How likely is your Congressional District to change parties in 2006?

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

TN-9 has been represented by a black Democrat since the 1974 election. It's not going anywhere.

At least there will be a GOP candidate this year.  I am amused at how some of the local Dem bloggers think that a white Dem can win the seat. 

[nini2287]

PA 2 has a less of a chance than 0.5%.  I will give you 1000 to 1 odds that a Democrat will be Representing that district after the 2006 Elections.

You can't say the chances of PA 13 flipping are 0.5%.

I said it would be a BIT higher with Taubenberger, but honestly not much with a weak candidate like him.

[Keystone Phil]

PA 2 has a less of a chance than 0.5%.  I will give you 1000 to 1 odds that a Democrat will be Representing that district after the 2006 Elections.

You can't say the chances of PA 13 flipping are 0.5%.

I said it would be a BIT higher with Taubenberger, but honestly not much with a weak candidate like him.

What? 3%? Still higher.

[nini2287]

PA 2 has a less of a chance than 0.5%.  I will give you 1000 to 1 odds that a Democrat will be Representing that district after the 2006 Elections.

You can't say the chances of PA 13 flipping are 0.5%.

I said it would be a BIT higher with Taubenberger, but honestly not much with a weak candidate like him.

What? 3%? Still higher.

I really donn't think this we need to have an argument.  We can just agree that Allyson Schwartz is very, very likely to be re-elected, espeically given the weakness of potential challengers.

[Keystone Phil]

PA 2 has a less of a chance than 0.5%.  I will give you 1000 to 1 odds that a Democrat will be Representing that district after the 2006 Elections.

You can't say the chances of PA 13 flipping are 0.5%.

I said it would be a BIT higher with Taubenberger, but honestly not much with a weak candidate like him.

What? 3%? Still higher.

I really donn't think this we need to have an argument.  We can just agree that Allyson Schwartz is very, very likely to be re-elected, espeically given the weakness of potential challengers.

No argument from me on that point.

[MAS117]

I would say the possibility of changing from Republican to Democrat is about 10%.

[TeePee4Prez]

PA 2 has a less of a chance than 0.5%.  I will give you 1000 to 1 odds that a Democrat will be Representing that district after the 2006 Elections.

You can't say the chances of PA 13 flipping are 0.5%.

I said it would be a BIT higher with Taubenberger, but honestly not much with a weak candidate like him.

What? 3%? Still higher.

I could agree at 3% with Taubenberger.  I'd be most afraid of Bhatka still.

[minionofmidas]

Lemme see...state elections are in 2008, federals (unless something nice happens) in 2009.

State elections, my district is held by Boris Rhein (worthless little prick - CDU), and the SPD would have to win state elections biggishly to turf him out... especially as long as turnout in the Gallus remains abysmal and turnout in the middle class areas to the north of the district remains high...
Federal elections, my district is held by Gregor Amann (SPD), by a fairly small margin. It might have switched in 2005...if the election had turned out as most people predicted it would, it likely would have switched.

Seeing as the thread title mentions 2006, though, you must be talking about local elections. Except that there are no districts in local elections in Hessen. Maybe you're talking of strongest party? Yeah, I believe it's distinctly possible that the SPD will replace the CDU as strongest party on the City Council. Of course, it's already got a left majority, and this won't change. And it's nonetheless governed by an uber-grand coalition of SPD, CDU, Greens and even FDP (tho' not all of the time... Frankfurt has sorta strange local politics at the moment), and whether that changes is probably not in the hands of the voters.

[Nation]

NY-27 ---- the Republican candidate for Mayor here got 27%. I don't think the congressional seat will be changing anytime soon, unfortunatley.

[Moooooo]

NY-27 ---- the Republican candidate for Mayor here got 27%. I don't think the congressional seat will be changing anytime soon, unfortunatley.

Who is your Rep in Maryland?  Van Hollen?

