Predict Bevin's margin of victory

[Xing]

How much will soon-to-be re-elected Governor Bevin win by? I'm guessing about 10%, which is pathetic for a Republican in Kentucky, but about as well as Democrats can hope to do these days. I know many people here want to believe the most recent poll, but Governor Conway and Senator Grimes can attest to how accurate Kentucky polling is, especially early polling. And to those who say that surely Kentucky polls will be right this time, people said the same thing about Nevada, and how well did that work out for Senator Heck, Still-Senator UTDH and Governor Laxalt?

[YE]

100% to 0%.

[Fuzzy Bear]

5-10%, but it may be lower. 

I do think Bevin will win, somehow.  He's not Ernie Fletcher.

[Calthrina950]

How much will soon-to-be re-elected Governor Bevin win by? I'm guessing about 10%, which is pathetic for a Republican in Kentucky, but about as well as Democrats can hope to do these days. I know many people here want to believe the most recent poll, but Governor Conway and Senator Grimes can attest to how accurate Kentucky polling is, especially early polling. And to those who say that surely Kentucky polls will be right this time, people said the same thing about Nevada, and how well did that work out for Senator Heck, Still-Senator UTDH and Governor Laxalt?

10% seems reasonable to me. This could end up being a redux of 2014, when it appeared that McConnell was "in danger" and he ended up winning by 16%. Kentucky is too far gone for the Democrats, as KY-06 showed last year, and I predict that Republicans will sweep all of the statewide offices.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He wont win Beshear by 3

[Adam Griffin]

Slightly better than 2015 (I'd say 8 points).

[Progressive Pessimist]

11%.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

9 months before an election and an incumbent is at 40% in the polls doesnt look good for him

[ElectionsGuy]

It might be by the same amount as last time, but the county margins are certain to be different.

[😥]

-3%. He will lose to Beshear

[President Johnson]

He will win 54-42%. So, about twelve points.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

KY is known to elect statewide Dems like Grimes and Beshear who is in office already. They liked his father, who was a Beshear as well.

This is why Beshear will win.

[Woody]

14%

[Alabama_Indy10]

KY is known to elect statewide Dems like Grimes and Beshear who is in office already. They liked his father, who was a Beshear as well.

This is why Beshear will win.

What happened with Jack Conway?

[Farmlands]

I may have given up hope for Kansas, but I won't lose hope here until the polls show the race is too far gone, I know some kentuckians who need a democratic win. Beshear wins by 3 points.

[MT Treasurer]

The idea that an incumbent governor with such an abysmally low approval rating is safe in an off-year election just because he won under extremely favorable conditions four years ago (when Republicans were much more motivated than Democrats) is ludicrous. I think he’ll win, but it won’t be a landslide like this forum seems to think. "Safe R because Kentucky/polarization" is incredibly lazy #analysis, even by this forum's standards.

[Sir Mohamed]

approx. 14%.

Bevin wins 55-41%, but polls up to late September will show a close race and Atlas thinks Andy Beshear has a real shot to get elected. In October, polls turn, showing Bevin ahead by 5-6% and in the end he crushes by double digits. It's always the same playbook in these states.

[lfromnj]

The idea that an incumbent governor with such an abysmally low approval rating is safe in an off-year election just because he won under extremely favorable conditions four years ago (when Republicans were much more motivated than Democrats) is ludicrous. I think he’ll win, but it won’t be a landslide like this forum seems to think. "Safe R because Kentucky/polarization" is incredibly lazy #analysis, even by this forum's standards.

isn't his approval only like -15?

Thats bad but not bad enough to vote for the D.

Obviously if hits -30 and lower I might start talking.

[MT Treasurer]

The idea that an incumbent governor with such an abysmally low approval rating is safe in an off-year election just because he won under extremely favorable conditions four years ago (when Republicans were much more motivated than Democrats) is ludicrous. I think he’ll win, but it won’t be a landslide like this forum seems to think. "Safe R because Kentucky/polarization" is incredibly lazy #analysis, even by this forum's standards.

isn't his approval only like -15?

Thats bad but not bad enough to vote for the D.

Obviously if hits -30 and lower I might start talking.

Paul was relatively popular and only won by 14 in 2016, and that was in a presidential year when Trump won the state by 30 points... why on earth would someone like Bevin be safe/win by double digits in an off-year election when Democrats are more energized?

[smoltchanov]

5-10% most likely

[Zaybay]

I have no clue what Bevin's margin of victory/defeat will be, and Im usually bad at predicting margins. All I know is that this thread will be quoted multiple times the during/after the election.

[Esteemed Jimmy]

5-10%

[Xing]

The idea that an incumbent governor with such an abysmally low approval rating is safe in an off-year election just because he won under extremely favorable conditions four years ago (when Republicans were much more motivated than Democrats) is ludicrous. I think he’ll win, but it won’t be a landslide like this forum seems to think. "Safe R because Kentucky/polarization" is incredibly lazy #analysis, even by this forum's standards.

McConnell is extremely unpopular and still won by 15% in 2014, when all the pundits called it a Toss-Up race and the Democrats spent the kitchen sink to try and defeat him. If Kentucky were less Republican-leaning, maybe Bevin would be vulnerable, but it's become one of the most Republican states in the country, and it's not electing a Democrat statewide this year. Grimes seems to understand that.

[President Johnson]

The idea that an incumbent governor with such an abysmally low approval rating is safe in an off-year election just because he won under extremely favorable conditions four years ago (when Republicans were much more motivated than Democrats) is ludicrous. I think he’ll win, but it won’t be a landslide like this forum seems to think. "Safe R because Kentucky/polarization" is incredibly lazy #analysis, even by this forum's standards.

McConnell is extremely unpopular and still won by 15% in 2014, when all the pundits called it a Toss-Up race and the Democrats spent the kitchen sink to try and defeat him. If Kentucky were less Republican-leaning, maybe Bevin would be vulnerable, but it's become one of the most Republican states in the country, and it's not electing a Democrat statewide this year. Grimes seems to understand that.

I agree. The question is only why the polls often got this wrong and give Democrats false hopes. The shy Trump voter? Or do Republican voters just wake up late into the cycle?

[Don Vito Corleone]

5-6 points, around 50-45 or 51-45. People are exaggerating how Republican KY is. If Rand's opponent can get 43% with Trump on top of the ballot Bevin's opponent can get 45-46%, maybe even a little higher. I agree a Democrat could not get a majority of the vote in almost any circumstance though.