Who's going to qualify for the Democratic debates?

[ElectionsGuy]

Good choice to not have Chuck Todd there.

[libertpaulian]

They need to split this stupid thing into two nights.

[2016]

Moderators have been announced:

https://twitter.com/MSNBCPR/status/1187116693530857472?s=20

I can live with Maddow, Mitchell and Welker. Ashley Parker is just big crap IMO.

[Orser67]

Darn, already back to 9 candidates. Hopefully O'Rourke, Castro, and Gabbard don't qualify.

[Cinemark]

I know posters on here arent happy with how many candidates have qualified, but its not really that unprecedented. The 2007 November dem debate had 7 candidates. The 2015 November republican debate had 8 candidates and a lower threshold(that's not even counting the "secondary" debate for candidates who didn't qualify). The two republican debates in November of 2011 also each had 8 candidates. If this upcomming debate holds at 9 candidates(which i think it might), it'd be a tad more crowded than previous years.

I think what i'm getting at is that the bar the DNC has set to qualify for these debates hasnt been unusually low compared to other open primaries in the past. Also, Since this is basicly the first open democratic primary in over a decade, there was bound to be alot of interest.

[Tender Branson]

Darn, already back to 9 candidates. Hopefully O'Rourke, Castro, and Gabbard don't qualify.

Why do you hate democracy ?

There is a set of rules and if certain candidates meet them, they should be in.

No matter what YOU think ...

[Orser67]

I'd really like an eight person debate at this point: Biden, Warren, Sanders, Buttigieg, Harris, Booker, Klobuchar, and Yang. Ideally, Booker, Klobuchar, and Yang would be cut from the December debate unless they really move up in polls.

Darn, already back to 9 candidates. Hopefully O'Rourke, Castro, and Gabbard don't qualify.

Why do you hate democracy ?

There is a set of rules and if certain candidates meet them, they should be in.

No matter what YOU think ...

Nowhere in my post did I say that Democrats should retroactively change the rules. I simply wish they had set a slightly higher threshold for this debate. Each of the three candidates I mentioned have already been given plenty of time to speak at the debates, and none have garnered significant support.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Klobuchar is IN.

The writers of her one-liners must be ecstatic, at least before she throws a binder at them when the lines they write for her don't end up being corny enough.

[Gass3268]

Here are the requirements for the Decemeber debates (to be held at UCLA).

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/1187730270906146816?s=20

[Mr. Morden]

The December debate will be Dec. 19th at UCLA, and will be run by PBS NewsHour and Politico:

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/25/politico-pbs-december-democratic-debate-057271

To participate in the debate, candidates must either receive 4 percent or more support in at least four qualifying national polls or single-state polls in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and/or Nevada; or receive 6 percent or more support in two qualifying single-state polls in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and/or Nevada.

Candidates must also amass donations from at least 200,000 unique donors, as well as a minimum of 800 unique donors per state in at least 20 U.S. states, territories or the District of Columbia.

From this:

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1187733542643654657

it looks like the qualification period is Oct. 16 - Dec. 12.

Conceivably, this could reduce the number of participants all the way down to 5 candidates (Biden/Sanders/Warren/Buttigieg/Harris).

[rhg2052]

Here are the requirements for the Decemeber debates (to be held at UCLA).

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/1187730270906146816?s=20

This should hopefully cut things down a bit to 5-7. Barring a larger shift in the polls, I think we lose Castro and Gabbard for November and O'Rourke, Klobuchar, and Booker for December, leaving us with the top five making it in easily, Yang getting just enough to make it, and Steyer doing well enough in the early states for December.

By my count, Biden, Sanders, & Warren are already in, Harris & Buttigieg each need one more, and Steyer is on the board with the Monmouth SC poll. Everyone else is at 0.

[Cinemark]

I think Klobuchar can make it in December if she has a good debate. While not a qualifying poll(?), she did just get 4% in the most recent Iowa poll.

Everybody else not in the top 6 is probably out.

[ElectionsGuy]

For December, Yand and Booker will have trouble making it, beyond the already obvious O'Rourke, Gabbard, Castro, and Klobuchar who will almost certainly not, while Steyer might make it due to early state polls. Steyer would've already had 4 polls in this November debate period had the qualification mark been 4%.

