Beto O’Rourke 2020 campaign megathread

[here2view]

I think I have finally found my candidate! It may be contrary to popular opinion, but I think he has more to gain by running for President, even if he loses, than by losing two Senate runs in a row.

I agree. Strike while the iron is hot. Winning Texas in a 2020 Senate race will be more difficult than his 2018 run.

[GoTfan]

If this actually happens the board will be flooded with negative threads about O'Rourke.

It’ll just be vetting.

So all of a sudden, we're not allowed to criticise someone who had a 47% rating from the Chamber of Commerce? That's higher than a Democrat should be.

I don't care what you post about his record. If it's there, it's there. But don't cry foul when someone dare criticize God King Bernard Sanders.

Interestingly, the only defence I've heard when someone criticises Harris or O'Rourke is "shut up and get back in line, you idiot."

[Zaybay]

To be honest, I think Beto has one of the weaker paths to the nomination than most of the rather serious candidates, both possible and declared. He can win TX by a good margin, but outside of that state, Im rather stumped for where he can make large delegate gains.

[Heebie Jeebie]

If Beto is joining the race, I think I've got to update my chart...

[OneJ]

I still think he’s just better off running for the Senate in 2020. Fortunately, Democrats have other viable candidates in Texas to run against Cronyn. Beto’s simply not what I’m looking for at the moment.

[RI]

His campaign would need to win one or both of IA/NV to be viable. Even then...

[Devout Centrist]

I'm happy to see him jump in

[Mr. Smith]

To be honest, I think Beto has one of the weaker paths to the nomination than most of the rather serious candidates, both possible and declared. He can win TX by a good margin, but outside of that state, Im rather stumped for where he can make large delegate gains.

He has a reasonable shot in California [yeah, Harris should get first easily, but a respectable 2nd or 3rd shouldn't be underestimated], and then there's New Mexico, Colorado, Arizona, and Florida to consider too.

And of course Iowa is a bit of a wildcard, and also the place where...save some rando Iowa Senator or Governor, usually ends up picking the nominee.

[GoTfan]

To be honest, I think Beto has one of the weaker paths to the nomination than most of the rather serious candidates, both possible and declared. He can win TX by a good margin, but outside of that state, Im rather stumped for where he can make large delegate gains.

He has a reasonable shot in California [yeah, Harris should get first easily, but a respectable 2nd or 3rd shouldn't be underestimated], and then there's New Mexico, Colorado, Arizona, and Florida to consider too.

And of course Iowa is a bit of a wildcard, and also the place where...save some rando Iowa Senator or Governor, usually ends up picking the nominee.

I think he needs to try and rack up wins in the south, but that'll be difficult, considering harris and Booker are in the race. He needs to win Iowa to have a chance, and I don't see that as likely right now.

[Gass3268]

He needs to stand-down and stop taking votes from Bernie. The nerve of him being the John Edwards to Wall Street Kamala's 2008 Obama.

wut?

[GoTfan]

He needs to stand-down and stop taking votes from Bernie. The nerve of him being the John Edwards to Wall Street Kamala's 2008 Obama.

wut?

Unless Beto has a sex scandal (which I doubt) then this criticism makes little sense.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

He needs to stand-down and stop taking votes from Bernie. The nerve of him being the John Edwards to Wall Street Kamala's 2008 Obama.

wut?

He has the corner on a lot of Bernie's support, which will destroy both in favour of Wall Street Kamala.

[Zaybay]

To be honest, I think Beto has one of the weaker paths to the nomination than most of the rather serious candidates, both possible and declared. He can win TX by a good margin, but outside of that state, Im rather stumped for where he can make large delegate gains.

He has a reasonable shot in California [yeah, Harris should get first easily, but a respectable 2nd or 3rd shouldn't be underestimated], and then there's New Mexico, Colorado, Arizona, and Florida to consider too.

And of course Iowa is a bit of a wildcard, and also the place where...save some rando Iowa Senator or Governor, usually ends up picking the nominee.

Thats the problem though, thats not at all enough delegates to make it to the convention, and the way the primary is formatted, momentum is key. For instance, if hes not able to win an early primary state, most likely IA or NV, then his momentum dies, and even if he does, it wont guarantee him victory against rather big juggernauts like Harris and Sanders.

Also, Im pretty sure you just listed a bunch of states with heavy Hispanic populations. While I agree that may be one of his strong points, the vote is likely to be heavily contested, considering Sanders is currently winning it and Biden/Harris will be vying for it.

If I were to name Beto's biggest problem, its that his base is too spread out. While he clearly will wipe the floor in TX, outside of that state, he doesnt have a strong enough floor in a bunch of these states, unlike Harris(Deep South), or Sanders(New England, Great Plains). If he wants to win, hes gonna need to find some area or demographic he can win in, and win big, otherwise, hes not getting to the convention.

[GoTfan]

He needs to stand-down and stop taking votes from Bernie. The nerve of him being the John Edwards to Wall Street Kamala's 2008 Obama.

wut?

