Predict Bevin's margin of victory

[Politician]

Updated prediction: Bevin wins by 2 points.

Bevin loses the following counties: Jefferson, Fayette, Franklin, Elliott, Rowan, Bath, Menifee, Wolfe, Carroll, and Marion.

[MT Treasurer]

7% at best, more like 3-5%. Bevin is less competent/popular than McConnell, Kentucky is more Democratic-friendly in gubernatorial elections than in federal races, it’s an off-year election and not a presidential year, etc.

[LoneStarDem]

I'm going Bevin wins (55% to 42%).

[Xing]

Did another poll come out showing Bevin losing? Or do we still just have a now old poll showing him down 8 (and KY polls are NEVER wrong.) I could see Bevin only winning by single digits if he really runs a terrible campaign, but he's not going to lose, lol. I am factoring in his unpopularity, since I'm currently predicting he wins by 10-12%, rather than 25%+.

[LoneStarDem]

It's been awhile since an incumbent KY Governor lost reelection as was the case in 2007 when the deeply-despised Ernie Fletcher (R) got punked by Daddy Beshear.

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/440654-poll-kentuckys-matt-bevin-now-the-most-unpopular-governor-in-us

Bevin's down 19 in approval rating, and that's never good.

McConnell would like to sink Bevin; he hasn't forgotten Bevin's primary challenge.  Cocaine Mitch is capable of sinking Bevin's campaign without appearing to do so.  His absence from Bevin's re-election campaign will be fhe first sign.

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

7% at best, more like 3-5%. Bevin is less competent/popular than McConnell, Kentucky is more Democratic-friendly in gubernatorial elections than in federal races, it’s an off-year election and not a presidential year, etc.

This.  He is not doing himself any favors at all.  He will probably eek it out on the strong Republican fundamentals of KY in the Trump era, but there's a real possibility he loses.

Worth noting though that KY governor is basically a figurehead role when the opposition party has meaningful majorities in both houses of the legislature.  It's a simple majority veto override state.   

The bolded part; how did THAT happen?

I'm quoting an old The Almanac of American Politics.  "There is no question as to who sits atop Kentucky's political structure; the Governor."  Kentucky's Governors have long been considered the leaders of Kentucky's political factions.  The Governor was the unquestioned leader of his political party, with vast patronage powers.  How was this undone over the years?

[IceSpear]

Did another poll come out showing Bevin losing? Or do we still just have a now old poll showing him down 8 (and KY polls are NEVER wrong.) I could see Bevin only winning by single digits if he really runs a terrible campaign, but he's not going to lose, lol. I am factoring in his unpopularity, since I'm currently predicting he wins by 10-12%, rather than 25%+.

[Politician]

Did another poll come out showing Bevin losing? Or do we still just have a now old poll showing him down 8 (and KY polls are NEVER wrong.) I could see Bevin only winning by single digits if he really runs a terrible campaign, but he's not going to lose, lol. I am factoring in his unpopularity, since I'm currently predicting he wins by 10-12%, rather than 25%+.

Look, I understand "racist hicks" is your shtick, but can you please explain to me how a governor with a -19 approval rating in an off-year running for re-election is safe to get it?

McConnell IS inevitable, though. It's a Senate race and he's a much better campaigner than Bevin.

[IceSpear]

Did another poll come out showing Bevin losing? Or do we still just have a now old poll showing him down 8 (and KY polls are NEVER wrong.) I could see Bevin only winning by single digits if he really runs a terrible campaign, but he's not going to lose, lol. I am factoring in his unpopularity, since I'm currently predicting he wins by 10-12%, rather than 25%+.

Look, I understand "racist hicks" is your shtick, but can you please explain to me how a governor with a -19 approval rating in an off-year running for re-election is safe to get it?

McConnell IS inevitable, though. It's a Senate race and he's a much better campaigner than Bevin.

