Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP: May not do well in polls, but if public wants Ford defeated and they don't warm up to Del Duca, I think they have an opening.  Lets remember in 2018, almost every poll pre-election showed similarly bad numbers. 

Polls were all over the place before the 2018 election for the NDP.  Some of their numbers were quite good, and those polls stuck with voters, and gave them credibility to get a surge in their favour.

[beesley]

NDP: May not do well in polls, but if public wants Ford defeated and they don't warm up to Del Duca, I think they have an opening.  Lets remember in 2018, almost every poll pre-election showed similarly bad numbers. 

Polls were all over the place before the 2018 election for the NDP.  Some of their numbers were quite good, and those polls stuck with voters, and gave them credibility to get a surge in their favour.

I remember hearing that the memory of Bob Rae's premiership discouraged voters, particularly 905 residents and obviously older voters from voting NDP. To me it hardly could have been decisive given the scale of Ford's victory but I would ask you what do you think of that suggestion?

[Benjamin Frank]

NDP: May not do well in polls, but if public wants Ford defeated and they don't warm up to Del Duca, I think they have an opening.  Lets remember in 2018, almost every poll pre-election showed similarly bad numbers. 

Polls were all over the place before the 2018 election for the NDP.  Some of their numbers were quite good, and those polls stuck with voters, and gave them credibility to get a surge in their favour.

I remember hearing that the memory of Bob Rae's premiership discouraged voters, particularly 905 residents and obviously older voters from voting NDP. To me it hardly could have been decisive given the scale of Ford's victory but I would ask you what do you think of that suggestion?

Very likely since his unpopularity in Ontario was also supposedly a major reason why he didn't win the Liberal leadership.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yes, the ghosts of Bob Rae still linger in this province. Ridiculous really, since the Liberals and the Tories have also had terrible Premiers since then. But, the NDP is judged more harshly.

Possibly one reason why the NDP did better provincially in 2018 than federally in 2011 is that we're further removed from the days of Rae. The more people forgive and forget, the better the NDP will be able to do in the future. But, it will take time. I'm 34 and even I as a child can remember the vitriol against him.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://westernstandardonline.com/2021/05/exclusive-kenney-tells-ucp-caucus-i-want-a-new-base/

Lol.

[King of Kensington]

The 1995 election, incidentally, was the first election in which the 905 area code was in existence and observers recognized the political power of the commuter region surrounding Toronto which had embraced the Common Sense Revolution and delivered all of its seats to the PCs.  In 1990, the NDP didn't do very well there, but it didn't matter as much because it didn't have the political weight it has today.  Most of the 905 is post-1980 suburbia.

[mileslunn]

Yes, the ghosts of Bob Rae still linger in this province. Ridiculous really, since the Liberals and the Tories have also had terrible Premiers since then. But, the NDP is judged more harshly.

Possibly one reason why the NDP did better provincially in 2018 than federally in 2011 is that we're further removed from the days of Rae. The more people forgive and forget, the better the NDP will be able to do in the future. But, it will take time. I'm 34 and even I as a child can remember the vitriol against him.

Even in BC, NDP had same issue its why in 2017 even after 16 years of BC Liberal government and all the baggage still fell short in seats and votes, although by denying BC Liberals a majority were able to form government.  Normally a government in power that long not only loses, but loses badly.  Yes in 2020 they did much better and Horgan by avoiding the mistakes of NDP in the 90s has helped redeem the brand considerably so if NDP does manage to win in Ontario and govern well there is that upside. 

Ironically though in Alberta, NDP doing just fine provincially despite it being a lot more recently and same leader.  Although I don't think Notley was ever as disliked as Glen Clark or Bob Rae and Kenney is also pretty unpopular so not sure Alberta has embraced NDP as more having seen two governments, many are concluding Notley was the least bad of the two and Kenney worse.

[Estrella]

Newfoundland and Labrador is, guess what, on the brink of bankruptcy yet again.

'Big reset' called for debt-ridden N.L. with release of ground-shaking economic report

In order to rein in a soaring public debt and end the long pattern of deficit spending, Greene recommended a five per cent reduction in core government spending, and that operating grants for Memorial University and the College of the North Atlantic be slashed by 30 per cent, at a rate of five per cent annually.

Some of her sharpest points were directed at the health system, which accounts for 37 per cent of public spending. The province also spends 24 per cent more per capita on heath than the Canadian average.

She also recommended the abolishment of Nalcor, the province's energy corporation and the entity that oversees the controversial Muskrat Falls hydroelectric project.

