How likely is your Congressional District to change parties in 2006?

[Sarnstrom]

Unlikely, Kind was re-elected with 56% of the vote in 2004 against a rather strong opponent. But since the district gave only 51% for Kerry, it should be somewhat competitive none of the less.

[Sam Spade]

MD-07

-0%

[muon2]

No change in IL-14 with Speaker Hastert.

[Erc]

NY-18.  Not unless she dies between now and the election.  Even then, about a 3% chance of switching.

[Moooooo]

MD-07

-0%

Whats your opinion of Cummings.  Ive always liked him personally.

[Hatman 🍁]

20%

[phk]

Radanovich is here to stay.

[Gabu]

I'm not really sure.  It's been held by the conservative party (whichever that might have been at the time) ever since Gary Lunn got elected, but from what I know, support for the Conservative Party is not that high here in BC; in a recent poll, the Liberals were at 38%, the NDP were at 30% and the Conservatives were at 23%.  Given that mine is the riding that gave the Green Party candidate the highest percentage of the vote in any riding in Canada, it doesn't seem implausible to me the notion that a more liberal candidate could win here.  It depends on how splintered the liberal vote is; if it's like how it was in 2004, Gary Lunn (I assume he'll be running again) could squeak by.

[2952-0-0]

Hmmm...let me guess...30%. The Tories are unpopular (only 23% support?!?!) in BC, but everyone is tired of the Liberals. And, this district doesn't seem very NDP-friendly (suburbs, retirees).

I personally disapprove of Gary Lunn since he once said that global warming will just result in hoter days at the beach, and of the Conservative Party in general. Its "leadership" is nothing more than a joke.

But, as Gabu said, the non-Conservative vote will just be split, giving us another unfair result.

[Jake]

I'd give it a 5-10% chance. Carney certainly has the right time to run and if it's a bad year for Republicans, I could see him winning in a sqeaker. Doubtfull though.

[TeePee4Prez]

I'd give it a 5-10% chance. Carney certainly has the right time to run and if it's a bad year for Republicans, I could see him winning in a sqeaker. Doubtfull though.

If it were OLD PA 10, the chances would be about 35%.  Scranton not being in the district hurts the Dems, but Monroe County is looking promising.

[Smash255]

Not likely since Long Island is now a socialist stronghold much like the rest of NY.

Right, that's why Bush lost Suffolk county by 1%.

Did you happen to pay attention to the 2005 elections?

Hah, yes, a sea of red in which 30 year incumbents fell.

But it still isn't accurate to call LI socialist.

Socialist no, but Democratic yes.  I would say Bush's 1 point loss last year in Suffolk was much more of an abberation than the local elections this year.  For years their has been problems within the GOP in Suffolk (much like their was in Nassau) and it all pretty much came to a head this year (had its start with Levy winning).  But when you look at the national level & look at how Suffolk trended from 88 to 2000 with strong double digit wins for Clinton in 96 & Gore in 2000, last year seems a bit of  an abberation.  Several polls from a couple months ago (when Bush's national approval average was around 42, 43) showed Bush's approval on Long Island hovering around 30% (article didn't delve into specific county breadkwon, but did mention Suffolk was a slighlty higher than Nassau which makes sense so lets say something along the lines of 33% in Suffolk, 28% in Nassau at a time Bush was in the low 40's nationally.  Its pretty much now Safe Democratic territory with 04 being the abberation.

[Jake]

I'd give it a 5-10% chance. Carney certainly has the right time to run and if it's a bad year for Republicans, I could see him winning in a sqeaker. Doubtfull though.

If it were OLD PA 10, the chances would be about 35%.  Scranton not being in the district hurts the Dems, but Monroe County is looking promising.

If it was the old district, the Democrats would have Chris Doherty running next year and he'd whip Sherwood's ass.

[Smash255]

Peter King R-NY-03

This is interesting because King has been getting bashed nonstop here latley over him going gaga over Bush, his harsh attacks directed at some of his consituents.  Unfortunley the candidate who not only would have the best chance to win, but would win as his eyes set on the Governor's Mashion

What are the chances that Nassau County Executive Tom Suzzoi decides to opt out of a potential priamry challenge to Spitzer and runs for Congress??  15% 20% maybe?  Basically comes down to that.  Suozzi runs, he wins

Others which could be threats to King (though I'm not sure if either of them actually reside in the 3rd CD & the chances of them running asre slim) are Babylon Town Supervisor Steve Bellone and Nassau Democratic Chair Jay Jacobs.   Wouldn't be as easy for those two to defeat King as it woul;d be Suozzi, and as I said I'm not sure if either actually reside in the 3rd CD, but a big part of the rightward moving King in a leftward moving district success has been $$$ advantages & name recognition, and while Bellone nor Jacobs have the name recognition as Suozzi does, they are pretty well known & will raise big $$$.

