Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac: nationwide.

This is the first nationwide poll that the Q has taken following the release of the Mueller Report. Because there is no overt question of approval or disapproval of the President, I expect such data to be released tomorrow (May 1).

However, the question is posed: will you or will you not vote for Donald Trump in 2020?

  

TREND: In the 2020 general election for president, if Donald Trump is the Republican candidate, would you definitely vote for him, consider voting for him, or would you definitely not vote for him?

                     Def     Consdr  DefNot
                     Vote    Voting  Vote     DK/NA
 
Apr 30, 2019         33      13      52        2
Mar 28, 2019         30      13      53        3

There is no significant change. Q does not show any reduction of Trump support following the report from last month. Still: definitely not vote (for Trump) means that the President will not get a majority of the vote. "Definitely vote" and "consider" add to 46%, which is close to what he got in 2016, and is up 3% from last month.

Trump wins if he gets 46% vote and Democrats simply run up the vote in a few states, especially California and New York while Trump gets bare pluralities in almost all genuine swing states as he did in 2016. At 45% he loses, so he needs to win all the "consider" votes in 2016.  

Other data:

Among Democrats and Democratic-leaners, Presidential support  for those running are 38% for Biden, 12% for Warren, 11% for Sanders, 10% for Buttegieg, 8% for Harris, and 5% at most for anyone else. Biden has an edge among Democratic or Democratic-leaning voters 50 or older. We may be seeing a rapid narrowing of the Democratic field with some quick fades or people who never had a chance to begin with. Because this thread does not have the primaries as a focus, I can say little more here.

70% of Americans say that they could vote for an openly-gay male as President, but only 36% think America could do so.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2617

[Progressive Pessimist]

New Hampshire: Suffolk, April 25-28, 800 RV

Approve 41
Disapprove 53

It seems to resemble his national numbers.

[GeorgiaModerate]

CNN/SSRS, April 25-28, 1007 adults (prior poll March 14-17)

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (+1)

Strongly approve 35 (not asked in March)
Strongly disapprove 42

Impeach Trump?

Yes 37 (+1)
No 59 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Marist, April 24-29, 1017 adults including 840 RV (prior poll March 25-27)

Adults:

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (+2)

Strongly approve 26 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-2)

RV:

Approve 42 (-2)
Disapprove 54 (+4)

Strongly approve 27 (not in March data)
Strongly disapprove 41

Vote for Trump in 2020?

Definitely yes 33 (-2)
Definitely no 54 (nc)

[pbrower2a]

From the moribund "1.4" thread:

Marist, April 24-29, 1017 adults including 840 RV (prior poll March 25-27)

Adults:

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (+2)

Strongly approve 26 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-2)

RV:

Approve 42 (-2)
Disapprove 54 (+4)

Strongly approve 27 (not in March data)
Strongly disapprove 41

Vote for Trump in 2020?

Definitely yes 33 (-2)
Definitely no 54 (nc)

CNN/SSRS, April 25-28, 1007 adults (prior poll March 14-17)

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (+1)

Strongly approve 35 (not asked in March)
Strongly disapprove 42

Impeach Trump?

Yes 37 (+1)
No 59 (nc)

Again, "strongly disapprove" is close to total approval. I am surprised that the Mueller report has changed few minds on whether Donald Trump is an acceptable President. As with many news stories that look bad to a majority of Americans, such seems to strengthen contempt and cause supporters to defend the president with greater vehemence. Good news for him might give him more approval, but at this point those who disapprove may be thinking that anything good happens despite him. (I expect this with his infrastructure proposal).

It is obviously premature to try to impeach President Trump. Investigate? Such has started. The negative ads will practically write themselves.


"Adults" and "registered voters" get much the same numbers. I am guessing that practically everyone now a registered voter as of the 2018 election will vote in 2020.

The "definitely yes" is below the percentage of the vote that Hoover got in 1932 or that Carter got in 1980. I expect Trump to win most of those who cannot say definitely "yes" or "no" -- but he must win practically all of them to get the plurality of votes in enough states in which to win re-election.   Trump won the Electoral college with 46% of the popular vote. 45% loses for him unless the Left side of the political spectrum splits significantly.  

The Economist/YouGov (weekly), April 27-30, 1500 adults including

Adults:

Approve 42 (nc)
Disapprove 50 (nc)

Strongly approve 24 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 39 (nc)

2020: Generic D 42 (+1), Trump 34 (-1)

RV:

Approve 44 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (+1)

Strongly approve 28 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+1)

2020: Generic D 49 (+2), Trump 38 (-1)

One thing is consistent about Trump: polling results. Does anything in the above three polls suggest that President Trump will be re-elected?