"Our predicament is the result of years of overspending; [government] spending about 25 per cent more than it takes in every year," she said, noting that expenditures soared by 80 per cent over a 15-year period "regardless of changes downward in our revenues."

She said privatization and sell-offs should not be ruled out, noting that "the public sector does not have to do everything. Times have changes and ways of doing things should also change."

Greene said the current governance culture — one that views budgets as "notional" and deficits as something that don't matter — has to end. She said the overall debt sits at more than $47 billion in a province of just over 500,000 residents.

The bolded works out to about 146% of GDP - an independent NL would be the third most indebted country in the world after Japan and Greece.

[mileslunn]

Newfoundland and Labrador is, guess what, on the brink of bankruptcy yet again.

'Big reset' called for debt-ridden N.L. with release of ground-shaking economic report

In order to rein in a soaring public debt and end the long pattern of deficit spending, Greene recommended a five per cent reduction in core government spending, and that operating grants for Memorial University and the College of the North Atlantic be slashed by 30 per cent, at a rate of five per cent annually.

Some of her sharpest points were directed at the health system, which accounts for 37 per cent of public spending. The province also spends 24 per cent more per capita on heath than the Canadian average.

She also recommended the abolishment of Nalcor, the province's energy corporation and the entity that oversees the controversial Muskrat Falls hydroelectric project.

"Our predicament is the result of years of overspending; [government] spending about 25 per cent more than it takes in every year," she said, noting that expenditures soared by 80 per cent over a 15-year period "regardless of changes downward in our revenues."

She said privatization and sell-offs should not be ruled out, noting that "the public sector does not have to do everything. Times have changes and ways of doing things should also change."

Greene said the current governance culture — one that views budgets as "notional" and deficits as something that don't matter — has to end. She said the overall debt sits at more than $47 billion in a province of just over 500,000 residents.

The bolded works out to about 146% of GDP - an independent NL would be the third most indebted country in the world after Japan and Greece.

My guess is feds bail them out soon and that will look really bad, but I don't see what other alternative they have.

[DC Al Fine]

I agree with Miles. I have a very hard time seeing Newfoundland's government and political culture embracing austerity to the degree required to get out of this mess.

The feds already had to quietly bail them out in 2020. During the early days of the pandemic, the provincial government had trouble rolling over its debt and nearly missed payroll before the feds stepped in with some short term liquidity.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yes, the ghosts of Bob Rae still linger in this province. Ridiculous really, since the Liberals and the Tories have also had terrible Premiers since then. But, the NDP is judged more harshly.

Possibly one reason why the NDP did better provincially in 2018 than federally in 2011 is that we're further removed from the days of Rae. The more people forgive and forget, the better the NDP will be able to do in the future. But, it will take time. I'm 34 and even I as a child can remember the vitriol against him.

Even in BC, NDP had same issue its why in 2017 even after 16 years of BC Liberal government and all the baggage still fell short in seats and votes, although by denying BC Liberals a majority were able to form government.  Normally a government in power that long not only loses, but loses badly.  Yes in 2020 they did much better and Horgan by avoiding the mistakes of NDP in the 90s has helped redeem the brand considerably so if NDP does manage to win in Ontario and govern well there is that upside. 

Ironically though in Alberta, NDP doing just fine provincially despite it being a lot more recently and same leader.  Although I don't think Notley was ever as disliked as Glen Clark or Bob Rae and Kenney is also pretty unpopular so not sure Alberta has embraced NDP as more having seen two governments, many are concluding Notley was the least bad of the two and Kenney worse.

Notley is not unpopular; she consistently polls better than the party. She lost because Alberta is a conservative province, and the conservatives united to defeat her.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Another thing to note about the ONDP: I've been working on the phone for a Liberal nomination campaign recently (so take my insights with a grain of salt, most people I speak to are former or current Liberals from our calling list).

I've heard complaints about Horwath from my calls though. A lot of people find her style abrasive and uncalled for, and don't really believe that the NDP would do much better. This isn't really my opinion but a lot of these people voted NDP in 2018 and aren't impressed with Horwath now, which leaves "coming home" to the Liberals as the logical option for many of these politically minded left-leaners.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Devastating poll for the CPC if true, but the methodology is horrendous. Only Ontario is within an acceptable MoE, the rest is way too high and SK/MB are over 20% in MoE!

[DC Al Fine]

Devastating poll for the CPC if true, but the methodology is horrendous. Only Ontario is within an acceptable MoE, the rest is way too high and SK/MB are over 20% in MoE!

