Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[America Needs R'hllor]

The Supreme Court is holding a hearing right now on whether to, as the state is suggesting, Michael Ben Ari should be disqualified from running for Knesset. It's hard tobread the tea leaves on this stuff, but it actually sounds as though the Court may rule against Ben Ari.

they either rule against Ben Ari and Kassif or rule that they're all eligible.

I actually think there's a real possibility, and a strong legal argument, that Zahalka and Kassif are allowed but Ben Ari is not. But that would wind the right wing up so much that it may end up costing the center left the election, so I'm not sure what I'm hoping cones of this.

If barring nazis from running is what ruffles the feathers of our "swing voters" to vote against the left then we're truly lost.

@Hnv: What do you think are the odds? I've been hearing more about Ben Ari than about Cassif.

[Hnv1]

The Supreme Court is holding a hearing right now on whether to, as the state is suggesting, Michael Ben Ari should be disqualified from running for Knesset. It's hard tobread the tea leaves on this stuff, but it actually sounds as though the Court may rule against Ben Ari.

they either rule against Ben Ari and Kassif or rule that they're all eligible.

I actually think there's a real possibility, and a strong legal argument, that Zahalka and Kassif are allowed but Ben Ari is not. But that would wind the right wing up so much that it may end up costing the center left the election, so I'm not sure what I'm hoping cones of this.

If barring nazis from running is what ruffles the feathers of our "swing voters" to vote against the left then we're truly lost.

@Hnv: What do you think are the odds? I've been hearing more about Ben Ari than about Cassif.

If you asked me a month ago I would have said slim, as the SC tried its best in the past to keep everyone in. But seeing the manuscripts from the past two days...the spirit of the court definitely changed.

They're seriously contemplating it, but I think if they were to disqualify anyone they would have to do it symmetrically from left to right.

But we are witnessing the change of our constitutional law in front of us.

[Walmart_shopper]

The Supreme Court is holding a hearing right now on whether to, as the state is suggesting, Michael Ben Ari should be disqualified from running for Knesset. It's hard tobread the tea leaves on this stuff, but it actually sounds as though the Court may rule against Ben Ari.

they either rule against Ben Ari and Kassif or rule that they're all eligible.

I actually think there's a real possibility, and a strong legal argument, that Zahalka and Kassif are allowed but Ben Ari is not. But that would wind the right wing up so much that it may end up costing the center left the election, so I'm not sure what I'm hoping cones of this.

If barring nazis from running is what ruffles the feathers of our "swing voters" to vote against the left then we're truly lost.

@Hnv: What do you think are the odds? I've been hearing more about Ben Ari than about Cassif.

I'm not talking about swing voters. I'm talking about right wing turnout and maybe marginal Likud voters, like arsim in the periphery who may really get cranked up by revanchist Jewish racism.

[Oryxslayer]

New Magar Mochot Poll, Parentheses mean change since last time polled.

B&W 33 ()
Likud 26 ()
Meretz 8 ()
Labour 7 (-1)
URWP 7 (-1)
UTJ 7 (-1)
Hadaash-taal 6 (-3)
New Right 6 (-2)
Shaas 5 (+1)
Zehut 5 (+1)
YB 5 (+5)
Kulanu 5 (+1)

Ways to interpret results:

Left+Arabs 54 /Right 66
6 Arabs / 48 Left / 10 Centre  / 56 Pure Right

Technically with these results a Grand Coalition barely has a majority. More minors means a harder life for B&W...Maybe Bibi as well if he needs to juggle more parties then presently.

[America Needs R'hllor]

New Magar Mochot Poll, Parentheses mean change since last time polled.

B&W 33 ()
Likud 26 ()
Meretz 8 ()
Labour 7 (-1)
URWP 7 (-1)
UTJ 7 (-1)
Hadaash-taal 6 (-3)
New Right 6 (-2)
Shaas 5 (+1)
Zehut 5 (+1)
YB 5 (+5)
Kulanu 5 (+1)

Ways to interpret results:

Left+Arabs 54 /Right 66
6 Arabs / 48 Left / 10 Centre  / 56 Pure Right

Technically with these results a Grand Coalition barely has a majority. More minors means a harder life for B&W...Maybe Bibi as well if he needs to juggle more parties then presently.

We live in a society

[Hnv1]

New Magar Mochot Poll, Parentheses mean change since last time polled.

