How likely is your Congressional District to change parties in 2006?

[Galactic Overlord]

Yep but I am 100% sure that the eventual Delay = Simmons ads will end up crushing him.  Johnson took Delay's money too.  It is going to come back and hurt them greatly. =)  Shays however is actually a decent guy and surely not a partisan.  And if the extremist wing of the Republican party wasn't in control I'd have no problem giving Shays my vote (though I'm not in his district).  But a vote for Shays is a vote for Delay, Blunt, Bush, Frist and the rest of the most extreme politicians that have ever run this country... At least in my lifetime. 

We'll see.  But I just think you need more than that to push one or more of them out of office.  Linking Congressional Democrats in the South to Nancy Pelosi doesn't always work either.  I live in Louisiana, and have seen two districts flip parties to the Democrats in the past two years despite Pelosi leading the party.

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Well as the old saying goes, "All politics is local."  Maybe Shays or Simmons will lose, maybe they won't.  It wouldn't surprise me either way.  Frankly, I'd love to see Shays punished for his part in pushing the first amendment infringing McCain-Feingold law.

[GOP = Terrorists]

Linking Congressional Democrats in the South to Nancy Pelosi doesn't always work either.  I live in Louisiana, and have seen two districts flip parties to the Democrats in the past two years despite Pelosi leading the party.

Your comparison of Delay to Pelosi is poor.  Pelosi while no doubt a liberal is not indicted and the most corrupt politician in the country. =)  When Abramoff's scandal investigations are finished it will make his other criminal involvements look like rolling through a stop sign.

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Money does not equal speech.  And boy are you going to have a fit if in 2008 it is McCain vs Feingold huh?  And nothing would be better for Progressives than for the GOP to be vocal in their opposition to campaign finance reform.  EXPECIALLY in Connecticut where our Republican governor is pushing hard for even further restrictions... =)

[J.G.H.]

SD-AL seems pretty likely Democrat hold.  Since this is SD, a Rep could obviously win, but Stephanie Herseth doesn't seem to be unpopular.

[KEmperor]

Pretty unlikely.

[No One]

32% (PA-13)
Taubenberger is who I think will hurt Schwartz the most. He will take the rather large conservative base in Perzel and O'Brien's areas as well as the few that are left in Montco.
If Raj were the nominee, he wont get much. Schwartz will take the moderates and the conservatives wont vote.
Katz probably wont be in much longer.
While none of them are likely to win, in my opinion, Taubenberger will take the most of the 3.

[TeePee4Prez]

32% (PA-13)
Taubenberger is who I think will hurt Schwartz the most. He will take the rather large conservative base in Perzel and O'Brien's areas as well as the few that are left in Montco.
If Raj were the nominee, he wont get much. Schwartz will take the moderates and the conservatives wont vote.
Katz probably wont be in much longer.
While none of them are likely to win, in my opinion, Taubenberger will take the most of the 3.

32%???  Get off the crack cocaine!  You guys need a massive national GOP turnaround, which is not likely, for me to consider your chances here at over 15%.   Given the current national GOP's position, you guys are looking realistically at 10% and I'm being generous.  You now have PA 6 and PA 8 to defend.  The guns have turned, you are on the defensive now.  If the national GOP wants to drain resources here, fine, by all means, but it will more likely hurt you.

[bullmoose88]

PA 8...Dems have 1 chance in 5...which given the last 14 years...is pretty good.

[Keystone Phil]

32% (PA-13)
Taubenberger is who I think will hurt Schwartz the most. He will take the rather large conservative base in Perzel and O'Brien's areas as well as the few that are left in Montco.
If Raj were the nominee, he wont get much. Schwartz will take the moderates and the conservatives wont vote.
Katz probably wont be in much longer.
While none of them are likely to win, in my opinion, Taubenberger will take the most of the 3.

32%???  Get off the crack cocaine!  You guys need a massive national GOP turnaround, which is not likely, for me to consider your chances here at over 15%.   Given the current national GOP's position, you guys are looking realistically at 10% and I'm being generous.  You now have PA 6 and PA 8 to defend.  The guns have turned, you are on the defensive now.  If the national GOP wants to drain resources here, fine, by all means, but it will more likely hurt you.

