Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[Walmart_shopper]

What explains the four point swing to HaAvoda?

Liberals coming home after growing weary of Gantz's pandering to the right.

I also think people assume Bibi will win, in which a serious and ideologically firm opposition is needed.

But I think it's an outlier in any case. These would be the reasons, though, if it were legit.

[Oryxslayer]

The other thing is that midgam has been consistently one of the pollsters most favorable to the non-B&W left, like Smith has been more favorable to the right. Midgam 12 found gesher getting in a while back in an outlier poll.

But we are in the last week so any swings have the potential to stick. We will also learn if pollsters got their samples right, unlike 2015.

[urutzizu]

Very Interesting Poll by the Israel Democracy Institute about Voting behaviour by Age. Almost a complete reversal from the US and most of western Europe.



In addition to other quite interesting findings the Poll also found that 66.5% of Israeli jews (and 4% of Arabs lol) found Israels response to Gaza too lenient. So possibility that instead of the "gaza bump" in favor of Likud, Netanyahu might be punished instead.

full Article: https://www.timesofisrael.com/young-israelis-want-netanyahu-older-ones-gantz/

[jaichind]

Very Interesting Poll by the Israel Democracy Institute about Voting behaviour by Age. Almost a complete reversal from the US and most of western Europe.



In addition to other quite interesting findings the Poll also found that 66.5% of Israeli jews (and 4% of Arabs lol) found Israels response to Gaza too lenient. So possibility that instead of the "gaza bump" in favor of Likud, Netanyahu might be punished instead.

full Article: https://www.timesofisrael.com/young-israelis-want-netanyahu-older-ones-gantz/

Different from USA and Western Europe but similar to Japan

Asahi monthly poll show the age gap for Abe Cabinet approval

Overall it is 43/38 for Jan 2019
 

Age 20-29 it is 48/27 for Jan 2019


Age 60-69 it is 33/51 for Jan 2019

 
This pattern has been around for several years now.  The youth back LDP-KP while ages 50-69 tends to lean opposition with middle age and 70+ voters tend to be in the middle

[DC Al Fine]

What are the reasons for Japan's age based voting patterns?

[jaichind]

What are the reasons for Japan's age based voting patterns?

I am not sure it is that relevant for this thread but the short answers are
1) Low unemployment due to low birth rate means youth are fairly satisfied with status quo
2) The older generations tend to have more personal connection to WWII and war guild.  This generation are not connected feel WWII and war guild is ancient history and as a result are more attracted by nationalism or at least patriotism.   

[America Needs R'hllor]

Very Interesting Poll by the Israel Democracy Institute about Voting behaviour by Age. Almost a complete reversal from the US and most of western Europe.

From my experience, on social issues most Israeli youths are very progressive and accepting. Much less homophobic than their parents etc. So it's sad they don't practice it politically, but I'm not surprised, knowing how many of my friends vote for the traditional right-wing (or worse, Zehut, which gives them an option to think they don't hurt their homosexual friends but instead vote for one of the biggest homophobes in the race).

[Walmart_shopper]

Very Interesting Poll by the Israel Democracy Institute about Voting behaviour by Age. Almost a complete reversal from the US and most of western Europe.

From my experience, on social issues most Israeli youths are very progressive and accepting. Much less homophobic than their parents etc. So it's sad they don't practice it politically, but I'm not surprised, knowing how many of my friends vote for the traditional right-wing (or worse, Zehut, which gives them an option to think they don't hurt their homosexual friends but instead vote for one of the biggest homophobes in the race).

And you have to realize that when we talk about "Israeli youth" we are talking about a quickly growing Haredi demographic, too. There was a poll of Israeli college students and it had Gantz winning by a bunch with Meretz and Zehut also doing well.  But most Israeli college students are secular and middle class. When you consider the youth demographic as a whole you have to factor in Haredim is changes everything. But my experience is that even Haredi youth are modernizing pretty quickly, just not quickly enough to be politically liberal. Among secular and even national religious youth there is definitely a pretty stark social liberalism--openness to gays, opposition to the rabbinate, liberalism on women's issues, pluralism, etc. But on security and Arab-Jewish relations in some ways the views of young people are much more regressive and atavistic. Thus the lean to the right.