B&W 33 ()
Likud 26 ()
Meretz 8 ()
Labour 7 (-1)
URWP 7 (-1)
UTJ 7 (-1)
Hadaash-taal 6 (-3)
New Right 6 (-2)
Shaas 5 (+1)
Zehut 5 (+1)
YB 5 (+5)
Kulanu 5 (+1)

Ways to interpret results:

Left+Arabs 54 /Right 66
6 Arabs / 48 Left / 10 Centre  / 56 Pure Right

Technically with these results a Grand Coalition barely has a majority. More minors means a harder life for B&W...Maybe Bibi as well if he needs to juggle more parties then presently.

Those results don’t really stack up for me, and it all hinges on Raam-Balad below the threshold. Anyhow Maagar is not a good pollster.

[Walmart_shopper]

New Magar Mochot Poll, Parentheses mean change since last time polled.

B&W 33 ()
Likud 26 ()
Meretz 8 ()
Labour 7 (-1)
URWP 7 (-1)
UTJ 7 (-1)
Hadaash-taal 6 (-3)
New Right 6 (-2)
Shaas 5 (+1)
Zehut 5 (+1)
YB 5 (+5)
Kulanu 5 (+1)

Ways to interpret results:

Left+Arabs 54 /Right 66
6 Arabs / 48 Left / 10 Centre  / 56 Pure Right

Technically with these results a Grand Coalition barely has a majority. More minors means a harder life for B&W...Maybe Bibi as well if he needs to juggle more parties then presently.

Those results don’t really stack up for me, and it all hinges on Raam-Balad below the threshold. Anyhow Maagar is not a good pollster.

Unless the right wing voters totally splinters, I don't see Zehut, Lieberman, and Kahlon passing the threshold. They all feed upon various fringes of the Likud electorate and I just don't think Likud is that week.

But it's definitely true that the right needs two of those three to get a bare majority. I don't think it's that hard to get two, but I'm not sure that a majority of one or two mandates propped up by Zehut, Kahanists, and/or Kahlon is very stable. We'll be back at elections within a year without national unity.

[Umengus]

Makor poll

Likud 32
BW 32
Labor 10
Hadash-taal: 9
UTJ 7
URL 7
HH 7
Shas 6
Meretz 6
Zehut 4


under threshold

YB 2,9
Kulanu 2,7
Raam Balad 2,6
Gesher 1,7

Midgam

BW 31
Likud 28
Labor 10
UTJ 7
Hadash-Taal 7
URL 7
Shas 6
Kulanu 4
Raam balad 4
YB 4
Meretz 4
HH 4
Zehut 4

under threshold

Gesher 2,3

[Hnv1]

Well I’m utterly surprised, SC disqualified Ben Ari and him alone

[Walmart_shopper]

Well I’m utterly surprised, SC disqualified Ben Ari and him alone

I warned you. The dude is literally banned from entering the United States. It's not inconceivable that he would also be banned from entering the Knesset.

I wonder what, if any, electoral effect this ends up having. This pretty much guarantees that no Otzmah Yehudit candidate will get in given the fact that Bayit Yehudi is only polling at around 7 mandates right now. Also, Raam-Baalad seems increasingly important to any blocking bloc against a Netanyahu government, so the green light to them is also pretty elecyorally significant insofar as they can actually get across the threshold, which is by no means guaranteed.

I saw one national religious site describe it as a "blow" to the right wing union. But I could also see it galvanizing right wingers around the party as a way of "owning the libs" on the Court.

[Vosem]

Well, if Ben-Ari is disqualified, everybody below him on the URWP list moves up a spot, so Ben-Gvir moves from eighth to seventh, which at present numbers is quite reasonable. Knesset Jeremy's last average has:

32 Blue & White
29 Likud
9 Labor
7 Hadash-Ta'al
7 United Torah Judaism
7 United Right List
6 Meretz
6 New Right
5 Shas
4 Zehut
4 Kulanu
4 Yisrael Beiteinu

On these numbers Otzma's representation in the Knesset stays at one -- it just moves from Ben-Ari to Ben-Gvir.

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

Kan poll

Likud 31
Blue&White 30
Labor 9
Hadash-Ta'al 8
UTJ 6
Shas 6
New Right 6
URP 6
Meretz 6
Zehut 4
YB 4
UAL-Balad 4

[Hnv1]

Well I’m utterly surprised, SC disqualified Ben Ari and him alone

I warned you. The dude is literally banned from entering the United States. It's not inconceivable that he would also be banned from entering the Knesset.