Don't trust crosstabs, good or bad

I see the PPC is at 5%. To repeat an argument I've made on Atlas and elsewhere, the Tory predicament is a lot more complicated than merely "tack to the left to capture the centre". The right side of the Tories can, show their dissent by voting with their feet. Even a Green Party-sized vote to the right of the Tories makes it very difficult for them to be competitive, much less form government.

Not a good day for Mr. O'Toole!

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Devastating poll for the CPC if true, but the methodology is horrendous. Only Ontario is within an acceptable MoE, the rest is way too high and SK/MB are over 20% in MoE!

Don't trust crosstabs, good or bad

I see the PPC is at 5%. To repeat an argument I've made on Atlas and elsewhere, the Tory predicament is a lot more complicated than merely "tack to the left to capture the centre". The right side of the Tories can, show their dissent by voting with their feet. Even a Green Party-sized vote to the right of the Tories makes it very difficult for them to be competitive, much less form government.

Not a good day for Mr. O'Toole!

In the long run the Tories would have been better off had the PCs and Reform never merged. The differences between the Anglicized, urbane Atlantic PCs and the Americanized, populist Reformers (not to mention the Quebec separatists) are too great to be bridged by any but the most skilled politicians (and even Harper's coalition was falling apart by the end). It would make far more sense for two separate right of center parties to focus on the regions they're best at while strategically not running candidates in key swing ridings (presumably after negotiations and/or local primaries).

Still, we'll have to see how long this holds. Bernier definitely benefits from O'Toole tacking left on Carbon Taxes just as lockdown fatigue started to set in but if he wants to make a comeback he'd have to actually win a seat. I have no idea whether his odds in Beauce are higher or lower than they were in 2019; on the one hand he isn't an incumbent anymore and probably won't get the same level of press coverage, but on the other the Tories probably won't be treating it as a key tossup riding (if they are O'Toole is in deep trouble) and there are few places in Canada where anti-lockdown sentiment is higher than Beauce.

Regardless, even if Bernier doesn't capitalize, sooner or later someone will. A random separatist party in the last Saskatchewan election that nobody had heard of before won double digits and 2nd place in a half dozen ridings so I wouldn't be surprised if Western separatists start contesting or even winning formerly monolithic Conservative seats.

[Hatman 🍁]

Another thing to note about the ONDP: I've been working on the phone for a Liberal nomination campaign recently (so take my insights with a grain of salt, most people I speak to are former or current Liberals from our calling list).

I've heard complaints about Horwath from my calls though. A lot of people find her style abrasive and uncalled for, and don't really believe that the NDP would do much better. This isn't really my opinion but a lot of these people voted NDP in 2018 and aren't impressed with Horwath now, which leaves "coming home" to the Liberals as the logical option for many of these politically minded left-leaners.

A female politician is seen as being abrasive? Where have I heard that before... You'd think those Liberals would've learned a thing or two after the treatment Wynne got. Anyway, Liberals will make any excuse possible to not vote NDP, so *shrugs shoulders*

[King of Kensington]

Canada is moving leftward.  The Conservative Party stuck at a 25-30% base unable to break into the "moderate vote" constituency (and the hard right is drifting off), but the shift leftward of the Liberal Party under Trudeau (compared to Chretien/Martin) doesn't seem to be sending anyone to the Tories. The old business wing, so prominent in the Turner and Chretien/Martin eras, seem pretty much extinct now.  It seems like a lot of people who would have been PCs or "blue Liberals" a generation ago have embraced a form of corporate "wokeness" (for lack of a better term). which means not only more sensitivity around issues of gender and racial equality, but also a concern about corporate social responsibility and income inequality.

[mileslunn]

Canada is moving leftward.  The Conservative Party stuck at a 25-30% base unable to break into the "moderate vote" constituency (and the hard right is drifting off), but the shift leftward of the Liberal Party under Trudeau (compared to Chretien/Martin) doesn't seem to be sending anyone to the Tories. The old business wing, so prominent in the Turner and Chretien/Martin eras, seem pretty much extinct now.  It seems like a lot of people who would have been PCs or "blue Liberals" a generation ago have embraced a form of corporate "wokeness" (for lack of a better term). which means not only more sensitivity around issues of gender and racial equality, but also a concern about corporate social responsibility and income inequality.

100%.  What is ironic is you aren't seeing this shift elsewhere, if anything Europe is moving in opposite direction.  I think idea of Europe being to left of Canada is very outdated and no longer true.  Yes on some government policies are but more a lag indicator.  As for no Blue Liberals going over it is interesting, but I think pandemic, income inequality, and climate change have more or less made everyone a big government socialist.  Real question is when bills come due if that can hold or do things return to what they were before?