[DC Al Fine]

Very Interesting Poll by the Israel Democracy Institute about Voting behaviour by Age. Almost a complete reversal from the US and most of western Europe.

From my experience, on social issues most Israeli youths are very progressive and accepting. Much less homophobic than their parents etc. So it's sad they don't practice it politically, but I'm not surprised, knowing how many of my friends vote for the traditional right-wing (or worse, Zehut, which gives them an option to think they don't hurt their homosexual friends but instead vote for one of the biggest homophobes in the race).

And you have to realize that when we talk about "Israeli youth" we are talking about a quickly growing Haredi demographic, too. There was a poll of Israeli college students and it had Gantz winning by a bunch with Meretz and Zehut also doing well.  But most Israeli college students are secular and middle class. When you consider the youth demographic as a whole you have to factor in Haredim is changes everything. But my experience is that even Haredi youth are modernizing pretty quickly, just not quickly enough to be politically liberal. Among secular and even national religious youth there is definitely a pretty stark social liberalism--openness to gays, opposition to the rabbinate, liberalism on women's issues, pluralism, etc. But on security and Arab-Jewish relations in some ways the views of young people are much more regressive and atavistic. Thus the lean to the right.

Agreed. The non-Haredi but still religious Jewish groups seem to be fairly young as well:



I've noticed that outside of the South, North American Evangelicals have sort of set up their own seperate subculture which can reduce contact people outside the sub-culture have with them...

I assume the same effect exists in Israel only moreso? How isolated are the various subcultures (Haredi vs National Religious or other religious Jews, vs Secular vs Arab etc) from each other?

[Walmart_shopper]

Very Interesting Poll by the Israel Democracy Institute about Voting behaviour by Age. Almost a complete reversal from the US and most of western Europe.

From my experience, on social issues most Israeli youths are very progressive and accepting. Much less homophobic than their parents etc. So it's sad they don't practice it politically, but I'm not surprised, knowing how many of my friends vote for the traditional right-wing (or worse, Zehut, which gives them an option to think they don't hurt their homosexual friends but instead vote for one of the biggest homophobes in the race).

And you have to realize that when we talk about "Israeli youth" we are talking about a quickly growing Haredi demographic, too. There was a poll of Israeli college students and it had Gantz winning by a bunch with Meretz and Zehut also doing well.  But most Israeli college students are secular and middle class. When you consider the youth demographic as a whole you have to factor in Haredim is changes everything. But my experience is that even Haredi youth are modernizing pretty quickly, just not quickly enough to be politically liberal. Among secular and even national religious youth there is definitely a pretty stark social liberalism--openness to gays, opposition to the rabbinate, liberalism on women's issues, pluralism, etc. But on security and Arab-Jewish relations in some ways the views of young people are much more regressive and atavistic. Thus the lean to the right.

Agreed. The non-Haredi but still religious Jewish groups seem to be fairly young as well:



I've noticed that outside of the South, North American Evangelicals have sort of set up their own seperate subculture which can reduce contact people outside the sub-culture have with them...

I assume the same effect exists in Israel only moreso? How isolated are the various subcultures (Haredi vs National Religious or other religious Jews, vs Secular vs Arab etc) from each other?

They have historically operated as distinct subcultures. But within the last couple of decades or even just the last several years there has been a huge amount of integration, with more Haredim going to college and national religious integrating in politics and civil society. That has actually led to a huge amount of secularization, by the way, which is why demographic doomsdayism among secular Israelis isn't quite right. The joke is that Haredim women have a greater number of secular kids than secular women, and the number of more modern orthodox who leave religion is likewise significant.