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov (weekly), April 27-30, 1500 adults including

Adults:

Approve 42 (nc)
Disapprove 50 (nc)

Strongly approve 24 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 39 (nc)

2020: Generic D 42 (+1), Trump 34 (-1)

RV:

Approve 44 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (+1)

Strongly approve 28 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+1)

2020: Generic D 49 (+2), Trump 38 (-1)

[HisGrace]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1122111857777631232

But that includes all polls since the term start? Because Obama wasn't at 55% in late April 2011. Operation Neptune Spear got him back into a net positive approval that lasted to July/August. Still terrible for Drumpf.

I think the point is on the aggregate he's been less popular than any other first term president, even ones who lost like Ford, Carter, and HW.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

CNN/SSRS, April 25-28, 1007 adults (prior poll March 14-17)

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (+1)

Strongly approve 35 (not asked in March)
Strongly disapprove 42

Impeach Trump?

Yes 37 (+1)
No 59 (nc)

RV:

44/53%   (strongly 37/43%) MOE 3.9%

RV Very Enthu Pres (I guess very enthusiastic about voting for president):

46/52% (strongly 42/47%) MOE 4.5%


Seems like Trump's MAGA-base are more enthusiastic, but still is too smal. Interesting how/if the Democratic, perhaps, dirty primary will influence that.

[pbrower2a]

CNN/SSRS, April 25-28, 1007 adults (prior poll March 14-17)

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (+1)

Strongly approve 35 (not asked in March)
Strongly disapprove 42

Impeach Trump?

Yes 37 (+1)
No 59 (nc)

RV:

44/53%   (strongly 37/43%) MOE 3.9%

RV Very Enthu Pres (I guess very enthusiastic about voting for president):

46/52% (strongly 42/47%) MOE 4.5%


Seems like Trump's MAGA-base are more enthusiastic, but still is too smal. Interesting how/if the Democratic, perhaps, dirty primary will influence that.

The MAGA types will be excited to canvass, but they are going to find lots of people hostile to the President -- and the MAGA types will not have a clue. The people hostile to Trump will remain hostile to them in part because such people are more educated and more firm in their confidence of their facts, and less likely to change their minds after hearing a superficial argument that Trump is the most wonderful thing to have ever happened in American politics.

The MAGA base, as is so with extremists, is much more enthusiastic about its cause than people behind a more moderate opponent. But -- and this is a big but -- there will be little room between enthusiastic support and rejection. I thought that supporters of Goldwater and McGovern, whom the other Side cast as dangerous radicals, were much more excited than the usual supporters of a pol closer to the center -- let us say Nixon or Clinton. But one vote from someone who supports a pol strongly and a vote from someone who just can't vote for the one with the seemingly-radical ideas and votes hesitantly counts just as much.   

I see Biden getting close to 40% of the support within the Democratic Party at this stage, and this early such looks like the prospect of a swift end to the 'quarterback controversy' for the nomination for President among Democrats.

It's your choice to decide how much of this is opinion, how much is experience, and how much is my beliefs. The best chance for Trump getting re-elected has been a splintered Democratic electorate, and even hat seems to be fading.   

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac, April 26-29, 1044 RV (1-month change)

Approve 41 (+2)
Disapprove 55 (nc)

Strongly approve 30 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 46 (-1)

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2618
Quinnipiac University National Poll

American voters give President Trump a negative 41 - 55 percent job approval rating, compared to a negative 38 - 55 percent rating March 5, before the release of the Mueller Report. Today, there is a wide gender gap as women disapprove 62 - 34 percent while men are divided, with 48 percent approving and 46 percent disapproving.

RV:

41(+2)/55(+0)%    (strongly 30/46%)

American voters say 57 - 28 percent that Donald Trump committed crimes before he became president, according to a Quinnipiac University National Poll released today.

This compares to results of a March 5 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh- pe-ack) University National Poll, before release of the Mueller Report, in which voters said 64 - 24 percent that President Trump committed crimes before he was elected.

In today's survey, 46 percent of voters say Trump committed crimes since he became president and 46 percent say he did not commit crimes.

But American voters say 66 - 29 percent that Congress should not begin impeachment of President Trump. Democrats support impeachment 56 - 38 percent. Opposition to impeachment is 95 - 4 percent among Republicans and 70 - 27 percent among independent voters.

Investigating Trump distracts Congress from other national issues, 53 percent of voters say, while 43 percent say Congress can investigate Trump and work on other national issues at the same time.

Special Counsel Robert Mueller conducted a fair investigation, voters say 72 - 18 percent, including 65 - 25 percent among Republicans.