He has the corner on a lot of Bernie's support, which will destroy both in favour of Wall Street Kamala.

I think a lot of Democratic candidates will be forced to tack leftwards.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

John James did better

No he didn't

[Mr. Smith]

To be honest, I think Beto has one of the weaker paths to the nomination than most of the rather serious candidates, both possible and declared. He can win TX by a good margin, but outside of that state, Im rather stumped for where he can make large delegate gains.

He has a reasonable shot in California [yeah, Harris should get first easily, but a respectable 2nd or 3rd shouldn't be underestimated], and then there's New Mexico, Colorado, Arizona, and Florida to consider too.

And of course Iowa is a bit of a wildcard, and also the place where...save some rando Iowa Senator or Governor, usually ends up picking the nominee.

Thats the problem though, thats not at all enough delegates to make it to the convention, and the way the primary is formatted, momentum is key. For instance, if hes not able to win an early primary state, most likely IA or NV, then his momentum dies, and even if he does, it wont guarantee him victory against rather big juggernauts like Harris and Sanders.

Also, Im pretty sure you just listed a bunch of states with heavy Hispanic populations. While I agree that may be one of his strong points, the vote is likely to be heavily contested, considering Sanders is currently winning it and Biden/Harris will be vying for it.

If I were to name Beto's biggest problem, its that his base is too spread out. While he clearly will wipe the floor in TX, outside of that state, he doesnt have a strong enough floor in a bunch of these states, unlike Harris(Deep South), or Sanders(New England, Great Plains). If he wants to win, hes gonna need to find some area or demographic he can win in, and win big, otherwise, hes not getting to the convention.

Except I don't necessarily think Bernie is locked in with The Great Plains, to which the Texas Panhandle isn't dissimilar from.

So take that out, assume Warren and Sanders duke it out in New England, The South gets split a bunch of ways like it's '88 all over again [and given the disproportionate focus there in the primaries, the establishment and yes, Bernie too, will go crazy there, a split is highly likely], then The West and Great Plains become more important.

And those heavily Hispanic states are also very suburban too, both of which seem to be Beto's forte. And it's not entirely unfathomable that he uses that to turn those states [or in the case of California, just SoCal] into a good base.

His roadblock is Iowa. Getting there, that is that is crucial. And that is the problem.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Beto is easily my second choice after Bennet. If Bennet's run doesn't work out, I won't hesitate for a second to throw my support behind him.

I’m basically the opposite. Bennet really impressed me with his diatribe against Cruz a few weeks back though. He hadn’t really been on my radar before.

Remember that this forum really underestimated Beto in 2018 and I wouldn’t be surprised if y’all’re doing it again this year.

Yes, because a former three term Congressman who lost a Senate race to one of the most unpopular politicians in the country screams President.

Yes, because one of the least effective senators from one of the whitest, smallest states who lost a primary to one of the most unpopular politicians in the country does scream president?

Beto had brogressive credentials until he was a threat to St. Bernard. I’ll never forget Shadows proclamation that Beto was the most progressive politician in the country. Now he’s a right wing neoliberal cuck.

My King is awakening from his hibernation at last.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Run against the Republican senator who just quoted Mussolini or run for president and drop out after Iowa or New Hampshire...

Really tough choice there, Beto.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

To be honest, I think Beto has one of the weaker paths to the nomination than most of the rather serious candidates, both possible and declared. He can win TX by a good margin, but outside of that state, Im rather stumped for where he can make large delegate gains.

There is more to winning the primary process than the place you're from. I'm not exactly sure what you mean by "most of the rather serious candidates" but in terms of charisma, hard work, and campaign skills, Beto on paper edges out quite a few names. Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Julian Castro, Sherrod Brown, Amy Klobuchar, Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, and Kamala Harris all don't have electoral performances as impressive as getting within 2.4% of winning Texas as an unabashedly liberal Democrat and getting more votes in a midterm year than Hillary got in a Presidential year. Bernie Sanders comes close due to going from a relatively unknown Senator of an obscure state to giving Hillary some real trouble.

Castro hasn't won any tough elections that I'm aware of. Winning the Democratic Primary for Mayor of San Antonio doesn't seem like that difficult an achievement. Gillibrand, Warren, Booker, and Kamala have all won in solidly blue states. Warren only beat Scott Brown in Massachusetts by a single digit margin, and Kamala Harris almost lost her Attorney General election in 2010, only getting a victory margin of 0.8%. Gillibrand was elevated to the Senate seat via gubernatorial appointment, and Booker was unchallenged in the Democratic primary for the New Jersey Senate seat in 2014. Biden hasn’t won a tough race since he became Senator of Delaware at 30 years old in 1972, failed hard in 1988 when he ran, and did the bare minimum expected of a VP pick in 2008. Klobuchar’s elections were all in a Democratic leaning state in Democratic leaning years against non-incumbent sacrificial lambs. The same applies to Sherrod Brown, except that Ohio is more right-leaning than Minnesota. Of course, all these things do not necessarily indicate that they are bad campaigners, but at the same time it seems clear they haven’t proven themselves in terms of campaigning in the same way Beto did.