[nclib]

NC-4 (David Price). Very unlikely. The only time in the past 20 years that a Republican won it was 1994, and even that was very close.

[TomC]

Very unlikely The district including Davidson Co has been Dem since right after Reconstruction.

[Smash255]

Peter King R-NY-03

This is interesting because King has been getting bashed nonstop here latley over him going gaga over Bush, his harsh attacks directed at some of his consituents.  Unfortunley the candidate who not only would have the best chance to win, but would win as his eyes set on the Governor's Mashion

What are the chances that Nassau County Executive Tom Suzzoi decides to opt out of a potential priamry challenge to Spitzer and runs for Congress??  15% 20% maybe?  Basically comes down to that.  Suozzi runs, he wins

Others which could be threats to King (though I'm not sure if either of them actually reside in the 3rd CD & the chances of them running asre slim) are Babylon Town Supervisor Steve Bellone and Nassau Democratic Chair Jay Jacobs.   Wouldn't be as easy for those two to defeat King as it woul;d be Suozzi, and as I said I'm not sure if either actually reside in the 3rd CD, but a big part of the rightward moving King in a leftward moving district success has been $$$ advantages & name recognition, and while Bellone nor Jacobs have the name recognition as Suozzi does, they are pretty well known & will raise big $$$.

Then again we could see another no name like Blaire Mathies run again and King could easily cruise to victory as he has done in the past.

What's this about Suffolk County Legislator Pete Bishop maybe running?

I think you mean David Bishop D-Lindenhurst who is term limited as Suffolk County Legislator in the 14th LD.  Haven't heard much about a Bishop run, but it is a possibility especially considering he has run for Congress before.(as I explain below)   In the district Bishop doesn't have the name recognition that Suozzi has (  well no one does) nor the recognition that Jacobs or Bellone have.  78.5% of the district (based off 04 votes)  is in Nassau County, and while Bellone is in Suffolk also he is fairly well known in Nassau County as well and more well known than Bishop.  However, Bishop could also be a challenge to King & is much more well known & will have much more $$$ than any other opponents King has faced.  Interesingly Bishop did run for Congress in 2000 for Congressional District 2.  Lost in the Democratic Primary to the then elected & now ultra safe Steve Israel D-NY-02.  Redistricting changed the southwest corber of Suffolk County from NY-02 to NY-03

[Harry Hayfield]

I'm compiling a list of Congressional Districts in 2004 and by my reckoning (with 238 in so far) these are the ones most likely to change hands:

American Samoa   1
Missouri   3
California   20
Colorado   3
Georgia   12
Illinois   8
Louisiana   3
Indiana   9
Connecticut   4
Colorado   4
Minnesota   6
Connecticut   2
Indiana   8
Indiana   2
Louisiana   7

[Sam Spade]

I'm compiling a list of Congressional Districts in 2004 and by my reckoning (with 238 in so far) these are the ones most likely to change hands:

American Samoa   1
Missouri   3
California   20
Colorado   3
Georgia   12
Illinois   8
Louisiana   3
Indiana   9
Connecticut   4
Colorado   4
Minnesota   6
Connecticut   2
Indiana   8
Indiana   2
Louisiana   7

American Samoa is not a state and therefore does not have a Congressional District.

[The Dowager Mod]

Tammy Baldwin is not going anywhere.

[Alcon]

I'm compiling a list of Congressional Districts in 2004 and by my reckoning (with 238 in so far) these are the ones most likely to change hands:

American Samoa   1
Missouri   3
California   20
Colorado   3
Georgia   12
Illinois   8
Louisiana   3
Indiana   9
Connecticut   4
Colorado   4
Minnesota   6
Connecticut   2
Indiana   8
Indiana   2
Louisiana   7

Interesting list, but I think you overestimate the ease of flipping a congressional district the election after it has changed hands (as with CO-3 and GA-12).

