Who's going to qualify for the Democratic debates?

[The Other Castro]

January debate chart:

[Orser67]

Bloomberg is probably my least favorite candidate with a semi-plausible path to the nomination, and I like these smaller debates, but I kinda think they should have dropped the donor requirements by now. The requirements were good for distinguishing candidates who received ~1% of the vote, but imo anyone who receives 5% support nationally has a significant following and should be treated as a serious candidate.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Where's the donor info for Bloomberg? Is he just running on name recognition?

[Tender Branson]

Where's the donor info for Bloomberg? Is he just running on name recognition?

Bloomberg is not accepting donations.

Therefore he won't be at any debate, unless the DNC drops the donor requirement.

[Cinemark]

Where's the donor info for Bloomberg? Is he just running on name recognition?

Bloomberg is not accepting donations.

Therefore he won't be at any debate, unless the DNC drops the donor requirement.

Technically, selling merch = donations. So Bloomberg could conceivably hit the donor requirement by selling 225,000 bumper stickers.

[Tender Branson]

Where's the donor info for Bloomberg? Is he just running on name recognition?

Bloomberg is not accepting donations.

Therefore he won't be at any debate, unless the DNC drops the donor requirement.

Technically, selling merch = donations. So Bloomberg could conceivably hit the donor requirement by selling 225,000 bumper stickers.

Are bumper stickers not given out for free by the campaigns ?

At least in Austria, you will get pencils etc. for free from the parties (but our parties are publicly financed, so ...)

[Blue3]

How is Klobuchar one of the final 5.

I just don't get it.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

How is Klobuchar one of the final 5.

I just don't get it.

It makes sense when you remember that we've been down to the final four since at least the October debate and no one outside of Buttigieg, Biden, Bernie, and Warren has had a serious shot of coming in first or second in any state since then.  I mean, it's not like Klobuchar's chances of being the nominee are any better than Bloomberg or Yang's which is to say she has no chance.  After the top four, the rest are all kinda irrelevant at this point.

[Cinemark]

Where's the donor info for Bloomberg? Is he just running on name recognition?

Bloomberg is not accepting donations.

Therefore he won't be at any debate, unless the DNC drops the donor requirement.

Technically, selling merch = donations. So Bloomberg could conceivably hit the donor requirement by selling 225,000 bumper stickers.

Are bumper stickers not given out for free by the campaigns ?

At least in Austria, you will get pencils etc. for free from the parties (but our parties are publicly financed, so ...)

I'd wager you could probably still get a free one at a campaign event.

But most campaigns now sell them separately or will include them with a donation.
Bloomberg for example:
https://shop.mikebloomberg.com/mike-bloomberg-2020-11-5-x-3-vinyl-sticker/

[Tender Branson]

Where's the donor info for Bloomberg? Is he just running on name recognition?

Bloomberg is not accepting donations.

Therefore he won't be at any debate, unless the DNC drops the donor requirement.

Technically, selling merch = donations. So Bloomberg could conceivably hit the donor requirement by selling 225,000 bumper stickers.

Are bumper stickers not given out for free by the campaigns ?

At least in Austria, you will get pencils etc. for free from the parties (but our parties are publicly financed, so ...)

I'd wager you could probably still get a free one at a campaign event.

But most campaigns now sell them separately or will include them with a donation.
Bloomberg for example:
https://shop.mikebloomberg.com/mike-bloomberg-2020-11-5-x-3-vinyl-sticker/

I always wonder who these incredibly stupid people are who donate their own money to billionaires such as Bloomberg or Trump ...

You could also burn your money instead.

[Blue3]

How is Klobuchar one of the final 5.

I just don't get it.

It makes sense when you remember that we've been down to the final four since at least the October debate and no one outside of Buttigieg, Biden, Bernie, and Warren has had a serious shot of coming in first or second in any state since then.  I mean, it's not like Klobuchar's chances of being the nominee are any better than Bloomberg or Yang's which is to say she has no chance.  After the top four, the rest are all kinda irrelevant at this point.

