Maine-Gravis: All Democrats ahead of Trump

[Tender Branson]

54-46 Biden/Trump
53-47 Sanders/Trump
52-48 Warren/Trump
52-48 Harris/Trump
51-49 Buttigieg/Trump

Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 767 individuals across the state of Maine. The poll was conducted on June 24th and has a margin of error of 3.5%. The survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users. The results are weighted by the voting demographics. The poll was paid for by Gravis Marketing.

http://orlando-politics.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Maine-Jun-26-2019.pdf

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

If this is true it looks like the Democratic nominee and Donald Trump are each guaranteed 1 Electoral Vote and Maine at Large is now a true swing state but this is  Gravis so I will wait for further confirmation.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Far from 2008 / 2012 results, still in play for Trump and with these numbers, he should hold on to that one electoral vote (lean R / toss-up). A lean / likely D state at a whole.

[mds32]

Trump will probably win at-large.

[Eraserhead]

Junk poll!

[Skye]

Trump will probably win at-large.

Bold claim.

Though I can see Trump winning ME if he wins the popular vote.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They should poll ME 2

[Senator Incitatus]

Trump will probably win at-large.

Bold claim.

Though I can see Trump winning ME if he wins the popular vote.

I think if he somehow wins the "popular vote" he easily carries Maine and Minnesota. But he doesn't need to carry it to actually win the election, obviously.

[mds32]

Trump will probably win at-large.

Bold claim.

Though I can see Trump winning ME if he wins the popular vote.

He can probably win at-large without the popular vote. He won't win the popular vote unless he's getting above 35% of the vote in California plus what he got in 2016.

[SleepyHenry]

Trump will certainly not win CD-01. At-large is lean Dem and CD-02 is a Tossup/Tilt R situation.

[Xing]

Not a great poll for Democrats, even if it is Gravis. It would be hard to imagine ME-AL voting to the right of MI/PA/WI, but I suppose it’s possible.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Not a great poll for Democrats, even if it is Gravis. It would be hard to imagine ME-AL voting to the right of MI/PA/WI, but I suppose it’s possible.

It is one of the most rural, white, and old states.

I see Maine as a very persuadable state. In a close election (let's say D+1 popular vote), it probably votes Trump. However, if the election ends up being a big win for dems (let's say D+8 popular vote), I could see Maine being D+12 or higher.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Maine might vote to the right of the nation as a whole in 2020.  Whether that could translate into a Trump win remains to be seen.

[TML]

Numbers like these suggest that northern Maine will probably go R (IMO, it would probably take a margin of D+10 or more statewide in order for northern ME to flip back).

[eric82oslo]

Maine might vote to the right of the nation as a whole in 2020.  Whether that could translate into a Trump win remains to be seen.

It will not as long as Yang is the candidate. So far, Maine and Oregon have been the two states where his polling has been the strongest.

[ShamDam]

I think between Maine and New Hampshire, New England is the next region of the country that could drift to the right if the Democrats take it for granted (even as the Sun Belt moves left). It's such a comparatively white and rural region that it feels like its "fundamentals" aren't aligned with its voting patterns, and that often indicates a change could be afoot.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Maine might vote to the right of the nation as a whole in 2020.  Whether that could translate into a Trump win remains to be seen.

It will not as long as Yang is the candidate. So far, Maine and Oregon have been the two states where his polling has been the strongest.

Stop the Yang trolling, for the love of God.

[eric82oslo]

Maine might vote to the right of the nation as a whole in 2020.  Whether that could translate into a Trump win remains to be seen.

It will not as long as Yang is the candidate. So far, Maine and Oregon have been the two states where his polling has been the strongest.

Stop the Yang trolling, for the love of God.

You can't respect that people have different favourites? You don't believe in democracy then?

[MT Treasurer]

Probably the most vulnerable Clinton state for Democrats, and definitely more likely to flip than VA/CO/NV, lol.

[mds32]

Maine might vote to the right of the nation as a whole in 2020.  Whether that could translate into a Trump win remains to be seen.

It will not as long as Yang is the candidate. So far, Maine and Oregon have been the two states where his polling has been the strongest.

Stop the Yang trolling, for the love of God.

It's not like cheerleading doesn't happen anywhere else on these threads lol

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I think between Maine and New Hampshire, New England is the next region of the country that could drift to the right if the Democrats take it for granted (even as the Sun Belt moves left). It's such a comparatively white and rural region that it feels like its "fundamentals" aren't aligned with its voting patterns, and that often indicates a change could be afoot.

Right now voting is still largely being determined by religious vs. secular. But if it does move urban v. rural generally and religion is less of a factor, while issues like immigration and trade remain top of the list, well just remember rural New England's history when it comes to those two issues. It definitely shows signs of happening in NH and ME. And we saw glimpes of it in parts of CT and VT as well in 2016.