Australian Federal Election 18th of May 2019

[Lechasseur]

Labor losing its Base:


TPP swing in the Sydney area (blue towards the Coalition, red to labor):


compared to the SSM survey:

Its nice to know this realignment if happening across the world /s

The analysis this came from shows that this realignment is occuring across the board. With wealthier suburbs swinging to Labor and poorer/working class areas swinging to the Coalition.
 If this keeps going on then we'll become like Israel who was a trend starter since the 1980s with the middle class ashkenazi voting for left leaning parties and working class aka: mizrahi voting for the right due to nationalism/identity being more important than economic policy.

I don't think the trend is that new in Australia either. I believe John Howard got a lot of working class voters who normally voted Labor to vote for him in the 90s and 00s (he had his own phenomenon similar to those of the Reagan Democrats I believe), what may be newer is wealthier areas being tougher for the coalition than they used to be.

[Annatar]

2 party vote now 51.4-48.6, will probably shift a bit more towards Coalition as final votes counted, looks like we will end up at complete opposite of polls, poll average had Labor up 41.5-48.5, final result will be mirror of that, 3% miss in vote share, 6% miss in total margin using American methodology. Don't know how Nate Silver or Sean Trende can argue the polls weren't off by much, in America if Clinton had led by 3% and Trump had won by 3%, would have been viewed as huge polling miss.

[parochial boy]

Labor losing its Base:


TPP swing in the Sydney area (blue towards the Coalition, red to labor):


compared to the SSM survey:

Its nice to know this realignment if happening across the world /s

The analysis this came from shows that this realignment is occuring across the board. With wealthier suburbs swinging to Labor and poorer/working class areas swinging to the Coalition.
 If this keeps going on then we'll become like Israel who was a trend starter since the 1980s with the middle class ashkenazi voting for left leaning parties and working class aka: mizrahi voting for the right due to nationalism/identity being more important than economic policy.

This is really not a global trend. Inner City minority heavy suburbs like Cabramatta or Bankstown swining right is really not something we are seeing in most of the rest of the world

[adma]

This is really not a global trend. Inner City minority heavy suburbs like Cabramatta or Bankstown swining right is really not something we are seeing in most of the rest of the world

It's happened in Doug Ford's Ontario.

[DL]

This is really not a global trend. Inner City minority heavy suburbs like Cabramatta or Bankstown swining right is really not something we are seeing in most of the rest of the world

It's happened in Doug Ford's Ontario.

Its debatable. The Fords certainly did well in "Outer city minority heavy suburbs" (not inner)...but those were contests where their main opposition were Blue Grit/Red Tory establishment figures (i.e. Smitherman and Tory). In the provincial election it was a bit more complicated with the NDP winning the "inner city minority heavy" areas...its fair to say that when support for the old middle of the road Liberals collpases - some of that support goes left and some goes to the populist right... 

[adma]

This is really not a global trend. Inner City minority heavy suburbs like Cabramatta or Bankstown swining right is really not something we are seeing in most of the rest of the world

It's happened in Doug Ford's Ontario.

Its debatable. The Fords certainly did well in "Outer city minority heavy suburbs" (not inner)...but those were contests where their main opposition were Blue Grit/Red Tory establishment figures (i.e. Smitherman and Tory). In the provincial election it was a bit more complicated with the NDP winning the "inner city minority heavy" areas...its fair to say that when support for the old middle of the road Liberals collpases - some of that support goes left and some goes to the populist right... 

Though consider cases like Humber River-Black Creek and York South-Weston, which are the epitome of "minority heavy underclass" sorts of ridings--and while the NDP won both, it was actually with lower shares than they lost with in 2014, as the PCs polevaulted into a close second ahead of the Libs...

[Wazza [INACTIVE]]

That Guardian #analysis^tm was premature. Labor swings are declining in the Northern Sydney electorates as the Liberal favouring postal votes come in and theres still a significant chunk of votes left to be counted (15-20%).

