Rate Oakland County MI for 2020?

[SN2903]

2016: Clinton - 51.3% Trump 43.2%
2012: Obama - 53.4% Romney 45.4%
2008: Obama - 56.4% McCain 42.0%
2004: Kerry - 49.8% Bush 49.3%
2000: Gore - 49.3% Bush 48.1%
1996: Clinton carried the county
1992: Bush carried the county
1988: Bush carried the county
1984: Reagan carried the county
1980: Reagan carried the county
1976: Ford carried the county
1972: Nixon carried the county
1968: Nixon carried the county
1964: Johnson carried the county
1960: Nixon carried the county

[Alben Barkley]

Is there something special about this county that's supposed to make me think that, because even as the rest of the state trended ten points toward the GOP it only trended two points toward the GOP didn't trend toward the GOP at all (Hillary lost 2 points from Obama but Trump lost two points from Romney, so still D +8), it will somehow be more competitive next time?

I think it's pretty obvious that Trump will only have a chance in this county if he somehow wins Michigan BIG next time, which is not likely.

Likely D. Hell, Safe D, but that wasn't an option.

[SN2903]

Is there something special about this county that's supposed to make me think that, because even as the rest of the state trended ten points toward the GOP it only trended two points toward the GOP didn't trend toward the GOP at all (Hillary lost 2 points from Obama but Trump lost two points from Romney, so still D +8), it will somehow be more competitive next time?

I think it's pretty obvious that Trump will only have a chance in this county if he somehow wins Michigan BIG next time, which is not likely.

Likely D. Hell, Safe D, but that wasn't an option.

No way it is safe D. Trump will probably do worse in Macomb in 20 than 16 and better in Oakland than 16. I think he wins Macomb by about 6 next time instead of 9 and loses Oakland by 4-5 instead of 8.

[Gass3268]

Oakland County is a core Democratic County now, Safe Democrat.

[SN2903]

Oakland County is a core Democratic County now, Safe Democrat.

We will see about that esp. if the democrats nominate a left wing candidate.

[Alben Barkley]

Is there something special about this county that's supposed to make me think that, because even as the rest of the state trended ten points toward the GOP it only trended two points toward the GOP didn't trend toward the GOP at all (Hillary lost 2 points from Obama but Trump lost two points from Romney, so still D +8), it will somehow be more competitive next time?

I think it's pretty obvious that Trump will only have a chance in this county if he somehow wins Michigan BIG next time, which is not likely.

Likely D. Hell, Safe D, but that wasn't an option.

No way it is safe D. Trump will probably do worse in Macomb in 20 than 16 and better in Oakland than 16. I think he wins Macomb by about 6 next time instead of 9 and loses Oakland by 4-5 instead of 8.

Again, WHY?

"No way" is not an explanation. I asked if there is something particular about this county to make you think it is more likely to trend R this time than last time, when it didn't trend R at all even as the rest of the state did massively. I was serious. If there is such a thing, please explain it to me. I don't know much about the make-up of this county, but based on those numbers alone I see no reason to believe it will not be safe D.

[Xing]

Barring a landslide, Trump isn't going to come close to carrying this county.

[ON Progressive]

This is Safe D, yeah.

[morgieb]

No Safe D? Hack poll.

[Politician]

Where's the Safe D option? Trump isn't going to win a county he lost by 10 last time.

[SingingAnalyst]

Likely D. Biden/Harris 54, Trump 44.

The county is becoming more socially liberal with each election cycle. This may be the first time at least since pre-FDR days that Oakland votes to the left of Genesee (Flint).

[Politician]

Likely D. Biden/Harris 54, Trump 44.

The county is becoming more socially liberal with each election cycle. This may be the first time at least since pre-FDR days that Oakland votes to the left of Genesee (Flint).

It already did in 2016.

[Frenchrepublican]

Safe D

Biden wins it 56/43

[SingingAnalyst]

Is there something special about this county that's supposed to make me think that, because even as the rest of the state trended ten points toward the GOP it only trended two points toward the GOP didn't trend toward the GOP at all (Hillary lost 2 points from Obama but Trump lost two points from Romney, so still D +8), it will somehow be more competitive next time?

I think it's pretty obvious that Trump will only have a chance in this county if he somehow wins Michigan BIG next time, which is not likely.

Likely D. Hell, Safe D, but that wasn't an option.

I agree, likely D.

Nothing special about the county unless you live in Michigan's (Detroit) tri-county area (Wayne-Oakland-Macomb). Oakland County was staunchly Republican at all levels until well into the 1990s; only beginning in 2008 have county-level Dems had a chance (and in some cases, won). The county is highly educated and a bad fit for Trump, and especially along the Woodward corridor between Detroit and Pontiac, has become pretty liberal socially.

Macomb is just the opposite: one of the most heavily Catholic and blue collar counties in the nation, for a while it was the only county in the top 60 without a university. Until 1994 the County Commission was virtually all Democrats; at the Federal level in 1982, the GOP didn't even bother to field a candidate against Democratic Reps. Dennis Hertel and David Bonior, both of whom were anti-abortion. As the population center has moved further from 8 Mile Road, north of M-59 especially, the county has grown more Republican and stayed pretty conservative.

