Who's going to qualify for the Democratic debates?

[Mr. Morden]

Ehh, why has Steyer got a NV qualifying poll ?

The rules say 2 state polls from NV or SC with 12% or more.

Steyer got 11% in the last poll ...

No, you've got it wrong.  You can *either* get 4 polls at 10% or more that are national, NV, or SC polls, *or* 2 polls at 12% from NV or SC (but not national).  Steyer has one poll at 10%+ from Nevada, so he's 1/4 on that track for qualification, but could also qualify if he gets two more polls of NV or SC at 12%+.

[The Other Castro]

February SC debate chart:

[Mr. Morden]

I guess we didn't get any polls on the morning shows today, Bloomberg's chances of getting another qualifying poll by Tuesday are not looking great at the moment.

Which qualifying pollsters ever release polls on Monday and Tuesday?  I think Monmouth and Quinnipiac often do, but Bloomberg already has qualifying polls from both of them, so can't use them again.  I believe ABC/WaPo and NBC/WSJ always release on the weekend (so they'd both be out by now if it was happening today, because they'd have had to hit the morning shows and Sunday newspapers).  The last CNN national poll was released on a Wednesday, so if it follows that pattern again, even if we get one this week, it'll be too late to qualify for the Nevada debate (but would count for the SC debate).

That leaves NPR/Marist and USA Today/Suffolk.  The last national polls they released came out on a Monday and Tuesday respectively, so maybe there's a chance we'll get one of those in the coming days?  In both cases, their last national poll was back in December, so either that's long enough that maybe we're due for another one, or maybe they've just given up on national polls for this race.

[The Free North]

Frankly, being off the debate stage might be a good thing for Mike. With the exception of Harris's short lived boom in the summer, no one has really gained a ton nationally from the debates. He has unlimited resources to tell people who he is and why he's running and can do that without the pushback from other candidates. If he gets on stage and exposes himself to smears from Sanders, etc, I might drag him down.

[Tender Branson]

A spokesperson for the billionaire former New York City mayor has said that if he qualifies, he will debate.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/democratic-debate-nevada-qualify-candidates

I guess Bloomberg is paying the pollsters considerable amounts of money so that they are not releasing a qualifying poll until tomorrow ...

[Tintrlvr]

Frankly, being off the debate stage might be a good thing for Mike. With the exception of Harris's short lived boom in the summer, no one has really gained a ton nationally from the debates. He has unlimited resources to tell people who he is and why he's running and can do that without the pushback from other candidates. If he gets on stage and exposes himself to smears from Sanders, etc, I might drag him down.

Completely agree, which is also I think why Bloomberg never objected to the fact that donations were used as debate qualifiers before. He'd rather not be at any debates.

[Mr. Morden]

Marist national poll is coming out tomorrow, which will qualify Bloomberg for this week's debate if he gets at least 10%:

https://twitter.com/brianstelter/status/1229559918962843648

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Since Bloomberg's campaign is self-funded, that means that Wayne Messem got more donations than him. Remember when an atlasian donated to him as a joke?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Bloomberg qualified.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Bloomy got it!


https://www.npr.org/2020/02/18/806703427/npr-pbs-newshour-marist-poll-sanders-leads-bloomberg-qualifies-for-debate
NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll: Sanders Leads, Bloomberg Qualifies For Debate

[Mr. Morden]

Bloomberg qualified for the Nevada debate, and is one poll away from qualifying for the South Carolina debate.

[Mr. Morden]

The NBC/WSJ poll that just came out has Bloomberg above 10%, so he's just qualified for the South Carolina debate next week.

So currently, we have 6 candidates having qualified for both tomorrow's NV debate and next week's SC debate:

Biden, Bloomberg, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Sanders, Warren

Steyer is presumably not going to get enough polls to qualify for this week's debate, since the deadline is now.  He's still got a shot at making next week's debate though if he either gets some delegates in NV or gets some qualifying SC polls.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

5 Moderates vs. one extremist, who will win?

[Mr. Morden]

The Winthrop poll of SC gives Steyer one qualifying poll of SC at 12%+.  If he gets one more qualifying SC poll at at least 12%, then he’ll qualify for next week’s debate.  Alternatively, he can get in by either getting three more qualifying national of SC polls at 10%, or else by winning at least one delegate in Nevada.

[Blue3]

5 Moderates vs. one extremist, who will win?

Answer: none of the moderates.

[Senator Spiral]

The new CBS/YouGov poll looks to qualify Steyer for the next debate since he earned 18%.

[The Other Castro]

Every candidate except Gabbard has now qualified.

[IceSpear]

The new CBS/YouGov poll looks to qualify Steyer for the next debate since he earned 18%.

Biden cannot catch a break.

[John Dule]

Steyer is in. Incredibly good news for Sanders.

[Mr. Morden]

Interesting question is how much longer this thread is going to last.  After Tuesday we have one more debate scheduled (March 15th in Phoenix), with the promise of one more after that at a date and time TBD.  Though there could end up being even more if the race were to remain competitive late in the game, but it may well not be.

But which candidates will even be left in the race by March 15th, and will the DNC continue to bother with these participation criteria?  Or at some point will they just say "Everyone left in the race minus Gabbard is invited"? 

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/akarl_smith/status/1232325989495164929

[The Free North]

https://twitter.com/akarl_smith/status/1232325989495164929

Bloomberg ecstatic he doesn't have to be next to Liz again.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/akarl_smith/status/1232325989495164929

Bloomberg ecstatic he doesn't have to be next to Liz again.

And Liz is disappointed that she doesn't get to commit his literal murder again.

[Mr. Morden]

Interesting question is how much longer this thread is going to last.  After Tuesday we have one more debate scheduled (March 15th in Phoenix), with the promise of one more after that at a date and time TBD.  Though there could end up being even more if the race were to remain competitive late in the game, but it may well not be.

Bumping this post-Super Tuesday, given all the winnowing we've had.  Again, we have this debate on March 15th.  We don't yet know what the qualification criteria will be, but I assume that it'll be set to exclude Gabbard, and include Biden, Sanders, and Warren (if Warren is still running at that point).  There's the promise of one more debate at some point, but we don't know when (probably April).

I'm wondering if that'll be it then, and also wondering if Warren will drop out in time for there to ever be any Biden vs. Sanders 1-on-1 debates.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting question is how much longer this thread is going to last.  After Tuesday we have one more debate scheduled (March 15th in Phoenix), with the promise of one more after that at a date and time TBD.  Though there could end up being even more if the race were to remain competitive late in the game, but it may well not be.

Bumping this post-Super Tuesday, given all the winnowing we've had.  Again, we have this debate on March 15th.  We don't yet know what the qualification criteria will be, but I assume that it'll be set to exclude Gabbard, and include Biden, Sanders, and Warren (if Warren is still running at that point).  There's the promise of one more debate at some point, but we don't know when (probably April).

I'm wondering if that'll be it then, and also wondering if Warren will drop out in time for there to ever be any Biden vs. Sanders 1-on-1 debates.

Wouldn't Gabbard be qualified for that debate, if you use current requirements (at least one delegate, which she now has) ?

But I guess they will raise the delegate threshold to block her from participating.

It's the undemocratic Democratic National Committee after all ...