[The Other Castro]

December chart, being liberal with the "Hopeful" category right now since it's early:

[RI]

Oh boy, it's coming to here to UCLA...

[Mr. Morden]

For December, Yand and Booker will have trouble making it, beyond the already obvious O'Rourke, Gabbard, Castro, and Klobuchar who will almost certainly not, while Steyer might make it due to early state polls. Steyer would've already had 4 polls in this November debate period had the qualification mark been 4%.

Outside of the obvious top 5, I guess I agree that Steyer's the most likely to qualify.  And then after him, probably Yang, to be honest.

[Orser67]

Is Steyer really that likely to make it? Six percent seems like a pretty high bar to clear for early state polls. I'm actually wondering if Yang and O'Rourke have a better chance than Steyer given their relatively strong performance in national polls.

[ElectionsGuy]

Is Steyer really that likely to make it? Six percent seems like a pretty high bar to clear for early state polls. I'm actually wondering if Yang and O'Rourke have a better chance than Steyer given their relatively strong performance in national polls.

If it was 6%, he wouldn't make it, but the DNC has the same 4 x 4% standard for early-state polls as national polls (or a 2 x 6% possibility, which is what you're referring to), which is why he's qualifying for these things so easily.

[rhg2052]

Is Steyer really that likely to make it? Six percent seems like a pretty high bar to clear for early state polls. I'm actually wondering if Yang and O'Rourke have a better chance than Steyer given their relatively strong performance in national polls.

Because the 4% in 4 polls criteria also applies to early states, and he's been hitting that fairly consistently.

[Mr. Morden]

Steyer's the next most likely to qualify for December after the top 5, but I don't think he's a lock.  A big open question for him is whether he can continue to get ~3-5% in early states as we get closer and closer to February.  As voting day approaches, other candidates are going to be stepping up their own ad buys, and Steyer won't stand out on the early state airwaves so much.  Since I doubt he really has much grassroots support, and the support he has is being juiced by these ad buys, is it really sustainable once other candidates are on the air too?

[Orser67]

Is Steyer really that likely to make it? Six percent seems like a pretty high bar to clear for early state polls. I'm actually wondering if Yang and O'Rourke have a better chance than Steyer given their relatively strong performance in national polls.

If it was 6%, he wouldn't make it, but the DNC has the same 4 x 4% standard for early-state polls as national polls (or a 2 x 6% possibility, which is what you're referring to), which is why he's qualifying for these things so easily.

Ok got it, thanks for clearing that up for me. That was some bad reading comprehension on my part.

[Cinemark]

Klobuchar has cleared the December 200k donor threshold according to her campaign's communications director.

https://mobile.twitter.com/timjhogan/status/1187802762924482562

[The Other Castro]

Updated December chart, big changes:




For November:
Gabbard: 2/4 total polls, or 1/2 state polls
O'Rourke: 2/4 total polls
Castro: 0/4 total polls

[eric82oslo]

Steyer's the next most likely to qualify for December after the top 5, but I don't think he's a lock.  A big open question for him is whether he can continue to get ~3-5% in early states as we get closer and closer to February.  As voting day approaches, other candidates are going to be stepping up their own ad buys, and Steyer won't stand out on the early state airwaves so much.  Since I doubt he really has much grassroots support, and the support he has is being juiced by these ad buys, is it really sustainable once other candidates are on the air too?

Yang launched his very first campaign ad a couple of days ago.

It's produced by the same firm which produced Bernie's "America" (Garfunkel) ad in 2016. I think it will only air in Iowa for now. He also released it on his Twitter page. It's a presentation of his wife and kids, and the message centers around Medicare For All, special needs kids and autism. Could give him a much needed boost among older voters and women in Iowa.

https://twitter.com/AndrewYang/status/1188947809493508096

[Mr. Morden]

For November:
Gabbard: 2/4 total polls, or 1/2 state polls
O'Rourke: 2/4 total polls
Castro: 0/4 total polls

Gabbard now 3/4 for November, with the new USA Today / Suffolk poll.

For December, of those who haven’t qualified yet here are the number of polls at 4% (4 needed to qualify):

3/4 polls: Harris
2/4 polls: Gabbard
1/4 polls: Klobuchar, Steyer, Yang