North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[Torie]

Another potential NC map. This one is labelled CST-13.



There are 10 R seats to 4 D seats.

I think this is a very skillful Pubmander, or at least one in the style I would have drawn. It minimizes county chops and erosity to the extent reasonably possible without materially degrading  efficacy, avoids VRA risk (the Butterfield district is not a Gingles CD, and in fact is a Dem pack CD, sort of, to leave adjacent CD’s Pub safer – sorry Wasserman), and packs Charlotte and the Research Triangle, while neutralizing the Dem nodes of Asheville, Winston-Salam, and Greensboro.

[lfromnj]

Another potential NC map. This one is labelled CST-13.



There are 10 R seats to 4 D seats.

I think this is a very skillful Pubmander, or at least one in the style I would have drawn. It minimizes county chops and erosity to the extent reasonably possible without materially degrading  efficacy, avoids VRA risk (the Butterfield district is not a Gingles CD, and in fact is a Dem pack CD, sort of, to leave adjacent CD’s Pub safer – sorry Wasserman), and packs Charlotte and the Research Triangle, while neutralizing the Dem nodes of Asheville, Winston-Salam, and Goldsboro.

Well it doesn't really neutralize Asheville but actually helps make that district probably in the competitive range. Also you mean Greensboro? Goldsboro is in Wayne County. The actual city leans D but the county was Trump +10.

[Torie]

Thanks for catching the erratum. Trump 2020 won the far west CD by 7.4%, and the partisan spoils I think in the western part of the state, and indeed statewide, were skillfully divided. The district to the east that goes into the Charlotte burbs was Pubbed up a bit with a pad to anticipate future Pub headwinds there. In other words, the Asheville CD was probably deliberately made a bit marginal to minimize dummymander potential. And thus it took in most of Watauga County that leans Dem (albeit also adding the small heavily Pub county en route) in order to give the CD that runs along the northern border all the way to Greensboro a materially longer Pub half life, and the rest of the Asheville action to protect the CD that runs into the Charlotte maelstrom for the Pubs that in due time will probably flip the state as it segues into the next Atlanta-like metro for the Dems. This assumes of course that the Pubs move along in their current psephological death spiral without a course correction. But that can't happen until Trump is de-fanged, if then.

[lfromnj]

Thanks for catching the erratum. Trump 2020 won the far west CD by 7.4%, and the partisan spoils I think in the western part of the state, and indeed statewide, were skillfully divided. The district to the east that goes into the Charlotte burbs was Pubbed up a bit with a pad to anticipate future Pub headwinds there. In other words, the Asheville CD was probably deliberately made a bit marginal to minimize dummymander potential. And thus it took in most of Watauga County that leans Dem (albeit also adding the small heavily Pub county en route) in order to give the CD that runs along the northern border all the way to Greensboro a materially longer Pub half life, and the rest of the Asheville action to protect the CD that runs into the Charlotte maelstrom for the Pubs that in due time will probably flip the state as it segues into the next Atlanta-like metro for the Dems. This assumes of course that the Pubs move along in their current psephological death spiral without a course correction. But that can't happen until Trump is de-fanged, if then.

That district is made for Speaker Tim Moore. That is why he gets the safest district in the state. I guess Cawthorn is just annoying punk to the party so they don't care about him.

IMO the Greensboro and the Charlotte district could definitely distribute those margins to "shore up" NC11 but they don't really care enough to shore up Cawthorn.

[Torie]

Thanks for catching the erratum. Trump 2020 won the far west CD by 7.4%, and the partisan spoils I think in the western part of the state, and indeed statewide, were skillfully divided. The district to the east that goes into the Charlotte burbs was Pubbed up a bit with a pad to anticipate future Pub headwinds there. In other words, the Asheville CD was probably deliberately made a bit marginal to minimize dummymander potential. And thus it took in most of Watauga County that leans Dem (albeit also adding the small heavily Pub county en route) in order to give the CD that runs along the northern border all the way to Greensboro a materially longer Pub half life, and the rest of the Asheville action to protect the CD that runs into the Charlotte maelstrom for the Pubs that in due time will probably flip the state as it segues into the next Atlanta-like metro for the Dems. This assumes of course that the Pubs move along in their current psephological death spiral without a course correction. But that can't happen until Trump is de-fanged, if then.

That district is made for Speaker Tim Moore. That is why he gets the safest district in the state. I guess Cawthorn is just annoying punk to the party so they don't care about him.

IMO the Greensboro and the Charlotte district could definitely distribute those margins to "shore up" NC11 but they don't really care enough to shore up Cawthorn.

