Rate Wisconsin

[Frenchrepublican]

Tossup, voted tilt R.

The main problem for democrats in Wisconsin is the lack of a large democratic trending metropolitan area. Dane county is trending toward democrats but the county is only 12% of the statewide electorate. The Milwaukee area is a bit weird, in 2016 Trump underperformed significantly in Waukeshsa County but it’s likley that many Romney/Johnson voters have warmed up to Trump and they will likely come back to home in 2020, thus I could easily see democratic numbers reverting back to what they were in 2012 and it’s not unimaginable to see Trump winning Waukesha 65/33.

I think Trump wins WI 50/49

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The convention is in Milwaukee, and Dems will get the boost

[Frenchrepublican]

The convention is in Milwaukee, and Dems will get the boost

Lol
Democrats held their 2012 convention in Charlotte and they lost NC, in 2016 they held it in Philly and the lost PA
There is absolutely no link between the place where you hold the convention and how well you do in the state in question

[Frenchrepublican]

Voted Tossup/Tilt R. Trump is most certainly not maxed out in rural WI yet. Whereas he basically is in places like PA, AZ, GA and TX

If democrats continue to lose ground in WI, they will likely continue to lose ground in PA too

[Orser67]

I think WI is probably the tipping point state of 2020, and it's certainly one of the five most important states (PA, MI, FL, AZ). I voted Lean D in the poll because I think Trump has about a 1-in-3 chance of winning an electoral vote majority.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Voted Tossup/Tilt R. Trump is most certainly not maxed out in rural WI yet. Whereas he basically is in places like PA, AZ, GA and TX

If democrats continue to lose ground in WI, they will likely continue to lose ground in PA too

Nope. PA’s suburbs are growing and are a ton more D friendly than WI’s. And while Dems could stand to shed more votes in rural PA (which they probably will), Clinton got 15-25% in nearly every rural PA county. Whereas she got 25-40% in much of rural WI. It’s therefore much easier for Democrats to lose more ground in rural WI than rural PA

"Growing" is a rather generous term here. Maybe by Pennsylvania standards. They are most certainly doing healthier than the rural and former industrial regions of the state though.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The GoP doesn't realize, they're not running against Hilary: Beto, Harris or Klobuchar can win WI, as a stronger nominee

[Hollywood]

It's a pure toss-up cause I don't know who the candidate is going to be. 

[Farmlands]

President Trump is extremely unpopular in the Midwest now, failing to have made the changes people wanted in healthcare. Given that it elected him by less than a percentage point, hugely soured on him afterwards and even the more popular Walker couldn't get reelected, I can't see how this is anything below Lean D.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Trump only won WI because they hated Hillary Clinton more than they hated Trump, and because everyone assumed Hillary would win the state and the election, so why bother?

Trump will not win the state in 2020 unless the economy is absolutely booming and the Democratic nominee is absolutely awful.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Tossup/Tilt D.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Voted Tossup/Tilt R. Trump is most certainly not maxed out in rural WI yet. Whereas he basically is in places like PA, AZ, GA and TX

Your fantasy urban-rural divide maps showing Republicans at 80%+ in every rural county are not going to happen, sorry.

It’s literally already beginning to happen LOL

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

If you held ten different elections you'd probably see Republicans winning six of them. Toss up.

Trump only won WI because they hated Hillary Clinton more than they hated Trump, and because everyone assumed Hillary would win the state and the election, so why bother?

Trump will not win the state in 2020 unless the economy is absolutely booming and the Democratic nominee is absolutely awful.

I think poor-fit Hillary is a really underrated story in the Midwest (especially in Minnesota and Wisconsin) but you've gotta zoom out and realize it's not just her. Feingold, Burke, Neubauer - lots of Democrats of all strips have trouble getting over the top here. So I think it's reasonable to expect Dems to rebound a little from 2016 in some areas but not to expect it to be without a lot of hard fighting.

[ElectionsGuy]

Trump only won WI because they hated Hillary Clinton more than they hated Trump, and because everyone assumed Hillary would win the state and the election, so why bother?

Trump will not win the state in 2020 unless the economy is absolutely booming and the Democratic nominee is absolutely awful.

Wrong!

Hillary had higher favorabilities than Trump, but Trump won bigly with those who viewed both candidates unfavorably (which in 2016 was a very large amount) 60-23. So take this as a lesson, you don't have to be the better liked or approved of person to win a state or election.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Trump only won WI because they hated Hillary Clinton more than they hated Trump, and because everyone assumed Hillary would win the state and the election, so why bother?

Trump will not win the state in 2020 unless the economy is absolutely booming and the Democratic nominee is absolutely awful.

Wrong!

Hillary had higher favorabilities than Trump, but Trump won bigly with those who viewed both candidates unfavorably (which in 2016 was a very large amount) 60-23. So take this as a lesson, you don't have to be the better liked or approved of person to win a state or election.

Nearly 2/3 of Wisconsinites didn't think Trump was qualified to be President. He won anyway, because people voted for him despite this.



Once again, a healthy majority of Wisconsinites didn't think he had the temperament to be President. He won anyway.



A huge majority of the state was bothered by his misogyny. Those who were only "somewhat" bothered broke for him bigly.



People who didn't think either candidate was suitable broke for Trump bigly.



Once again, numbers that should be death to a candidate. But it didn't matter to a good portion of voters.



Is this a small group? Yes. Is it symptomatic of the mood of 2016? Absolutely.

And finally....



