Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[DavidB.]

Kahlon now uses the slogan "sane right". Not sure if he's explicitly placed Kulanu on the right before.

https://twitter.com/EylonALevy/status/1098626269632180224

[Walmart_shopper]

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Nope. But mainly because it looks like a front for pro-Israel American Evangelicals. A true Christian party could actually succeed with a platform of social cohesion, integration, and religious freedom--like a dovish Yisrael Beitenu, basically. Ayman Odeh has actually done a lot of work framing issues in a way that resonates with Arab Christian voters, and I think that's part of why he's been successful as an Arab political leader.

In any case, this weird pluralistic version of the Likud, while quaint, will not succeed.

[Walmart_shopper]

Kahlon now uses the slogan "sane right". Not sure if he's explicitly placed Kulanu on the right before.

I mean, if he was going to try to posture again as some centrist white knight he probably should have resisted the Pavlovian urge to follow Bibi wherever he's gone these last four years.

But that's Kahlon's problem now. "Sane right" voters are stuck between two blocs, one sane and one right, and everyone, including Bibi, who hitched his ride to the Kahanist clown car, knows that that's what's at stake in this election.

[danny]

Kahlon now uses the slogan "sane right". Not sure if he's explicitly placed Kulanu on the right before.

They have also said that they will support Bibi over Gantz for PM.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Kahlon now uses the slogan "sane right". Not sure if he's explicitly placed Kulanu on the right before.

https://twitter.com/EylonALevy/status/1098626269632180224

Yeah that's new. Surprised me a bit because he never really used the right/left words.

[DavidB.]

Kahlon now uses the slogan "sane right". Not sure if he's explicitly placed Kulanu on the right before.

I mean, if he was going to try to posture again as some centrist white knight he probably should have resisted the Pavlovian urge to follow Bibi wherever he's gone these last four years.

But that's Kahlon's problem now. "Sane right" voters are stuck between two blocs, one sane and one right, and everyone, including Bibi, who hitched his ride to the Kahanist clown car, knows that that's what's at stake in this election.

We've got the Individual Politics board for this.

[Walmart_shopper]

Apparently Ale Yarok is not running this year. That actually could be significant because they are usually one of the more successful parties to never cross the threshold like.  There are two or three mandates there that will probably go to Meretz/Gantz/too stoned to bother voting.

Also, Eli Yishai's Yahad party is not joining the Kahanist Alliance, which is interesting given the fact that those are literally his voters (except for a few disaffected Shas voters who miss him as party head). That's another 3 percent possibility lost for the right wing, assuming that he doesn't pass the threshold.

[DavidB.]

Also, Eli Yishai's Yahad party is not joining the Kahanist Alliance, which is interesting given the fact that those are literally his voters (except for a few disaffected Shas voters who miss him as party head). That's another 3 percent possibility lost for the right wing, assuming that he doesn't pass the threshold.

Most Yachad 2015 voters were actually drawn to that party because of Otzma and their people, not because of Yishai. I strongly doubt Yishai even makes it to 1% without them. The biggest vote-waster on the right will be Feiglin, who may take 2-3%.

[Walmart_shopper]

First poll after the mergers by Channel 13:

Blue and White: 36
Likud: 26
Hadash-Taal: 10
Kahanists: 8
UTJ: 7
Shas: 6
Labor: 5
New Right: 5
Yisrael Beitenu: 5
Kulanu: 4
Meretz: 4
Balad-Raam: 4

Three thoughts about this:

1. Gantz would get the first shot at forming a government if he clears Likud by 10 mandates, even though the right technically has 61 seats here. Period. And, frankly, it's hard to see even Kahlon backing an indicted Bibi after he gets walloped like this.

2. Here Arabs have 14 seats, and have virtually no meaningful representation in government.  The Haredim have 13 and essentually stand to hold the government hostage. I actually think that Gantz using Arab parties to become PM may be a politically smart thing to do especially if it shrugs off the Haredim and Kahanists.

3. Everyone assumed that math alone gave Bibi a decent edge in the election. If other polls confirm the accuracy of this one, it's hard to see this as anything other than 50/50 at this point. The indictment expected by the end of February will probably determine whether this sits on knife's edge through March or whether Bibi begins to consider handing the party off before Election Day to prevent the left from getting power.

[Oryxslayer]

Yeah, thats a shock poll all right...

[DC Al Fine]

Kahanism? What's that?

[DavidB.]

Likud, BY, UTJ, Shas, NR, YB and Kulanu are at 61.

B&W, Hadash-Ta'al, Labour, Meretz are at 55.

This poll seems to be extraordinarily bad for Likud (it might of course be true but I am cautious) and yet Bibi's path to a majority is still a lot easier. I also remember 2015, when ZU was leading Likud in the polls for a long time. I'd say it's 70/30, not 50/50. Which are still better odds for the left than anyone expected in October, of course.

I'd also love to see Gantz courting the Arabs before the election thinking that would be "politically smart".

[DavidB.]

Kahanism? What's that?

