Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Omega21]

ÖVP Voters prefer NEOS then FPÖ as Coalition Partners

Which is logical, NEOS is the rich people (businessman) party, and they are not crazy far-left like the Greens.

Still, interesting to see what Kurz will do considering only 1/5 of his voters want Greens in the Coalition.

[Walmart_shopper]

Besides FPÖ+SPÖ+Pilz, the big losers are the pollsters this time.

I knew there was some herding going on ...

Yeah, one of the big stories is how the polls totally failed this time - vastly underestimating ÖVP and Greens, vastly overestimating the FPÖ, who have their worst result since 2006.

Pollsters are so used to underestimating the anti-establishment right-wing parties it does appear in a few places they've actually adjusted their methods too much, now overestimating those parties support.

It was the same in Sweden last year, the Sweden Democrats were actually overestimated by pollsters.

We saw this phenomenon here a couple of weeks ago, too. And obviously in Spain a few months ago.

[Tender Branson]

Besides FPÖ+SPÖ+Pilz, the big losers are the pollsters this time.

I knew there was some herding going on ...

Yeah, one of the big stories is how the polls totally failed this time - vastly underestimating ÖVP and Greens, vastly overestimating the FPÖ, who have their worst result since 2006.

Pollsters are so used to underestimating the anti-establishment right-wing parties it does appear in a few places they've actually adjusted their methods too much, now overestimating those parties support.

It was the same in Sweden last year, the Sweden Democrats were actually overestimated by pollsters.

We saw this phenomenon here a couple of weeks ago, too. And obviously in Spain a few months ago.

On the other hand, the pollsters are not really to blame this time, because the last polls were released a week ago and the FPÖ's new scandal (expenses, bodyguard, Hofer's fence) all became known in the final week.

[parochial boy]

Besides FPÖ+SPÖ+Pilz, the big losers are the pollsters this time.

I knew there was some herding going on ...

Yeah, one of the big stories is how the polls totally failed this time - vastly underestimating ÖVP and Greens, vastly overestimating the FPÖ, who have their worst result since 2006.

Pollsters are so used to underestimating the anti-establishment right-wing parties it does appear in a few places they've actually adjusted their methods too much, now overestimating those parties support.

It was the same in Sweden last year, the Sweden Democrats were actually overestimated by pollsters.

We saw this phenomenon here a couple of weeks ago, too. And obviously in Spain a few months ago.

From what I've been led to believe, the pollsters are getting pretty accurate raw data as far as the RWPP's are concerned; but still adjusting them up as they expect to be underpolling them. Part of th reason the French polls have been pretty accurate with the RN vote is because they have relaxed a lot of the weightings that they used to apply.

[DL]

I guess the danger for the Greens is that if they become a junior coalition partner to the OVP and Kurz continues with his attacks on immigrants and LGBTQ people, the Greens could end up suffering the same fate as the Lib Dems in the UK in 2015 when their voters révoltes over them supporting the Tories and all their austerity

[Tender Branson]

Graz live count:

http://wahl19.graz.at/ergebnisse/nr60101.html

Greens: 25% (+19%)
Pilz: 3% (-4%)

SPÖ: -11% (!)

[rob in cal]

And we still have mail ballots to be counted tomorrow right? which should help Greens even more.

[Cranberry]

And we still have mail ballots to be counted tomorrow right? which should help Greens even more.

They are already included in the prognosis, the Greens are much weaker in what's currently counted. Could change a mandate or two between parties, but not much more.

[Walmart_shopper]

Graz live count:

http://wahl19.graz.at/ergebnisse/nr60101.html

Greens: 25% (+19%)
Pilz: 3% (-4%)

SPÖ: -11% (!)

What is the political profile of Graz? Hipster lefties? Old white people? Migrants? Students?

[bigic]

Graz live count:

http://wahl19.graz.at/ergebnisse/nr60101.html

Greens: 25% (+19%)
Pilz: 3% (-4%)

SPÖ: -11% (!)

AFAIK Graz is a Communist (KPO) stronghold when it comes to the local and state elections - they fare badly in the national elections due to them being unlikely to cross the threshold?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What is the political profile of Graz? Hipster lefties? Old white people? Migrants? Students?

University city.

[Oryxslayer]

Voralberg is done for now....at least the surface results suggest there were either some fPo->green voters, or a lot of OVP->Green Voters who were canceled out by FPO->OVP voters.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

ÖVP will be the biggest party in both Burgenland and Carinthia, if they actually managed to top the polls in Vienna as well they'll be the biggest party in all states. Do anyone know if that has ever happened in a previous election since WWII?

[RGM2609]

Any chance for an OVP-SPO coalition?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

ÖVP will be the biggest party in both Burgenland and Carinthia, if they actually managed to top the polls in Vienna as well they'll be the biggest party in all states. Do anyone know if that has ever happened in a previous election since WWII?

Never, but it seems not even this time: SPÖ ahead by about 4pts with about 70% counted.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

great results for OVP! Better them than FPO I guess.

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1178349727353581569

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Appears to be very unlikely that the OVP will surpass the SPO in Vienna because the OVP is actually bleeding some support among bourgeois voters.

[kaoras]

It's basically over in Vienna, Rotes Wien lives to see another day

[Tender Branson]

Salzburg fully counted.

It is the state with the lowest FPÖ share (14%), except Vienna (13%).

[Tender Branson]

Also annoying that turnout dropped to 75-76%.

[kaoras]

Also annoying that turnout dropped to 75-76%.

That's accounting for the mail ballots?

[Oryxslayer]

Also annoying that turnout dropped to 75-76%.

Wouldn't that increase with the mail ballots, or is it projected?

[Mike88]

Also annoying that turnout dropped to 75-76%.

Wouldn't that increase with the mail ballots, or is it projected?

I think this is projected turnout. With my math, overall turnout without mail in ballots in somewhere above 60%.

[Tender Branson]

Also annoying that turnout dropped to 75-76%.

Wouldn't that increase with the mail ballots, or is it projected?

I think this is projected turnout. With my math, overall turnout without mail in ballots in somewhere above 60%.

Yeah, they are already factored in by SORA/ORF.

Silly that a quarter of people are not voting ...