I wonder what, if any, electoral effect this ends up having. This pretty much guarantees that no Otzmah Yehudit candidate will get in given the fact that Bayit Yehudi is only polling at around 7 mandates right now. Also, Raam-Baalad seems increasingly important to any blocking bloc against a Netanyahu government, so the green light to them is also pretty elecyorally significant insofar as they can actually get across the threshold, which is by no means guaranteed.

I saw one national religious site describe it as a "blow" to the right wing union. But I could also see it galvanizing right wingers around the party as a way of "owning the libs" on the Court.

Ben Gvir could get in.

Anyway I have a feeling New Right will be battling with threshold soon

[Umengus]

what's happen with Gantz ? the bibi indict. was the game changer and now, Bibi is first.

[Oryxslayer]

what's happen with Gantz ? the bibi indict. was the game changer and now, Bibi is first.

Centralization of right wing voters. We predicted something like this might happen when B&W formed, but I'm surprised it hasn't caused more casualties in the minors yet. There have been two movements right now it appears: Likud -> Kulanu/Zehut if you don't like Bibi's scandals, Right -> Likud to protect against B&W. With this centralization, and Ari off the list, I would't be surprised if the first minor under is URWP.

But the other thing is that there is a lot of flux right now, what with who was banned and not banned. It could benefit the left, or the right depending on the narrative.

[Umengus]

what's happen with Gantz ? the bibi indict. was the game changer and now, Bibi is first.

Centralization of right wing voters. We predicted something like this might happen when B&W formed, but I'm surprised it hasn't caused more casualties in the minors yet. There have been two movements right now it appears: Likud -> Kulanu/Zehut if you don't like Bibi's scandals, Right -> Likud to protect against B&W. With this centralization, and Ari off the list, I would't be surprised if the first minor under is URWP.

But the other thing is that there is a lot of flux right now, what with who was banned and not banned. It could benefit the left, or the right depending on the narrative.

But why the BW result is down ?

[Hnv1]

what's happen with Gantz ? the bibi indict. was the game changer and now, Bibi is first.

Centralization of right wing voters. We predicted something like this might happen when B&W formed, but I'm surprised it hasn't caused more casualties in the minors yet. There have been two movements right now it appears: Likud -> Kulanu/Zehut if you don't like Bibi's scandals, Right -> Likud to protect against B&W. With this centralization, and Ari off the list, I would't be surprised if the first minor under is URWP.

But the other thing is that there is a lot of flux right now, what with who was banned and not banned. It could benefit the left, or the right depending on the narrative.

But why the BW result is down ?

highly sensitive with more parties above the threshold

[Umengus]

Panels conducted a poll of 998 people with a 3.4% margin of error that was published by Walla on March 19 2019.

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]

32 [29] Likud (Netanyahu)
 29 [11] Blue & White (Gantz, Lapid, Yaalon & Ashkenazi)
 09 [05] Hadash-Taal (Odeh & Tibi)
 08 [18] Labor (Gabbai)
 07 [05] United Right List (Peretz, Smotrich & Ben Gvir)
 06 [06] United Torah Judaism (Litzman)
 06 [05] Meretz (Zandberg)
 06 [03] Hayamin Hehadash (Bennett & Shaked)
 05 [05] Yisrael Beitenu (Liberman)
 04 [10] Kulanu (Kahlon)
 04 [07] Shas (Deri)
 04 [–-] Zehut (Feiglin)

Under 3.25% electoral threshold:

2.9% [01] Gesher (Orly Levy)
 2.5% [08] Raam-Balad (Abbas)

Under 1%

00 [–-] Yachad (Eli Yishai)
 00 [–-] Magen (Gal Hirsch)
 00 [01] Tzomet (Oren Hazan) and others

68 [66] Current Right-Religious Coalition+Y.B.
 52 [54] Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition-Y.B

Additional Questions:

Who is more suited to be Prime Minister?

46% Netanyahu, 28% Gantz, 18% Neither, 8% Don’t know

Likud voters: 95% Netanyahu, 3% Neither, 1% Don’t know, 1% Gantz
Blue & White voters: 86% Gantz, 6% Neither, 4% Don’t know, 4% Netanyahu

How has Gantz’s telephone-gate influenced your vote?

