Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[pbrower2a]

Nothing changing yet, according to polls.

[Inmate Trump]

Nothing changing yet, according to polls.

it's possible everyone has settled into one side or the other.  If the things Trump has said and done the last three years haven't swayed you, you won't be swayed.  And if you find him abhorrent, nothing will change your mind on that either.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This one has an interesting adults/RV split:

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Sep. 28-Oct. 1, 1500 adults including 1087 RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 50 (nc)

Strongly approve 25 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+1)

Generic D 40 (-1), Trump 36 (+1)

House should try to impeach Trump:

Yes 44
No 37

Senate should remove Trump:

Yes 46
No 37

RV:

Approve 42 (-2)
Disapprove 56 (+4)

Strongly approve 28 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 47 (+2)

Generic D 49 (nc), Trump 39 (nc)

Impeach Trump:

Yes 50
No 39

Remove Trump:

Yes 51
No 39

GCB (RV only): D 47 (nc), R 40 (+1)

[pbrower2a]

So registered voters now show a bare majority of support (although within the margin of error) to impeach and remove the President while approval ratings seem to drift erratically within a narrow range?

It is still too early to say that the end is nigh for this troubled Presidency. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Sep. 30-Oct. 1, 1121 adults including 964 RV

Adults:

Approve 40 (nc)
Disapprove 55 (+2)

Strongly approve 23 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+1)

RV:

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 56 (+3)

Strongly approve 24 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+5)

This continues a couple of trends I've seen in some other recent polls:

1. On the whole, Trump is losing ground in net approval (now down to -12.5 on 538), but more so among registered voters than among all adults.

2. Despite this, his strong approval numbers have increased in several polls.  I think this is a case of his core supporters rallying to his defense in the face of a really serious threat to his Presidency.

[GeorgiaModerate]

PPP (for Environmental Defense Fund), Sep. 26-27, 885 voters (change from early July)

Approve 40 (-2)
Disapprove 55 (+3)

Generic D 52, Trump 41

Pence approval 43
Pence disapproval 46

Generic D 49, Pence 40

[pbrower2a]

Pence to the rescue of the GOP?

No. Less flamboyant, but more reactionary.

[pbrower2a]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Sep. 30-Oct. 1, 1121 adults including 964 RV

Adults:

Approve 40 (nc)
Disapprove 55 (+2)

Strongly approve 23 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+1)

RV:

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 56 (+3)

Strongly approve 24 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+5)

This continues a couple of trends I've seen in some other recent polls:

1. On the whole, Trump is losing ground in net approval (now down to -12.5 on 538), but more so among registered voters than among all adults.

2. Despite this, his strong approval numbers have increased in several polls.  I think this is a case of his core supporters rallying to his defense in the face of a really serious threat to his Presidency.

You may have a valid interpretation. Right-wing pols have no alternatives available to Trump for now.  Besides, Trump is able to turn up the invective, vilifying anyone 'out to get him' as traitors. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, Sep. 16-30, 2431 adults (2-week change)

Approve 40 (-3)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

New Morning Consult state-by-state approvals: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

[Badger]

New Morning Consult state-by-state approvals: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

Trump's being deep underwater in Iowa, and doing poorly in Ohio are both pleasant surprises.

A little surprised that Virginia is at only a negative 6 unfavorability rating. Hopefully an outlier rather than Republicans coming home in anticipation of State elections in a month? If the latter oh, that sets an ominous trend for 2020.

Or I could be reading too much into it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ohio: Emerson, Sep. 29-Oct. 2, 837 RV

Trump approval: 43/51

Impeachment support: 47/43

Biden 53, Trump 47
Sanders 53, Trump 47
Warren 52, Trump 48

Biden 54, Pence 46
Warren 51, Pence 49
Sanders 51, Pence 49

[Person Man]

New Morning Consult state-by-state approvals: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

Loses every state where a majority disapproves with states where he's behind but below a 50% disapproval being TCTC

https://www.270towin.com/maps/Ab121

[Nhoj]

New Morning Consult state-by-state approvals: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

Trump's being deep underwater in Iowa, and doing poorly in Ohio are both pleasant surprises.

A little surprised that Virginia is at only a negative 6 unfavorability rating. Hopefully an outlier rather than Republicans coming home in anticipation of State elections in a month? If the latter oh, that sets an ominous trend for 2020.

Or I could be reading too much into it.

His approvals are really tanking across the board in the Plains states. Im sure there will be lots of disapprove but still vote for him in those places, but hes going to lose Iowa and NE-2 with those numbers.

[afleitch]

New Morning Consult state-by-state approvals: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

Trump's being deep underwater in Iowa, and doing poorly in Ohio are both pleasant surprises.

A little surprised that Virginia is at only a negative 6 unfavorability rating. Hopefully an outlier rather than Republicans coming home in anticipation of State elections in a month? If the latter oh, that sets an ominous trend for 2020.

Or I could be reading too much into it.

-6 is still his second worse performance in that state all year. Civiqs have him at -15 in Virginia.

[Person Man]

New Morning Consult state-by-state approvals: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

Trump's being deep underwater in Iowa, and doing poorly in Ohio are both pleasant surprises.

A little surprised that Virginia is at only a negative 6 unfavorability rating. Hopefully an outlier rather than Republicans coming home in anticipation of State elections in a month? If the latter oh, that sets an ominous trend for 2020.

Or I could be reading too much into it.

His approvals are really tanking across the board in the Plains states. Im sure there will be lots of disapprove but still vote for him in those places, but hes going to lose Iowa and NE-2 with those numbers.

I’d be happy with that. With Colorado and Virginia off the table, being far from full strength in the farm areas is a death blow.

[HisGrace]

Trump's down about a point and a half over the past week on both the RCP and 538 averages. So I'd say it's certainly not helping him.

[Brittain33]

Trump's down about a point and a half over the past week on both the RCP and 538 averages. So I'd say it's certainly not helping him.

Although that is coming after an usual rise in his polls.

[GP270watch]

 I want to see where we are around the holidays when Congress goes home and the news takes a break. If Trump's numbers rebound to his usual averages, it just shows no matter what happens we are in a highly polarized environment and everything is baked in. We've seen Trump's numbers tank when the news cycle is embarrassing for him only to go up again when that current story dies down or is supplanted by another.

[junior chįmp]

New Morning Consult state-by-state approvals: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

Throw in a recession and you get a 1980/1932 style blow out

[GP270watch]

New Morning Consult state-by-state approvals: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

Throw in a recession and you get a 1980/1932 style blow out

  Trump looks awful in Iowa which really give the Democrats some cushion on the electoral map.

[Politician]

New Morning Consult state-by-state approvals: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

BATTLEGROUND MONTANA!!!!!
BATTLEGROUND NEBRASKA!!!!!
BATTLEGROUND UTAH!!!!!

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

New Morning Consult state-by-state approvals: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

BATTLEGROUND MONTANA!!!!!
BATTLEGROUND NEBRASKA!!!!!
BATTLEGROUND UTAH!!!!!

Iowa at -14, Virginia at -6, Arizona at -4.

Seems legit.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

New Morning Consult state-by-state approvals: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

Are these actual tracking polls?

[GeorgiaModerate]

New Morning Consult state-by-state approvals: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

Are these actual tracking polls?

This data is pulled out of their regular daily survey (5000 RV per day nationwide).  Click on Methodology in the left-hand frame on that page to get the gory details.