2020 AZ Senate Megathread: Kelly's Race to Lose

[Continential]

I wonder if Grant Woods has a boring voice

[Antonio the Sixth]

Great to hear that Gallego is likely to jump in. He's charismatic, a veteran, and Latino, an excellent triple combo when running against McSally. Of course, Atlas posters are gonna be pushed away by his more Progressive attitudes(even though there is no proof whatsoever that we need a Conservative Democrat for this race), but by most other parameters, Gallego is one of the top candidates we can field.

Yeah, Gallego is by far the best candidate.

[henster]

Kelly is better since he's basically a blank slate, never ran before, no voting record what so ever. I can't think of anything at the top of my head what he would be attacked over beside the standard boiler plate stuff from Republicans. After Garcia who was also a veteran and it didn't really matter there is reason to give pause to Gallego for more moderate candidates. Woods is a nonstarter for me though.

[ON Progressive]

Atlas underestimates how simple the median voter is. They don’t care about things like how moderate someone is—they care about whether someone is good looking, whether they can shoot a gun or drink a beer with you. Since Gallego is a young Marine, gettable voters are likely going to care a lot more about that than how far left he is. Jason Kander and Jared Golden were able to be perceived as much more moderate than they actually are simply by being telegenic veterans

This. Median voters don't care about actual policy. The median voter not only doesn't pay enough attention to politics to do so, their policy priorities tend to be a total hodgepodge that doesn't fit in well with either party.

I also want to ask Atlas one question: If Arizona is only willing to vote for Sensible Moderate Blue Dog Democrats , explain Katie Hobbs/Kathy Hoffman winning statewide running as generic Democrats.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

But, he could easily pull a Simena and become/present himself as more moderate in the run up to the election.

Being a moderate hero doesn't help you win elections any more.

[Zaybay]

Kelly is better since he's basically a blank slate, never ran before, no voting record what so ever. I can't think of anything at the top of my head what he would be attacked over beside the standard boiler plate stuff from Republicans. After Garcia who was also a veteran and it didn't really matter there is reason to give pause to Gallego for more moderate candidates. Woods is a nonstarter for me though.

I dont think you understand how important Gallego being a veteran is. It mostly has to do with his likely opponent(unless she is defeated in a primary challenge), McSally. McSally campaigned almost solely on being a veteran, and got most of her hits contrasting Sinema and her activism to her military record(Tutu, protesting Iraq while I fought there, literally every campaign video she put out, etc.). With Gallego facing her, she cannot use her military record as a contrast, as Gallego can retaliate with his own.

Normally, veteran status adds a modest, but small amount to a candidate's percentage and appeal, but facing off against McSally, its a deadly weapon.

[brucejoel99]

But, he could easily pull a Simena and become/present himself as more moderate in the run up to the election.

Being a moderate hero doesn't help you win elections any more.

*cough* Sinema *cough*

[Zaybay]

But, he could easily pull a Simena and become/present himself as more moderate in the run up to the election.

Being a moderate hero doesn't help you win elections any more.

*cough* Sinema *cough*

*cough* Sinema *cough* only outperformed *cough* the state legistlature results *cough cough*, which are a rather good indicator of DvsR performance *cough* by 2-4 points *cough*.
*ACHOO*
Sorry there, got a cold last weekend.

[Devout Centrist]

I understand why most of the posters here agree with Gallego. He is, in their eyes, the most viable option, and does represent the ever more progressive direction that the Democratic Party seems to be headed upon. At this rate, twenty years from now, to be a Democrat you will have to be staunchly pro-choice, in favor of universal healthcare and of a universal basic income, and staunchly pro-immigration, with no room for any sort of deviation or accommodation, or otherwise. And yes, the reverse seems to be coming true for the Republican Party as well. The ever widening gulf between the two parties continues to alarm me.

What a valid, useless take

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

*cough* Sinema *cough* only outpreformed *cough* the rest of the ticket *cough cough*, by 2-3 points *cough*.
*ACHOO*
Sorry there, got a cold last weekend.

*cough* Ducey won by 14 points *cough* and the GOP won the Attorney Gneral's race by five *cough* and the Treasure's race by 9 *cough* while Sineme won by 3 points *cough* She outperformed the rest of the ticket significantly *cough*
Sorry I think something is going around.

[Zaybay]

*cough* Sinema *cough* only outpreformed *cough* the rest of the ticket *cough cough*, by 2-3 points *cough*.
*ACHOO*
Sorry there, got a cold last weekend.

*cough* Ducey won by 14 points *cough* and the GOP won the Attorney Gneral's race by five *cough* and the Treasure's race by 9 *cough* while Sineme won by 3 points *cough* She outperformed the rest of the ticket significantly *cough*
Sorry I think something is going around.

Sorry, I meant the state legislature results(a good marker for the state's vote without personalities to siphon votes), not the rest of the ticket. Ive issued a correction.

TBH, I have no idea why the percentages are so random, and what would lead to Democrat Hobbs winning the SoS by 0.5%, and while the R AG wins by 5.5%, and so on.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

[snip]
Sorry, I meant the state legislature results(a good marker for the state's vote without personalities to siphon votes), not the rest of the ticket. Ive issued a correction.