Muhry Fallin was at 80% disapproval and Kevin Stitt was underwater in 2018 and yet Republican retained the governorship by double digits. Andy Beshear would be relying on exactly the same types of Demosaurs in Kentucky that failed to flip D in sufficient numbers in Oklahoma just last year.

He's already forgotten about The Inevitable Kevin Stitt.

[Politician]

Did another poll come out showing Bevin losing? Or do we still just have a now old poll showing him down 8 (and KY polls are NEVER wrong.) I could see Bevin only winning by single digits if he really runs a terrible campaign, but he's not going to lose, lol. I am factoring in his unpopularity, since I'm currently predicting he wins by 10-12%, rather than 25%+.

Look, I understand "racist hicks" is your shtick, but can you please explain to me how a governor with a -19 approval rating in an off-year running for re-election is safe to get it?

McConnell IS inevitable, though. It's a Senate race and he's a much better campaigner than Bevin.

Muhry Fallin was at 80% disapproval and Kevin Stitt was underwater in 2018 and yet Republican retained the governorship by double digits. Andy Beshear would be relying on exactly the same types of Demosaurs in Kentucky that failed to flip D in sufficient numbers in Oklahoma just last year.

He's already forgotten about The Inevitable Kevin Stitt.

There's just one problem with that comparison: Stitt had above water approvals.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MT and Xing are the only ones aside from blue avatars that think this race is Lean R. Bevin is not McConnell

[Rookie Yinzer]

2) Kentucky's hatred for Democrats increases exponentially every year. They hate Democrats even more in 2019 than they did in 2016. I don't know why you all obsess over winning deep red states. They hate all Democrats. They hate you. They hate me. They hate Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, or whoever else you like politically. They despise the Democratic Party and everything it stands for. GET OVER IT! The "WWC #populist " obsessed Atlas posters are like the jilted ex that still obsesses over and begs their ex to give them another chance, even though their ex hates them with every fiber of their being and wants absolutely nothing to do with them ever again.

I've never felt stronger about any post on this site.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Did another poll come out showing Bevin losing? Or do we still just have a now old poll showing him down 8 (and KY polls are NEVER wrong.) I could see Bevin only winning by single digits if he really runs a terrible campaign, but he's not going to lose, lol. I am factoring in his unpopularity, since I'm currently predicting he wins by 10-12%, rather than 25%+.

Look, I understand "racist hicks" is your shtick, but can you please explain to me how a governor with a -19 approval rating in an off-year running for re-election is safe to get it?

McConnell IS inevitable, though. It's a Senate race and he's a much better campaigner than Bevin.

Muhry Fallin was at 80% disapproval and Kevin Stitt was underwater in 2018 and yet Republican retained the governorship by double digits. Andy Beshear would be relying on exactly the same types of Demosaurs in Kentucky that failed to flip D in sufficient numbers in Oklahoma just last year.

Except Kentucky last elected a Democrat statewide in 2015, whereas Oklahoma hasn't since 2006. Oklahoma has also been consistently and significantly more Republican than Kentucky for quite some time now.

[Yang2020]

Beshear will win the primary and then the general by probably 3-4%. I live in Lexington and everyone I've talked to is beyond done with Bevin. He's toast. I sure as hell will not vote for him (didn't the first time around either).

I imagine this will be around the final result:

[Yang2020]

Beshear will win the primary and then the general by probably 3-4%. I live in Lexington and everyone I've talked to is beyond done with Bevin. He's toast. I sure as hell will not vote for him (didn't the first time around either).

Was everyone you talked to in 2016 beyond done with Trump too, because Lexington also voted 40 points to the left of the state in 2016 lol

Energized urban turnout plus pickup of some rural counties will guarantee a Beshear win. See my map.

[Yang2020]

Beshear will win the primary and then the general by probably 3-4%. I live in Lexington and everyone I've talked to is beyond done with Bevin. He's toast. I sure as hell will not vote for him (didn't the first time around either).

Was everyone you talked to in 2016 beyond done with Trump too, because Lexington also voted 40 points to the left of the state in 2016 lol

Energized urban turnout plus pickup of some rural counties will guarantee a Beshear win. See my map.

