MN-07: Fischbach in

[IceSpear]

I said this was safe R the day after the midterms despite countless Atlas posters insisting otherwise and I cannot wait for my vindication.

And that was a silly prediction.  You didn’t have enough information to reasonably base that guess on to make it accolade-worthy.

1) District is trending hard and fast to the right
2) Polarization increases more and more every year, even Klobuchar only won the district by 0.1% and Smith/Walz got crushed there
3) Trump will be on the ballot and once again win the district by at minimum 20+ points
4) Peterson won by a narrow margin last year, doing worse than he did in 2016 against the same opponent despite the NRCC giving him a free pass and the nation as a whole swinging double digits Democratic
5) Unless the NRCC is the most incompetent organization on the planet, they would have to target him this time since it is obviously a seat they need to pick up in order to take back the House

I'd say that's more than enough info.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2019/09/03/fischbach-says-she-will-back-trump-on-trade-other-issues

You guys sure you wanna rate this as Safe Republican?

I'm sure the district that Trump won by 30 is going to swing hard left because of muh trade issues

Last year some democrats on Twitter thought that Heitkamp would be reelected because of the ''Trade War''.

Yeah, some people on this website just have a hard time accepting the fact that hordes of voters vote against their interests and will continue to do so. Look no further than Appalachia or specifically Kentucky.

[LiberalDem19]

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2019/09/03/fischbach-says-she-will-back-trump-on-trade-other-issues

You guys sure you wanna rate this as Safe Republican?

I'm sure the district that Trump won by 30 is going to swing hard left because of muh trade issues

Last year some democrats on Twitter thought that Heitkamp would be reelected because of the ''Trade War''.

Yeah, some people on this website just have a hard time accepting the fact that hordes of voters vote against their interests and will continue to do so. Look no further than Appalachia or specifically Kentucky.

I'm not saying Fischbach won't win, but it seems dumb to say this is Safe GOP when there's an incumbent Dem who's won 14 terms. Not only that, but he's proven he can win a sizeable chunk of Trump supporters, since he outran the top of the ticket by 36 points in 2016.

[IceSpear]

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2019/09/03/fischbach-says-she-will-back-trump-on-trade-other-issues

You guys sure you wanna rate this as Safe Republican?

I'm sure the district that Trump won by 30 is going to swing hard left because of muh trade issues

Last year some democrats on Twitter thought that Heitkamp would be reelected because of the ''Trade War''.

Yeah, some people on this website just have a hard time accepting the fact that hordes of voters vote against their interests and will continue to do so. Look no further than Appalachia or specifically Kentucky.

I'm not saying Fischbach won't win, but it seems dumb to say this is Safe GOP when there's an incumbent Dem who's won 14 terms. Not only that, but he's proven he can win a sizeable chunk of Trump supporters, since he outran the top of the ticket by 36 points in 2016.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I said this was safe R the day after the midterms despite countless Atlas posters insisting otherwise and I cannot wait for my vindication.

And that was a silly prediction.  You didn’t have enough information to reasonably base that guess on to make it accolade-worthy.

1) District is trending hard and fast to the right
2) Polarization increases more and more every year, even Klobuchar only won the district by 0.1% and Smith/Walz got crushed there
3) Trump will be on the ballot and once again win the district by at minimum 20+ points
4) Peterson won by a narrow margin last year, doing worse than he did in 2016 against the same opponent despite the NRCC giving him a free pass and the nation as a whole swinging double digits Democratic
5) Unless the NRCC is the most incompetent organization on the planet, they would have to target him this time since it is obviously a seat they need to pick up in order to take back the House

I'd say that's more than enough info.

1) This is a fair point.

2) Peterson regularly over-preforms to the point that I don't think this means much.

3) I could see Trump "only" winning here by 20% which is a 10% drop from 2016.  I think with a little luck and a decent environment, Peterson could survive that against a weak Republican like Dave Hughes.  However, it was unclear for a while whether the Republicans were going to be able to recruit a decent candidate for once or would simply be stuck with Hughes again.  I also think one could easily argue that Peterson was almost caught napping in 2016 and just lucked out that it didn't cost him the seat.

4) This is your best point and why Lean R has made sense for a while now even before we knew Fischbach was running. 

