I think in the western part of the state, and indeed statewide, were skillfully divided. The district to the east that goes into the Charlotte burbs was Pubbed up a bit with a pad to anticipate future Pub headwinds there. In other words, the Asheville CD was probably deliberately made a bit marginal to minimize dummymander potential. And thus it took in most of Watauga County that leans Dem (albeit also adding the small heavily Pub county en route) in order to give the CD that runs along the northern border all the way to Greensboro a materially longer Pub half life, and the rest of the Asheville action to protect the CD that runs into the Charlotte maelstrom for the Pubs that in due time will probably flip the state as it segues into the next Atlanta-like metro for the Dems. This assumes of course that the Pubs move along in their current psephological death spiral without a course correction. But that can't happen until Trump is de-fanged, if then.

That district is made for Speaker Tim Moore. That is why he gets the safest district in the state. I guess Cawthorn is just annoying punk to the party so they don't care about him.

IMO the Greensboro and the Charlotte district could definitely distribute those margins to "shore up" NC11 but they don't really care enough to shore up Cawthorn.

Well that is another interpretation, but I stand by my natterings anyway made without understanding who was doing what to whom among the lean and hungry ones. Maybe Moore's narcissism just happened to serve Pub long term interests best. You sound so bitter and cynical. Of course that emotion set fits the times. Sad.

?

I am just pointing out what happened and how it isn't maximally efficient in the West. It is pretty similar to IL 17th in that it wasn't maxed out.  However it still is very much efficient and compared to IL 17th there seem to be more serious incumbent demands to worry about compared to a young punk.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/will_doran/status/1455169324935786505

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/will_doran/status/1455169324935786505

So true. In fact, this is why the Democratic plan for Illinois is so beautiful. Instead of being packed in with a bunch of other rural areas to elect some no-name GOP backbencher, Danville is going to be represented by the chair of the most powerful party in Illinois! It's frankly an enormous leap in representation for these Illinoisans. Couldn't be more happy for them.

LOL!, honestly its more funny that this exact same argument was used to draw the parallel senate seats from Jackson to Ann Arbor in Michigan.

So Democrats/Republicans/ and even commissions will say this stuff. #allsides.

[lfromnj]

Also for some reason the NC GOP decided to split 1 precinct  into 3 districts?

Like why?

[lfromnj]

Also for some reason the NC GOP decided to split 1 precinct  into 3 districts?

Like why?

What was the size of the precinct in population?

It is in Wake county, it looks really ugly down there for some reason. I guess it was just hard to get population equality?. I don't think any republican is from that area.

[lfromnj]

Also for some reason the NC GOP decided to split 1 precinct  into 3 districts?

Like why?

What was the size of the precinct in population?

It is in Wake county, it looks really ugly down there for some reason. I guess it was just hard to get population equality?. I don't think any republican is from that area.

That sounds most likely.
Wake has some pretty big precincts too iirc.
I asked because precinct splitting twice looks much better on a 10k precinct as opposed to a 2k one.

Yeah if the map somehow stands in time it will probably be the earmuffs all over again as it looks nasty at a close up.(Aka a whole map that is gerrymandered but the focus will be on the wrong area)

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/EveryVoiceNC/status/1455250780966072322

Any idea Sol or is it just population equality? When making my wake senate districts I had this issue as well because all of them are like -4.9% so you have to be very careful.

Obviously the Wake triple split is part of the issue but it isn't the main thing

[lfromnj]

The wonky lines in Wake are a silly attempt to follow municipal lines, presumably to avoid complaints about splitting towns.

Wow looks horrific but NC city lines in general are horrific. How important are they anyway with regards to local government?

I mean I try to keep them together but I think that many precinct splits probably adds too much cost?

[lfromnj]

Also I just realized that Bishop won't be living in NC09 anymore. Interesting.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/lekhashupeck/status/1455548752526258176

Senate district committee meeting today.  Harder to attack anything specific compared to the congressional map besides that cluster in the NE which obviously is pretty bs.

I still don't know what their goal is regarding the supreme court. Like the state senate map should pass scrutiny by even them other than that NE cluster but congressional is a big question.