You aren't going to see Newcastle, Wollongong and Western Sydney voting Liberal any time soon, and you aren't going to see the Northern Beaches, North Shore and Upper Eastern Suburbs voting Labor/Greens anytime soon. Bradfield and Mackellar swinging slightly to Labor doesn't justify this dumb hype over "muh suburb and WWC trends^tm

[Wazza [INACTIVE]]

I should also point out that these independents in Wentworth and Warringah aren't ideologically like Labor or the Greens. The competition in these electorates are essentially Liberal vs. Liberal-lite. So no you won't see Vaucluse Greenies for a long time to come.

[adma]

You aren't going to see Newcastle, Wollongong and Western Sydney voting Liberal any time soon, and you aren't going to see the Northern Beaches, North Shore and Upper Eastern Suburbs voting Labor/Greens anytime soon. Bradfield and Mackellar swinging slightly to Labor doesn't justify this dumb hype over "muh suburb and WWC trends^tm

I don't think the "dumb hype" is over such seats actually being viable, as much as it's over the gentrification-of-Labor effort being wasted.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I think that's the point. Labor really wants those North Shore voters but they are fundamentally at odds with the party itself (which is not to say their policies, as much as the party's image - especially in a state like NSW). The ALP is not the Canadian Liberal Party, and is not becoming them anytime soon.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The idea - the dream, the delusion; call it what you will - is that cultural politics can be used to expand the map for Labor, so that the route to power isn't dependent on fickle and self-interested voters in the outer suburbs and on surly voters in regional seats. But it just doesn't work; it won't ever work.

[Colbert]

translation :

gauches=lefts
ecologistes=greens
droite/centre=moderate right
conservateurs=right-wing not clearly anti-immigration
nationalistes=right-wing openly anti-immigration

I choose to put together parties in ideological blocks. Because of the very small results of marxist parties, left-liberals, I put them in the "lefts" block. I put centre parties and classical economic liberalism/libertarian in the moderate block.


(forgive me to not share a total english picture, but I use so many time to create this (no pixel color degrade on the assembly image, I standardize every pixel of the assemblies images^^) than I am too lazy to create a total-english picture)


results of parties compare to last election. Some parties didn't run in 2016, in this case, I chose the nearest ideological ancestor.

[Colbert]

PS : I check every district to categorizing every "independent" candidates. The results of the "2 party preferential voting" was very useful.

(godamm, I hate so much non-labelled candidates !)

[Deep Dixieland Senator, Muad'dib (OSR MSR)]

translation :
gauches=lefts
ecologistes=greens
droite/centre=moderate right
conservateurs=right-wing not clearly anti-immigration
nationalistes=right-wing openly anti-immigration

I choose to put together parties in ideological blocks. Because of the very small results of marxist parties, left-liberals, I put them in the "lefts" block. I put centre parties and classical economic liberalism/libertarian in the moderate block.

(forgive me to not share a total english picture, but I use so many time to create this (no pixel color degrade on the assembly image, I standardize every pixel of the assemblies images^^) than I am too lazy to create a total-english picture)

results of parties compare to last election. Some parties didn't run in 2016, in this case, I chose the nearest ideological ancestor.

This is misleading as the LNP are a merger in Queensland on the Liberals and National parties.

[Tintrlvr]

translation :
gauches=lefts
ecologistes=greens
droite/centre=moderate right
conservateurs=right-wing not clearly anti-immigration
nationalistes=right-wing openly anti-immigration

I choose to put together parties in ideological blocks. Because of the very small results of marxist parties, left-liberals, I put them in the "lefts" block. I put centre parties and classical economic liberalism/libertarian in the moderate block.

(forgive me to not share a total english picture, but I use so many time to create this (no pixel color degrade on the assembly image, I standardize every pixel of the assemblies images^^) than I am too lazy to create a total-english picture)

results of parties compare to last election. Some parties didn't run in 2016, in this case, I chose the nearest ideological ancestor.

This is misleading as the LNP are a merger in Queensland on the Liberals and National parties.

Trying to draw a principled distinction between the Liberals and the Nationals these days is a mistaken approach I think. But, if you were able to do so, it's fairer to lump the LNP with the Nationals than the Liberals since the Nationals were the dominant party in the merger.