TBH, I have no idea why the percentages are so random, and what would lead to Democrat Hobbs winning the SoS by 0.5%, and while the R AG wins by 5.5%, and so on.

Yeah its all about finding what generic D v. R is. The problem with using state legislative results in general is that many are often unopposed. Arizona elects 2 per district which I feel probably exacerbates this problem.

I would think the best method would be the lowest profile statewide race with both parties but to be honest I have no idea which one that would be, as you have correctly pointed out the margins in the state-wide races are all over the place

[Antonio the Sixth]

*cough* Sinema *cough* only outpreformed *cough* the rest of the ticket *cough cough*, by 2-3 points *cough*.
*ACHOO*
Sorry there, got a cold last weekend.

*cough* Ducey won by 14 points *cough* and the GOP won the Attorney Gneral's race by five *cough* and the Treasure's race by 9 *cough* while Sineme won by 3 points *cough* She outperformed the rest of the ticket significantly *cough*
Sorry I think something is going around.

And Jay Gonzalez lost by 33 points, while Elizabeth Warren won by 24 despite being to his left.

These comparisons are idiotic.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Out of curiosity, is this the quickest ascension to senior senator in history? Since McCain/Kyl’s seat was vacant at the time Sinema took the oath, she immediately became the senior senator. If that were so, it would, by extension, be the first time anyone served in the Senate without being the junior senator for even a second (all of this excluding when the Senate was first constituted as a bidy in 1789, of course).

[pppolitics]

What are the chances that Trump loses AZ and McSally wins and vice versa?

[LabourJersey]

What are the chances that Trump loses AZ and McSally wins and vice versa?

I'm guessing it would be low, given the strong correlation (not exact but strong) between how Democrats did in WI, PA and NH in 2016 compared to Clinton's performance in those states.

They'll be aberrations but I think voting for Senators in presidential elections is pretty much the same as voting for POTUS in those election years

[socaldem]

Atlas underestimates how simple the median voter is. They don’t care about things like how moderate someone is—they care about whether someone is good looking, whether they can shoot a gun or drink a beer with you. Since Gallego is a young Marine, gettable voters are likely going to care a lot more about that than how far left he is. Jason Kander and Jared Golden were able to be perceived as much more moderate than they actually are simply by being telegenic veterans

This. Median voters don't care about actual policy. The median voter not only doesn't pay enough attention to politics to do so, their policy priorities tend to be a total hodgepodge that doesn't fit in well with either party.

I also want to ask Atlas one question: If Arizona is only willing to vote for Sensible Moderate Blue Dog Democrats , explain Katie Hobbs/Kathy Hoffman winning statewide running as generic Democrats.

These blue avatars are making sense.

I'm a hard pass on Grant "snore" Woods.

I am intrigued by both Ruben Gallego and Mark Kelly.

Ruben Gallego is an up-and-comer. He is a progressive but seems earnest and non-controversial and has a good personal profile. Plus representation matters and the Dem. ticket would benefit from a boost in Latinx representation.

Mark Kelly has a lot of residual goodwill as the husband of Gabby Giffords. Had they not tried to assassinate Giffords, she would likely be in the Senate already (having defeated Flake in '12) and also a major contender for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2020. I am very moved by the Kelly/Giffords advocacy and think that Kelly's bipartisan outsider profile could be an advantage.

I would be inclined to encourage a robust primary to determine which is the more capable, energetic candidate. As long as they don't get nasty with each other... but it seems Kelly may be looking for a "cleared field" which I'm not sure is either possible or advisable.

[socaldem]

Out of curiosity, is this the quickest ascension to senior senator in history? Since McCain/Kyl’s seat was vacant at the time Sinema took the oath, she immediately became the senior senator. If that were so, it would, by extension, be the first time anyone served in the Senate without being the junior senator for even a second (all of this excluding when the Senate was first constituted as a bidy in 1789, of course).

That does seem to beat out Feinstein who was junior senator from November-January 1992.

[brucejoel99]

Out of curiosity, is this the quickest ascension to senior senator in history? Since McCain/Kyl’s seat was vacant at the time Sinema took the oath, she immediately became the senior senator. If that were so, it would, by extension, be the first time anyone served in the Senate without being the junior senator for even a second (all of this excluding when the Senate was first constituted as a bidy in 1789, of course).

That does seem to beat out Feinstein who was junior senator from November-January 1992.

And Elizabeth Warren as well, who was only MA's junior senator from January 3 to February 1, 2013.

[QAnonKelly]

Who primaries McSally? That's part of why she lost this go around too. Sinema literally got a year headstart on her.

[RogueBeaver]

Schumer has talked with Gallego and Woods, Kelly is also interested. Gallego will decide in the next couple of weeks.

[Gass3268]

Schumer has talked with Gallego and Woods, Kelly is also interested. Gallego will decide in the next couple of weeks.

Democratic bench here is really good.

[Zaybay]

Seems that Stanton isnt going for it.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Schumer has talked with Gallego and Woods, Kelly is also interested. Gallego will decide in the next couple of weeks.

Apparently Gallego is Schumer’s first choice here, interestingly enough. 

[Landslide Lyndon]

Why people are so excited for Kelly? He has never ran for anything, so it's totally unknown if he is actually good at all this campaigning thing.