Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[pbrower2a]

More from the NPR/Marist poll:

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1153343240306864129

This just shows how bad the Democratic Party is at messaging. With support for policies like these, we should be crushing the GOP at every turn. Of course, difficult turnout amongst our base (young people and minorities) is also a factor in our hardships.

Why do people pretend Dems didn't pick up 40 seats and flip 7 Governorships? They won because they had a better message than the GOP/Trump. Republicans don't even have a coherent message on healthcare.

They do. That if you can’t afford  healthcare, you can’t afford to live here.

...Or

Rely on faith-healing, rely on quack medicine, or simply get sick and die. Survival is a privilege, as is everything else in a harsh social-darwinist world.

[Person Man]

More from the NPR/Marist poll:

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1153343240306864129

This just shows how bad the Democratic Party is at messaging. With support for policies like these, we should be crushing the GOP at every turn. Of course, difficult turnout amongst our base (young people and minorities) is also a factor in our hardships.

Why do people pretend Dems didn't pick up 40 seats and flip 7 Governorships? They won because they had a better message than the GOP/Trump. Republicans don't even have a coherent message on healthcare.

They do. That if you can’t afford  healthcare, you can’t afford to live here.

...Or

Rely on faith-healing, rely on quack medicine, or simply get sick and die. Survival is a privilege, as is everything else in a harsh social-darwinist world.

They think "basic positive rights" are privileges. Survival is a bargained for property interest like a car, house, or boat.

[GeorgiaModerate]

ARG monthly economic survey, July 17-20, 1100 adults

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 56 (+1)

Among RV it's 40/58 (I don't have this for the previous month)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico weekly tracker, July 19-21, 1992 RV

Approve 40 (nc)
Disapprove 57 (+1)

Strongly approve 23 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+2)


As you may know, the crowd at President Trump’s rally in Greenville, N.C., chanting “send her back” in reference to Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), a naturalized U.S. citizen who was born in Somalia. Would you say that this chant was...

Racist 58
Not racist 27

Very offensive 51
Somewhat offensive 16
Not very offensive 8
Not offensive at all 14

Very inappropriate 56
Somewhat inappropriate 15
Not very inappropriate 7
Not inappropriate at all 11

[American2020]

Morning Consult Map



https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, July 21-23, 1500 adults including 1212 RV

Note: last week's poll appeared to be a Trump-friendly outlier compared to previous weeks.

Adults:

Approve 41 (-3)
Disapprove 51 (+3)

Strongly approve 24 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+1)

Generic D 42 (+3), Trump 35 (-2)

RV:

Approve 45 (-1)
Disapprove 52 (+1)

Strongly approve 29 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+1)

Generic D 49 (+3), Trump 41 (-1)

GCB (RV only): D 47 (nc), R 40 (nc)

[Person Man]

Morning Consult Map



https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/

Florida is now at -3.

[American2020]

Morning Consult Map



https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/

I corrected my map.



Florida is now at -3.

[Person Man]

Morning Consult Map



https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/

I corrected my map.



Florida is now at -3.

What's really interesting is that in whatever state he is underwater in, there is a majority that disapproves. I think, if he runs a much better campaign than the Democrats, he wins every states he's above -6 in except Virginia. If tangible goes wrong, he loses every state he's under 50%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data tracker, July 22-23, 1118 adults including 963 RV (1-week change)

Adults:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 56 (+1)

Strongly approve 23 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 40 (-3)

RV:

Approve 42 (-2)
Disapprove 57 (+3)

Strongly approve 25 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 41 (-2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fox News, July 21-23, 1004 RV (prior poll June 9-12)

Approve 46 (+1)
Disapprove 51 (-2)

[CookieDamage]

With the morning consult numbers here's where I see the race right now.

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, Ohio.

...Buckeye voters still give Trump a negative 43 - 52 percent job approval rating, compared to a negative 43 - 54 percent score in a June 13, 2018 Quinnipiac University poll.

Former Vice President Joseph Biden leads President Donald Trump 50 - 42 percent in the critical swing state of Ohio, the only leading Democratic candidate to top the Republican incumbent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

The other leading Democratic contenders each are locked in a dead heat with President Trump, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds:

    46 percent for Trump to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders with 45 percent;
    Trump at 46 percent to Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 45 percent;
    44 - 44 percent between Trump and California Sen. Kamala Harris;
    44 - 44 percent between Trump and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg;
    44 percent for Trump to 43 percent for New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker.