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

I'm compiling a list of Congressional Districts in 2004 and by my reckoning (with 238 in so far) these are the ones most likely to change hands:

American Samoa   1
Missouri   3
California   20
Colorado   3
Georgia   12
Illinois   8
Louisiana   3
Indiana   9
Connecticut   4
Colorado   4
Minnesota   6
Connecticut   2
Indiana   8
Indiana   2
Louisiana   7

American Samoa is not a state and therefore does not have a Congressional District.

well technically yes, but they have a non-voting delegate   We need  to get rid of Faleomavaega!!!

[ian]

0%

[Sam Spade]

MD-07

-0%

Whats your opinion of Cummings.  Ive always liked him personally.

I like him personally as well.  Granted, I don't agree with a lot of what he votes for, but I'm sort of old-school in that I will often vote for people I don't agree with everything (or much) on because I like him.

As I did in 2004.

[Frodo]

I'm compiling a list of Congressional Districts in 2004 and by my reckoning (with 238 in so far) these are the ones most likely to change hands:

American Samoa   1
Missouri   3
California   20
Colorado   3
Georgia   12
Illinois   8
Louisiana   3
Indiana   9
Connecticut   4
Colorado   4
Minnesota   6
Connecticut   2
Indiana   8
Indiana   2
Louisiana   7

Pretty good.  I'd add the 8th congressional district in Washington state, currently represented by congressman Dave Reichert -a Republican.

His district covers much of King County east of Lake Washington- and was won by John Kerry last year, and is becoming increasingly Democratic, especially on the national level. 

[socaldem]

I'm compiling a list of Congressional Districts in 2004 and by my reckoning (with 238 in so far) these are the ones most likely to change hands:

American Samoa   1
Missouri   3
California   20
Colorado   3
Georgia   12
Illinois   8
Louisiana   3
Indiana   9
Connecticut   4
Colorado   4
Minnesota   6
Connecticut   2
Indiana   8
Indiana   2
Louisiana   7

CA-20?

Take that off your list.  Though he had a somewhat close win in '04, Costa is not going anywhere.  In '04 he faced the strongest possible opponent in GOP state senator Roy Ashburn and because it was an open seat.  Though the seat only went for Kerry by 3 points, the area is much more Democratic on down ballot races.  This is one place where Bush's outreach to Latino voters helped him a lot.  Local GOPers, however, have been much more effective at alienating--rather than coopting--Latinos...

If you want to put a CA seat on there, I'd suggest CA-11 where Richard Pombo is going to face a very well-financed challenger.  Pombo, who used to represent a largely agricultural district had his district extended into Bay Area bedroom communities filled with moderate Republicans and has seen his district rapidly exurbanize (thanks, in part, to his friendliness with developers).  Though similar demographics might be GOP elsewhere, in Northern California, it means the area is becoming more liberal and more concerned about issues like the environment and runaway development... in other words, a more left-leaning version of areas like Loudon County VA where pragmatic Democrats like Tim Kaine performed so well in '05...

Pombo, meanwhile, has pushed bill after bill that has enraged environmentalists, something that is politically dangerous since environmentalist groups are probably the most heavily organized and well-financed left-leaning activists.  He is definitely going to face a flurry of negative independent expenditures...

Democrats just need a good candidate.  Right now they have left-wing blogospheric darling Jim McNerny who ran in '04 and pulled just under 40% of the vote... he'd likely do better in '06, but would have trouble winning.  The DCCC seems to like their recruit, veteran and airline pilot Steve Filson (a close associate of Rep. Ellen Tauscher)... but I don't think he's the most charismatic candidate... moreover, both are from the Alameda-Contra Costa portion of the district while the 2/3 of the population and Pombo's base is in San Joaquin county where Democrats will have the hardest time getting people to vote against Pombo.

Rumor has it, though, that another candidate UP College Professor Margie Ensign is going to run.  I think she's the best candidate because she's from Stockton (and has a column in the Stockton paper) and would likely be able to depend on extra support from female suburban voters... if she jumps in as expected, this will be a barnburner...