Yeah, are you drunk posting? you have Beshear winning rural counties he lost by 25+ points in 2015 in that map

Are you drunk/mentally defective? Beshear didn't even run in 2015 for governor, he ran for AG. Beshear is a much more popular figure and a much stronger candidate overall. Bevin is extremely unpopular statewide.

[henster]

I think Edelen would be the strongest candidate to beat Bevin decently. He has the least baggage with no voting record and Beshear's Boy Scout stuff is going to have legs along with other cases he had when he was attorney. Adkins has a 30+ year voting record to attack along with some votes on abortion & guns that will surely hurt him against Bevin.

[Mr. Smith]

5 points. His unpopularity does mean something, after all.

No it doesn’t because something something polarization and racist hicks. Gubernatorial races are now just as partisan as Senate races, just ask governors Vitter, Jealous, Kobach,...

You're right, I remember Governors Gillum, Conway, Crist Part II, Michaud, C&*inelli, Burke, Abrams, Foley, Ross, and Sutton were quite good ones.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The state assembly in KY overrode Bevin's veto of a school tax hike, to increase funding for schools last yr. The state assembly was on the same page as Beshear

KY have voted for a Beshesr before and will do it again; eventhough, the Dems and GOPers are at arms length in tax cuts

[MT Treasurer]

Did another poll come out showing Bevin losing? Or do we still just have a now old poll showing him down 8 (and KY polls are NEVER wrong.) I could see Bevin only winning by single digits if he really runs a terrible campaign, but he's not going to lose, lol. I am factoring in his unpopularity, since I'm currently predicting he wins by 10-12%, rather than 25%+.

Rand Paul was hardly unpopular and still won a Senate race by only 14 points in a R wave year with Trump at the top of the ticket. Somehow I doubt that Bevin is only going to do two points worse than Paul.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Did another poll come out showing Bevin losing? Or do we still just have a now old poll showing him down 8 (and KY polls are NEVER wrong.) I could see Bevin only winning by single digits if he really runs a terrible campaign, but he's not going to lose, lol. I am factoring in his unpopularity, since I'm currently predicting he wins by 10-12%, rather than 25%+.

Rand Paul was hardly unpopular and still won a Senate race by only 14 points in a R wave year with Trump at the top of the ticket. Somehow I doubt that Bevin is only going to do two points worse than Paul.

Jim Gray's numbers in coal country are going to be hard to replicate in 2019, to be fair.

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

2) Kentucky's hatred for Democrats increases exponentially every year. They hate Democrats even more in 2019 than they did in 2016. I don't know why you all obsess over winning deep red states. They hate all Democrats. They hate you. They hate me. They hate Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, or whoever else you like politically. They despise the Democratic Party and everything it stands for. GET OVER IT! The "WWC #populist " obsessed Atlas posters are like the jilted ex that still obsesses over and begs their ex to give them another chance, even though their ex hates them with every fiber of their being and wants absolutely nothing to do with them ever again.

I've never felt stronger about any post on this site.

There are some things that bear noting:

1.  Kentucky is still a relatively unionized state (although much of it is the United Mine Workers).

2.  Kentucky has had a history of counties staying true to Civil War Democratic roots.  This includes counties going for McGovern in 1972; counties that did not have particularly high concentrations of black voters.

3.  Kentucky has elected a Democratic Governor as recently as 2011 and has OUSTED a Republican Governor as recently as 2007.

I would not expect Kentucky to carry for the national Democratic ticket, but I would not be shocked if they elected a Democratic Governor in 2019.

[KaiserDave]

Between 6 and 10 percent.

Here's a better question, would Adkins do better compared to Beshear?

[Politician]

Between 6 and 10 percent.

Here's a better question, would Adkins do better compared to Beshear?

Yes. He's pro-life (removes one of Bevin's best lines of attack) and provides much-needed strength in coal country.