Women, black voters and independent voters give Biden his lead in the matchup with Trump. Biden leads 53 - 40 percent among women, as men are split with 46 percent for Biden and 45 percent for Trump. White voters are divided, with 48 percent for Trump and 45 percent for Biden. Black voters go Democratic 84 - 8 percent.

Independent voters go to Biden 55 - 32 percent. Republicans back Trump 86 - 10 percent as Biden leads 96 - 2 percent among Democrats.

"Former Vice President Joseph Biden calls himself a blue-collar guy. With Ohio certainly a blue-collar state, it is no surprise he is the Democrat who runs best against President Donald Trump and is solidly ahead in the Democratic primary in the Buckeye State," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"Biden runs best against President Trump in every Quinnipiac University state poll so far. To get reelected, Trump will need to win the industrial Midwest. Ohio certainly is key to that plan."

https://poll.qu.edu/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=3633

Trump cannot crack 46% against anyone. Ohio will be close in 2020, but I can say the same with Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina. Biden wins Ohio outright, and the difference between Biden and the others looks largely to be name recognition.

I'm guessing that Elizabeth Warren may be too patrician in appeal for Ohio, but not by much if Trump mucks up.

Things are bad for Trump winning re-election when Texas is iffy and implies 400 electoral votes for the Democrat. Ohio implies something between 315 and 375 electoral votes for the Democrat.   

[GeorgiaModerate]

With the morning consult numbers here's where I see the race right now.

That's a pretty good map.

[pbrower2a]

Magellan Strategies, Colorado: "likely voters" (whatever that means at this stage)


Democratic voters have a slight edge in voter intensity heading into the 2020 elections, though Republicans and unaffiliated voters show a high level of interest as well.

Currently, Colorado voters prefer Democrats to have control of Congress by a 10-point margin, 47% to 37%, over Republicans.

A majority of voters, 57%, disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President, compared to only 39% who approve of the job he is doing.

President Trump trails a generic Democratic Party candidate by 12 points, 44% to 32% in a 2020 ballot test, with 15% of voters choosing some other candidate and 8% being undecided.

Governor Jared Polis currently has a +12% job approval rating as 49% approve of the job he is doing, 37% disapprove and 14% are unsure.

https://magellanstrategies.com/magellan-strategies-colorado-survey-2020-voters/

More evidence that Colorado is spiraling out of reach for Trump... and probably Senator Corey Gardner as well.

[pbrower2a]

I'm basically starting over with the polls of Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio because I cannot quite locate the last such map. All five states were within ten points of being dead even in 2016, and only one of them looks as if it won't be in 2020. (Guess which one!)

Trump approval:

40% or less
41-44%
45-49% and negative
tie (white)
45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[pbrower2a]

I'm basically starting over with the polls of Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio because I cannot quite locate the last such map. All five states were within ten points of being dead even in 2016, and only one of them looks as if it won't be in 2020. (Guess which one!)

OK, going back to June:

Pollster Zogby did a poll of a few ''battleground states'', there is no matchup but they asked about Trump approval.

AZ : 47/51
FL : 48/50 9obsolete due to a new poll)
MI : 40/61
OH : 46/53 (obsolete due to a new poll)
PA : 44/55
SC : 57/42
WI : 45/53

My observations
-I don't see why the polled SC, it's not really a ''battleground state'', GA or NC would have been more logical
-Ohio numbers are a bit strange considering how well republicans did last year in the state and considering that Trump had a 53% approval rate according to exit polls. The fact that Trump has the same approval rate in Ohio than in Wisconsin is hard to believe
-Numbers in PA/AZ/WI are fairly realistic
-Numbers in OH/FL and especially MI are probably understating Trump approval
-It's clear that the best path to victory for dems remains MI + PA + WI

https://zogbyanalytics.com/news/892-the-zogby-poll-president-trump-s-job-approval-rating-in-key-battleground-states

Sure, it is Zogby, but it looks conventional enough.

54-46 Biden/Trump
53-47 Sanders/Trump
52-48 Warren/Trump
52-48 Harris/Trump
51-49 Buttigieg/Trump

Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 767 individuals across the state of Maine. The poll was conducted on June 24th and has a margin of error of 3.5%. The survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users. The results are weighted by the voting demographics. The poll was paid for by Gravis Marketing.