The ideology of the late Rabbi Meir Kahane, currently represented politically by Otzma Yehudit, who are part of the joint Jewish Home-National Union-Otzma list. This doesn't mean this entire alliance consists of Kahanists, so Walmartdude has been allowing his feefees to affect his post a little too much.

[Walmart_shopper]

And another from Channel 12:

Blue and white: 36
Likud: 30
Labor: 8
UTJ: 7
New Right: 6
Hadash/Balad: 6
Taal: 6
Shas: 5
Yisrael Beitenu: 4
Meretz: 4
Kulanu: 4
Jewish Home: 4

The right bloc has 60 seats, with 12 on the threshold. The left/Arab opposition has 60, with 4 on the cusp of dropping below the threshold.

[Walmart_shopper]

One more from Kan:

Blue and white: 35
Likud: 32
Hadash/Taal: 11
Labor: 8
New Right: 7
Jewish Home: 6
Shas: 6
UTJ: 6
YB: 5
Meretz: 4

Balad, Gesher, and Kulanu all miss the threshold.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Kahanism? What's that?

Judge an ideology by its actions, I say.

Let me just point out a few of the things Meir Kahana did:

* Supported a theocracy controlled by religious Jewish laws
* Supported deportations for all Arab Israelis
* Submitted a law to take Israeli citizenship from all non-Jews
* Submitted a law to deport all non-Jews from Jerusalem
* Submitted a law making marriage or sexual relations between Jews and non-Jews illegal
* Submitted a law making separate beaches for Jews and non Jews
* Submitted a law that was supposed to forcefully divorce mixed couples
* Submitted a law that would let non-Jews live in Israel only if they accepted forced labour and taxes
* Instructed his men to conduct terrorist attacks against Soviet and Arabic diplomats, as well as American targets
*Submitted innocent Arabic citizens letters making threats if they do not accept the terms for living in Israel I've mentioned above
*Mass-murdering terrorist Baruch Goldstein was his pupil

And that's just a few choice things. Former MK Michael Eitan from Likud correctly called the laws Kahane submitted "Nuremberg Laws", and I'll leave it to your judgement, but I believe there is no escape from calling this man what he is. Now, Otzma is made up of his pupils and its leaders praise him as a spiritual father and consider themselves his heirs.

During Kahane's time as an MK, his speeches in the Knesset were boycotted by all other parties and he spoke before an empty chamber. His party was later deemed illegal for undermining the basic fundamental of Israel.

Today, Kahanism is represented by four major figures:
Michael Ben Ari, former MK known for many controversial actions and former Kahana student. Number 5 on the JH list.
Itamar Ben Gvir, attorney known for threatening Rabin by saying "we got your car, we'll get you next". Has a picture of mass murderer and terrorist Baruch Goldstein in his home which he refused to remove despite a JH Rabbi making it his term for a union, and called Goldstein a tsadik. Number 8 on the JH list.
Baruch Marzel, another crazy Kahanist known for violent actions that got him banned from running previously.
Bentsi Gopstein, leader of the Lehava movement, known to terrorize mixed couples and young Arabs, called the LGBTQ community terrorists.

Make your judgement. I call them nazis.

[America Needs R'hllor]

One more from Kan:

Blue and white: 35
Likud: 32
Hadash/Taal: 11
Labor: 8
New Right: 7
Kahanists: 6
Shas: 6
UTJ: 6
YB: 5
Meretz: 4

Balad, Gesher, and Kulanu all miss the threshold.

This poll makes the most sense to me.

[Comrade Funk]

What are the chances on a debate involving the major candidates?

[DavidB.]

Don't understand why Kulanu and YB didn't make a joint list. They're probably toast separately.

[_]

Blue and White is such a trash name, they should've gone with Israeli Future

[Hnv1]

What are the chances on a debate involving the major candidates?

Slim. Bibi is the better orator but he also knows the image matters and Ganz has a good 10’’ on him

[DavidB.]

Blue and White is such a trash name, they should've gone with Israeli Future

There is Resilience also has a nice ring to it

[bigic]

Blue and White is such a trash name, they should've gone with Israeli Future

Blue and white are Israeli flag colours so maybe they thought it's "patriotic" or something.

[The Mikado]

One more from Kan:

Blue and white: 35
Likud: 32
Hadash/Taal: 11
Labor: 8
New Right: 7
Kahanists: 6
Shas: 6
UTJ: 6
YB: 5
Meretz: 4

Balad, Gesher, and Kulanu all miss the threshold.

This poll makes the most sense to me.

Balad not making it in would be a pretty huge humiliation for them. Taal going from being an obscure backwater of the Arab parties to being the only one (in alliance with Hadash).

[DC Al Fine]

Blue and White is such a trash name, they should've gone with Israeli Future

Blue and white are Israeli flag colours so maybe they thought it's "patriotic" or something.

If I ever become GodEmperor, I'm passing a law forbidding lame names and forcing parties to choose a name that at least somewhat relates to what they're about.

Israeli Labor Party? Great. United Torah Judaism, sure. "Vigour", "Consolidation", or freaking "Blue White"? Hell no.