Yes, but how is she still the 5th one to come to the debate, and not any of the others? Why her? How did she outlast  Harris, Gillibrand, Booker, Castro, etc.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Bloomberg self-funding is a good idea, but he can't sit out the debates indefinitely. He should open donations for small sums ($1-$20, maybe?) with it clearly mentioned in the text that the campaign may distribute donation money to affiliated/endorsed campaigns. He doesn't need the money, but if the DNC insists he raise it he should oblige.

[Blue3]

Bloomberg self-funding is a good idea, but he can't sit out the debates indefinitely. He should open donations for small sums ($1-$20, maybe?) with it clearly mentioned in the text that the campaign may distribute donation money to affiliated/endorsed campaigns. He doesn't need the money, but if the DNC insists he raise it he should oblige.

Debate qualifications will change by the time Super  Tuesday hits. Also I think he'd honestly rather not debate and just spend money on ads.

[Tender Branson]

Poor Yang:

WASHINGTON — The Democratic National Committee on Monday rejected a request from presidential candidate Andrew Yang to commission four early state qualifying polls ahead of the next Democratic debate in Iowa on Jan. 14.

Yang made the proposal in a letter dated Dec. 21 to DNC Chairman Tom Perez, which was obtained Monday by NBC News, in which he argued that a "diverse set of candidates might be absent from the stage in Des Moines for reasons out of anyone’s control."

"It has been 38 days since a qualifying poll in Iowa, New Hampshire, or Nevada was taken. As you know, big shifts can happen within short periods in this race, as we’ve already witnessed multiple times," Yang wrote.

Yang then asked for the DNC to commission polls in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina by Jan. 10.

"It would provide an accurate snapshot of the current state of the race and where voters’ hearts and minds are, thus getting ahead of an imminent problem," he said.

The DNC doesn’t typically conduct public polls, though it does conduct private polls for internal purposes, which are not released. In a statement later on Monday, the DNC said it would not sponsor additional polls.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/andrew-yang-asks-dnc-more-qualifying-polls-ahead-january-debate-n1108646

[GeneralMacArthur]

Poor Yang:

WASHINGTON — The Democratic National Committee on Monday rejected a request from presidential candidate Andrew Yang to commission four early state qualifying polls ahead of the next Democratic debate in Iowa on Jan. 14.

Yang made the proposal in a letter dated Dec. 21 to DNC Chairman Tom Perez, which was obtained Monday by NBC News, in which he argued that a "diverse set of candidates might be absent from the stage in Des Moines for reasons out of anyone’s control."

"It has been 38 days since a qualifying poll in Iowa, New Hampshire, or Nevada was taken. As you know, big shifts can happen within short periods in this race, as we’ve already witnessed multiple times," Yang wrote.

Yang then asked for the DNC to commission polls in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina by Jan. 10.

"It would provide an accurate snapshot of the current state of the race and where voters’ hearts and minds are, thus getting ahead of an imminent problem," he said.

The DNC doesn’t typically conduct public polls, though it does conduct private polls for internal purposes, which are not released. In a statement later on Monday, the DNC said it would not sponsor additional polls.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/andrew-yang-asks-dnc-more-qualifying-polls-ahead-january-debate-n1108646

While this request seems reasonable on the outset, I'm sure the last thing the DNC wants is to be held responsible for the outcome of a poll.  Every candidate who is hurt by the poll will say the DNC made the numbers up.

For example, if the poll only gives Yang 3%, his campaign will fuel the idea that the DNC invented the numbers intentionally to exclude him.

If the poll gives Sanders 12% in Iowa or something and he loses Iowa, his campaign will fuel the idea that the DNC intentionally kneecapped him by releasing the poll to generate negative media coverage and an image of weakness.

[The Other Castro]

"Give us a poll!"

DNC commissions a poll, shows Yang and Gabbard at 2%

"RIGGED!"

[Cinemark]

I am hopeful we'll get a few polls next week, although I'm not positive they'll be early state polls.

