Election 2018 Open Thread v2 - Mia, Mimi, Gil, and T.J.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Nah, we lost NC 9th fair and square, congrats to rep-elect Mark Harris.

Based on what? That you don't want to get your hopes up? That you want to appear moderate and reasonable to both sides?

Because the deficit is too large to make up especially with something like Bladen County, and McCready conceded, and the Bladen county certified their results. I trust the election systems and processes in this country, including those places where it is run by republicans. There is hardly any fraud, they do their jobs with integrity.

If you trust the election systems and processes in this country, then you should probably trust the fact that the NCSBE decided not to certify it so far and is investigating to make sure they get it right, one way or the other.

So you are contradicting yourself.

What it really is is you just don't want to get your hopes up.

[Tintrlvr]

That was all or nearly all of the remaining ballots in Kings County (they had 1,577 left to report as of yesterday, which may include some disputed ballots or unverified provisionals that won't get counted), so CA-21 is definitely over. Cox wins. He may expand his margin to over 1,000 votes once Fresno and Kern make their final reports. Tulare has been trickling in (no one mentioned on this thread yesterday that Valadao gained 2 net votes on 46 new votes reported from Tulare) but can't have more than a handful of ballots remaining in this district given the tiny drips they've been releasing.

[Florida Man for Crime]

That was all or nearly all of the remaining ballots in Kings County (they had 1,577 left to report as of yesterday, which may include some disputed ballots or unverified provisionals that won't get counted), so CA-21 is definitely over. Cox wins. He may expand his margin to over 1,000 votes once Fresno and Kern make their final reports. Tulare has been trickling in (no one mentioned on this thread yesterday that Valadao gained 2 net votes on 46 new votes reported from Tulare) but can't have more than a handful of ballots remaining in this district given the tiny drips they've been releasing.

Unbeatable Titan TJ Cox is born.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Nah, we lost NC 9th fair and square, congrats to rep-elect Mark Harris.

Based on what? That you don't want to get your hopes up? That you want to appear moderate and reasonable to both sides?

Because the deficit is too large to make up especially with something like Bladen County, and McCready conceded, and the Bladen county certified their results. I trust the election systems and processes in this country, including those places where it is run by republicans. There is hardly any fraud, they do their jobs with integrity.

If you trust the election systems and processes in this country, then you should probably trust the fact that the NCSBE decided not to certify it so far and is investigating to make sure they get it right, one way or the other.

So you are contradicting yourself.

What it really is is you just don't want to get your hopes up.

I trust Bladen County and their system, which is the election system in question.

[Antonio the Sixth]

That was all or nearly all of the remaining ballots in Kings County (they had 1,577 left to report as of yesterday, which may include some disputed ballots or unverified provisionals that won't get counted), so CA-21 is definitely over. Cox wins. He may expand his margin to over 1,000 votes once Fresno and Kern make their final reports. Tulare has been trickling in (no one mentioned on this thread yesterday that Valadao gained 2 net votes on 46 new votes reported from Tulare) but can't have more than a handful of ballots remaining in this district given the tiny drips they've been releasing.

Unbeatable Titan TJ Cox is born.

Yeah, this is over. Congrats to TJ Cox on an amazing victory. There was a real enthusiasm on the ground to his campaign and for once muh on-the-ground feeling was right and the polls were wrong. It doesn't happen often, but sometimes it does.

[GeorgiaModerate]

House
CNN: 233-201 (1 Undecided/NM-2)
NYTimes: 233-200 (2 Undecided/NY-22 & NY-27)
ABC: 234-201
CBS: 234-201
TheGreenPapers: 234-201

All of them should be R-1 because of CA-21.

I got a gut feel that Valadao might pull this out.

We'll probably know by tonight but Nate Cohn, Nate Silver and Harry Enten all seem to think Cox is favored.

Nate, Nate, and Harry vs. 2016.  I know which side I'd bet on.

Cohn, Enten and Silver ARE Clowns.