But this is also definitely true of Evangelicalism in the United States, too, where it may seem like their political and social influence is strong but in fact that community is imploding. I think the same would be said of Orthodoxy in Israel. It's also true if Poland and Russia and other places where right wing populism is quite a big thing  The vectors of social change are towards dramatic secularism, but the political vectors are towards a rightist anti-liberalism draped in religious meaning and nomenclature. It's all very superficial, though. If you look just beneath the surface it's easy to that there as in Israel traditional religion is losing power and influence all over the place, but its place in government and its demographics make it look vastly stronger than it really is

[Hnv1]

Very Interesting Poll by the Israel Democracy Institute about Voting behaviour by Age. Almost a complete reversal from the US and most of western Europe.

From my experience, on social issues most Israeli youths are very progressive and accepting. Much less homophobic than their parents etc. So it's sad they don't practice it politically, but I'm not surprised, knowing how many of my friends vote for the traditional right-wing (or worse, Zehut, which gives them an option to think they don't hurt their homosexual friends but instead vote for one of the biggest homophobes in the race).

And you have to realize that when we talk about "Israeli youth" we are talking about a quickly growing Haredi demographic, too. There was a poll of Israeli college students and it had Gantz winning by a bunch with Meretz and Zehut also doing well.  But most Israeli college students are secular and middle class. When you consider the youth demographic as a whole you have to factor in Haredim is changes everything. But my experience is that even Haredi youth are modernizing pretty quickly, just not quickly enough to be politically liberal. Among secular and even national religious youth there is definitely a pretty stark social liberalism--openness to gays, opposition to the rabbinate, liberalism on women's issues, pluralism, etc. But on security and Arab-Jewish relations in some ways the views of young people are much more regressive and atavistic. Thus the lean to the right.

Secular youth is more right wing as well, these are the children of the second intifida and gay issues isn't the issue that breaks Israeli politics from leftto right. I encountered more militant views about palestinians among the younger than the older, they are also significantly more racists.

[Hnv1]

Last polls:

Kan channel 11
Likud 31
Gantz 30
Labour 8
Hadash Ta’al 8
URW 6
New right 6
UTJ 6
Zehut 6
Meretz 5
Kulano 5
Shas 4
Balad 4
Rest 0

Channel 12
Gantz 30
Likud 26
Labour 10
UTJ 7
Hadash Ta’al 7
New right 6
URW 5
YB 5
Kulano 5
Zehut 5
Shas 5
Meretz 5
Balad 4

In both cases the right bloc is bigger 64-56 (though Zehut is in between)
Though the channel 12 poll gives Gantz some chance

[Oryxslayer]

Last polls:

Kan channel 11
Likud 31
Gantz 30
Labour 8
Hadash Ta’al 8
URW 6
New right 6
UTJ 6
Zehut 6
Meretz 5
Kulano 5
Shas 4
Balad 4
Rest 0

Channel 12
Gantz 30
Likud 26
Labour 10
UTJ 7
Hadash Ta’al 7
New right 6
URW 5
YB 5
Kulano 5
Zehut 5
Shas 5
Meretz 5
Balad 4

In both cases the right bloc is bigger 64-56 (though Zehut is in between)
Though the channel 12 poll gives Gantz some chance

BTW, this is a swing to the right of +1 seat from last Kan polls, and is either a swing to the left or no change depending on the channel 12 pollster (midgam same/panel swing +2 left). I have been of the opinion that these swings matter more then the numbers, because the sample groups could be off again(in any number of directions), and pollsters have consistent house effects.

[DavidB.]

So Hatzel endorsed Feiglin with this insane video, lmao

[Hnv1]

So Hatzel endorsed Feiglin with this insane video, lmao

Jesus wept. What a time to be alive

[Walmart_shopper]

So Hatzel endorsed Feiglin with this insane video, lmao

I guess it was only a matter of time before Israel got its own Nothing Matters election.

[America Needs R'hllor]

So Hatzel endorsed Feiglin with this insane video, lmao

Zehut is really giving the URWP a run for its money, huh?

