Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[pbrower2a]

Texas: Quinnipiac, Sep. 4-9, 1410 RV

Approve 45
Disapprove 50

Definitely vote for Trump 35
Consider voting for Trump 14
Definitely not vote for Trump 48

This seems a little more realistic than the Univision/UH poll.

Something tells me even in this sh**tshow and even in a stronger sh**tshow, Trump's ceiling is greater than 52% in Texas.

It could also be that Texas is becoming less stereotypically Southern in its politics (see also Virginia and North Carolina).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kaiser Family Foundation, Sep. 3-8, 1205 adults (change from mid-July)

Approve 41 (-3)
Disapprove 54 (+2)

Strongly approve 25 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+1)

[pbrower2a]

States for which I would like to see approval polls:

1. Minnesota -- just to dispel any idea that Trump's close loss in 2016 portends a narrow victory there.
2. Iowa -- tipping-point state in 2008
3. Illinois. OK, no surprise, but it has the most electoral votes for a state not shown for having a poll of any kind
4. Oregon -- big territory even if it has only seven electoral votes... see also Nevada, Montana, New Mexico, Idaho, and Kansas
5. Tennessee -- most populous state that looks reasonably-certain R
6. Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey, Washington -- house-keeping
7. Nebraska -- I would love to see how those districts vote    

[Progressive Pessimist]

Texas: Quinnipiac, Sep. 4-9, 1410 RV

Approve 45
Disapprove 50

Definitely vote for Trump 35
Consider voting for Trump 14
Definitely not vote for Trump 48

This seems a little more realistic than the Univision/UH poll.

Something tells me even in this sh**tshow and even in a stronger sh**tshow, Trump's ceiling is greater than 52% in Texas.

It could also be that Texas is becoming less stereotypically Southern in its politics (see also Virginia and North Carolina).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Firehouse Strategies/Optimus, Sep. 5-7, likely voters in PA, MI, and WI

Pennsylvania (n=527)

Approve 43
Disapprove 52

Michigan (n=529)

Approve 45
Disapprove 49

Wisconsin (n=534)

Approve 42
Diapprove 54

[Brittain33]

Firehouse Strategies/Optimus, Sep. 5-7, likely voters in PA, MI, and WI

Pennsylvania (n=527)

Approve 43
Disapprove 52

Michigan (n=529)

Approve 45
Disapprove 49

Wisconsin (n=534)

Approve 42
Diapprove 54

Well, that's different.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These polls does reaffirm the results that we saw in NC-9, the rural and urban divide. That we all saw in 2016, that although the country, urban American see Trump as not doing enough, and rural America, whites have benefited from the tax cuts; suburbs and farmers have done well. NC-9 had that suburban and rural divide and Bishop won.

But, urban American rejects Trump and his corruption

[pbrower2a]

Firehouse Strategies/Optimus, Sep. 5-7, likely voters in PA, MI, and WI

Pennsylvania (n=527)

Approve 43
Disapprove 52

Michigan (n=529)

Approve 45
Disapprove 49

Wisconsin (n=534)

Approve 42
Diapprove 54

Well, that's different.

This is a house pollster for Republicans. Except in Michigan, these numbers are just simply horrid.

This pollster uses "likely voters" (whatever that means is suspect) and under-reports people who now exclusively use cell-phones. Reliance upon a dying technology (land-lines versus cell phones) can get distorted results.

I live in Michigan, and although the Pennsylvania and Wisconsin results look uncharacteristic for Michigan. Could it be that someone commissioned a poll to attract 'conservative' funds to Michigan? One of Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin is likely enough to bring about a Trump re-election.

None of the potential matchups of Biden, Sanders, nor Warren shows Trump getting more than 43%. Usually at this stage an incumbent President is not in campaign mode, so taking these numbers puts Trump within range of winning the state with a spirited and competent campaign. But he is already in campaign mode, giving speeches resembling those of Fidel Castro, who thought that such speeches were democracy themselves.    

Obviously Trump breaks many rules, and he broke lots of rules to get elected. Most obviously, Trump has done everything possible to offend and hurt those unlikely to vote for him based on their core beliefs, which one rarely sees in a democracy in which political give-and-take is the norm. But choosing to hurt those is not a safe way to avoid hurting those whom one does not intend to hurt. If one has no concern about losing the next election one can do that -- let us say, mistreating minority groups -- because the vote is rigged. What can people who have lost loved ones to the North Korean regime do about it -- vote against the regime?