[SingingAnalyst]

2016: Clinton - 51.3% Trump 43.2%
2012: Obama - 53.4% Romney 45.4%
2008: Obama - 56.4% McCain 42.0%
2004: Kerry - 49.8% Bush 49.3%
2000: Gore - 49.3% Bush 48.1%
1996: Clinton carried the county 47.9 - 43.5
1992: Bush carried the county 38.6 - 43.6
1988: Bush carried the county 37.8 - 61.3
1984: Reagan carried the county 32.8 - 66.7
1980: Reagan carried the county 35.6 - 54.7
1976: Ford carried the county 39.5 - 58.7
1972: Nixon carried the county 34.2 - 63.8
1968: Nixon carried the county 44.8 - 45.3
1964: Johnson carried the county 61.5 - 38.3
1960: Nixon carried the county 45.4 - 54.3

Not nearly as swingy as Macomb, and the trend is clear.

[Woody]

Safe D

Biden wins it 56/43

This is Safe D, yeah.

Oakland County is a core Democratic County now, Safe Democrat.

Is there something special about this county that's supposed to make me think that, because even as the rest of the state trended ten points toward the GOP it only trended two points toward the GOP didn't trend toward the GOP at all (Hillary lost 2 points from Obama but Trump lost two points from Romney, so still D +8), it will somehow be more competitive next time?

I think it's pretty obvious that Trump will only have a chance in this county if he somehow wins Michigan BIG next time, which is not likely.

Likely D. Hell, Safe D, but that wasn't an option.

Atlas hacks:
Macomb county (Trump +11)= Lean R/Tilt R
Oakland county (Clinton +8) = Safe D ?? ??

[Politician]

Safe D

Biden wins it 56/43

This is Safe D, yeah.

Oakland County is a core Democratic County now, Safe Democrat.

Is there something special about this county that's supposed to make me think that, because even as the rest of the state trended ten points toward the GOP it only trended two points toward the GOP didn't trend toward the GOP at all (Hillary lost 2 points from Obama but Trump lost two points from Romney, so still D +8), it will somehow be more competitive next time?

I think it's pretty obvious that Trump will only have a chance in this county if he somehow wins Michigan BIG next time, which is not likely.

Likely D. Hell, Safe D, but that wasn't an option.

Atlas hacks:
Macomb county (Trump +11)= Lean R/Tilt R
Oakland county (Clinton +8) = Safe D ?? ??

Governor Schuette who won Oakland County agrees.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Safe D and if the WWC vote continues to crash in Wayne, Oakland may vote to the left of Wayne at some point

[Bojack Horseman]

Oakland County not only went for Whitmer by 17 points but also every House seat in Oakland went to the Democrats for the first time since FDR, and the county commission went to the Democrats for the first time since 1978. Oakland is not voting for Trump.

[Arson Plus]

Is there something special about this county that's supposed to make me think that, because even as the rest of the state trended ten points toward the GOP it only trended two points toward the GOP didn't trend toward the GOP at all (Hillary lost 2 points from Obama but Trump lost two points from Romney, so still D +8), it will somehow be more competitive next time?

I think it's pretty obvious that Trump will only have a chance in this county if he somehow wins Michigan BIG next time, which is not likely.

Likely D. Hell, Safe D, but that wasn't an option.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Safe D and if the WWC vote continues to crash in Wayne, Oakland may vote to the left of Wayne at some point

LOL, Oakland is less than 15% black, Wayne is over 40% black.

[Arson Plus]

Safe D and if the WWC vote continues to crash in Wayne, Oakland may vote to the left of Wayne at some point

LOL, Oakland is less than 15% black, Wayne is over 40% black.

86000 posts! OnTHEROADTO100000

[Politician]

Safe D and if the WWC vote continues to crash in Wayne, Oakland may vote to the left of Wayne at some point

LOL, Oakland is less than 15% black, Wayne is over 40% black.

And yet Atlas mocks me when I suggest Mizzouian and Progress96 believe 2016 trends are god

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Safe D

Biden wins it 56/43

This is Safe D, yeah.

Oakland County is a core Democratic County now, Safe Democrat.

Is there something special about this county that's supposed to make me think that, because even as the rest of the state trended ten points toward the GOP it only trended two points toward the GOP didn't trend toward the GOP at all (Hillary lost 2 points from Obama but Trump lost two points from Romney, so still D +8), it will somehow be more competitive next time?

I think it's pretty obvious that Trump will only have a chance in this county if he somehow wins Michigan BIG next time, which is not likely.

Likely D. Hell, Safe D, but that wasn't an option.

Atlas hacks:
Macomb county (Trump +11)= Lean R/Tilt R
Oakland county (Clinton +8) = Safe D ?? ??

You literally think that Virginia is a tossup in 2020. you can't really lecture anyone on being a hack.

[S019]

Macomb: Tilt R

Oakland: Safe D, closer to Likely than Titanium