[Walmart_shopper]

So there were a couple new polls yesterday and a couple more this morning, which should be just about it since a polling embargo goes into effect after today. Finally there seems to be a pretty broad consensus about the election (or maybe it's just herding). Blue and White lead Likud by 3-5 mandates and the right wing (including Zehut's five-ish mandates) have 63-65 mandates for a very narrow majority.

I'll give my prediction of the results, but it's hard to do so given the dynamics of the campaign so far. Here are a few things to watch for.

1. Do Arabs boycott the elections? One Arab party internal showed Arab turnout at only 50 percent (Jewish turnout is often closer to 70 percent). Another public poll recently showed it to be a little higher but less than 2015. If the Arab parties together can net 13 mandates, that will make it very hard for the right wing to get to 61 mandates. Many Arabs have also expressed openness to voting for Gantz in reaction to the racist nation-state law that was passed. Those who do so won't make way huge difference if only half of eligible Arab voters turn out.

2. The threshold. I've always thought that a right wing majority depends on Kulanu, Bayit Yehudi, Liberman, and Gantz all passing the threshold. And I think that Bibi will have an easier  time if Raam Balaad stays under. A normal polling error either way and it's totally possible that the right wing (or left wing) loses 4-8 seats, which given the current state of the ideological blocs would pretty much be the election.

3. Last minute trickery. Some think that by canceling their rotation agreement Gantz and Lapid could gain an extra few seats from the right. When Herzog and Livni cancelled their rotation in 2015 it actually did gain their party a few seats and a lead over the Likud. In response Bibi pulled his infamous election day stunt of opposing a two state solution and warning about Arabs "flocking to the polls." That also worked and siphoned enough votes away from Bennet to keep the Likud in first. Anything can happen these days and anything probably will happen.

4. Is Zehut the real deal? They're nuts, but this country is also nuts. The question is what that means for the party and the parties it is taking votes from (which is generally agreed to be smaller right wing parties). Does Zehut pick up last minute undecided voters (and a terrifyingly large number this year)  and outperform polling?  ? Do they take a mandate or two away from Meretz or typical Aleh Yarok voters? Or do national religious voters and conservatives come home at the last minute and vote for Likud and the United Right (or Bennet)? And, last but not least, what happens when coalition talks begin, especially if Gantz wins by 3 or 4 mandates and is selected to begin coalition talks?

So here are my predictions:

Blue and White: 34
Likud: 29
Labor: 9
Hadash-Taal: 7
UTJ: 7
Zehut: 6
United Right: 5
New Right: 5
Meretz: 5
Liberman: 5
Ram Balaad: 4
Shas: 4

Right wing + Zehut: 61
Center-left + Arab parties: 59

My hunch is that we'll get a national unity government of some sort led by Benny Gantz, but I won't bother predicting coalition talks at this point.

[Boobs]

What happens if Gesher passes? On face it hurts the right but who knows...

[Horus]

Very Interesting Poll by the Israel Democracy Institute about Voting behaviour by Age. Almost a complete reversal from the US and most of western Europe.



In addition to other quite interesting findings the Poll also found that 66.5% of Israeli jews (and 4% of Arabs lol) found Israels response to Gaza too lenient. So possibility that instead of the "gaza bump" in favor of Likud, Netanyahu might be punished instead.

full Article: https://www.timesofisrael.com/young-israelis-want-netanyahu-older-ones-gantz/

Just more proof that Israel is regressing at an alarming rate.

[DavidB.]

Haven't been following this as closely as I intended to due to developments in my own country, but I think it will all depend on the extent to which the Likud base is sufficiently fired up to turn out in the first place. They clearly were last time, and it won them the election. Difficult to say as an outsider whether they are right now. But it is clear the Mandelblit stuff hasn't affected Netanyahu nearly as negatively as the Gantz bloc had hoped and perhaps expected. Meanwhile, I get the impression that Gantz's momentum has come to a standstill due to his response to the Iran phone hacking scandal.