Well that is another interpretation, but I stand by my natterings anyway made without understanding who was doing what to whom among the lean and hungry ones. Maybe Moore's narcissism just happened to serve Pub long term interests best. You sound so bitter and cynical. Of course that emotion set fits the times. Sad.

[lfromnj]

Thanks for catching the erratum. Trump 2020 won the far west CD by 7.4%, and the partisan spoils I think in the western part of the state, and indeed statewide, were skillfully divided. The district to the east that goes into the Charlotte burbs was Pubbed up a bit with a pad to anticipate future Pub headwinds there. In other words, the Asheville CD was probably deliberately made a bit marginal to minimize dummymander potential. And thus it took in most of Watauga County that leans Dem (albeit also adding the small heavily Pub county en route) in order to give the CD that runs along the northern border all the way to Greensboro a materially longer Pub half life, and the rest of the Asheville action to protect the CD that runs into the Charlotte maelstrom for the Pubs that in due time will probably flip the state as it segues into the next Atlanta-like metro for the Dems. This assumes of course that the Pubs move along in their current psephological death spiral without a course correction. But that can't happen until Trump is de-fanged, if then.

That district is made for Speaker Tim Moore. That is why he gets the safest district in the state. I guess Cawthorn is just annoying punk to the party so they don't care about him.

IMO the Greensboro and the Charlotte district could definitely distribute those margins to "shore up" NC11 but they don't really care enough to shore up Cawthorn.

Well that is another interpretation, but I stand by my natterings anyway made without understanding who was doing what to whom among the lean and hungry ones. Maybe Moore's narcissism just happened to serve Pub long term interests best. You sound so bitter and cynical. Of course that emotion set fits the times. Sad.

?

I am just pointing out what happened and how it isn't maximally efficient in the West. It is pretty similar to IL 17th in that it wasn't maxed out.  However it still is very much efficient and compared to IL 17th there seem to be more serious incumbent demands to worry about compared to a young punk.

[Torie]

Thanks for catching the erratum. Trump 2020 won the far west CD by 7.4%, and the partisan spoils I think in the western part of the state, and indeed statewide, were skillfully divided. The district to the east that goes into the Charlotte burbs was Pubbed up a bit with a pad to anticipate future Pub headwinds there. In other words, the Asheville CD was probably deliberately made a bit marginal to minimize dummymander potential. And thus it took in most of Watauga County that leans Dem (albeit also adding the small heavily Pub county en route) in order to give the CD that runs along the northern border all the way to Greensboro a materially longer Pub half life, and the rest of the Asheville action to protect the CD that runs into the Charlotte maelstrom for the Pubs that in due time will probably flip the state as it segues into the next Atlanta-like metro for the Dems. This assumes of course that the Pubs move along in their current psephological death spiral without a course correction. But that can't happen until Trump is de-fanged, if then.

That district is made for Speaker Tim Moore. That is why he gets the safest district in the state. I guess Cawthorn is just annoying punk to the party so they don't care about him.

IMO the Greensboro and the Charlotte district could definitely distribute those margins to "shore up" NC11 but they don't really care enough to shore up Cawthorn.

Well that is another interpretation, but I stand by my natterings anyway made without understanding who was doing what to whom among the lean and hungry ones. Maybe Moore's narcissism just happened to serve Pub long term interests best. You sound so bitter and cynical. Of course that emotion set fits the times. Sad.

?

I am just pointing out what happened and how it isn't maximally efficient in the West. It is pretty similar to IL 17th in that it wasn't maxed out.  However it still is very much efficient and compared to IL 17th there seem to be more serious incumbent demands to worry about compared to a young punk.

No problem.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/will_doran/status/1455169324935786505

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/will_doran/status/1455169324935786505

So true. In fact, this is why the Democratic plan for Illinois is so beautiful. Instead of being packed in with a bunch of other rural areas to elect some no-name GOP backbencher, Danville is going to be represented by the chair of the most powerful party in Illinois! It's frankly an enormous leap in representation for these Illinoisans. Couldn't be more happy for them.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/will_doran/status/1455169324935786505

So true. In fact, this is why the Democratic plan for Illinois is so beautiful. Instead of being packed in with a bunch of other rural areas to elect some no-name GOP backbencher, Danville is going to be represented by the chair of the most powerful party in Illinois! It's frankly an enormous leap in representation for these Illinoisans. Couldn't be more happy for them.

LOL!, honestly its more funny that this exact same argument was used to draw the parallel senate seats from Jackson to Ann Arbor in Michigan.

So Democrats/Republicans/ and even commissions will say this stuff. #allsides.

[BoiseBoy]

The two maps still being considered are CST-13 and CBA-2. Both maps could be 10-4 or 9-5 in their partisan balance most likely. Butterfield would be in serious trouble in either map.