Please report to the makeup tent to be fitted for your red nose and shoes.

[ag]

Nah, we lost NC 9th fair and square, congrats to rep-elect Mark Harris.

Based on what? That you don't want to get your hopes up? That you want to appear moderate and reasonable to both sides?

Because the deficit is too large to make up especially with something like Bladen County, and McCready conceded, and the Bladen county certified their results. I trust the election systems and processes in this country, including those places where it is run by republicans. There is hardly any fraud, they do their jobs with integrity.

If you trust the election systems and processes in this country, then you should probably trust the fact that the NCSBE decided not to certify it so far and is investigating to make sure they get it right, one way or the other.

So you are contradicting yourself.

What it really is is you just don't want to get your hopes up.

I trust Bladen County and their system, which is the election system in question.

NCSBE is as much part of the system.

[DrScholl]

Nah, we lost NC 9th fair and square, congrats to rep-elect Mark Harris.

Based on what? That you don't want to get your hopes up? That you want to appear moderate and reasonable to both sides?

Because the deficit is too large to make up especially with something like Bladen County, and McCready conceded, and the Bladen county certified their results. I trust the election systems and processes in this country, including those places where it is run by republicans. There is hardly any fraud, they do their jobs with integrity.

If you trust the election systems and processes in this country, then you should probably trust the fact that the NCSBE decided not to certify it so far and is investigating to make sure they get it right, one way or the other.

So you are contradicting yourself.

What it really is is you just don't want to get your hopes up.

I trust Bladen County and their system, which is the election system in question.

Do you even know enough about Bladen County to trust them? It seems like you are just making a statement with nothing to back it up.

[Bidenworth2020]

Nah, we lost NC 9th fair and square, congrats to rep-elect Mark Harris.

Based on what? That you don't want to get your hopes up? That you want to appear moderate and reasonable to both sides?

Because the deficit is too large to make up especially with something like Bladen County, and McCready conceded, and the Bladen county certified their results. I trust the election systems and processes in this country, including those places where it is run by republicans. There is hardly any fraud, they do their jobs with integrity.

If you trust the election systems and processes in this country, then you should probably trust the fact that the NCSBE decided not to certify it so far and is investigating to make sure they get it right, one way or the other.

So you are contradicting yourself.

What it really is is you just don't want to get your hopes up.

I trust Bladen County and their system, which is the election system in question.

Do you even know enough about Bladen County to trust them? It seems like you are just making a statement with nothing to back it up.

tbh, bladen cast like 6,000 votes in NC-09

[Oryxslayer]

It is possible to believe both:

-Republicans should/will/did win NC09
-Results need analyzed for error before verification.

[Tartarus Sauce]

It is possible to believe both:

-Republicans should/will/did win NC09
-Results need analyzed for error before verification.

That's the point though, Bagel's position is nonsensical and specifically done to avoid getting his hopes up. We've all seen how far he goes in stridently writing off highly winnable opportunities simply because he doesn't want to suffer the possibility of disappointment. Now he apparently doesn't even want a commission tasked with overseeing elections to do its job because he'd rather not see another race happen. He's more comfortable with the potential that voter fraud made the difference than he is with the idea of finding evidence of voter fraud and redoing the race.

I'd be more than willing to accept that we lost this one in a squeaker if nothing comes of this and could win the seat in 2020 if its a good year, Mark Harris is a toxic individual that could struggle to hold the seat down compared to a less caustic Republican, but saying that the NCSBE should just certify the results right now "just because" after they voted 9-0 not to do that is ridiculous.

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1067853928228827137

Even from Kings TJ got a net gain. This race is over.

I seemed to recall from the 2016 DEM Primary in Cali that Kings County was one of the last to fully report, but the last bucket was overwhelmingly Younger (Latino) and heavily Bernie Sanders....