5) I dunno, the NRCC's consultants seem to be pretty dumb about these sorts of things.  Peterson's been given a pass by them since 2014  

Anyway, enough info to say Peterson was extremely vulnerable?  Absolutely.  Enough to start MN-7 at Lean R?  Certainly not an unreasonable prediction.  Enough to start it at Safe R the day after the 2018 midterm?  No, that's just a silly #HotTake.

[LiberalDem19]

I said this was safe R the day after the midterms despite countless Atlas posters insisting otherwise and I cannot wait for my vindication.

And that was a silly prediction.  You didn’t have enough information to reasonably base that guess on to make it accolade-worthy.

1) District is trending hard and fast to the right
2) Polarization increases more and more every year, even Klobuchar only won the district by 0.1% and Smith/Walz got crushed there
3) Trump will be on the ballot and once again win the district by at minimum 20+ points
4) Peterson won by a narrow margin last year, doing worse than he did in 2016 against the same opponent despite the NRCC giving him a free pass and the nation as a whole swinging double digits Democratic
5) Unless the NRCC is the most incompetent organization on the planet, they would have to target him this time since it is obviously a seat they need to pick up in order to take back the House

I'd say that's more than enough info.

1) This is a fair point.

2) Peterson regularly over-preforms to the point that I don't think this means much.

3) I could see Trump "only" winning here by 20% which is a 10% drop from 2016.  I think with a little luck and a decent environment, Peterson could survive that against a weak Republican like Dave Hughes.  However, it was unclear for a while whether the Republicans were going to be able to recruit a decent candidate for once or would simply be stuck with Hughes again.  I also think one could easily argue that Peterson was almost caught napping in 2016 and just lucked out that it didn't cost him the seat.

4) This is your best point and why Lean R has made sense for a while now even before we knew Fischbach was running. 

5) I dunno, the NRCC's consultants seem to be pretty dumb about these sorts of things.  Peterson's been given a pass by them since 2014  

Anyway, enough info to say Peterson was extremely vulnerable?  Absolutely.  Enough to start MN-7 at Lean R?  Certainly not an unreasonable prediction.  Enough to start it at Safe R the day after the 2018 midterm?  No, that's just a silly #HotTake.

He also overperformed Obama and Clinton by roughly the same margin in 2012 and 2016 (35 points and 34 points), and actually outperformed Tina Smith by more than he did Al Franken (19 points vs. 8 points), so there's not really much evidence that polarization is hurting him. The people splitting their tickets aren't all of a sudden voting straight line against him.

[Politician]

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2019/09/03/fischbach-says-she-will-back-trump-on-trade-other-issues

You guys sure you wanna rate this as Safe Republican?

I'm sure the district that Trump won by 30 is going to swing hard left because of muh trade issues

Last year some democrats on Twitter thought that Heitkamp would be reelected because of the ''Trade War''.

Yeah, some people on this website just have a hard time accepting the fact that hordes of voters vote against their interests and will continue to do so. Look no further than Appalachia or specifically Kentucky.

I'm not saying Fischbach won't win, but it seems dumb to say this is Safe GOP when there's an incumbent Dem who's won 14 terms. Not only that, but he's proven he can win a sizeable chunk of Trump supporters, since he outran the top of the ticket by 36 points in 2016.

*snip*

He literally would have won if 2010 was a Democratic wave.

[LiberalDem19]

https://kfgo.com/podcasts/news-views-with-joel-heitkamp/117905/michelle-fischbach-on-trump-trade-war-and-what-the-breakout-is-on-mfp-payments-i-dont-know-off-the-t/?fbclid=IwAR1uKAHgYyRqab_BejJsaTh9ucwiSnJyibFeSRnpA0yOBVJSD4OOQK695yg

Are y'all really sure that this race is Safe Republican when the leading GOP candidate doesn't even know what the price of soy is?

[DaWN]

https://kfgo.com/podcasts/news-views-with-joel-heitkamp/117905/michelle-fischbach-on-trump-trade-war-and-what-the-breakout-is-on-mfp-payments-i-dont-know-off-the-t/?fbclid=IwAR1uKAHgYyRqab_BejJsaTh9ucwiSnJyibFeSRnpA0yOBVJSD4OOQK695yg

Are y'all really sure that this race is Safe Republican when the leading GOP candidate doesn't even know what the price of soy is?

Yep, pretty bloody sure

[Politician]

This is a tossup race.