(45-51 approval/disapproval)
 

Trump over Biden 57%-37%
Trump over Sanders 57%-35%
Trump over Warren 60%-28%
Trump over Buttigieg 60%-28%

Trump approval: 60/37 (+23)
Pelosi approval: 30/62 (-32)

http://www.gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/2019-gravis-marketing-kentucky-poll

Texas voters give Trump a split 48 - 49 percent job approval rating. Men approve 55 - 43 percent, as women disapprove 55 - 42 percent.

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2625
 

New York: it is favorability, but favorability is close enough in a state not really in  contest:



We get few polls of New York State, anyway, and none have ever looked good for the President.

https://scri.siena.edu/2019/06/10/voters-on-end-of-session-agenda-yes-on-marijuana-55-40

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative
tie (white)
45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

Most other polls have been superseded or involve the 50-state polling of Morning Consult, and I would contaminate neither this nor that collection.

(Please do not discuss this map until I complete adding polls back to June 1, 2019).

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Gravis is not nonpartisan, incidentally.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, July 25, 1992 RV

(Comparison is to their most recent weekly tracker, but this poll is not part of that series.)

Approve 41 (+1)
Disapprove 57 (nc)

Strongly approve 24 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Michigan: Climate Nexus, July 14-17 820 RV

Approve 42
Disapprove 54

Strongly approve 19
Strongly disapprove 42

Biden 49, Trump 36
Sanders 48, Trump 37
Warren 44, Trump 38
Harris 41, Trump 38
Buttigieg 40, Trump 37
Booker 39, Trump 37

[pbrower2a]

Michigan: Climate Nexus, July 14-17 820 RV

Approve 42
Disapprove 54

Strongly approve 19
Strongly disapprove 42

Biden 49, Trump 36
Sanders 48, Trump 37
Warren 44, Trump 38
Harris 41, Trump 38
Buttigieg 40, Trump 37
Booker 39, Trump 37

It corroborates a June poll with similar measures of approval and disapproval. This poll does something new, subdividing voters on what matters heavily to voters. On hot-button issues that have little to do with either the environment or the economy, these issues might be decisive to voters:

abortion 11%
gun policy 8%
opioid epidemic 4%
education 10%
foreign policy 4%
terrorism 9%
composition of the Supreme Court 4%


Climate change really is serious because it will influence energy use, agricultural activity (agriculture is a bigger part of the Michigan economy than outsiders realize), recreational opportunities, and the overall quality of life.

How Michigan voters see climate change:

very worried 32%
somewhat worried 33%
not too worried 23%
not at all worried 12%

They believe that the auto industry is extremely important to the state's economy. Even so, Michiganders are pro-environment.

But even if vehicle emissions are a problem, voters recognize a possible solution:

MI3...As you may know, individuals that purchase or lease an electric vehicle can receive a federal tax credit of upto $7,500. However, this credit is only available for the first 200,000 electric vehicles sold by each manufacturer. Given what you know about the electric vehicle tax credit, do you agree or disagree with the following statement:The federal tax credit for electric vehicles should extend beyond each manufacturer’s first 200,000 vehicles.

Strongly agree 36%
Somewhat agree 30%
Somewhat disagree 11%
Strongly disagree 7%
Not sure 15%

[Person Man]

The ironic thing is that Michigan May be the least affected by climates change out of most places.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac, July 25-28, 1306 RV (change from early June)

Approve 40 (-2)
Disapprove 54 (+1)

Strongly approve 28 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 47 (+1)

2020 (change from May):

Definitely vote for Trump 32 (+1)
Consider voting for Trump 12 (nc)
Definitely not vote for Trump 54 (nc)

[President Johnson]

Quinnipiac, July 25-28, 1306 RV (change from early June)

Approve 40 (-2)
Disapprove 54 (+1)

Strongly approve 28 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 47 (+1)

2020 (change from May):

Definitely vote for Trump 32 (+1)
Consider voting for Trump 12 (nc)
Definitely not vote for Trump 54 (nc)

Given how much insanity he's shown in the past few days, this is still a shockingly high number even though a bad sign for anyone with reelection hopes. But I guess some of his supporters are just irredeemable. They would still support him even if he openly said "yes, I am a racist".

[pbrower2a]

Early prediction: Ohio and Iowa will have the sharpest Democratic swings from 2016 to 2020.