32% is better than the 0.5% chance you put down, hack.

[riceowl]

John Culberson, R,  TX-7.

Highly unlikely it'll change hands.  He's been re-elected twice with over 60% of the vote, and is beginning to be very vocal about illegal immigration (despite not living close to the border).

[Smash255]

32% (PA-13)
Taubenberger is who I think will hurt Schwartz the most. He will take the rather large conservative base in Perzel and O'Brien's areas as well as the few that are left in Montco.
If Raj were the nominee, he wont get much. Schwartz will take the moderates and the conservatives wont vote.
Katz probably wont be in much longer.
While none of them are likely to win, in my opinion, Taubenberger will take the most of the 3.

32%???  Get off the crack cocaine!  You guys need a massive national GOP turnaround, which is not likely, for me to consider your chances here at over 15%.   Given the current national GOP's position, you guys are looking realistically at 10% and I'm being generous.  You now have PA 6 and PA 8 to defend.  The guns have turned, you are on the defensive now.  If the national GOP wants to drain resources here, fine, by all means, but it will more likely hurt you.

32% is better than the 0.5% chance you put down, hack.

Considering thee Cook report has PA 13 listed as SAFE Democrat, I would say Flyers original prediction is closer than this asinine 32% projection.  (Safe would basically mean less than 10% of switching) and well 10% is much closer to 0.5% than 32%

[Erc]

No!  No!  No!

No PA-13!


Shhh!


For everyone's sanity!

[12th Doctor]

PA-5 - No chance

PA-3 - 10%

[Keystone Phil]

32% (PA-13)
Taubenberger is who I think will hurt Schwartz the most. He will take the rather large conservative base in Perzel and O'Brien's areas as well as the few that are left in Montco.
If Raj were the nominee, he wont get much. Schwartz will take the moderates and the conservatives wont vote.
Katz probably wont be in much longer.
While none of them are likely to win, in my opinion, Taubenberger will take the most of the 3.

32%???  Get off the crack cocaine!  You guys need a massive national GOP turnaround, which is not likely, for me to consider your chances here at over 15%.   Given the current national GOP's position, you guys are looking realistically at 10% and I'm being generous.  You now have PA 6 and PA 8 to defend.  The guns have turned, you are on the defensive now.  If the national GOP wants to drain resources here, fine, by all means, but it will more likely hurt you.

32% is better than the 0.5% chance you put down, hack.

Considering thee Cook report has PA 13 listed as SAFE Democrat, I would say Flyers original prediction is closer than this asinine 32% projection.  (Safe would basically mean less than 10% of switching) and well 10% is much closer to 0.5% than 32%

Schwartz wasn't elected with 75-80% of the vote so the assinine remark would be 0.5%, hack.

[Smash255]

32% (PA-13)
Taubenberger is who I think will hurt Schwartz the most. He will take the rather large conservative base in Perzel and O'Brien's areas as well as the few that are left in Montco.
If Raj were the nominee, he wont get much. Schwartz will take the moderates and the conservatives wont vote.
Katz probably wont be in much longer.
While none of them are likely to win, in my opinion, Taubenberger will take the most of the 3.

32%???  Get off the crack cocaine!  You guys need a massive national GOP turnaround, which is not likely, for me to consider your chances here at over 15%.   Given the current national GOP's position, you guys are looking realistically at 10% and I'm being generous.  You now have PA 6 and PA 8 to defend.  The guns have turned, you are on the defensive now.  If the national GOP wants to drain resources here, fine, by all means, but it will more likely hurt you.

32% is better than the 0.5% chance you put down, hack.

Considering thee Cook report has PA 13 listed as SAFE Democrat, I would say Flyers original prediction is closer than this asinine 32% projection.  (Safe would basically mean less than 10% of switching) and well 10% is much closer to 0.5% than 32%

Schwartz wasn't elected with 75-80% of the vote so the assinine remark would be 0.5%, hack.