In my own circle of friends I see a lot of people who intended to vote URWP (for Otzma) but will now vote for UTJ following the High Court decision regarding Ben-Ari. Would be interesting to see if they are actually representative for the Hardal subsector.

I'm guessing Likud edges out if Bibi manages to drum up support among his own ranks. Which he probably will, because we know what he's like. He probably still has some cards up his sleeve. If he doesn't, I could see B&W come first. But I think the right (including Zehut) will receive at least 62 seats, and I expect a right-wing government without Gantz to be formed.

The only right-wing party that I think really has a 50% chance of ending up below the threshold is YB. The others seem fairly safe except for Shas: it seems as if enough people are coming home for the New Right and Zehut has a lot of momentum (could see them reach a hilariously high number of seats). But Shas is a bit of a wildcard in terms of support levels. They haven't been below the threshold in any recent polls, but are too close for comfort, and a last-minute Likud stunt could inadvertently hurt them. I could see them not making it either. In case Shas and YB both don't make it in, Bibi has a problem. But I don't think the probability of this happening is too high.

[Walmart_shopper]

It appears that Netanyahu is using the last few days of the campaign to do what we wondered whether he'd do, which is try to siphon right wing votes away from other right wing parties to build a Likud big enough to top Blue White. Amit Segal, who is by no means at all a Netanyahu opponent or leftist, believes that Bibi is in panic mode and is willing to take the risk to build a big Likud even though it could gut the right wing bloc. It's also possible that Netanyahu simply wants a broad centrist government for any number of reasons (attack on Hezbollah or Iran, the Trump peace plan) to get some polotically dicey things done before he's sent to jail.

I don't know what to make of it, honestly. I tend to think that Bibi just likes to freak right wing voters out (in 2013 he was hyperventilating about turnout in Tel Aviv, which ended up not very high, and in 2015 he was moaning about Arabs flocking to the polls, which they weren't). At the same time, though, my hunch is that Likud is in worse shape than the polls show and if there's a surprise it will be how well Gantz and the left does. So who knows what Netanyahu is thinking.

[Oryxslayer]

It appears that Netanyahu is using the last few days of the campaign to do what we wondered whether he'd do, which is try to siphon right wing votes away from other right wing parties to build a Likud big enough to top Blue White. Amit Segal, who is by no means at all a Netanyahu opponent or leftist, believes that Bibi is in panic mode and is willing to take the risk to build a big Likud even though it could gut the right wing bloc. It's also possible that Netanyahu simply wants a broad centrist government for any number of reasons (attack on Hezbollah or Iran, the Trump peace plan) to get some polotically dicey things done before he's sent to jail.

I don't know what to make of it, honestly. I tend to think that Bibi just likes to freak right wing voters out (in 2013 he was hyperventilating about turnout in Tel Aviv, which ended up not very high, and in 2015 he was moaning about Arabs flocking to the polls, which they weren't). At the same time, though, my hunch is that Likud is in worse shape than the polls show and if there's a surprise it will be how well Gantz and the left does. So who knows what Netanyahu is thinking.

Well, the current polls show the right wing coalition, despite having a majority, depends upon Zehut and Kulanu whose loyalty is...uncertain. Kulanu might have problems with the Kahonists, and Zehut is Zehut. The play for Bibi might be to get one of the three below the threshold while keeping the seats on the right, it makes government formation easier. in this case, easier doesn't just mean leverage, it means preventing potential walkouts and an inability to rebuild the coalition.

That is of course depends on the hunch being correct, which it might not be. But glancing over the list of polls, it does feel like herding is occurring.

[The Mikado]

In my own circle of friends I see a lot of people who intended to vote URWP (for Otzma) but will now vote for UTJ following the High Court decision regarding Ben-Ari. Would be interesting to see if they are actually representative for the Hardal subsector.

Get new friends.

[Continential]

I listened to an NPR interview about Arab votes in the election and I heard that like 50% of the Arab/Druze population is boycotting the election due to being unsatisfied with Gantz.