Rate Wisconsin

[ElectionsGuy]

Vote in previous threads here:

AZ

Safe R: 125
Likely R:
Lean R:
Toss-Up/Tilt R: 11
Toss-Up/Tilt D:
Lean D:
Likely D:
Safe D: 183

Republican: 136
Democratic: 183

I just want to clarify methodology here. There will be options two deviations away from the average prognostication rating. The three I'm relying on are Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Cook Political Report. If 2/3 think a state is a toss-up but one thinks its Lean D, the average rating I'll be referring to is a toss-up. In general, refer to the consensus map on 270towin.

[Skye]

For now, given Trump's awful numbers, I'll rate it Tilt D, and that's being a little generous.

[Woody]

Toss-up/Tilt R due to how close the gubernatorial race was and how Hagedorn managed to upset the supreme court race. I'd also like to add I like these new graphics and features to the site.

[JA]

Lean D

[😥]

For now, given Trump's awful numbers, I'll rate it Tilt D, and that's being a little generous.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Tossup.  Tilt D to tilt R depending on nominee.

[S019]

Pure tossup


Voted Tilt R

[Big Abraham]

Tossup.  Tilt D to tilt R depending on nominee.

[dw93]

Tossup.  Tilt D to tilt R depending on nominee.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Tossup/tilt-D

[Hammy]

Tossup.  Tilt D to tilt R depending on nominee.

[SN2903]

Lean R/Tilt R

[TDAS04]

Tossup/tilt-D

[John Dule]

Here's the thing: Trump's unpopular in Wisconsin, but there's no guarantee that that'll stay constant once Democrats have coalesced around a nominee. If it's Harris or Beto, I could see them having even lower favorables than Trump in the Midwest, and that's ultimately what'll matter.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Here's the thing: Trump's unpopular in Wisconsin, but there's no guarantee that that'll stay constant once Democrats have coalesced around a nominee. If it's Harris or Beto, I could see them having even lower favorables than Trump in the Midwest, and that's ultimately what'll matter.

I also think it's prudent to assume Trump is underpolling by several % in the Upper Midwest given what we saw in both 2016 and 2018.

What we saw in 2018 was Democrats doing very well across the board in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.

2016 was more of a one-off in terms of him out-performing his approval numbers, because Clinton was almost as unpopular as he was and it came down to turnout.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Tossup.  Tilt D to tilt R depending on nominee.

[Politician]

Lean R, not part of the Dem path to 270 any more.  Probably only flips in a recession. 

[Progressive Pessimist]

Pure tossup.

[Mr. Smith]

True Toss-up.

Going with Tilt D, because I doubt the minority vote in Milwaukee will be so taken for granted.

[Koharu]

Tossup.  Tilt D to tilt R depending on nominee.

[MT Treasurer]

Tilt R. It’s obviously not safe for Rs, but I’m pretty sure it will vote to the right of AZ and PA. Democrats don’t necessarily need it to win the election.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely Dem: Voter ID laws have been struck down by even the Gorsech Crt in MI & WI and PA

[Dr. MB]

Tossup, but Trump is slightly favored.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt R. It’s obviously not safe for Rs, but I’m pretty sure it will vote to the right of AZ and PA. Democrats don’t necessarily need it to win the election.

Not in a realignment election like this election is turning out to be. As I said earlier, the Gorsech Crt has struck down Voter ID laws in MI and WI and upheld them in TX

[Wazza [INACTIVE]]

Tossup