[lfromnj]

I was wondering if NC-02 could be drawn in a way that got if over 50% BCVAP, thus potentially triggering Gingles if deemed compact. The answer is yes, barely, with a lot of contortions. The odds that a federal court deems it compact enough to trigger Gingles is probably fairly low, but if triggered, the issue is then whether a 2% Biden margin CD is deemed a black performing CD. Perhaps, since the black incumbent would have run way ahead of that, but it is a close call. So there is some VRA risk with the Butterfield CD, but if called on it by a court, it can with another chop or two, be made more Dem, so it probably is not an imprudent Pub risk to take.

Butterfield actually ran behind Biden by 0.1%. He faced a C/B tier candidate just like  Vicente Gonzalez did instead of the regular no namer. A lot of incumbent overperformances are fairly paper thin.

[lfromnj]

I was wondering if NC-02 could be drawn in a way that got if over 50% BCVAP, thus potentially triggering Gingles if deemed compact. The answer is yes, barely, with a lot of contortions. The odds that a federal court deems it compact enough to trigger Gingles is probably fairly low, but if triggered, the issue is then whether a 2% Biden margin CD is deemed a black performing CD. Perhaps, since the black incumbent would have run way ahead of that, but it is a close call. So there is some VRA risk with the Butterfield CD, but if called on it by a court, it can with another chop or two, be made more Dem, so it probably is not an imprudent Pub risk to take.

Butterfield actually ran behind Biden by 0.1%. He faced a C/B tier candidate just like  Vicente Gonzalez did instead of the regular no namer. A lot of incumbent overperformances are fairly paper thin.

That surprises me, but OK, then the compact issue becomes more salient. The voting must be very racially polarized.

It's a bit farther north than say SC/AL/GA/MS so not as racially polarized.  Biden runs like 10% ahead of black VAP %

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/MurphinNC/status/1455660028103479300?s=20

Moving towards house.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/MurphinNC/status/1455933928691351555

Democrats tried to get some amendments to get all the Charlotte and Wake seats Safe D(No reason for the GOP to do that when not doing so isn't even a gerrymander)

[lfromnj]

What's the Trump-Biden number on the Fayetteville seat?

Like Trump +7.5. Cooper narrowly loses it.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/aggou/status/1455996047252205576
Chatham seat is no longer tossup as they have decided not to overpopulate it by the 4.9% .

[lfromnj]

Seems like the GOPs goal was to try increase the chances of holding a majority rather than worrying about seat 30 or 31.

I mean seat 72(veto override) would be nice for the GOP for  2022 although they probably pick that up ..

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1456053111362097156

[lfromnj]

If you honestly think that is why the Democrats in then states do that. Then you are fooling yourself.

I’m not saying it’s the only reason. But it was definitely republicans that started the modern gerrymandering war with the old Texas, Louisiana, Florida maps of the 2000s & 2010s. Democrats also are playing in this, but we’re the ones trying to end it.

I think you are forgetting what Democrats did in NC for years. Republicans in NC at least are making maps that are too crazy

...back when the Democratic party in states like NC and TX was still led by white conservatives. You may not be aware that a decade ago, Republicans saw gerrymandering as a necessary tool to achieve power, while the people advocating for commissions and independent redistricting were Democrats. Good government and independent redistricting are liberal priorities. After Republicans used gerrymandering to lock up state legislatures and Congress, many liberals said Inks this, let's go for the jugular, too.

Some stuff

Firstly part of the ugliness of the maps was forced by HW Bush forcing VRA seats that made no sense like the I85 district. That doesn't mean that was the only reason but it was a major reason.


Secondly , I am pretty sure Roy Cooper  was involved to some degree in the 1997 mid decade court redistricting.  It isn't like it was all white dinos. The NC democrats were a multi racial party
Brad Miller was redistricting  chair in 2000 and drew his future CD. He was one of the most progressive  members and called for banking reforms that went quite far.  Cal Cunningham won a quite gerrymandered district back in 2000 as well.

This isn't to make an argument but it is important to note  that NC was not exactly DINO.