[LiberalDem19]

https://kfgo.com/podcasts/news-views-with-joel-heitkamp/117905/michelle-fischbach-on-trump-trade-war-and-what-the-breakout-is-on-mfp-payments-i-dont-know-off-the-t/?fbclid=IwAR1uKAHgYyRqab_BejJsaTh9ucwiSnJyibFeSRnpA0yOBVJSD4OOQK695yg

Are y'all really sure that this race is Safe Republican when the leading GOP candidate doesn't even know what the price of soy is?

Yep, pretty bloody sure

So, an agricultural district with a 14 term incumbent Dem who's also the chair of the ag committee is Safe Republican, not even Lean Republican, when the Republican doesn't know the answer to one of the most basic questions related to agriculture?

That's quite the bold take

[IceSpear]

https://kfgo.com/podcasts/news-views-with-joel-heitkamp/117905/michelle-fischbach-on-trump-trade-war-and-what-the-breakout-is-on-mfp-payments-i-dont-know-off-the-t/?fbclid=IwAR1uKAHgYyRqab_BejJsaTh9ucwiSnJyibFeSRnpA0yOBVJSD4OOQK695yg

Are y'all really sure that this race is Safe Republican when the leading GOP candidate doesn't even know what the price of soy is?

Yep, pretty bloody sure

So, an agricultural district with a 14 term incumbent Dem who's also the chair of the ag committee is Safe Republican, not even Lean Republican, when the Republican doesn't know the answer to one of the most basic questions related to agriculture?

That's quite the bold take

I have two questions:

1) Does Trump know any of the basic questions related to agriculture?
2) How do you think Trump will do in this district in 2020?

[LiberalDem19]

https://kfgo.com/podcasts/news-views-with-joel-heitkamp/117905/michelle-fischbach-on-trump-trade-war-and-what-the-breakout-is-on-mfp-payments-i-dont-know-off-the-t/?fbclid=IwAR1uKAHgYyRqab_BejJsaTh9ucwiSnJyibFeSRnpA0yOBVJSD4OOQK695yg

Are y'all really sure that this race is Safe Republican when the leading GOP candidate doesn't even know what the price of soy is?

Yep, pretty bloody sure

So, an agricultural district with a 14 term incumbent Dem who's also the chair of the ag committee is Safe Republican, not even Lean Republican, when the Republican doesn't know the answer to one of the most basic questions related to agriculture?

That's quite the bold take

I have two questions:

1) Does Trump know any of the basic questions related to agriculture?
2) How do you think Trump will do in this district in 2020?

1) Not much, but he'll be running against Biden, Harris, Warren or Bernie, all of whom Collin Peterson is a much better candidate than.
2) He'll win it, but not by 30 points. He'll probably get it by 20-25 points or so. And I can see Peterson doing 20-25 points better than the Presidential nominee.

Again, I am not disputing a Lean R rating. I'm disputing a Safe Republican rating. It's honestly madness that anyone would say that the district is Safe, given its history of voting in Peterson.

[Brittain33]

If Peterson loses, he'll land a pleasant ambassadorship under the next President.

[lfromnj]

TBH I am wondering what gets better for Peterson from 2018 to 2020?
The midterm bounceback generally should mostly fade away as Democrats aren't gonna hit the #Populist Walz or Smith's numbers in MN 7th which is about what the median Minnesota district was.
His opponent fundraiser a few thousand dollars in 2018, even with the incompetent NRCC Fischbach should fundraiser a few hundred thousand which is enough for something to attack Peterson over.
The year overall should be better for the GOP although it could be worse but thats unlikely.
The NRCC now has to focus on some offense now and they could be stupid but even the pundits are catching on and calling it a tossup. Then again they still want Texas 7th more than this.

Overall Peterson doesn't have much margin to lose and almost everything has to go right for him.

[politicallefty]

TBH I am wondering what gets better for Peterson from 2018 to 2020?

The one thing that's changed is that he's now Chairman of the Agriculture Committee, something he would have for another two years if reelected. That's not a small factor, especially in a district like that and when a lot of farmers are struggling. I'm not saying he'll win or lose. I think toss-up is absolutely the right rating when weighing all of the variables.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The NRCC now has to focus on some offense now and they could be stupid but even the pundits are catching on and calling it a tossup. Then again they still want Texas 7th more than this.

I said once before, the NRCC is always fighting the last war, with the map from three cycles ago.

I used the example of how they sank millions in the 1980's into going after seats in NYC and the Bay Area, while leaving rural seats completely uncontested that would cost only a few thousand to go after.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2019/09/03/fischbach-says-she-will-back-trump-on-trade-other-issues

You guys sure you wanna rate this as Safe Republican?

