Who's going to qualify for the Democratic debates?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

No change with the Fox poll. While Steyer and Castro still have some chance for September, it's very unlikely that anyone else qualifies.

[NyIndy]

Isn’t it very likely that there will be a CBS poll before the 28th that gives opportunity for up to 4 qualifying polls? Could give Gillibrand and Gabbard (maybe even Inslee) reason to stick it out and try for October?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Isn’t it very likely that there will be a CBS poll before the 28th that gives opportunity for up to 4 qualifying polls? Could give Gillibrand and Gabbard (maybe even Inslee) reason to stick it out and try for October?

CBS sometimes polls IA, NH, SC, but not NV at once. Gabbard already got 2% in NH, so she would still need something else.

[NyIndy]

Isn’t it very likely that there will be a CBS poll before the 28th that gives opportunity for up to 4 qualifying polls? Could give Gillibrand and Gabbard (maybe even Inslee) reason to stick it out and try for October?

CBS sometimes polls IA, NH, SC, but not NV at once. Gabbard already got 2% in NH, so she would still need something else.

Don't they do those states in tandem with a national poll?

[henster]

It seems there are three big qualifying pollsters that haven't polled since June/July that could make a difference. NBC/WSJ last polled early July same for ABC/WaPO and CNN had its last poll in June. So if all three release before 8/28 it's possible Gabbard gets lucky but still unlikely. I'm more down on Steyer/Castro they have been getting 0-1% in a lot of the non-counted polls.

[eric82oslo]

Yang talks about whether the September debate will be televised over one or two nights, and what the criteria for the beyond October debate is gonna look like.

https://twitter.com/BjornErikOpheim/status/1162276815714439168

[JRP1994]

Good lord, where are the qualifying polls? We need Steyer and Castro to qualify to get the debate split to 2 nights

[rhg2052]

Marianne Williamson is about 3,000 donors away from hitting the donor quota, per her Twitter. She’s still not going to qualify on account of polls, but it’s worth noting.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Good lord, where are the qualifying polls? We need Steyer and Castro to qualify to get the debate split to 2 nights

Fox national didn't help anyone, but we've only had around 2-3 qualifying polls this month.

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

I'm getting poll withdrawal over here. Where are they all?

[Blue3]

Does someone have an updated chart of where all the candidates are in regard to qualifying polls/donors and who's confirmed for the debates?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its really a Warren v Biden v Buttigieg race right now, especially, in crucial state IA.

[SN2903]

Does someone have an updated chart of where all the candidates are in regard to qualifying polls/donors and who's confirmed for the debates?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_debates_and_forums

[Mr. Morden]

Today's NBC/WSJ poll had a "redacted for future release" section, so highly likely that they'll be releasing Dem. primary numbers in the next couple of days.  Castro already got 2% in an NBC poll last month though, so getting 2% again in this one wouldn't help him.  It would count for Gabbard and Steyer though, since they didn't get 2% in this poll last month.

[The Other Castro]

Does someone have an updated chart of where all the candidates are in regard to qualifying polls/donors and who's confirmed for the debates?

[Tender Branson]

Today's NBC/WSJ poll had a "redacted for future release" section, so highly likely that they'll be releasing Dem. primary numbers in the next couple of days.  Castro already got 2% in an NBC poll last month though, so getting 2% again in this one wouldn't help him.  It would count for Gabbard and Steyer though, since they didn't get 2% in this poll last month.

Based on their poor performance in the Iowa Straw Poll, Gillibrand, Williamson and Inslee are as good as "dead" when it comes to getting 2% in more polls.

Castro, Gabbard, Steyer all had good showings at the Fair, so they could still get some 2% poll over the next 2 weeks.

[Blue3]

I recall reading that the October Democratic Debate will have the same qualifications as the one in September.

So if Gabbard, Williamson, and Gillibrand are at 129,000 unique donors and 3 qualifying polls at 2% on the last day to qualify for the September debate, but the next week they do reach 130,000 unique donors and 4 qualifying polls, they will then participate in the October debate... correct?

If my understanding is correct, which candidates will not be in the September debate(s), but qualify for the October debate(s)?

[Blue3]

Does someone have an updated chart of where all the candidates are in regard to qualifying polls/donors and who's confirmed for the debates?

Thanks!

[henster]

So with NBC/WSJ dropping soon we probably get ABC/WAPO and CNN up next.

[wbrocks67]

Its really a Warren v Biden v Buttigieg race right now, especially, in crucial state IA.

No? Other than the Straw Poll, which is unscientific, there's no reason to believe Pete is that competitive in Iowa. He's been polling 3-5% nationally lately as well.

[The Other Castro]

Yes you’re right on the concept, though realistically they’re not going to be as close as that on 8/28. Castro and Steyer are still both stuck at 3 polls, and there’s at least some chance they don’t make it to 4 polls in time for September, but both would be very likely to get that final poll in the extra month of time for October. Beyond them, I really only see Gabbard maybe making October (among Gabbard, Gillibrand, Williamson, and Inslee). Gillibrand got one poll, but it may just be a fluke, and Williamson and Inslee both still have 0.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Also not to hijack This Thread but if you qualify for the September debate does that mean that you're also qualified for the October one as well

[History505]

Also not to hijack This Thread but if you qualify for the September debate does that mean that you're also qualified for the October one as well

Yes.

[henster]

Downgrading Julian's chances because any good news from NBC/WSJ is useless for him. His first debate performance got him the bump needed for the 3 polls. But his 2nd debate was really lackluster and he's essentially back where he started at 0-1% consistently.

https://twitter.com/TrackerDebate/status/1163071153415622656

[Mr. Morden]

So with NBC/WSJ dropping soon we probably get ABC/WAPO and CNN up next.

A big question is whether we're going to get more early state polls before the deadline.  Another round of CBS/YouGov state polls next week would be interesting, though Castro and Steyer already got 2% in their last Iowa poll, and Gabbard got 2% in their last NH poll, so can't reuse it for those particular states.