Voters say 51 - 38 percent that the Mueller Report did not clear President Trump of any wrongdoing.

American voters also say 54 - 42 percent that Trump "attempted to derail or obstruct the investigation into the Russian interference in the 2016 election."

Committed a crime, but should not be impeached? Does it mean that they think crime is not serious enough?

[pbrower2a]

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2618
Quinnipiac University National Poll

American voters give President Trump a negative 41 - 55 percent job approval rating, compared to a negative 38 - 55 percent rating March 5, before the release of the Mueller Report. Today, there is a wide gender gap as women disapprove 62 - 34 percent while men are divided, with 48 percent approving and 46 percent disapproving.

RV:

41(+2)/55(+0)%    (strongly 30/46%)

American voters say 57 - 28 percent that Donald Trump committed crimes before he became president, according to a Quinnipiac University National Poll released today.

This compares to results of a March 5 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh- pe-ack) University National Poll, before release of the Mueller Report, in which voters said 64 - 24 percent that President Trump committed crimes before he was elected.

In today's survey, 46 percent of voters say Trump committed crimes since he became president and 46 percent say he did not commit crimes.

But American voters say 66 - 29 percent that Congress should not begin impeachment of President Trump. Democrats support impeachment 56 - 38 percent. Opposition to impeachment is 95 - 4 percent among Republicans and 70 - 27 percent among independent voters.

Investigating Trump distracts Congress from other national issues, 53 percent of voters say, while 43 percent say Congress can investigate Trump and work on other national issues at the same time.

Special Counsel Robert Mueller conducted a fair investigation, voters say 72 - 18 percent, including 65 - 25 percent among Republicans.

Voters say 51 - 38 percent that the Mueller Report did not clear President Trump of any wrongdoing.

American voters also say 54 - 42 percent that Trump "attempted to derail or obstruct the investigation into the Russian interference in the 2016 election."

Committed a crime, but should not be impeached? Does it mean that they think crime is not serious enough?

This may reflect the consensus that impeachment is futility at this point. Add to this, many people are being numbed by the bad behavior of this President. Yes, it is sickening. Investigation comes long before impeachment. 

[Comrade Funk]

[The Mikado]

What poll is that from?

[pbrower2a]

More from "the Q":

Quinnipiac, April 26-29, 1044 RV (1-month change)

Approve 41 (+2)
Disapprove 55 (nc)

Strongly approve 30 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 46 (-1)



[/quote]

The Mueller Report seems to have little effect. Maybe some people believe that it exculpates him, and they are increases in support. Still, strong disapproval is higher than total approval, a very bad sign for the President.

Other pertinent data:

1. Americans are split down the middle 46-46 on whether the President committed any crimes.  The 46% who believe that the President committed crimes may be an amazing coincidence with "strong disapproval". I would guess that most Americans expect the President to adhere to the minimum standard of behavior of not violating criminal statutes... but I would expect an even higher standard -- to avoid doing something licit but morally objectionable.

Criminal conduct is the most obvious cause for impeaching any elected official. We cannot tolerate war crimes, corruption, or obstruction of justice by the President. I may have pooh-poohed the charges of perjury by Bill Clinton on the grounds that his sexual excapades were not legitimate objects of public concern. Whatever one's ideology, the President (or any other elected official) must not get away with certain things.

So 46% of Americans polled believe either that

(1) the Mueller Report is inconclusive
(2) President Trump is innocent of the offenses even if some political rogues acted on their own contrary to his wishes
(3) the President is the victim of a miscarriage of justice, as in a 'witch-hunt'
(4) the President did such things, but it is OK because he is President and deserves our undying loyalty no matter what he does.

(1) and (3) are matters of interpretation; (2) is absurd; (4) is an acquiescence with dictatorial or despotic government under 'the right conditions' such as getting one's cultural or economic agenda achieved in legislation.

2. Voters are 66-29 against impeachment. Maybe impeachment is premature because of its futility at this stage, and it might not be effective until the summer of 2020. If I am a partisan Democrat I would hold off until a failure to impeach and remove a President for partisan reasons alone makes electoral defeat for a Republican pol a near-certainty. The ultimate impeachment of the President is his rejection in his re-election bid.

If you wonder about me... I do not like political failure, but I am willing to see the Other Side get caught defending the misconduct of the current President and facing electoral defeat.  A new Democratic President, a continuing House majority, and a new Democratic Senate majority will make practically every Trump policy moot.

The investigation will continue, and it would be wise for Republicans to distance themselves from the President's misdeeds.