I'm sure the district that Trump won by 30 is going to swing hard left because of muh trade issues

Last year some democrats on Twitter thought that Heitkamp would be reelected because of the ''Trade War''.

Yeah, some people on this website just have a hard time accepting the fact that hordes of voters vote against their interests and will continue to do so. Look no further than Appalachia or specifically Kentucky.

I don't really see why rural voters would have any interest to vote for a party who despise them and who mock their values.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://kfgo.com/podcasts/news-views-with-joel-heitkamp/117905/michelle-fischbach-on-trump-trade-war-and-what-the-breakout-is-on-mfp-payments-i-dont-know-off-the-t/?fbclid=IwAR1uKAHgYyRqab_BejJsaTh9ucwiSnJyibFeSRnpA0yOBVJSD4OOQK695yg

Are y'all really sure that this race is Safe Republican when the leading GOP candidate doesn't even know what the price of soy is?

This guy is a democratic troll

[Frenchrepublican]

https://kfgo.com/podcasts/news-views-with-joel-heitkamp/117905/michelle-fischbach-on-trump-trade-war-and-what-the-breakout-is-on-mfp-payments-i-dont-know-off-the-t/?fbclid=IwAR1uKAHgYyRqab_BejJsaTh9ucwiSnJyibFeSRnpA0yOBVJSD4OOQK695yg

Are y'all really sure that this race is Safe Republican when the leading GOP candidate doesn't even know what the price of soy is?

Yep, pretty bloody sure

So, an agricultural district with a 14 term incumbent Dem who's also the chair of the ag committee is Safe Republican, not even Lean Republican, when the Republican doesn't know the answer to one of the most basic questions related to agriculture?

That's quite the bold take

I have two questions:

1) Does Trump know any of the basic questions related to agriculture?
2) How do you think Trump will do in this district in 2020?

1) Not much, but he'll be running against Biden, Harris, Warren or Bernie, all of whom Collin Peterson is a much better candidate than.
2) He'll win it, but not by 30 points. He'll probably get it by 20-25 points or so. And I can see Peterson doing 20-25 points better than the Presidential nominee.

Again, I am not disputing a Lean R rating. I'm disputing a Safe Republican rating. It's honestly madness that anyone would say that the district is Safe, given its history of voting in Peterson.

Trump won it 61/31 in 2016 and I doubt that this district will swing 10 points to the left, there are very few white college suburban voters, you don't have a lot of minorities voters, the district swung hard to the right when compared to 2014 in both the MN SEN race and the MN GOV race. Trump will likely win it 63 or 64% of the vote in MN-7.

[Frenchrepublican]

The NRCC now has to focus on some offense now and they could be stupid but even the pundits are catching on and calling it a tossup. Then again they still want Texas 7th more than this.

I said once before, the NRCC is always fighting the last war, with the map from three cycles ago.

I used the example of how they sank millions in the 1980's into going after seats in NYC and the Bay Area, while leaving rural seats completely uncontested that would cost only a few thousand to go after.

The NRCC and the NRSC are a bit like the french military staff of the late 1930's.

[Frenchrepublican]

Anyway this district is neither Safe R nor Likely/Lean D (I'm looking at you Charlie Cook), but it's clear that Peterson is in for a difficult fight ahead, the fact that Fischach is running means that Republicans have now decided to target him (contrary to 2016 and 2018) and it's clear that MN-7 is thus the most likely seat to flip next year. As of now I would rate it Lean R.

[HarrisonL]

Also of note, Sabato now has this as a Toss-Up. Cook still has it as a Lean D, though.

Cook is stupid if we haven't already realised this.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1169960545149247494

Cook moved it to tossup yesterday, Technically its Wasserman.

Wasserman is decent overall tbh.

[MT Treasurer]

The NRCC now has to focus on some offense now and they could be stupid but even the pundits are catching on and calling it a tossup. Then again they still want Texas 7th more than this.

I said once before, the NRCC is always fighting the last war, with the map from three cycles ago.

I used the example of how they sank millions in the 1980's into going after seats in NYC and the Bay Area, while leaving rural seats completely uncontested that would cost only a few thousand to go after.

The NRCC and the NRSC are a bit like the french military staff of the late 1930's.

LOL

At least we now know the constant which even the most dramatic realignments just can’t change: Republican incompetence.