   

[ProudModerate2]

Washington Post/Kaiser Family Foundation

63% Disapprove
37% Approve

JUL 9-AUG 5, 2019
2,293 adults
https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/washington-post-kaiser-family-foundation-climate-change-survey-july-9-aug-5-2019/601ed8ff-a7c6-4839-b57e-3f5eaa8ed09f/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Washington Post/Kaiser Family Foundation

63% Disapprove
37% Approve

JUL 9-AUG 5, 2019
2,293 adults
https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/washington-post-kaiser-family-foundation-climate-change-survey-july-9-aug-5-2019/601ed8ff-a7c6-4839-b57e-3f5eaa8ed09f/

That's a really old poll for them to just now be releasing.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D), Aug. 15-21, 2629 RV

Approve 44
Disapprove 56

Strongly approve 27
Strongly disapprove 46

Generic D 52, Trump 42

GCB: D 49, R 41

[Person Man]

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D), Aug. 15-21, 2629 RV

Approve 44
Disapprove 56

Strongly approve 27
Strongly disapprove 46

Generic D 52, Trump 42

GCB: D 49, R 41

I would buy that these numbers most accurately represent the morning where from which we can use the final results to how we evaluate the 2020 campaign. With these numbers, anything can happen. If the election turns out to be a Pyrrhic D victory (which tends to only happen during a D reelection) or a straight out R victory up and down the victory, not only can it be said that what Trump does is effective, but that the Dems are truly in disarray.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Another GQR poll:

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/Democracy Corps (D), Sep. 7-11, 800 RV including 775 LV

RV:

Approve 43
Disapprove 54

Strongly approve 31
Strongly disapprove 48

LV:

Approve 44
Disapprove 54

Strongly approve 32
Strongly disapprove 48

Trump trails Biden by 9, Warren by 7, and Sanders by 5.

[Person Man]

Another GQR poll:

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/Democracy Corps (D), Sep. 7-11, 800 RV including 775 LV

RV:

Approve 43
Disapprove 54

Strongly approve 31
Strongly disapprove 48

LV:

Approve 44
Disapprove 54

Strongly approve 32
Strongly disapprove 48

Trump trails Biden by 9, Warren by 7, and Sanders by 5.

Like I said, a fairly accurate picture of the environment coming into this thing.

[pbrower2a]

At this point I would guess that nobody really knows what a "likely voter" of 2020 is, and that the electorate will be far less than "adults". Registered voters is our best guess on the electorate for now. I do not see the electorate shrinking, and it is premature o predict what people not yet registered to vote will vote. Some of the voters of the 2020 election are now only 16 years old.

43% approve, and as usual that number  is lower than total approval. 100-DIS gives Trump a ceiling of 46%, and I doubt that he will reach that.

About 31% of Americans still have a steadfast belief in this President and his agenda... the fascist floor.

[GeorgiaModerate]

PPP battleground state poll, Sep. 4-5, 733 voters in AZ, FL, MI, PA, TX, WI only.

Approve 46
Disapprove 52

R: 83/13
D: 14/85
I: 43/54

Generic D 51
Trump 45

R: 11/85
D: 85/11
I: 40/53

Interesting that R and D are mirror images and cancel each other out, so the Independents swing the result against Trump.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, Sep. 13-15, 1994 RV (1-week change)

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 24 (+1)
Strongly approve 42 (nc)

Interesting for comparison: do you approve or disapprove of the job President Obama did as president?

Approve 58
Disapprove 39

Strongly approve 34
Strongly disapprove 27

2020:

Definitely vote for Trump 29
Probably vote for Trump 8
Probably someone else 7
Definitely someone else 46

GCB: D 44, R 37

[pbrower2a]

The bottom line: President Trump’s actions on health care are extremely unpopular with
voters in key November 2020 battleground states, including independents and
Republicans. Indeed, if framed around the issue of health care, voters say they would even
vote for Attila the Hun over President Trump (45-41), if Attila the Hun would maintain
and improve the health care law including protections for people with pre-existing
conditions.

I wonder if Judas Iscariot will appear as one of the alternatives to Trump. Vlad Tepes? (Dracula)... Cecil Price (the Mississippi deputy sheriff who betrayed James Chaney, Andrew Goodman, and Michael Schwerner to KKK fascists who murdered them)...