Phil few things.  Someone who would have won by that amount would have a lower chance than 0.5%.  Second I wasn't agreeing with the 0.5% comment, but 0/5% is closer to reality than 32%.  32% would be the odds for a competitive race.  No one is considering PA-13 to be competive this time around.  It was an open seat that went to the Democrats by doubkle digits in a Republican year.  2006 at this point looks to be much better for the Dems than 04 was, you also have the incumbent factor, and the weak opponent factor.  While I disagree that its as low as 0.5%, the chances are closer to 0.5% than they are to 32%

[Keystone Phil]

32% would be the odds for a competitive race.   

You're dumb.

[Smash255]

32% would be the odds for a competitive race.   

You're dumb.

Phil when you look at how many of races that are considered competitive that actually result in the seat changing hands.....

[No One]

for those of you who dont think any of the candidates will get 32% is off his/her noodle.... It's a swing district. Schwartz will win but it's still a swing district which gives an automatic 30% to the challenger unless the incumbent is VERY popular and by VERY, i mean O'Brien (169 is swing) Taylor (his district really is very dem but lets call it swing because oh JT).

[minionofmidas]

for those of you who dont think any of the candidates will get 32% is off his/her noodle.... It's a swing district. Schwartz will win but it's still a swing district which gives an automatic 30% to the challenger unless the incumbent is VERY popular and by VERY, i mean O'Brien (169 is swing) Taylor (his district really is very dem but lets call it swing because oh JT).

Ah, okay. In other words, you simply didn't understand the question.

We're talking the probability of a Rep win in PA 13 ... which would basically require Schwartz going insane, or being defeated in the primary by a convicted murderer or something of the kind (beware, overstatement here.)
You were talking the mimimum percentage of the electorate that the Republicans are going to get.

[Keystone Phil]

We're talking the probability of a Rep win in PA 13 ... which would basically require Schwartz going insane

Uh...the woman isn't incredibly popular, Lewis. She won based on negative attacks on her opponent and she still received 56% of the vote. We're not talking about someone who has received, or ever will receive, 70-80% in this district.

[minionofmidas]

We're talking the probability of a Rep win in PA 13 ... which would basically require Schwartz going insane

Uh...the woman isn't incredibly popular, Lewis. She won based on negative attacks on her opponent and she still received 56% of the vote. We're not talking about someone who has received, or ever will receive, 70-80% in this district.

Agreed. (well...not unless she's got 20 years of incumbency and an unfunded opponent, or has no opponent at all, or the constituency has been heavily redrawn or its demographics have changed beyond recognition... )

[No One]

for those of you who dont think any of the candidates will get 32% is off his/her noodle.... It's a swing district. Schwartz will win but it's still a swing district which gives an automatic 30% to the challenger unless the incumbent is VERY popular and by VERY, i mean O'Brien (169 is swing) Taylor (his district really is very dem but lets call it swing because oh JT).

Ah, okay. In other words, you simply didn't understand the question.

We're talking the probability of a Rep win in PA 13 ... which would basically require Schwartz going insane, or being defeated in the primary by a convicted murderer or something of the kind (beware, overstatement here.)
You were talking the mimimum percentage of the electorate that the Republicans are going to get.

If Candidate A gets 30% in the polls, what are his/her odds of winning (beating Schwartz) answer: 30% odds of winning and 70% of losing.
I understood the question quite well.... you, on the other hand, do not understand basic arithmetic. Every percentage point that the Congresswoman's opponent receives is a percentage of a chance they have of beating her  (winning). If s/he gets 32% in the polls, s/he has a 32% chance of winning.
I had a GREAT 2nd great math teacher... want her number?

[Erc]

for those of you who dont think any of the candidates will get 32% is off his/her noodle.... It's a swing district. Schwartz will win but it's still a swing district which gives an automatic 30% to the challenger unless the incumbent is VERY popular and by VERY, i mean O'Brien (169 is swing) Taylor (his district really is very dem but lets call it swing because oh JT).

Ah, okay. In other words, you simply didn't understand the question.