Kings County is perhaps a classic example of the fast changing composition of the electorate within the Central Valley, as well as changed voting habits among younger voters, and additionally speaks to the integrity of the California Voting system (Which can be frustrating for us Atlas Election Junkies), that takes weeks to carefully validate every signature and the integrity of every ballot, despite huge chunks of votes getting tossed into the Provisional Ballot stage for various reasons.

[NOVA Green]

Nah, we lost NC 9th fair and square, congrats to rep-elect Mark Harris.

Based on what? That you don't want to get your hopes up? That you want to appear moderate and reasonable to both sides?

Because the deficit is too large to make up especially with something like Bladen County, and McCready conceded, and the Bladen county certified their results. I trust the election systems and processes in this country, including those places where it is run by republicans. There is hardly any fraud, they do their jobs with integrity.

Well, no.  According to Politico, Harris won the Bladen portion of NC-09 by 17% with 9363 total votes in the county, or about 1600 votes.  Harris's overall margin is 905.

does anyone have th enumbers of this vote in 2016?

Cross-Posted precinct numbers from the 2016 GOV race to the thread that is covering this more fully.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=307977.msg6561081#msg6561081

[justfollowingtheelections]

So the final results are:

53-47 for the Republicans in the Senate

235-199* for the Democrats in the House

* The results were not certified in NC-9, and we don't know yet what will happen in that race.

I wouldn't really call this a blue wave.  A wave would have helped win some red states/districts, especially in the Senate.  I think this was more of a blue power play.  Turn out was abnormally high for a midterm, and Democrats won almost all races that are usually considered toss-ups.  Republicans did win back some red states in the Senate, but what the elections showed is that if people show up, Democrats will win in most places.  There are more people that will vote Democratic than Republican, and the situation keeps getting worse for Republicans.  They will either have to change (unlikely since their base has become very extreme) or they will become perennial losers who will only be able to win the Senate (until of course Salt Lake City, or Kansas City, KS become the new Denver, Las Vegas, Portland etc., in other words until the main urban area in the rural states, becomes so big that Democrats start winning state-wide elections).  The only reason we're not headed towards a civil war is because unlike 1860, all states have both liberals and conservatives and the parties are not regional the way they were back then.

[Virginiá]

So the final results are:

53-47 for the Republicans in the Senate

235-199* for the Democrats in the House

* The results were not certified in NC-9, and we don't know yet what will happen in that race.

I wouldn't really call this a blue wave.  A wave would have helped win some red states/districts, especially in the Senate.  I think this was more of a blue power play.  Turn out was abnormally high for a midterm, and Democrats won almost all races that are usually considered toss-ups.  Republicans did win back some red states in the Senate, but what the elections showed is that if people show up, Democrats will win in most places.  There are more people that will vote Democratic than Republican, and the situation keeps getting worse for Republicans.  They will either have to change (unlikely since their base has become very extreme) or they will become perennial losers who will only be able to win the Senate (until of course Salt Lake City, or Kansas City, KS become the new Denver, Las Vegas, Portland etc., in other words until the main urban area in the rural states, becomes so big that Democrats start winning state-wide elections).  The only reason we're not headed towards a civil war is because unlike 1860, all states have both liberals and conservatives and the parties are not regional the way they were back then.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1067864025541865477

It absolutely was a wave. You don't get >= D+8.2 on the House PV, net 7 govs offices and get D+40 in the House and have it not be a wave. That they lost Senate seats is not helpful by any means but doesn't nullify everything else, given how we elect Senators.

[justfollowingtheelections]

So the final results are:

53-47 for the Republicans in the Senate

235-199* for the Democrats in the House

* The results were not certified in NC-9, and we don't know yet what will happen in that race.