73% Didn’t influence, 23% Negatively influenced, 4% Positively influenced

Likud voters: 58% Didn’t influence, 37% Negatively influenced, 4% Positively influenced
Blue & White voters: 89% Didn’t influence, 8% Positively influenced, 3% Negatively influenced

Should Netanyahu be investigated in regards to case 3000?

47% Yes, 35% No, 19% No opinion

[bigic]

https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1107747463631388673

[danny]

https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1107747463631388673

What a ridiculous tweet by Barak Ravid, he writes in English about an ad in Hebrew but only gives part of the information and leaves out the meaning. The point of the ad is to mock the people that call her fascist by going through the things that she's really trying to promote and claiming that they are really democratic.

[Walmart_shopper]

what's happen with Gantz ? the bibi indict. was the game changer and now, Bibi is first.

Centralization of right wing voters. We predicted something like this might happen when B&W formed, but I'm surprised it hasn't caused more casualties in the minors yet. There have been two movements right now it appears: Likud -> Kulanu/Zehut if you don't like Bibi's scandals, Right -> Likud to protect against B&W. With this centralization, and Ari off the list, I would't be surprised if the first minor under is URWP.

But the other thing is that there is a lot of flux right now, what with who was banned and not banned. It could benefit the left, or the right depending on the narrative.

But why the BW result is down ?

I'm sure that running an aimless campaign predicated on an ideological and moral agnosticism that fears rather than challenges and inspires the public is probably part of it.

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1107747463631388673

What a ridiculous tweet by Barak Ravid, he writes in English about an ad in Hebrew but only gives part of the information and leaves out the meaning. The point of the ad is to mock the people that call her fascist by going through the things that she's really trying to promote and claiming that they are really democratic.

Oh, what a smart campaign.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway, we got polls after the court cases. The swings are interesting, but it seems that URWP is not affected by the incident, but Balad-Ra'am is now consistently getting into the Knesset.

Swings seatwise from last time. HaMidgam 13/Midgam 12/Smith/Maagar Mochot.

B&W: 0, +1, -1, -3
Likud:  +1, -1, -2, 0

Labor: +2, 0, +1, +2
Meretz:  -1, 0, 0, -2
Hadaash-Ta'al: 0, +1, -1, -1
Balad-Ra'am: -1, 0, 0, +4(entry)

URWP: 0, -2, 0, 0
UTJ:  +1, 0, +1, -1
Shas: 0, -1, +1, -1
New Right: 0, +2, 0, -1
YB: -4(Out), 0, 0, -1

Zehut: +1, 0, +4(entry), +1
Kulanu: +1, 0, +1, -1
Gesher: 0(out), 0(out), -4(out), +4(entry)

56/58/55/58 Pure Left+Arabs, 54/54/56/52 Pure Right + 10/8/9/10 Center(Kulanu+Zehut)
 

[Walmart_shopper]

So last night Bibi surprised everyone and did something he almost never does, and went on Channel 12, which is the Israeli version of CNN, for a personal interview. He imploded. He refused to rule out support for a French style immunity law that would basically shield him from prosecution in the indictments that have been leveled against him. He looked absolutely lost in front 9f the camera.

The rumor is that the private polling is actually really bad for the Likud right now and that he is doing what he usually does when he's in trouble, which is panic. Obviously there's no way of knowing if that rumor is true. The police are apparently considering opening yet another criminal investigation against Bibi nto possible insider trading related to a controversial submarine deal with Germany. So his legal troubles, if not his political ones, are worsening.

It's just dd that Bibi would expose himself like he did last night. His campaigns are usually so disciplined and targeted, which is why they work. He doesn't do debates or hostile interviews. And yet last night he opened himself up to a pretty tough interview and was just demolished. You have to wonder if there's something going on in the electorate that isn't totally obvious.

Ayelet Shaked confirmed what we all wondered about, which is that the Likud is indeed trying to siphon votes away from other right wing parties even at the expense of the right wing bloc. Shaked's New Right is struggling to stay above the threshold, so this is significant.

[Umengus]

So last night Bibi surprised everyone and did something he almost never does, and went on Channel 12, which is the Israeli version of CNN, for a personal interview. He imploded. He refused to rule out support for a French style immunity law that would basically shield him from prosecution in the indictments that have been leveled against him. He looked absolutely lost in front 9f the camera.

The rumor is that the private polling is actually really bad for the Likud right now and that he is doing what he usually does when he's in trouble, which is panic. Obviously there's no way of knowing if that rumor is true.

from my experience, private polls are not better than public ones.