2020 AZ Senate Megathread: Kelly's Race to Lose

[Oryxslayer]

Identifying good candidates is quite literally the only thing Schumer is good at.

This is sincere, right? Who has he drafted previously?

He has been the brains behind most of the party's A+ recruits since he led the DSCC in 2006. From what I've heard, he essentially recruited Bredesen single-handedly (which made Bredesen's ridiculous vow to oppose him as leader even more absurd). He should be permanent DSCC leader imo, somebody tougher and more skilled at legislating should be leader.

Yeah, Bredesen was such a star recruit he lost by 10 points.

But he still forced Republicans to spend money in a normally safe state. Money that could have gone to West Virginia or Montana.

And it (plus TX, AZ, NV) allowed dems to play offense in a year where they should have numerically been playing pure defense. Its remarkable considering the general math of the map that the top battleground map in September had 4 Pub seats and 6 Dem seats.

And he lost by only ten when the normal dem would lose by 30.

And he had coattails that allowed downticket dems to pick up some gerrymandered pub seats in the Memphis/Nashville/Knoxville regions.

Even though Bresden lost, there is a lot to be gained from having a good recruit in race rather then a sacrificial lamb.

[Flyersfan232]

i dont see az as the type of state that would send two dems to the senates.

[Holmes]

i dont see az as the type of state that would send two dems to the senates.

If there even exists voters that think "we already have a Democrat/Republican in the Senate, we shouldn't send another", their numbers are so small that it wouldn't make a difference.

[OneJ]

i dont see az as the type of state that would send two dems to the senates.

Florida didn’t strike me as that type of state either, but look at it now...

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1093921659063537672

[Zaybay]

Interesting. I really thought he was going to run. It looks like the field has been cleared for Gallego to run.

[_]

Will not run "As a Democrat"

Greattttt

[brucejoel99]

Will not run "As a Democrat"

Greattttt

It's ok: later in the same interview, he clarified that he isn't running at all.

[2016]

Interesting. I really thought he was going to run. It looks like the field has been cleared for Gallego to run.

It's either Ruben Gallego or Astronaut & Husband of former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords Mark Kelly.

GE: Gallego or Kelly against McSally.

There will not be a Field cleared for Gallego. There is no intention from Kelly to abandon his potential Senate Bid.

[_]

Will not run "As a Democrat"

Greattttt

It's ok: later in the same interview, he clarified that he isn't running at all.

Phew, okay.  Thank you for clarifying that.

[Zaybay]

Interesting. I really thought he was going to run. It looks like the field has been cleared for Gallego to run.

It's either Ruben Gallego or Astronaut & Husband of former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords Mark Kelly.

GE: Gallego or Kelly against McSally.

There will not be a Field cleared for Gallego. There is no intention from Kelly to abandon his potential Senate Bid.

Democratic Majority Leader Schumer, along with the DCCC, were the ones to recruit him, and are currently backing him. With such support, I doubt Kelly even runs, or gets close.

Of course, he can, but he would be the underdog in such a race.

also, good to see you back 2016!

[Politician]

Bye-bye, baby!

[MAINEiac4434]

I am vindicated

[Zaybay]

React to this McSally vs Gallego map.

If Gallego is winning both Maricopa and Yuma county, he's winning the state.

I mean, not even Sinema, with her 3 point win, was able to win Yuma county.

[Oryxslayer]

The democratic party and in Yuma is basically 100% Hispanic. Hispanic turnout dropped in 2018 compared to 2016, so sinema didn't have as high a ceiling there when compared to a potential 2020 race.

[Politician]

React to this McSally vs Gallego map.

YES!

[Progressive Pessimist]

React to this McSally vs Gallego map.

YES!

[Zaybay]

React to this McSally vs Gallego map.

If Gallego is winning both Maricopa and Yuma county, he's winning the state.

I mean, not even Sinema, with her 3 point win, was able to win Yuma county.

To be fair Trump only won Yuma County by 1% after Bush, Romney and McCain won that county by double digits. Yuma County has over a 60% Hispanic population as well.

True, but still, this is a winning map for Ds, probably by more than 5 points.

[Badger]

why did republicans choose mcsally who just lost election to defend seat in 2020 and 2022? looks like they really want to lose arizona for good.

To be fair, there isnt really that much of a bench for the Rs in the state, surprisingly. Many of the house Reps arent really viable in a general election, and the strongest choice, Ducey, is unable to make the jump due to the fact that the Dems won the SoS, who would replace him.

McSally was one of their best picks, and even then, its pretty bad.

trump won that state easily, and mcsally lost from lgbt(!) candidate. that means she's very weak and totally unacceptable to independent voters. i think arpaio is best choice.

Arizona elected a gaybo to the Senate?!?

I'm as shocked as you MGOP.

But mostly at your increasingly low level of posting.

[Badger]

Identifying good candidates is quite literally the only thing Schumer is good at.

That in the whole beating trumpcare thing, but whatever.

[Badger]

React to this McSally vs Gallego map.

If Gallego is winning both Maricopa and Yuma county, he's winning the state.

I mean, not even Sinema, with her 3 point win, was able to win Yuma county.

To be fair Trump only won Yuma County by 1% after Bush, Romney and McCain won that county by double digits. Yuma County has over a 60% Hispanic population as well.

True, but still, this is a winning map for Ds, probably by more than 5 points.

To the maps Creator, what is the estimated Statewide Marching In this scenario? in your mind that is.

[SnowLabrador]

I don't think it will be easy at all for Democrats to win this seat. Trump is favored to win the state again, and Kyrsten Sinema only won by a 2.4% margin while winning 12% of Republicans. Lean R to start.

[Zaybay]

I don't think it will be easy at all for Democrats to win this seat. Trump is favored to win the state again, and Kyrsten Sinema only won by a 2.4% margin while winning 12% of Republicans. Lean R to start.

I dont get why people repeat that stat as a reason no other D can win the state. Winning ~10% of the other party is rather normal in electoral politics(Trump won 10% of Democrats, Clinton 12% of Republicans). This is mostly because people dont change their party registration often, even if their political values change. This is especially obvious in fast trending states(WV/KY/LA are still D majority registration, the opposite is true for IA even back in 2008/VA/ and CO). Sinema winning 12% of AZ Republicans is really not that special.

[S019]

This race is a Tossup. Kyrsten Sinema won by 2 in a wave year for Democrats. Ultimately this race comes down to the national environment. If Trump is losing Arizona by 2 or more, McSally is probably in very big trouble

[Don Vito Corleone]

Kelly's in.

https://kvoa.com/news/2019/02/12/mark-kelly-announces-run-for-u-s-senate/