One of two things is happening. It is possible that the difference between a Trump win and a Trump loss is heavily concentrated in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in which case those three states decide a close election in the Electoral College and the others in this group go barely to Trump... or these states are closer, in which case Trump could lose them all. One way or the other, Trump so far looks cooked as "well done" politically as the steak he insists upon. You know -- burned.   

[pbrower2a]

Morning Consult/Politico, Sep. 13-15, 1994 RV (1-week change)

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 24 (+1)
Strongly approve 42 (nc)

Interesting for comparison: do you approve or disapprove of the job President Obama did as president?

Approve 58
Disapprove 39

Strongly approve 34
Strongly disapprove 27

2020:

Definitely vote for Trump 29
Probably vote for Trump 8
Probably someone else 7
Definitely someone else 46

GCB: D 44, R 37

When all is said and done, the President most similar in character and temperament to Barack Obama is Dwight Eisenhower. Obama has lain low as Trump treats him as a pariah. The contrast will be obvious when Obama goes to the Democratic national convention.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

PPP battleground state poll, Sep. 4-5, 733 voters in AZ, FL, MI, PA, TX, WI only.

Approve 46
Disapprove 52

R: 83/13
D: 14/85
I: 43/54

Generic D 51
Trump 45

R: 11/85
D: 85/11
I: 40/53

Interesting that R and D are mirror images and cancel each other out, so the Independents swing the result against Trump.

Annoyed that they didn’t break out the numbers by state, but I would take a guess he’s probably not polling approval above disapproval in any of the states listed

[GeorgiaModerate]

PPP battleground state poll, Sep. 4-5, 733 voters in AZ, FL, MI, PA, TX, WI only.

Approve 46
Disapprove 52

R: 83/13
D: 14/85
I: 43/54

Generic D 51
Trump 45

R: 11/85
D: 85/11
I: 40/53

Interesting that R and D are mirror images and cancel each other out, so the Independents swing the result against Trump.

Annoyed that they didn’t break out the numbers by state, but I would take a guess he’s probably not polling approval above disapproval in any of the states listed

With 733 total voters in six states, the sample sizes for each state would be really small and have a huge margin of error.  I don't blame them for not posting the individual state results.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is a little old, but interesting.

AARP, July 29-31, 600 likely voters (all ages) in each of AZ, CO, KY, ME, and NC.

AZ:

Approve 46 (strongly 34)
Disapprove 50 (strongly 44)

Biden 50, Trump 45

CO:

Approve 43 (strongly 30)
Disapprove 55 (strongly 47)

Biden 51, Trump 42

KY:

Approve 55 (strongly 39)
Disapprove 43 (strongly 36)

Trump 53, Biden 41

ME:

Approve 45 (strongly 31)
Disapprove 53 (strongly 49)

Biden 50, Trump 44

NC:

Approve 47 (strongly 34)
Disapprove 50 (strongy 46)

Biden 49, Trump 45

[Person Man]

This is a little old, but interesting.

AARP, July 29-31, 600 likely voters (all ages) in each of AZ, CO, KY, ME, and NC.

AZ:

Approve 46 (strongly 34)
Disapprove 50 (strongly 44)

Biden 50, Trump 45

CO:

Approve 43 (strongly 30)
Disapprove 55 (strongly 47)

Biden 51, Trump 42

KY:

Approve 55 (strongly 39)
Disapprove 43 (strongly 36)

Trump 53, Biden 41

ME:

Approve 45 (strongly 31)
Disapprove 53 (strongly 49)

Biden 50, Trump 44

NC:

Approve 47 (strongly 34)
Disapprove 50 (strongy 46)

Biden 49, Trump 45

North Carolina and Arizona are swing states and Kentucky would be more competitive if Democrats needed it. Maine will only flip if Republicans do very well. Colorado is just out of reach.

[GeorgiaModerate]

California: Emerson, Sep. 13-16, 830 RV

Approve 35
Disapprove 59

[Person Man]

California: Emerson, Sep. 13-16, 830 RV

Approve 35
Disapprove 59

That's kind of high but ironically good for the Democrats. I think its just like Kentucky where because the party has given up in that state, a lot of people who would come out and make the state closer just won't vote because "what's the point?"

My brother was like that in Wyoming. He knew that though some people would agree with him, the average person would never consider a Democrat and so just thought elections were a joke in that state and didn't bother ever showing up.