I wouldn't really call this a blue wave.  A wave would have helped win some red states/districts, especially in the Senate.  I think this was more of a blue power play.  Turn out was abnormally high for a midterm, and Democrats won almost all races that are usually considered toss-ups.  Republicans did win back some red states in the Senate, but what the elections showed is that if people show up, Democrats will win in most places.  There are more people that will vote Democratic than Republican, and the situation keeps getting worse for Republicans.  They will either have to change (unlikely since their base has become very extreme) or they will become perennial losers who will only be able to win the Senate (until of course Salt Lake City, or Kansas City, KS become the new Denver, Las Vegas, Portland etc., in other words until the main urban area in the rural states, becomes so big that Democrats start winning state-wide elections).  The only reason we're not headed towards a civil war is because unlike 1860, all states have both liberals and conservatives and the parties are not regional the way they were back then.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1067864025541865477

It absolutely was a wave. You don't get >= D+8.2 on the House PV, net 7 govs offices and get D+40 in the House and have it not be a wave. That they lost Senate seats is not helpful by any means but doesn't nullify everything else, given how we elect Senators.

Did you even read my post or only the first sentence?

[Virginiá]

Did you even read my post or only the first sentence?

But we did win Arizona, which is still a red state technically (I suppose we'll see in 2020 how it goes though). We were just really over-exposed in the Senate. Afaik 2010 operated in a similar fashion, with gains for the out party declining substantially the higher the PVI for Democrats. If the country gets more polarized, it makes sense that the ability to win in more deeply Republican areas is reduced. But Democrats still won a decent number of Trump districts.

I read your post. I just think your labeling is based on expectations that perhaps aren't fair to the way the political system has worked for years now.

[lfromnj]

why is it impressive to win Arizona?
2/3 seats that are open won by the opposing president by less than 10 points flip.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Did you even read my post or only the first sentence?

But we did win Arizona, which is still a red state technically. We were just really over-exposed in the Senate. Afaik 2010 operated in a similar fashion, with gains for the out party declining substantially the higher the PVI for Democrats. If the country gets more polarized, it makes sense that the ability to win in more deeply Republican areas is reduced. But Democrats still won a decent number of Trump districts.

I read your post. I just think your labeling is based on expectations that perhaps aren't fair to the way the political system has worked for years now.

I'm not so sure that is the case anymore, especially when turn out is high.  My point in case you missed it, is that this was more than a wave, which by nature is temporary (it comes and goes).  I believe this election showed us what we should be expecting in elections from now on.

[Virginiá]

why is it impressive to win Arizona?
2/3 seats that are open won by the opposing president by less than 10 points flip.

I didn't comment on whether it was or wasn't. I was just stating that it did happen in response to his post mentioning a lack of wins in red districts/states.

I'm not so sure that is the case anymore, especially when turn out is high.  My point in case you missed it, is that this was more than a wave, which by nature is temporary (it comes and goes).  I believe this election showed us what we should be expecting in elections from now on.

Right, fair enough. But I would add that I don't think Democrats can look forward to perpetual D+8 House PV years, otherwise Republicans are basically being dealt out of the game indefinitely. The House map wouldn't look as impressive without that huge shift in support.

I do agree that there is a more fundamental shift ongoing, and personally I think it's more beneficial to Democrats in the House.

[Mr. Smith]

So the final results are:

53-47 for the Republicans in the Senate

235-199* for the Democrats in the House

* The results were not certified in NC-9, and we don't know yet what will happen in that race.

I wouldn't really call this a blue wave.  A wave would have helped win some red states/districts, especially in the Senate.  I think this was more of a blue power play.  Turn out was abnormally high for a midterm, and Democrats won almost all races that are usually considered toss-ups.  Republicans did win back some red states in the Senate, but what the elections showed is that if people show up, Democrats will win in most places.  There are more people that will vote Democratic than Republican, and the situation keeps getting worse for Republicans.  They will either have to change (unlikely since their base has become very extreme) or they will become perennial losers who will only be able to win the Senate (until of course Salt Lake City, or Kansas City, KS become the new Denver, Las Vegas, Portland etc., in other words until the main urban area in the rural states, becomes so big that Democrats start winning state-wide elections).  The only reason we're not headed towards a civil war is because unlike 1860, all states have both liberals and conservatives and the parties are not regional the way they were back then.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1067864025541865477

It absolutely was a wave. You don't get >= D+8.2 on the House PV, net 7 govs offices and get D+40 in the House and have it not be a wave. That they lost Senate seats is not helpful by any means but doesn't nullify everything else, given how we elect Senators.