3. Voters believe, 51-38, that the Mueller Report did not clear the President of wrongdoing.  With the 46% who believe that the President committed a crime, I would guess that about 5% of voters believe that the wrongdoing  is trivial. Such is one possible interpretation.

Presumption of innocence in criminal cases is a cornerstone of American jurisprudence, and it is best that we make no exceptions on this.

4. The news media is an important part of democracy, 66 percent of American voters say, while 23 percent say the media is the "enemy of the people." Republicans say 49 - 36 percent that the news media is the enemy of the people. Every other listed party, gender, education, age and racial group says the media is an important part of democracy.

By 52 - 35 percent, voters trust the media more than Trump to tell the truth about important issues. Republicans trust Trump more than the media 82 - 9 percent. Trusting the media more are Democrats 92 - 2 percent and independent voters 54 - 29 percent.

Americans have accepted the term "Public Enemy" in the past to describe criminal marauders such as John Dillinger, the Barrow-Parker gang, "Pretty Boy Floyd", and the like. But even when it was being used to condemn overt criminals devoid of any excuses, it was never applied to opponents of political leadership. "Enemy of the People" was a stock phrase in Stalin's Soviet Union for someone doomed to torture and execution for running afoul of the dictator.

People who associate the stock phrase "Enemy of the People" with Stalin find it as appalling as "Master Race" or "Final Solution" among Nazi scum. Maybe something is wrong in American education -- we need to know what the American Way of Life excludes if America is not to become a nightmare like Nazi Germany, Stalin's Soviet Union, Saddam Hussein's Iraq, Apartheid-era South Africa, contemporary Iran, or any other political order that demands unqualified obedience and personal subordination.

5. Employers should not be allowed to fire someone based on their sexual orientation or sexual identity, American voters say 92 - 6 percent.

Well, at least we have grown up on something as a nation. "Enemy of the People"? Our historical memories are too short on that one -- especially for Republicans, who used to be the staunchest anti-Communists in American public life.

[Progressive Pessimist]

That looks about right. Evangelicals are such hacks.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/441749-trump-approval-on-economy-at-new-high-cnn-poll
Trump approval on economy at new high: CNN poll

President Trump’s approval rating on the economy has hit a new high, according to a CNN poll released on Thursday.

A majority of respondents — 56 percent — said they approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, compared with 41 percent who disapproved.

He'd win reelection by PV, if he'd quit twitter. He won't, so it's still Lean D.

[Person Man]

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/441749-trump-approval-on-economy-at-new-high-cnn-poll
Trump approval on economy at new high: CNN poll

President Trump’s approval rating on the economy has hit a new high, according to a CNN poll released on Thursday.

A majority of respondents — 56 percent — said they approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, compared with 41 percent who disapproved.

He'd win reelection by PV, if he'd quit twitter. He won't, so it's still Lean D.

Pretty much. People are fat and happy living off their loans. As long as that continues, trump probably has a chance.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kaiser Family Foundation, April 23-28, 1200 adults.  This is not their regular monthly tracker, but I'll use the last one of those (April 11-16) for comparison.

Approve 43 (+2)
Disapprove 51 (-4)

Strongly approve 26 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 41 (-3)

[pbrower2a]

Source unknown, but it makes sense.  Take out the Hispanic component of Roman Catholics, and Catholics are probably much like mainline Protestants in accepting or rejecting Trump.

All that I can figure on Evangelical Christians is that they have come to believe that Donald Trump, however godless he may be, serves as a tool of God as no prior President has been.

[Person Man]

[/img]

Source unknown, but it makes sense.  Take out the Hispanic component of Roman Catholics, and Catholics are probably much like mainline Protestants in accepting or rejecting Trump.

All that I can figure on Evangelical Christians is that they have come to believe that Donald Trump, however godless he may be, serves as a tool of God as no prior President has been.
[/quote]

Evangelical Christianity isn’t Christianity.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, April 17-30, 1024 adults (change from early April)

Approve 46 (+1)
Disapprove 50 (-1)

I believe this is Trump's best approval rating from Gallup.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I don't know if Gallup has caught the trend or if it is just an outlier (likely it is), but I still expect we'll have a Post-Mueller bump. Mueller-fever has had the all MSM:s airtime in two long years. Mueller will testify in May, and, I'd say, that Collusion-coverage will mostly dies off by the fall.

Whatever the NEW news coverage will be about, it'll likely be way better for Trump than Mueller's investigation coverage with talking heads seeing the things.

[The Dowager Mod]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=318051.0
New thread.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Except that even if Democrats decide to drop it, Trump won't because of his ego. Perhaps because he never expected to win, he hates the idea that outside factors were what got him the victory. He can't accept the idea that he won because of luck.