Late undecideds broke for Trump. Really, all over the country (which is why the polls never picked up on the fact that Trump was winning), but this speaks to the perfect storm of 2016. Comey's reopening of the investigation into Clinton's emails killed her.

Opinion of Trump has not improved in Wisconsin since then. They have not come around. Trump's razor-thin majority depended on large numbers of people who didn't think he was qualified, didn't think he was suited for the job, and were bothered by his behavior, voting for him.  And the reason they voted for him was their dislike of Hillary Clinton, and concerns about the email investigations, which they were reminded of at the last minute*. That's not a sustainable base of voters.

I would be shocked to see him win the state in 2020.  There would need to be 2016-like weird things happening.  Republicans don't like him, and Democrats are energized against him.

* And that's another point: Wisconsinites didn't want to see a President mired in scandals and investigations. Trump is mired in scandals and investigations. That's a bad sign for him.

[Senator Spark]

Toss-up/Tilt R

[Orser67]

Trump only won WI because they hated Hillary Clinton more than they hated Trump, and because everyone assumed Hillary would win the state and the election, so why bother?

Wrong!

Hillary had higher favorabilities than Trump, but Trump won bigly with those who viewed both candidates unfavorably (which in 2016 was a very large amount) 60-23. So take this as a lesson, you don't have to be the better liked or approved of person to win a state or election.

The graphs show that Clinton had higher favorable ratings, but they don't show the depth of disapproval for either candidate. Most of the people who held unfavorable views of both candidates and voted for Trump probably did dislike Hillary more. So while more people disliked Trump, there may have been more people who hated Hillary.

[Xing]

I thought it was a Titanium D blue wall state after Evers gave Walker a 1.1% Blanching, but after Hagedorn’s massive landslide of 0.4%, it’s back to being a Titanium R state that’s far less likely to flip than Kansas or Utah.

In all seriousness, pure Toss-Up, gun to my head, Tilt D. One of the few states where Atlas has tended to underestimate Democrats since 2016. Certainly not going R if Pennsylvania is flipping by 2% or more.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Tossup, voted tilt R.

The main problem for democrats in Wisconsin is the lack of a large democratic trending metropolitan area. Dane county is trending toward democrats but the county is only 12% of the statewide electorate. The Milwaukee area is a bit weird, in 2016 Trump underperformed significantly in Waukeshsa County but it’s likley that many Romney/Johnson voters have warmed up to Trump and they will likely come back to home in 2020, thus I could easily see democratic numbers reverting back to what they were in 2012 and it’s not unimaginable to see Trump winning Waukesha 65/33.

I think Trump wins WI 50/49

*Sigh*

I don't understand why people think this, especially those who don't even live in WI. Waukesha Republicans are too well-educated to embrace Trumpism, so I wholeheartedly disagree with you. I think the next D nominee will get more votes in Waukesha County.

Also, Dane County is growing like crazy. Every year, they make up a larger percentage of the electorate. It's really hard to tell what political direction WI is going.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI isnt an R state. It voted R in one prez election. It is equally divided between D and R's like MI, but leans leftward

[Scottholes 2.0]

WI isnt an R state. It voted R in one prez election. It is equally divided between D and R's like MI, but leans leftward

I generally agree with this, but this is only true if turnout among the AA population in Milwaukee is high like during the Obama years.

And I doubt WOW will trend R while other suburbs across America trend D in 2020, contrary to what Atlas Repubs think.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AA took for granted in 2016, that Clinton was gonna win anyway; however, they werent the only ones to blame,  yuppies crossed over and voted libertarian and for Gary Johnson and Jilll Stein, thinking Hilary had it in thr bag

[Scottholes 2.0]

AA took for granted in 2016, that Clinton was gonna win anyway; however, they werent the only ones to blame,  yuppies crossed over and voted libertarian and for Gary Johnson and Jilll Stein, thinking Hilary had it in thr bag

Yep!

[Frenchrepublican]

WI isnt an R state. It voted R in one prez election. It is equally divided between D and R's like MI, but leans leftward

I generally agree with this, but this is only true if turnout among the AA population in Milwaukee is high like during the Obama years.

And I doubt WOW will trend R while other suburbs across America trend D in 2020, contrary to what Atlas Repubs think.

Why are you doubtful about that ? Contrary to suburbs around Atlanta or Dallas you don’t have a large influx of minority voters, compared to suburban voters of the ACELA corridor those of Waukesha and Washington counties are very conservative on social issues. In the gubernatorial election Walker was still able to win 66% of the vote in Waukesha and in the SC race of last week the conservative candidate won more than two thirds of the vote in the county. Against Sanders or Harris Trump’fould easily win 65% or 66% of the vote in this county.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI isnt an R state. It voted R in one prez election. It is equally divided between D and R's like MI, but leans leftward

I generally agree with this, but this is only true if turnout among the AA population in Milwaukee is high like during the Obama years.

And I doubt WOW will trend R while other suburbs across America trend D in 2020, contrary to what Atlas Repubs think.

Why are you doubtful about that ? Contrary to suburbs around Atlanta or Dallas you don’t have a large influx of minority voters, compared to suburban voters of the ACELA corridor those of Waukesha and Washington counties are very conservative on social issues. In the gubernatorial election Walker was still able to win 66% of the vote in Waukesha and in the SC race of last week the conservative candidate won more than two thirds of the vote in the county. Against Sanders or Harris Trump’fould easily win 65% or 66% of the vote in this county.

WI is the same state that put an end to Paul Ryan's Speakership, by forcing him to retire, and State Crts that reestablished Evers governor powers that Assembly took away, right? Trump is weaker than in 2016, with his ethics