Apparently the Des Moines Register is having financial issues right now, so them paying Selzer for a poll seems unlikely. The other major pollsters are probably still hoping to get more national numbers to check public opinion on impeachment. Maybe CBS will get YouGov to poll Iowa?

I dont envy the Yang Gang right now, although its alittle early to be jumping in the conspiracy theory pool, especially when Yang is only polling at 4% nationally on a good day.

[Tender Branson]

I am hopeful we'll get a few polls this week, although I'm not positive they'll be early state polls.

Apparently the Des Moines Register is having financial issues right now, so them paying Selzer for a poll seems unlikely. The other major pollsters are probably still hoping to get more national numbers to check public opinion on impeachment. Maybe CBS will get YouGov to poll Iowa?

I dont envy the Yang Gang right now, although its alittle early to be jumping in the conspiracy theory pool, especially when Yang is only polling at 4% nationally on a good day.

Not going to happen.

This week is pretty bad, because New Year is a holiday and it’s a Wednesday.

Pollsters need 3-5 business days to create a poll, especially now that Americans are answering the phones less and less.

And considering the cutoff date is next Thursday, I don’t see more than one or two polls being released until then ...

[Cinemark]

I am hopeful we'll get a few polls this week, although I'm not positive they'll be early state polls.

Apparently the Des Moines Register is having financial issues right now, so them paying Selzer for a poll seems unlikely. The other major pollsters are probably still hoping to get more national numbers to check public opinion on impeachment. Maybe CBS will get YouGov to poll Iowa?

I dont envy the Yang Gang right now, although its alittle early to be jumping in the conspiracy theory pool, especially when Yang is only polling at 4% nationally on a good day.

Not going to happen.

This week is pretty bad, because New Year is a holiday and it’s a Wednesday.

Pollsters need 3-5 business days to create a poll, especially now that Americans are answering the phones less and less.

And considering the cutoff date is next Thursday, I don’t see more than one or two polls being released until then ...

Yeah, I meant next week.

[Mr. Morden]

And considering the cutoff date is next Thursday...

The question is, what happens if the impeachment trial starts, and they end up delaying the debate to accommodate the unavailability of the Senators in the debate?  Do they push the polling deadline?

[Tintrlvr]

I am hopeful we'll get a few polls next week, although I'm not positive they'll be early state polls.

Apparently the Des Moines Register is having financial issues right now, so them paying Selzer for a poll seems unlikely. The other major pollsters are probably still hoping to get more national numbers to check public opinion on impeachment. Maybe CBS will get YouGov to poll Iowa?

I dont envy the Yang Gang right now, although its alittle early to be jumping in the conspiracy theory pool, especially when Yang is only polling at 4% nationally on a good day.

It would be shocking if we didn’t get another Selzer poll before the caucus. Maybe not until after the qualification deadline for the debate, though.

[GeneralMacArthur]

I am hopeful we'll get a few polls next week, although I'm not positive they'll be early state polls.

Apparently the Des Moines Register is having financial issues right now, so them paying Selzer for a poll seems unlikely. The other major pollsters are probably still hoping to get more national numbers to check public opinion on impeachment. Maybe CBS will get YouGov to poll Iowa?

I dont envy the Yang Gang right now, although its alittle early to be jumping in the conspiracy theory pool, especially when Yang is only polling at 4% nationally on a good day.

It would be shocking if we didn’t get another Selzer poll before the caucus. Maybe not until after the qualification deadline for the debate, though.

We're going to get at least 2 more Selzer polls before the caucus.

[Blue3]

I'm actually very happy we're finally getting a 5-person debate. I would prefer it was only the top 4, but I'll take it.

[Tender Branson]

Theoretically, Steyer now has the necessary donors for the debate this month.

Of course, there are no polls where he could qualify ...

[Tender Branson]

As of today, Gabbard has 217.000 of the necessary 225.000 donors and has until Friday to reach that goal.

So, 6 days for 8.000 donors.