MA-SEN Megathread: Senator Markey wins

[redjohn]

Early call but never too early for a new signature!

Those who rely solely on past election results to predict future elections are doomed to be wrong. Same vibes as "such-and-such state hasn't voted for [insert party] since 1980"

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Early call but never too early for a new signature!

To Millenial Moderate:

[Not Me, Us]

I really hope this isn't a "Dewey Wins" scenario.

[KaiserDave]

Markey SURGE. 17% lead on NYT.

I think he's got it folks!

[MillennialModerate]

Why is Kennedy doing so well in minority areas? Is it perhaps nostalgia for his grandfather, who was beloved by black voters? Or his recent appeals to those voters on racial justice issues?

Maybe because Markey opposed desegregation of Boston schools? Just a thought

[LabourJersey]

I really hope this isn't a "Dewey Wins" scenario.

That would be the kind of scenario that 2020 loves serving up

[Roronoa D. Law]

Why is Kennedy doing so well in minority areas? Is it perhaps nostalgia for his grandfather, who was beloved by black voters? Or his recent appeals to those voters on racial justice issues?

Nostalgia, every black grandparent had a picture of MLK and JFK in their house. My parents did too in our first house. 

[Brittain33]

Markey SURGE. 17% lead on NYT.

I think he's got it folks!

That was Somerville coming in for 19,000 for Markey, less than 5,000 for Kennedy.

[Gracile]

Seen on Twitter: Markey won a precinct in Somerville, 349-101, and a precinct in Allston-Brighton with 80%.

Not surprising, Allston-Brighton is a part of Boston that fits right into the kind of place Markey would do well in (large young progressive population/large Sanders-Warren constituency in the presidential primary)-

https://twitter.com/tylercreighton/status/1300956671318077440

[Oryxslayer]

All of Somerville reported in 80-20 Markey. It's his student stronghold north of Boston. 15K votes to his column, which is why the race suddenly left the margins.

[W]

Massive Markey vote dump from the west of the state on DDHQ. 52-47.

I don't wanna jump the gun, but the prognosis is Markey has it by 4-7 points for me.

[Calthrina950]

Why is Kennedy doing so well in minority areas? Is it perhaps nostalgia for his grandfather, who was beloved by black voters? Or his recent appeals to those voters on racial justice issues?

Nostalgia, every black grandparent had a picture of MLK and JFK in their house. My parents did too in our first house. 

This makes perfect sense. I recall watching an American Experience documentary on RFK some months ago, and they discussed how black voters absolutely adored him, and strongly supported him in the 1968 Democratic primaries before he was assassinated.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Massive Markey vote dump from the west of the state on DDHQ. 52-47.

I don't wanna jump the gun, but the prognosis is Markey has it by 4-7 points for me.

Way more than that. Markey to win by over 10 points is at 90 cents on PredictIt now. Unless Kennedy has some surprising areas of mega support we haven't seen yet that seems like a safe bet.

[KaiserDave]

Yikes. JKIII losing Orleans on the cape.

[Gracile]

Huge if true:

https://twitter.com/stephanie_murr/status/1300963745611616259

[redjohn]

Yeah, seems like the race may be over and it might not end up being very close. Good for Markey, and thank God for another blow to dynastic politics in the United States.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1300962808801132547

https://twitter.com/BenJ_Rosenblatt/status/1300964369405181953?s=20

I liked Wasserman in 2018 but ever since he started making more hot takes than predictions and analysis he has turned me off. Now I actually want Kennedy to win because it would teach Wasserman to not fly too close to the sun.

end of rant

[Mike88]

I am by no means an expert in Mass. politics, but is Springfield supposed to be going to Kennedy by this much?

I'm surprised how much of a lead he has in Fall River

White catholic ethnics going for a Kennedy?

Yep, plus probably name recognition, he's a Kennedy after all.

But, yeah, Markey will probably win this by 54-46%.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Its amazing how much these results are correlated by income. Newton is one of the richest towns in MA and Springfield is one of the poorest.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Just so we're all clear, basically 100% of Markey's lead is from the Somerville vote dump and it's very, very early in the night. We haven't seen anything from Boston, Quincy, Braintree, etc yet.

[Big Abraham]

I wonder how Kennedy would have fared if he had tried to primary Warren instead

[KaiserDave]

This is over, I think.

[Roll Roons]

I wonder how Kennedy would have fared if he had tried to primary Warren instead

Probably worse.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Why is Kennedy doing so well in minority areas? Is it perhaps nostalgia for his grandfather, who was beloved by black voters? Or his recent appeals to those voters on racial justice issues?

Maybe because Markey opposed desegregation of Boston schools? Just a thought

Cry more and then vote Markey this November )

[Gracile]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1300962808801132547

https://twitter.com/BenJ_Rosenblatt/status/1300964369405181953?s=20

I liked Wasserman in 2018 but ever since he started making more hot takes than predictions and analysis he has turned me off. Now I actually want Kennedy to win because it would teach Wasserman to not fly too close to the sun.

end of rant

He was trying his "Whole Foods" shtick again tonight - which is far worse than any of his forecasts where he's "seen enough" (which are usually fairly accurate, mind you).