Except that most of those 7 governor's offices were just places where the GOP overextended in solid blue turf anyway

The only flipped state of true consequence to be a wave was Kansas. The only traditional swingers to flip were Wisconsin and Nevada [the latter which is increasingly becoming a reverse Missouri], both of which should've been doable anyway. And in the end, Florida was still lost by less than a point. Ohio...too bad, Iowa...hahaha nope.

It was a wave in The House, but everything else? Not a chance. The Senate was reasonable damage control, and

[lfromnj]

So the final results are:

53-47 for the Republicans in the Senate

235-199* for the Democrats in the House

* The results were not certified in NC-9, and we don't know yet what will happen in that race.

I wouldn't really call this a blue wave.  A wave would have helped win some red states/districts, especially in the Senate.  I think this was more of a blue power play.  Turn out was abnormally high for a midterm, and Democrats won almost all races that are usually considered toss-ups.  Republicans did win back some red states in the Senate, but what the elections showed is that if people show up, Democrats will win in most places.  There are more people that will vote Democratic than Republican, and the situation keeps getting worse for Republicans.  They will either have to change (unlikely since their base has become very extreme) or they will become perennial losers who will only be able to win the Senate (until of course Salt Lake City, or Kansas City, KS become the new Denver, Las Vegas, Portland etc., in other words until the main urban area in the rural states, becomes so big that Democrats start winning state-wide elections).  The only reason we're not headed towards a civil war is because unlike 1860, all states have both liberals and conservatives and the parties are not regional the way they were back then.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1067864025541865477

It absolutely was a wave. You don't get >= D+8.2 on the House PV, net 7 govs offices and get D+40 in the House and have it not be a wave. That they lost Senate seats is not helpful by any means but doesn't nullify everything else, given how we elect Senators.

Except that most of those 7 governor's offices were just places where the GOP overextended in solid blue turf anyway

The only flipped state of true consequence to be a wave was Kansas. The only traditional swingers to flip were Wisconsin and Nevada [the latter which is increasingly becoming a reverse Missouri], both of which should've been doable anyway. And in the end, Florida was still lost by less than a point. Ohio...too bad, Iowa...hahaha nope.

It was a wave in The House, but everything else? Not a chance. The Senate was reasonable damage control, and

yeah poeple keeping SAYING +7 governor but the only real shine there was kansas. The others were just normal midterm flips that should have happened.
Dems failed in FL,Oh,GA, etc.

[Calthrina950]

So the final results are:

53-47 for the Republicans in the Senate

235-199* for the Democrats in the House

* The results were not certified in NC-9, and we don't know yet what will happen in that race.

I wouldn't really call this a blue wave.  A wave would have helped win some red states/districts, especially in the Senate.  I think this was more of a blue power play.  Turn out was abnormally high for a midterm, and Democrats won almost all races that are usually considered toss-ups.  Republicans did win back some red states in the Senate, but what the elections showed is that if people show up, Democrats will win in most places.  There are more people that will vote Democratic than Republican, and the situation keeps getting worse for Republicans.  They will either have to change (unlikely since their base has become very extreme) or they will become perennial losers who will only be able to win the Senate (until of course Salt Lake City, or Kansas City, KS become the new Denver, Las Vegas, Portland etc., in other words until the main urban area in the rural states, becomes so big that Democrats start winning state-wide elections).  The only reason we're not headed towards a civil war is because unlike 1860, all states have both liberals and conservatives and the parties are not regional the way they were back then.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1067864025541865477

It absolutely was a wave. You don't get >= D+8.2 on the House PV, net 7 govs offices and get D+40 in the House and have it not be a wave. That they lost Senate seats is not helpful by any means but doesn't nullify everything else, given how we elect Senators.