Infact in Georgia during the 2001 redistricting  John Lewis testified in court to help uphold the gerrymandering Roy Barnes drew. (In defense Lewis's testification was mostly just relating to unpacking the black seats)However compared to NC basically all those white Democrats are non existent after the Georgia GOP gerrymandered them out replacing them mostly with black liberals. Some of this was kinda the safe route as Atlanta and inner ring black areas faced low growth and some seats had to be cut to the suburbs so they didnt want to have retrogression arguments.. On the other hand the Georgia GOP has never drawn the fractals drawn by the NC/TX/FL GOP or DEMs at the CD level. They drew reasonable compact districts that didn't destroy communities even if they still drew favorable maps that you can still call a gerrymander.

[lfromnj]

If you honestly think that is why the Democrats in then states do that. Then you are fooling yourself.

I’m not saying it’s the only reason. But it was definitely republicans that started the modern gerrymandering war with the old Texas, Louisiana, Florida maps of the 2000s & 2010s. Democrats also are playing in this, but we’re the ones trying to end it.

I think you are forgetting what Democrats did in NC for years. Republicans in NC at least are making maps that are too crazy

...back when the Democratic party in states like NC and TX was still led by white conservatives. You may not be aware that a decade ago, Republicans saw gerrymandering as a necessary tool to achieve power, while the people advocating for commissions and independent redistricting were Democrats. Good government and independent redistricting are liberal priorities. After Republicans used gerrymandering to lock up state legislatures and Congress, many liberals said Inks this, let's go for the jugular, too.

Some stuff

Firstly part of the ugliness of the maps was forced by HW Bush forcing VRA seats that made no sense like the I85 district. That doesn't mean that was the only reason but it was a major reason.


Secondly , I am pretty sure Cooper  was involved to some degree in the 1997 mid decade court redistricting.  It isn't like it was all white dinos. The NC democrats were a multi racial party
Brad Miller was redistricting  chair in 2000 and drew his future CD. He was one of the most progressive  members and called for banking reforms that went quite far.  Cal Cunningham won a quite gerrymandered district back in 2000 as well.

This isn't to make an argument but it is important to note  that NC was not exactly DINO.

Infact in Georgia during the 2001 redistricting  John Lewis testified in court to help uphold the gerrymandering Roy Barnes drew. However compared to NC basically all those white Democrats are non existent after the Georgia GOP gerrymandered them out replacing them mostly with black liberals. Some of this was kinda the safe route as Atlanta and inner ring black areas faced low growth and some seats had to be cut to the suburbs so they didnt want to have retrogression arguments.. On the other hand the Georgia GOP has never drawn the fractals drawn by the NC/TX/FL GOP or DEMs at the CD level. They drew reasonable compact districts that didn't destroy communities .

I get so tired of hearing about stuff that happened 30+ years ago determining if what's going on today is justified or right.  

It was wrong then, it's wrong now, end.

I wasn't arguing against that but it is important to note history and who did what.

Also I guess the GA GOP did get to draw the fractal 1992 map by working with Black Democrats.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/MurphinNC/status/1456317217142886406

She lives in North Mecklenburg and a few precincts had to go from Iredell .

Still ouch.

[lfromnj]

Guys guys, lets not forget the real tragedy by the NC GOP

They renumbered the districts


/s

[lfromnj]

Guys guys, lets not forget the real tragedy by the NC GOP

They renumbered the districts


/s

in the state House?

Nah congressional. They did it PA style East to West.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1456362618470416385

That Cabarrus seat is very close and trending rapidly D but the Robeson seat is the opposite. 11 is also trending rightwards for a while atleast.


A fair map would definitely fix that NE cluster.

Democrats complained a bit about the Wake/Meck swing seats but not sure why the GOP would just gift seats away when you can still draw reasonable seats that are swing instead of Safe D.
They also wanted 11 and 4 to be VRA compliant by breaking the county cluster to make one Safe D and Safe R instead of tossup and Likely R.

Fayetteville is awkward of course but that was known.

County clusters aren't always great for communities but it does restrict any extreme gerrymandering. The GOP mostly maximized their map other than Wilmington where for some reason they didn't.

So mostly just means the GOP did what it could to increase its seats but they were heavily limited.

The state house has quite a few indisputable gerrymanders like the Gastonia and Cabarrus's splits