[JonHawk]

Looks like the coalition is doing better in the senate with likely 35 seats instead of 34 earlier in the counting. So they may only need only 4 cross benchers to pass through laws. One Nation, Australian Conservatives and Jacquie Lambie are the ones likely. The remaining 3 "in doubt" seats are in QLD with LNP, One Nation and Greens currently ahead, with 69.8% counted.

Coalition - 35
Labour - 26
Greens - 9
Centre Alliance - 2
One Nation - 2
Australian Conservatives - 1
Jacquie Lambie Network - 1

[Smid]

As always, bigger maps in the gallery, etc. Bigger versions still available upon request. Plotted using R, and relying specifically the magrittr, here, glue, tidyverse, ggvoronoi, rgeos, maptools, ggmap, broom, rgdal, sf and ggspatial packages.

These booth results only show booth on-the-day results. The preliminary results used were downloaded on Sunday morning AEST and in some cases may have been superseded by recounts and rechecks. The maps will be updated following the declaration of results.

There is no requirement to vote at a particular polling place, however many Australians vote at their nearest polling place. These maps use Voronoi polygons to make shades of colour more obvious, however this may give the false appearance of a specified booth catchment. Some booths might be small but appear large on the map. Others may spill across electorate boundaries despite not being joint booths for both electorates.

Joint booths have 2CP votes summed for all electorates voting at the booth. In cases where different parties are included in the 2CP count, this can distort the results and potentially result in a 2CP figure of less than 50%. Take, for example, a joint booth where an equal number of votes are cast from both electorates, and where one electorate voted 60-40 Liberal vs Labor and the other electorate voted 60-40 Nationals vs Labor. In this hypothetical example, the booth would appear to be 40-30-30 Labor vs Liberal vs Nationals and thus be shaded a pale red. Please be aware of this while considering the maps. Joint booths including Independents, Greens or other minor parties may be affected in this manner. One clear example is the "Melbourne" booth, which was a joint polling booth for all(?) Victorian electorates on election day. It's possible I'll update how some joint booths are handled before uploading final results, but for now, that's how it is.

2019 Australian Federal Election Two Candidate Preferred Results (Preliminary Counts) by Booth




2019 Australian Federal Election Two Candidate Preferred Results (Preliminary Counts) by Booth - Greater Brisbane


The extremely strong Labor booth in NW Brisbane is Mount Nebo.



2019 Australian Federal Election Two Candidate Preferred Results (Preliminary Counts) by Booth - Wider South-East Queensland


This map ranges from about Noosa in the North, to the Tweed and Queensland border in the South, and out to Toowoomba in the West (the cluster of LNP booths near the left edge of the map).



2019 Australian Federal Election Two Candidate Preferred Results (Preliminary Counts) by Booth - Greater Sydney


Take note of the interesting North-South divide in Wentworth, between the Liberal-voting North/harbourside, and the independent-voting South.



2019 Australian Federal Election Two Candidate Preferred Results (Preliminary Counts) by Booth - Coastal New South Wales


This map ranges from Newcastle in the North, to Woolloongong in the South. I believe the town on the Western edge of the map is Bathurst.



2019 Australian Federal Election Two Candidate Preferred Results (Preliminary Counts) by Booth - Greater Melbourne


This map includes Geelong and Phillip Island, as well as areas considered Metropolitan Melbourne. Interesting to note that the Greens don't appear to have won a single booth in Cooper (the old Batman) for the first time in... I think a decade...



2019 Australian Federal Election Two Candidate Preferred Results (Preliminary Counts) by Booth - Hobart and Surrounds


Compare Wilkie's results North and South of the Derwent.