Except that most of those 7 governor's offices were just places where the GOP overextended in solid blue turf anyway

The only flipped state of true consequence to be a wave was Kansas. The only traditional swingers to flip were Wisconsin and Nevada [the latter which is increasingly becoming a reverse Missouri], both of which should've been doable anyway. And in the end, Florida was still lost by less than a point. Ohio...too bad, Iowa...hahaha nope.

It was a wave in The House, but everything else? Not a chance. The Senate was reasonable damage control, and

yeah poeple keeping SAYING +7 governor but the only real shine there was kansas. The others were just normal midterm flips that should have happened.
Dems failed in FL,Oh,GA, etc.

Exactly. The Democrats did not do as well this year as they did in 2006. They lost seats in the Senate, and their performance in gubernatorial and statewide elections was not as good as it was 12 years ago. It cannot be forgotten that Trump's base did turn out, thereby mitigating the extent of the losses which they might have otherwise suffered. And polarization, more then anything else, has become a significant factor.

[lfromnj]

However the house seat gains are very sustainable until the next wave. Trump activating his base at the end had that effect that saved Mike bost but cost Randy Hultgren the election.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

So the final results are:

53-47 for the Republicans in the Senate

235-199* for the Democrats in the House

* The results were not certified in NC-9, and we don't know yet what will happen in that race.

I wouldn't really call this a blue wave.  A wave would have helped win some red states/districts, especially in the Senate.  I think this was more of a blue power play.  Turn out was abnormally high for a midterm, and Democrats won almost all races that are usually considered toss-ups.  Republicans did win back some red states in the Senate, but what the elections showed is that if people show up, Democrats will win in most places.  There are more people that will vote Democratic than Republican, and the situation keeps getting worse for Republicans.  They will either have to change (unlikely since their base has become very extreme) or they will become perennial losers who will only be able to win the Senate (until of course Salt Lake City, or Kansas City, KS become the new Denver, Las Vegas, Portland etc., in other words until the main urban area in the rural states, becomes so big that Democrats start winning state-wide elections).  The only reason we're not headed towards a civil war is because unlike 1860, all states have both liberals and conservatives and the parties are not regional the way they were back then.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1067864025541865477

It absolutely was a wave. You don't get >= D+8.2 on the House PV, net 7 govs offices and get D+40 in the House and have it not be a wave. That they lost Senate seats is not helpful by any means but doesn't nullify everything else, given how we elect Senators.

Except that most of those 7 governor's offices were just places where the GOP overextended in solid blue turf anyway

The only flipped state of true consequence to be a wave was Kansas. The only traditional swingers to flip were Wisconsin and Nevada [the latter which is increasingly becoming a reverse Missouri], both of which should've been doable anyway. And in the end, Florida was still lost by less than a point. Ohio...too bad, Iowa...hahaha nope.

It was a wave in The House, but everything else? Not a chance. The Senate was reasonable damage control, and

yeah poeple keeping SAYING +7 governor but the only real shine there was kansas. The others were just normal midterm flips that should have happened.
Dems failed in FL,Oh,GA, etc.

Exactly. The Democrats did not do as well this year as they did in 2006. They lost seats in the Senate, and their performance in gubernatorial and statewide elections was not as good as it was 12 years ago. It cannot be forgotten that Trump's base did turn out, thereby mitigating the extent of the losses which they might have otherwise suffered. And polarization, more then anything else, has become a significant factor.

On the whole, the Democrats did almost exactly as well this year as they did in 2006.

In the House, they won slightly more total seats, with slightly more pick-ups and a slightly larger share of the vote than in 2006.

In the Senate, they won the exact same number of seats as they did in 2006 (not counting the special elections, which split 1/1 in any case).

In the governorships, they did do slightly worse, but the only big state they didn't win in 2018 that they did win in 2006 was Ohio (they didn't win governorships in FL or GA in 2006 either, and in fact got mucn closer in both in 2018).