How likely is your Congressional District to change parties in 2006?

[memphis]

TN-9 has been represented by a black Democrat since the 1974 election. It's not going anywhere.

[© tweed]

Slightly under 0%...Steve Israel, NY-02

[Blank Slate]

The Georgia 4th will stay Democrat.  Certainly it is possible that Cynthia McKinney, the Congresswoman could be defeated again, in a primary, but she probably won't be.

[Virginian87]

Not Likely.  VA-11 has been represented by Rep. Tom Davis (R) since 1994.  He's a moderate Republican, which plays well to his base.  I like him and find that I generally agree with him most of the time.  If you're a baseball fan, you may know him as the chairman of the House investigation committee on steroids.

But barring the emergence of an outstanding Democrat, Tom should be here to stay come 2007.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

0%

[Moooooo]

.00001%

[Dave from Michigan]

very unlikely he won 58% of the vote in 2004

[Joe Republic]

Nope.  Not happening.

[memphis]

very unlikely he won 58% of the vote in 2004

That's pretty bad for an incumbent in the House.

[Dave from Michigan]

very unlikely he won 58% of the vote in 2004

That's pretty bad for an incumbent in the House.

but the other candidate would have to overcome an 18% difference that's unlikely.

[CARLHAYDEN]

It will happen the day after Hell freezes over!

[Dave from Michigan]

If you were wondering my district is MI 11th represented by Republican Thaddeus McCotter

[TeePee4Prez]

Given the GOP nominee:

Marina Kats: 2%
Al Taubenberger: 0.5%
Raj Bhatka: 7%

[YRABNNRM]

Not likely since Long Island is now a socialist stronghold much like the rest of NY.

[bgwah]

I say 30%.

Dave Reichert (R) narrowly won an open seat in a Kerry district. He'll probably win, but I could certainly see him losing just for being a Republican and supporting most of their agenda.

Other than being an incumbent, he has a better chance of winning because the Democrats may not be able to come up with a decent candidate.

East King County trended heavily Dem between the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections, too.

[TheresNoMoney]

As of now, I'd say a 1 in 3 shot (33%). I'm in NH-02, which is Charlie Bass's district.

[TheresNoMoney]

Other than being an incumbent, he has a better chance of winning because the Democrats may not be able to come up with a decent candidate.

Darcy Burner is the likely candidate and I would say that we have a good shot to beat Reichart. He is certainly one of the top 10 or 15 Republicans most likely to lose.

[Speed of Sound]

Nope.  Not happening.

^^^^^^^^^ (PA-17 Holden)

[Frodo]

Congressman Jim Moran usually wins by three to two margins, and with redistricting after the 2001 census having made it even more Democratic, adding the Dulles Road corridor and Reston to the already heavily Democratic district (which primarily was composed of Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, McLean, and the Hybla Valley prior to redistricting), it is pretty much impossible for a Republican to win even if and when Moran finally retires. 

In other words, not likely -at all.

[© tweed]

Not likely since Long Island is now a socialist stronghold much like the rest of NY.

Right, that's why Bush lost Suffolk county by 1%.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Very very unlikely. When Gutknecht retires, a fairly decent chance.

[WMS]

Unlikely but not impossible. NM-1 has always been such a tease for the Democrats...almost within their grasp, yet they've never been able to win it since NM went to districted instead of At-Large districts. I expect that to continue in 2006...and 2008...and 2010...and then we get redistricting and who knows what happens then.

[YRABNNRM]

Not likely since Long Island is now a socialist stronghold much like the rest of NY.

Right, that's why Bush lost Suffolk county by 1%.

Did you happen to pay attention to the 2005 elections?

[© tweed]

Not likely since Long Island is now a socialist stronghold much like the rest of NY.

Right, that's why Bush lost Suffolk county by 1%.

Did you happen to pay attention to the 2005 elections?

Hah, yes, a sea of red in which 30 year incumbents fell.

But it still isn't accurate to call LI socialist.

[YRABNNRM]

Not likely since Long Island is now a socialist stronghold much like the rest of NY.

Right, that's why Bush lost Suffolk county by 1%.

Did you happen to pay attention to the 2005 elections?

Hah, yes, a sea of red in which 30 year incumbents fell.

But it still isn't accurate to call LI socialist.

It was a hyperbole