I have a number of times stated I believe Canada is most left wing developed country and there are signs that just might be coming true.  Tories in real rut so question is can they ever return to power.  Obviously you never want to say never but ideological make up right now basically says they cannot win so that will need to change before winning.  By contrast Liberal disaster in 1984 and 2011 never suggested there weren't enough small l liberals out there to win, more problem with party more than ideology.  1993 disaster likewise made things look bleak for Tories but at least if they could somehow unite everyone who leaned right there was a path, but actually uniting them seemed impossible.  Now it seems like there basically is no path.  If you ranked voters from most left to most right, and took person standing on the 40th percentile most right, they would lean left thus why Tories in big trouble.

[Don Vito Corleone]

In the long run the Tories would have been better off had the PCs and Reform never merged. The differences between the Anglicized, urbane Atlantic PCs and the Americanized, populist Reformers (not to mention the Quebec separatists) are too great to be bridged by any but the most skilled politicians (and even Harper's coalition was falling apart by the end). It would make far more sense for two separate right of center parties to focus on the regions they're best at while strategically not running candidates in key swing ridings (presumably after negotiations and/or local primaries).

But how would not merging change anything? You would still need to bridge the divide between the various strains of Conservatism in Canada; the only difference is now they are in separate parties as well. It's not like this was new either; the pre-1993 PCs also suffered from regionalism that harmed their electoral chances. FWIW, your idea of having different Conservative Parties run in various regions was actually proposed but was shot down.

[King of Kensington]

It's not really a matter of "eastern PCs" and "western Reformers" anymore though.  Calgary is more "PC" than "Reform" at this point.  The rural Prairies are Reform-type right-wing populist. 

[King of Kensington]

Looking back two decades, the Lower Mainland of BC and Vancouver Island embracing Preston Manning and Stockwell Day sure looks weird today.  But so was the election of Rob Ford as mayor of Toronto.  

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Looking back two decades, the Lower Mainland of BC and Vancouver Island embracing Preston Manning and Stockwell Day sure looks weird today.  But so was the election of Rob Ford as mayor of Toronto.  

Reform was way more ideologically heterogenous than people give it credit. Keith Martin was hardly some far right extremist.

In the long run the Tories would have been better off had the PCs and Reform never merged. The differences between the Anglicized, urbane Atlantic PCs and the Americanized, populist Reformers (not to mention the Quebec separatists) are too great to be bridged by any but the most skilled politicians (and even Harper's coalition was falling apart by the end). It would make far more sense for two separate right of center parties to focus on the regions they're best at while strategically not running candidates in key swing ridings (presumably after negotiations and/or local primaries).

But how would not merging change anything? You would still need to bridge the divide between the various strains of Conservatism in Canada; the only difference is now they are in separate parties as well. It's not like this was new either; the pre-1993 PCs also suffered from regionalism that harmed their electoral chances. FWIW, your idea of having different Conservative Parties run in various regions was actually proposed but was shot down.

You don't need to bridge the divide. Just let the PC-equivalent run a center right UK Tory style campaign that runs on a carbon tax and beating down SoCons for those key upper middle class urban/suburban votes while the Reform-equivalent runs with all the policies that let it dominate the Prairies and that (especially recently) provided inroads in postindustrial ex-NDP regions like Essex and Oshawa.

As it stands a single Tory leader is forced to choose between their base and growth, whereas two Tory leaders could get both. If anything being divided is a good thing, since that makes it harder for Trudeau to do his usual trick of painting the Tories as Republicans to alienate centrist suburbanites.

Also, of course Trudeau is at his peak when he's paying a huge portion of the population to stay home. The same trick worked quite a while for Bolsonaro. But the real question is what happens to his popularity when the bill comes due, either in the form of austerity and service cuts when the BoC raises rates or inflation if it doesn't. I've seen zero explanations for how we're going to handle the debt (let alone provincial debt) when real rates aren't negative.

I'm sure Trudeau will capitalize by holding an election sooner rather than later though, ideally by baiting the other parties into forcing it somehow.

[2952-0-0]

You don't need to bridge the divide. Just let the PC-equivalent run a center right UK Tory style campaign that runs on a carbon tax and beating down SoCons for those key upper middle class urban/suburban votes while the Reform-equivalent runs with all the policies that let it dominate the Prairies and that (especially recently) provided inroads in postindustrial ex-NDP regions like Essex and Oshawa.