(I almost forgot about John Delaney, Marianne Williamson, and quite a few other people that are bound to also join in. That should tell you something about their chances.)

I almost firmly believe that the top four are ones we can already identify at this point. Kamala Harris will be in the top four due to being a black/biracial woman with solid public speaking skills and a progressive enough platform for the vast majority of Democrats. Bernie Sanders will be in the top four due to the large loyal following he cultivated in 2016 and the fact that he is arguably the *most* left-wing candidate in a time where ideological purity matters more than it used to. Joe Biden will be in the top four due to name recognition, his closeness to Obama, and having the moderates coalesce around him. Beto will be in the top four due to having a progressive enough platform on top of being a telegenic young man with strong campaign skills. There is room for error, but I really wouldn’t be surprised if they’re the top four.

I will also say that I doubt Gillibrand, Booker, Klobuchar, and Brown can make it into the top four, but that I do see paths for Castro and Warren making it into the top four. Castro is the sole major Hispanic candidate in a time where Hispanics are more than ever an integral Democratic voting block. Warren is Bernie-lite and female.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I dont know why Beto is jumping in, Bernie and Kamala has all the support needed to run their campaigns.

A Rep doesnt get cash aid. Thats why Tim Ryan isnt running

[Zaybay]

To be honest, I think Beto has one of the weaker paths to the nomination than most of the rather serious candidates, both possible and declared. He can win TX by a good margin, but outside of that state, Im rather stumped for where he can make large delegate gains.

He has a reasonable shot in California [yeah, Harris should get first easily, but a respectable 2nd or 3rd shouldn't be underestimated], and then there's New Mexico, Colorado, Arizona, and Florida to consider too.

And of course Iowa is a bit of a wildcard, and also the place where...save some rando Iowa Senator or Governor, usually ends up picking the nominee.

Thats the problem though, thats not at all enough delegates to make it to the convention, and the way the primary is formatted, momentum is key. For instance, if hes not able to win an early primary state, most likely IA or NV, then his momentum dies, and even if he does, it wont guarantee him victory against rather big juggernauts like Harris and Sanders.

Also, Im pretty sure you just listed a bunch of states with heavy Hispanic populations. While I agree that may be one of his strong points, the vote is likely to be heavily contested, considering Sanders is currently winning it and Biden/Harris will be vying for it.

If I were to name Beto's biggest problem, its that his base is too spread out. While he clearly will wipe the floor in TX, outside of that state, he doesnt have a strong enough floor in a bunch of these states, unlike Harris(Deep South), or Sanders(New England, Great Plains). If he wants to win, hes gonna need to find some area or demographic he can win in, and win big, otherwise, hes not getting to the convention.

Except I don't necessarily think Bernie is locked in with The Great Plains, to which the Texas Panhandle isn't dissimilar from.

So take that out, assume Warren and Sanders duke it out in New England, The South gets split a bunch of ways like it's '88 all over again [and given the disproportionate focus there in the primaries, the establishment and yes, Bernie too, will go crazy there, a split is highly likely], then The West and Great Plains become more important.

And those heavily Hispanic states are also very suburban too, both of which seem to be Beto's forte. And it's not entirely unfathomable that he uses that to turn those states [or in the case of California, just SoCal] into a good base.

His roadblock is Iowa. Getting there, that is that is crucial. And that is the problem.

Yeah, the Sanders/Warren split is fair.

Anyway, the problem is that, even if hes winning the Hispanic vote outright(unlikely), and even if hes winning these states by 70%. Even if he gets 40% in CA. Hes still doesnt have enough delegates, and by this time, there is nowhere for him to really expand. He really doesnt have any states that he can gain the delegates needed in to get to the contested convention against people like Harris, Sanders, Biden, etc. who have well established bases of geographic and demographic support.

If I am to be honest, Im pretty sure Beto wants the VP position.

[History505]

I dont know why Beto is jumping in, Bernie and Kamala has all the support needed to run their campaigns.

A Rep doesnt get cash aid. Thats why Tim Ryan isnt running

He has nothing to lose really. Anyone who is interested, like the governors or reps, should still get in.

[Sir Mohamed]

I dont know why Beto is jumping in, Bernie and Kamala has all the support needed to run their campaigns.

A Rep doesnt get cash aid. Thats why Tim Ryan isnt running

He has nothing to lose really. Anyone who is interested, like the governors or reps, should still get in.

Plus he has shown the ability to raise tons of money from small donors. Beto should just get in if he wants to. If he doesn't succeed, he still has a good chance to end up with the VP slot.

[HAnnA MArin County]

He’s polling better against Individual-1 than Queen Kamala and the usual suspects on here are already writing him off. Why am I not surprised?

[Rookie Yinzer]

He’s polling better against Individual-1 than Queen Kamala and the usual suspects on here are already writing him off. Why am I not surprised?