[lfromnj]

Also for some reason the NC GOP decided to split 1 precinct  into 3 districts?

Like why?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Also for some reason the NC GOP decided to split 1 precinct  into 3 districts?

Like why?

What was the size of the precinct in population?

[lfromnj]

Also for some reason the NC GOP decided to split 1 precinct  into 3 districts?

Like why?

What was the size of the precinct in population?

It is in Wake county, it looks really ugly down there for some reason. I guess it was just hard to get population equality?. I don't think any republican is from that area.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Also for some reason the NC GOP decided to split 1 precinct  into 3 districts?

Like why?

What was the size of the precinct in population?

It is in Wake county, it looks really ugly down there for some reason. I guess it was just hard to get population equality?. I don't think any republican is from that area.

That sounds most likely.
Wake has some pretty big precincts too iirc.
I asked because precinct splitting twice looks much better on a 10k precinct as opposed to a 2k one.

[lfromnj]

Also for some reason the NC GOP decided to split 1 precinct  into 3 districts?

Like why?

What was the size of the precinct in population?

It is in Wake county, it looks really ugly down there for some reason. I guess it was just hard to get population equality?. I don't think any republican is from that area.

That sounds most likely.
Wake has some pretty big precincts too iirc.
I asked because precinct splitting twice looks much better on a 10k precinct as opposed to a 2k one.

Yeah if the map somehow stands in time it will probably be the earmuffs all over again as it looks nasty at a close up.(Aka a whole map that is gerrymandered but the focus will be on the wrong area)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Also for some reason the NC GOP decided to split 1 precinct  into 3 districts?

Like why?

What was the size of the precinct in population?

It is in Wake county, it looks really ugly down there for some reason. I guess it was just hard to get population equality?. I don't think any republican is from that area.

That sounds most likely.
Wake has some pretty big precincts too iirc.
I asked because precinct splitting twice looks much better on a 10k precinct as opposed to a 2k one.

Yeah if the map somehow stands in time it will probably be the earmuffs all over again as it looks nasty at a close up.(Aka a whole map that is gerrymandered but the focus will be on the wrong area)

At least its not as gerrymandered as the 2013-2018 map.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/EveryVoiceNC/status/1455250780966072322

Any idea Sol or is it just population equality? When making my wake senate districts I had this issue as well because all of them are like -4.9% so you have to be very careful.

Obviously the Wake triple split is part of the issue but it isn't the main thing

[Sol]

The wonky lines in Wake are a silly attempt to follow municipal lines, presumably to avoid complaints about splitting towns.

[lfromnj]

The wonky lines in Wake are a silly attempt to follow municipal lines, presumably to avoid complaints about splitting towns.

Wow looks horrific but NC city lines in general are horrific. How important are they anyway with regards to local government?

I mean I try to keep them together but I think that many precinct splits probably adds too much cost?

[Sol]

yeah not worth it imo

[lfromnj]

Also I just realized that Bishop won't be living in NC09 anymore. Interesting.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/lekhashupeck/status/1455548752526258176

Senate district committee meeting today.  Harder to attack anything specific compared to the congressional map besides that cluster in the NE which obviously is pretty bs.

I still don't know what their goal is regarding the supreme court. Like the state senate map should pass scrutiny by even them other than that NE cluster but congressional is a big question.

[Torie]

I was wondering if NC-02 could be drawn in a way that got if over 50% BCVAP, thus potentially triggering Gingles if deemed compact. The answer is yes, barely, with a lot of contortions. The odds that a federal court deems it compact enough to trigger Gingles is probably fairly low, but if triggered, the issue is then whether a 2% Biden margin CD is deemed a black performing CD. Perhaps, since the black incumbent would have run way ahead of that, but it is a close call. So there is some VRA risk with the Butterfield CD, but if called on it by a court, it can with another chop or two, be made more Dem, so it probably is not an imprudent Pub risk to take.

[lfromnj]

I was wondering if NC-02 could be drawn in a way that got if over 50% BCVAP, thus potentially triggering Gingles if deemed compact. The answer is yes, barely, with a lot of contortions. The odds that a federal court deems it compact enough to trigger Gingles is probably fairly low, but if triggered, the issue is then whether a 2% Biden margin CD is deemed a black performing CD. Perhaps, since the black incumbent would have run way ahead of that, but it is a close call. So there is some VRA risk with the Butterfield CD, but if called on it by a court, it can with another chop or two, be made more Dem, so it probably is not an imprudent Pub risk to take.

Butterfield actually ran behind Biden by 0.1%. He faced a C/B tier candidate just like  Vicente Gonzalez did instead of the regular no namer. A lot of incumbent overperformances are fairly paper thin.