Then again we could see another no name like Blaire Mathies run again and King could easily cruise to victory as he has done in the past.

[Platypus]

It will happen the day after Hell freezes over!

[Platypus]

In 2007, 25%. If Danby retires, 40%

[socaldem]

Peter King R-NY-03

This is interesting because King has been getting bashed nonstop here latley over him going gaga over Bush, his harsh attacks directed at some of his consituents.  Unfortunley the candidate who not only would have the best chance to win, but would win as his eyes set on the Governor's Mashion

What are the chances that Nassau County Executive Tom Suzzoi decides to opt out of a potential priamry challenge to Spitzer and runs for Congress??  15% 20% maybe?  Basically comes down to that.  Suozzi runs, he wins

Others which could be threats to King (though I'm not sure if either of them actually reside in the 3rd CD & the chances of them running asre slim) are Babylon Town Supervisor Steve Bellone and Nassau Democratic Chair Jay Jacobs.   Wouldn't be as easy for those two to defeat King as it woul;d be Suozzi, and as I said I'm not sure if either actually reside in the 3rd CD, but a big part of the rightward moving King in a leftward moving district success has been $$$ advantages & name recognition, and while Bellone nor Jacobs have the name recognition as Suozzi does, they are pretty well known & will raise big $$$.

Then again we could see another no name like Blaire Mathies run again and King could easily cruise to victory as he has done in the past.

What's this about Suffolk County Legislator Pete Bishop maybe running?

[socaldem]

CA-26 David Dreier

Uh... I'd say 10%-15% chance of losing... He had a close call in '04 but that was because the Democrat was able to pick up disgruntled conservatives because of the "John & Ken Show" jihad in which right-wing radio hosts viciously attacked Dreier in the lead-up to the election.  Since then, Dreier has taken some action on immigration to mollify the conservative base...

Dems have a challenger in businessman Russ Warner, but Dreier is absolutely loaded (with over $2 million coh) and the media market is very expensive.  I can see Dreier being kept in the low 50s again, but I can't see a Dem pick-up at this point.

[Keystone Phil]

Given the GOP nominee:

Marina Kats: 2%
Al Taubenberger: 0.5%
Raj Bhatka: 7%

I love your math.

There really is no chance with the likely candidates for the GOP nomination but I think Flyers' chances are off and reflect his partisan attitude.

[nini2287]

Given the GOP nominee:

Marina Kats: 2%
Al Taubenberger: 0.5%
Raj Bhatka: 7%

I love your math.

There really is no chance with the likely candidates for the GOP nomination but I think Flyers' chances are off and reflect his partisan attitude.

I agree with Flyers (maybe I'd give Kats and Taubenberger a BIT higher but not much).  This isn't the PA-13 of the 1990s or even 2002.  Schwartz is also a much stronger candidate than Hoeffel was.

[WalterMitty]

ed markey is my congressman.  he is about as safe as you can get.

[Galactic Overlord]

My district is LA-01, Bobby Jindal's district.  Went Republican when Bob Livingston won the seat, and has never looked back. 

Likely to switch parties: 0%.

[Keystone Phil]

I agree with Flyers (maybe I'd give Kats and Taubenberger a BIT higher but not much).  This isn't the PA-13 of the 1990s or even 2002.  Schwartz is also a much stronger candidate than Hoeffel was.

Schwartz is a stronger candidate but more out of step. Taubenberger, Kats, Bhakta...they aren't going to win. We all know that. But 0.5% or 2% chance? Come on. This isn't PA 2.

[nini2287]

I agree with Flyers (maybe I'd give Kats and Taubenberger a BIT higher but not much).  This isn't the PA-13 of the 1990s or even 2002.  Schwartz is also a much stronger candidate than Hoeffel was.

Schwartz is a stronger candidate but more out of step. Taubenberger, Kats, Bhakta...they aren't going to win. We all know that. But 0.5% or 2% chance? Come on. This isn't PA 2.

PA 2 has a less of a chance than 0.5%.  I will give you 1000 to 1 odds that a Democrat will be Representing that district after the 2006 Elections.

[Keystone Phil]

PA 2 has a less of a chance than 0.5%.  I will give you 1000 to 1 odds that a Democrat will be Representing that district after the 2006 Elections.

You can't say the chances of PA 13 flipping are 0.5%.