We're talking the probability of a Rep win in PA 13 ... which would basically require Schwartz going insane, or being defeated in the primary by a convicted murderer or something of the kind (beware, overstatement here.)
You were talking the mimimum percentage of the electorate that the Republicans are going to get.

If Candidate A gets 30% in the polls, what are his/her odds of winning (beating Schwartz) answer: 30% odds of winning and 70% of losing.
I understood the question quite well.... you, on the other hand, do not understand basic arithmetic. Every percentage point that the Congresswoman's opponent receives is a percentage of a chance they have of beating her  (winning). If s/he gets 32% in the polls, s/he has a 32% chance of winning.
I had a GREAT 2nd great math teacher... want her number?

I see you were educated at the jfern school of Math/Stats... [apologies to jfern, of course]

[© tweed]

for those of you who dont think any of the candidates will get 32% is off his/her noodle.... It's a swing district. Schwartz will win but it's still a swing district which gives an automatic 30% to the challenger unless the incumbent is VERY popular and by VERY, i mean O'Brien (169 is swing) Taylor (his district really is very dem but lets call it swing because oh JT).

Ah, okay. In other words, you simply didn't understand the question.

We're talking the probability of a Rep win in PA 13 ... which would basically require Schwartz going insane, or being defeated in the primary by a convicted murderer or something of the kind (beware, overstatement here.)
You were talking the mimimum percentage of the electorate that the Republicans are going to get.

If Candidate A gets 30% in the polls, what are his/her odds of winning (beating Schwartz) answer: 30% odds of winning and 70% of losing.
I understood the question quite well.... you, on the other hand, do not understand basic arithmetic. Every percentage point that the Congresswoman's opponent receives is a percentage of a chance they have of beating her  (winning). If s/he gets 32% in the polls, s/he has a 32% chance of winning.
I had a GREAT 2nd great math teacher... want her number?

ehhhhhhhhhh..no.

Since Al Gore got 38% in Texas, John Kerry had a 38% chance of winning the state?

No, of course not.

Since Mitt Romney got 42% against Ted Kennedy in the 1994 MA Senate race, Kennedy only had a 58% chance of winning re-election in 2000?  Of course not.

It just doesn't work that way.

[Smash255]

for those of you who dont think any of the candidates will get 32% is off his/her noodle.... It's a swing district. Schwartz will win but it's still a swing district which gives an automatic 30% to the challenger unless the incumbent is VERY popular and by VERY, i mean O'Brien (169 is swing) Taylor (his district really is very dem but lets call it swing because oh JT).

Ah, okay. In other words, you simply didn't understand the question.

We're talking the probability of a Rep win in PA 13 ... which would basically require Schwartz going insane, or being defeated in the primary by a convicted murderer or something of the kind (beware, overstatement here.)
You were talking the mimimum percentage of the electorate that the Republicans are going to get.

If Candidate A gets 30% in the polls, what are his/her odds of winning (beating Schwartz) answer: 30% odds of winning and 70% of losing.
I understood the question quite well.... you, on the other hand, do not understand basic arithmetic. Every percentage point that the Congresswoman's opponent receives is a percentage of a chance they have of beating her  (winning). If s/he gets 32% in the polls, s/he has a 32% chance of winning.
I had a GREAT 2nd great math teacher... want her number?

Seems like you may be stuck on 2nd grade Math..

I nominate this for the dumbest post category

[TeePee4Prez]

for those of you who dont think any of the candidates will get 32% is off his/her noodle.... It's a swing district. Schwartz will win but it's still a swing district which gives an automatic 30% to the challenger unless the incumbent is VERY popular and by VERY, i mean O'Brien (169 is swing) Taylor (his district really is very dem but lets call it swing because oh JT).

Ah, okay. In other words, you simply didn't understand the question.

We're talking the probability of a Rep win in PA 13 ... which would basically require Schwartz going insane, or being defeated in the primary by a convicted murderer or something of the kind (beware, overstatement here.)
You were talking the mimimum percentage of the electorate that the Republicans are going to get.

I had a GREAT 2nd great math teacher... want her number?

Was she hot and if so is she still hot? DING!