As it stands a single Tory leader is forced to choose between their base and growth, whereas two Tory leaders could get both. If anything being divided is a good thing, since that makes it harder for Trudeau to do his usual trick of painting the Tories as Republicans to alienate centrist suburbanites.

Also, of course Trudeau is at his peak when he's paying a huge portion of the population to stay home. The same trick worked quite a while for Bolsonaro. But the real question is what happens to his popularity when the bill comes due, either in the form of austerity and service cuts when the BoC raises rates or inflation if it doesn't. I've seen zero explanations for how we're going to handle the debt (let alone provincial debt) when real rates aren't negative.

I'm sure Trudeau will capitalize by holding an election sooner rather than later though, ideally by baiting the other parties into forcing it somehow.

The PCs and Reform/Alliance merged *because* the alternative was another decade of Liberal majorities with ~35% of the popular vote. More specifically, the PCs never recovered from the shocks of Mulroney's last years, and were a spent force. It's possible that, given another decade, the Alliance Party could have itself evolved into a big-tent centre-right party, but we'll never know.

There would certainly be room for a moderate, centre-right party. Unfortunately, the First Past The Post system makes it unviable.

Virtually every democratically elected government gave generous cash handouts over the past year. But, if buying voters with their own money was the magic elixir to keep power, then Trump would have won. People want real leadership, or at least the perception of it (admittedly, Trudeau did much better on the latter than the former). The debt will have to be addressed through big tax hikes, which most peer countries are going to introduce in some form in the coming years.

I agree, that Trudeau will find a way to call an election by this Fall, when life has returned to normal and we've enjoyed a Summer of economic exuberance. He'll get away with it, because Erin O'Toole has been suspiciously eager about one for months.

[King of Kensington]

What's a "poison pill" that would get the Tories and the Bloc and the NDP to vote to bring down Trudeau?

[Benjamin Frank]

You don't need to bridge the divide. Just let the PC-equivalent run a center right UK Tory style campaign that runs on a carbon tax and beating down SoCons for those key upper middle class urban/suburban votes while the Reform-equivalent runs with all the policies that let it dominate the Prairies and that (especially recently) provided inroads in postindustrial ex-NDP regions like Essex and Oshawa.

As it stands a single Tory leader is forced to choose between their base and growth, whereas two Tory leaders could get both. If anything being divided is a good thing, since that makes it harder for Trudeau to do his usual trick of painting the Tories as Republicans to alienate centrist suburbanites.

Also, of course Trudeau is at his peak when he's paying a huge portion of the population to stay home. The same trick worked quite a while for Bolsonaro. But the real question is what happens to his popularity when the bill comes due, either in the form of austerity and service cuts when the BoC raises rates or inflation if it doesn't. I've seen zero explanations for how we're going to handle the debt (let alone provincial debt) when real rates aren't negative.

I'm sure Trudeau will capitalize by holding an election sooner rather than later though, ideally by baiting the other parties into forcing it somehow.

The PCs and Reform/Alliance merged *because* the alternative was another decade of Liberal majorities with ~35% of the popular vote. More specifically, the PCs never recovered from the shocks of Mulroney's last years, and were a spent force. It's possible that, given another decade, the Alliance Party could have itself evolved into a big-tent centre-right party, but we'll never know.

There would certainly be room for a moderate, centre-right party. Unfortunately, the First Past The Post system makes it unviable.

Virtually every democratically elected government gave generous cash handouts over the past year. But, if buying voters with their own money was the magic elixir to keep power, then Trump would have won. People want real leadership, or at least the perception of it (admittedly, Trudeau did much better on the latter than the former). The debt will have to be addressed through big tax hikes, which most peer countries are going to introduce in some form in the coming years.

I agree, that Trudeau will find a way to call an election by this Fall, when life has returned to normal and we've enjoyed a Summer of economic exuberance. He'll get away with it, because Erin O'Toole has been suspiciously eager about one for months.

The Progressive Conservatives might have been coming back. They had just won a by-election in Ontario and they had a credible and relatively popular leader in former Prime Minister Joe Clark. 

There was also reason to expect the Liberal government would be hurt by scandals with rumors of the 'Sponsorship scandal' starting to bubble up.  Historically the Progressive Conservatives had benefited from Liberal government scandals.  However, Joe Clark seemed to have the worst political judgement of any major politician in Canada, and just when this situation for a major return of the P.Cs seemed possible, he stepped down as P.C leader.