2019 Australian Federal Election Two Candidate Preferred Results (Preliminary Counts) by Booth - Greater Adelaide





2019 Australian Federal Election Two Candidate Preferred Results (Preliminary Counts) by Booth - Greater Perth

[Annatar]

2 party vote now 51.6-48.4, will shift a little more in favour of the Coalition as the vote count continues, the polls that had Labor up 51.5-48.5 with a 3% margin of error are now outside the margin of error. As the vote count continues and the Coalition's 2 party vote rises, more and more polls are falling outside the margin of error

[Annatar]

https://australianelectionstudy.org/wp-content/uploads/The-2019-Australian-Federal-Election-Results-from-the-Australian-Election-Study.pdf

New election study out, a lot of interesting data on how people voted by age and gender.

https://twitter.com/redrabbleroz/status/1203778788376510464/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1203778788376510464&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.tallyroom.com.au%2F39138

48% of men voted Liberal + National vs 43% that voted Labor + Greens.
38% of women voted Liberal + National vs 52% that voted Labor + Greens.

[Intell]

http://www.tallyroom.com.au/38807

Shows you the swings between parties.

[Intell]

Wealthy (old-money) suburb;

Dalkeith

+6.42 Labor

Lib: 79.15%
Lab: 20.85%


Upper-middle Class Suburbia

Mount Claremont

+6.11 Labor

Lib: 67.75%
Lab: 32.25%

Applecross

+1.02 Labor

Lib: 73.76%
Lab: 26.24%


Higher-scale Middle-class Professional areas


Shenton Park

+10.34 Labor

Lib: 52.46%
Lab: 47.5%


Como North
 
+5.87 Labor

Lib: 58.15%
Lab: 41.85%

Brentwood

+1.96 Labor

Lib: 60.61%
Lab: 30.39%


Higher-scale Middle class Suburbia

Riverton

+3.51 Liberal

Lib: 57.71%
Lab: 42.29%

+2.29 Liberal

Balcatta North
Lib: 58.64%
Lab: 41.36%

Madia Vale

+2.68 Lib

Lib: 63.71% Lib
Lab: 36.29% Lab


New Suburbs (affordable housing, new families move there to own a house)

Byford North

+13.39 Lib

Lib: 65.66%
Lab: 34.34%

Butler

+7.87 Lib

Lib: 54.36%
Lab: 45.64%

Ellenbrook West

+5.65% Lib

Lib: 50.88%
Lab: 49.12%

Lower-middle class Surbubs

Parkwood

+1.06 Lib

Lib: 47.35%
Lab: 52.65%

Belmont East

Lib: 44.7%
Lab: 55.3%

Ballujura West

+0.43 Lib

Lib: 46.9%
Lab: 53.1%

Working Class Suburbs  

Armadale

+9.91 Lib

Lib: 40.03%
Lab: 59.97%

Middle Swan

+6.57%

Lib: 44.64%
Lab: 55.36%

Rockingham


Poor

Medina

+6.35 Lib

Lib: 30.47%
Lab: 69.53%

Rockingham Central

+3.8 Lib

Lib: 32.97%
Lab: 67.03%

Upper-middle class (large asian population)

Rossmoyne

+0.38 Lib

Lib: 67.99%
Lab: 32.01%


Higher Scale Middle class surbubs (with asians)

Willeton East

+0.49 Lib

Lib: 55.25%
Lab: 44.75%



Lower-middle class (largely) asian suburb

East Cannington

+1.69 Lib

Lib: 43.76%
Lab: 56.24%

Working Class Asian Suburb

Mirabooka Central

+3.8 Lib

Lib: 34.52%
Lab: 65.48


Does similar trends occur in smaller towns (yes?)- see bunbury

Higher Scale-Middle Class Surbia

Bunbury Central

+2.29 Labor

Lib: 63.7%
Lab: 36.%

Working Class Suburb

Carey Park

+10.96 Lib

Lib: 53.76
Lab: 46.24


Wine Country

Margret River

+1.48 Lab

Lib: 47.35%
Lab: 52.65%

Denmark

+6.07 Lab

Lib: 45.85%
Lab: 54.15%

Coal Country

Collie Central

+8.52 Lib

Lib: 42.09%
Lab: 57.91%

Collie North

+7.26 Lib

Lib: 38.44%
Lab: 61.56%