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I'm compiling a list of Congressional Districts in 2004 and by my reckoning (with 238 in so far) these are the ones most likely to change hands:

American Samoa   1
Missouri   3
California   20
Colorado   3
Georgia   12
Illinois   8
Louisiana   3
Indiana   9
Connecticut   4
Colorado   4
Minnesota   6
Connecticut   2
Indiana   8
Indiana   2
Louisiana   7

CA-20?

Take that off your list.  Though he had a somewhat close win in '04, Costa is not going anywhere.  In '04 he faced the strongest possible opponent in GOP state senator Roy Ashburn and because it was an open seat.  Though the seat only went for Kerry by 3 points, the area is much more Democratic on down ballot races.  This is one place where Bush's outreach to Latino voters helped him a lot.  Local GOPers, however, have been much more effective at alienating--rather than coopting--Latinos...

If you want to put a CA seat on there, I'd suggest CA-11 where Richard Pombo is going to face a very well-financed challenger.  Pombo, who used to represent a largely agricultural district had his district extended into Bay Area bedroom communities filled with moderate Republicans and has seen his district rapidly exurbanize (thanks, in part, to his friendliness with developers).  Though similar demographics might be GOP elsewhere, in Northern California, it means the area is becoming more liberal and more concerned about issues like the environment and runaway development... in other words, a more left-leaning version of areas like Loudon County VA where pragmatic Democrats like Tim Kaine performed so well in '05...

Pombo, meanwhile, has pushed bill after bill that has enraged environmentalists, something that is politically dangerous since environmentalist groups are probably the most heavily organized and well-financed left-leaning activists.  He is definitely going to face a flurry of negative independent expenditures...

Democrats just need a good candidate.  Right now they have left-wing blogospheric darling Jim McNerny who ran in '04 and pulled just under 40% of the vote... he'd likely do better in '06, but would have trouble winning.  The DCCC seems to like their recruit, veteran and airline pilot Steve Filson (a close associate of Rep. Ellen Tauscher)... but I don't think he's the most charismatic candidate... moreover, both are from the Alameda-Contra Costa portion of the district while the 2/3 of the population and Pombo's base is in San Joaquin county where Democrats will have the hardest time getting people to vote against Pombo.

Rumor has it, though, that another candidate UP College Professor Margie Ensign is going to run.  I think she's the best candidate because she's from Stockton (and has a column in the Stockton paper) and would likely be able to depend on extra support from female suburban voters... if she jumps in as expected, this will be a barnburner...

Yes, Pombo's bilsl like the one to let developers get federal land real cheap make him be a stain on the reputation of the bay area. To allow developers to get most federal land at well below the true value is treasonous.

[Smash255]

Checking around some more on the locl LI boards.  A few others named as a possible challenge to King is my L.D Dave Mejias (Nassau County 14th L.D.  Mejias barley won re-election in a tight race to Nassau's 14th LD (a district where Republicans have a strong regristration advnatage of about 3-2).  Mejias would give a strong challenge to King & well known than his other opponents, but would probably fall short.

Most interesting one I saw was Nassau  DA-Elect Kathleen Rice.  Rice just knocked off 30 year incumbent Dennis Dillon.  Rice would be a very strong candidate, would probably get decent amount of $$$ from National Dems and would attack King strongly on his pro-life stance in a heavily pro-choice area.  A big reason Rice won was her excellent campaign against Dillon where she hit Dillon hard on his pro-life views impacting his decisions.  Only drawback to Rice is she was just elected to her 1st term as Nassau DA and is not likley to run.  If King is still there in 08, a Rice won would have a real good chance.

The consensus (since most think Suozzi won't run) the strongest candidate would be Steve Bellone, highly regarded, very popular, hige name reg & tons of $$$$, also is a Veteran which never hurts.  He runs King is in for a real challenge

[GOP = Terrorists]

Connecticut 3rd has NO CHANCE of flipping.