MN-07: Fischbach in

[MT Treasurer]

How about this, it's not "Safe R" nor is it "toss-up at worst" for Petersen. Those are two extreme characterizations.

Yeah, the overreactions in this thread are silly. Peterson is probably the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent after Jones, but I don’t think the race will be a slam dunk for Republicans.

[HarrisonL]

Lean R, Peterson is done

[Young Conservative]

Lean R.

[Tekken_Guy]

She'd absolutely win a general.

Problem is, she has to get through a primary first.

One thing to point out is that the Pawlenty-Fischbach ticket failed to carry the Fischbach senate district in the primary.

I don't think she's the inevitable nominee, but if the GOP is smart, they'll nominate her over Hughes.

And Hughes isn't just some nobody at this point that the GOP pulled off the street.

She will easily win the primary.

[Tekken_Guy]

Also of note, Sabato now has this as a Toss-Up. Cook still has it as a Lean D, though.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

One term congresswoman at best, unless she actually thinks she can take down Tom Emmer in a primary.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Well Ben McAdams will likely hold the most Republican district to be represented by a Democrat come Jan 2021!

He already does. R+13 is more Republican than R+12.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

How about this, it's not "Safe R" nor is it "toss-up at worst" for Petersen. Those are two extreme characterizations.

Peterson is probably the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent after Jones.

Doug Jones could end up facing against a really weak opponent if he is lucky, and certainly not a really strong opponent. I would say that Peterson is more vulnerable.

[Pandaguineapig]

How about this, it's not "Safe R" nor is it "toss-up at worst" for Petersen. Those are two extreme characterizations.

Peterson is probably the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent after Jones.

Doug Jones could end up facing against a really weak opponent if he is lucky, and certainly not a really strong opponent. I would say that Peterson is more vulnerable.

Most polls show Roy Moore failing to make a runoff, much less win it. Byrne and Tuberville may not be electoral Titans, but they are inoffensive enough to beat Jones by double-digits

[Yellowhammer]

Peterson is finished.

[libertpaulian]

Likely R under current conditions.

Tossup under a recession and if the trade war's chickens come home to roost.

[IceSpear]

I said this was safe R the day after the midterms despite countless Atlas posters insisting otherwise and I cannot wait for my vindication.

[IceSpear]

Safe R

Damn, you know you're in bad shape when you're a Democrat and even Solid is writing your obituary for an ostensibly D+14 year.

[freepcrusher]

How about this, it's not "Safe R" nor is it "toss-up at worst" for Petersen. Those are two extreme characterizations.

Peterson should retire. To me that's waving goodbye with one finger in the air which I think is a cool thing to do.

[Pericles]

Safe R

Damn, you know you're in bad shape when you're a Democrat and even Solid is writing your obituary for an ostensibly D+14 year.

Tbf Solid I think occasionally underestimates Democrats, I think he had UT-04 as Safe R until right before the 2018 midterms, but yeah this race doesn't look good for Peterson.

[TWTown]

Tossup, Collin isn't going out that easily LOL

[Devout Centrist]

She'll be a formidable foe if she wins the primary

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I said this was safe R the day after the midterms despite countless Atlas posters insisting otherwise and I cannot wait for my vindication.

And that was a silly prediction.  You didn’t have enough information to reasonably base that guess on to make it accolade-worthy.

[LiberalDem19]

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2019/09/03/fischbach-says-she-will-back-trump-on-trade-other-issues

You guys sure you wanna rate this as Safe Republican?

[Young Conservative]

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2019/09/03/fischbach-says-she-will-back-trump-on-trade-other-issues

You guys sure you wanna rate this as Safe Republican?

I'm sure the district that Trump won by 30 is going to swing hard left because of muh trade issues

[lfromnj]

I said this was safe R the day after the midterms despite countless Atlas posters insisting otherwise and I cannot wait for my vindication.

And that was a silly prediction.  You didn’t have enough information to reasonably base that guess on to make it accolade-worthy.

He said he won by less than 2016 against a no namer opponent with no funding while 2 other less Republican MN districts flipped GOP. It was definetely a hot take in November but it looks reasonable now although I don't fully agree with it yet.

And since Alabama 2017 Icespear has been pretty decent with his predictions, he did call WV for Fat Pat but he said +3 Pat instead of the double digit Manchin wins so it wasn't unreasonable. Overall Icespear is probably one of the best predictors on this forum even if he may be a bit over aggressive in some ratings.

[DaWN]

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2019/09/03/fischbach-says-she-will-back-trump-on-trade-other-issues

You guys sure you wanna rate this as Safe Republican?

Yep, pretty sure

[LiberalDem19]

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2019/09/03/fischbach-says-she-will-back-trump-on-trade-other-issues

You guys sure you wanna rate this as Safe Republican?

I'm sure the district that Trump won by 30 is going to swing hard left because of muh trade issues

Okay, but i'd be hard pressed to rate this as Safe R when it's an agricultural district and the Republican wants to continue the current trade policies that are hurting farmers. Toss Up is a fair rating. Also Fischbach's planning on abiding by the party endorsement, and those delegates might go with Hughes. They always endorse the furthest right candidate at the endorsing conventions.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2019/09/03/fischbach-says-she-will-back-trump-on-trade-other-issues

You guys sure you wanna rate this as Safe Republican?

I'm sure the district that Trump won by 30 is going to swing hard left because of muh trade issues

Last year some democrats on Twitter thought that Heitkamp would be reelected because of the ''Trade War''.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2019/09/03/fischbach-says-she-will-back-trump-on-trade-other-issues

You guys sure you wanna rate this as Safe Republican?

I'm sure the district that Trump won by 30 is going to swing hard left because of muh trade issues

Okay, but i'd be hard pressed to rate this as Safe R when it's an agricultural district and the Republican wants to continue the current trade policies that are hurting farmers. Toss Up is a fair rating. Also Fischbach's planning on abiding by the party endorsement, and those delegates might go with Hughes. They always endorse the furthest right candidate at the endorsing conventions.

A few months ago the Farm Pulse Journal polled 2000 farmers ; Trump had a 78% approval rate.