Election 2018 Open Thread v2 - Mia, Mimi, Gil, and T.J.

[Oryxslayer]

The great thing about this is that we have another 10 or 20 seats that still appear reachable.

eh not really
Trumps nationalism rhetoric basically cost the GOP all the seats that were suburban and close in 2016.
All thats left to really take is basically
Katko Fitz Hurd  Bacon and 3-4 seats in texas with napping incumbents and weak dem challengers. They really should have saw what was happening to Culberson.

Dems did really sweep the table, but there are some seats left behind.

NY24, NY02/NY01 if retirement
PA01, PA10 & PA16 in a good year
GA07
IL13
MO02 in a good year
NE02
TX10, TX21, TX22, TX24, TX31
CA21 if it fails to flip
WA03 in a good year

Yep. I’d say CA-50 could be added to that list along with CA-21 depending on how that district goes.

nah all the losing GOP members now run to the 50th like vultures to get Hunters seat.

50 was only competitive because of ethics. If/when Hunter leaves the seat for a special, a republican will easily win and make the seat safe. I suspect that republican will be Issa again.

[2016]

The great thing about this is that we have another 10 or 20 seats that still appear reachable.

eh not really
Trumps nationalism rhetoric basically cost the GOP all the seats that were suburban and close in 2016.
All thats left to really take is basically
Katko Fitz Hurd  Bacon and 3-4 seats in texas with napping incumbents and weak dem challengers. They really should have saw what was happening to Culberson.

Not true. The Health Care Debacle in 2017 cost the GOP those Seats in the same vain Health Care cost the Dems the House in 2010 and the Senate in 2014.

[Person Man]

The great thing about this is that we have another 10 or 20 seats that still appear reachable.

eh not really
Trumps nationalism rhetoric basically cost the GOP all the seats that were suburban and close in 2016.
All thats left to really take is basically
Katko Fitz Hurd  Bacon and 3-4 seats in texas with napping incumbents and weak dem challengers. They really should have saw what was happening to Culberson.

Dems did really sweep the table, but there are some seats left behind.

NY24, NY02/NY01 if retirement
PA01, PA10 & PA16 in a good year
GA07
IL13
MO02 in a good year
NE02
TX10, TX21, TX22, TX24, TX31
CA21 if it fails to flip
WA03 in a good year

Yep. I’d say CA-50 could be added to that list along with CA-21 depending on how that district goes.

nah all the losing GOP members now run to the 50th like vultures to get Hunters seat.

50 was only competitive because of ethics. If/when Hunter leaves the seat for a special, a republican will easily win and make the seat safe. I suspect that republican will be Issa again.

If the chickens come home to roost, we are talking about have a large liberal majority.

[Oryxslayer]

BTW, todays the day when we learn if Erie will pull McMurrey across the finish line.

[wbrocks67]

Should we expect a call for UT-04 today?

Also what's going on with GA-07? Does Bourdeaux have a chance still? Recount? Isn't it like at 400 votes or something

[lfromnj]

Should we expect a call for UT-04 today?

Also what's going on with GA-07? Does Bourdeaux have a chance still? Recount? Isn't it like at 400 votes or something

She has an excellent chance. In 2020.

yeah id say in a normal election 400 is about a 5-10% chance of a victory but with Georgia 90% of the ballots can't be recounted due to electronic so its less than 2% IMO.

[new_patomic]

NE-02 is now down to a 51.0-49.0 Bacon win. Along with TX-23 (and maybe CA-21) another black eye for the moronic Dems that triaged this race because MUH weak candidate Kara Eastman and MUH unbeatable titan Don Bacon.

Speaking of moronic DCCC decisions, IL-13. Why exactly did we NOT target Davis? That race just sat at Lean R the entire cycle despite it being a Trump +5 or so district with a completely unremarkable incumbent. Unsurprisingly, Londrigan lost by around a point with minimal support.

There was I think a decent amount of spending here? Though I can't remember how much.

What annoyed me more than anything was the 13th kept getting ignored in other ways. Biden never made a stop here, and literally had to cross the district when in the final week he stumped for Underwood and then Kelly. When Obama released his first wave of endorsements he pretty much endorsed every Democrat in a competitive race in the state other than Londrigan; he endorsed Kelly, Underwood, Casten, Prizker, and Raoul. And his first 'major foray' into the midterms was a speech at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, which is the most populated and Democratic county in the 13th, and apparently no one thought it would be a good idea to reach out to the Democrat running here. Which was ironic given his speech was on the importance of voting, but apparently from what I heard they weren't even willing to play ball enough to get one photo of him and her together.

Pritzker was a team player. John Lewis was great and came out to Decatur. But it feels like we got ignored pretty much.

[Tender Branson]

BTW, todays the day when we learn if Erie will pull McMurrey across the finish line.

3.500 out of 7.000 ballots have already been counted today and McMurray only gained 500 votes.

That‘s not nearly enough to win the race ... because the gap is more than 2.400 votes.

[IceSpear]

The great thing about this is that we have another 10 or 20 seats that still appear reachable.

Only if 2020 is another Dem wave. If it's not, they'll be limited to only a few opportunities (at best) to play offense.

[Oryxslayer]

NE-02 is now down to a 51.0-49.0 Bacon win. Along with TX-23 (and maybe CA-21) another black eye for the moronic Dems that triaged this race because MUH weak candidate Kara Eastman and MUH unbeatable titan Don Bacon.

Speaking of moronic DCCC decisions, IL-13. Why exactly did we NOT target Davis? That race just sat at Lean R the entire cycle despite it being a Trump +5 or so district with a completely unremarkable incumbent. Unsurprisingly, Londrigan lost by around a point with minimal support.

There was I think a decent amount of spending here? Though I can't remember how much.

What annoyed me more than anything was the 13th kept getting ignored in other ways. Biden never made a stop here, and literally had to cross the district when in the final week he stumped for Underwood and then Kelly. When Obama released his first wave of endorsements he pretty much endorsed every Democrat in a competitive race in the state other than Londrigan; he endorsed Kelly, Underwood, Casten, Prizker, and Raoul. And his first 'major foray' into the midterms was a speech at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, which is the most populated and Democratic county in the 13th, and apparently no one thought it would be a good idea to reach out to the Democrat running here. Which was ironic given his speech was on the importance of voting, but apparently from what I heard they weren't even willing to play ball enough to get one photo of him and her together.

Pritzker was a team player. John Lewis was great and came out to Decatur. But it feels like we got ignored pretty much.

Yeah there were a couple million dem dollars sent here, it was prominent enough for NYT to poll it. I think the problem was that the 13th was always in the shadow of the 12th, and then when the 12th faded, and the 13th couldn't escape.

[new_patomic]

Yeah there were a couple million dem dollars sent here, it was prominent enough for NYT to poll it. I think the problem was that the 13th was always in the shadow of the 12th, and then when the 12th faded, and the 13th couldn't escape.

Pretty much. From the very beginning of the election it seems everyone, from pundits to politicians to 'experts,' expected the 12th to be THE competitive downstate election, even when Kelly was falling behind. Which I always thought was lunacy given the fundamentals/make up the districts, but hey at least this shouldn't happen again come 2020.

And, to the credit of the DCCC, I think they actually invested more here than they did in the 12th in the last month or so.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Nobody is mentioning that we should target Crenshaw, the GOP's new Golden Boy? He massively underperformed.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Nobody is mentioning that we should target Crenshaw, the GOP's new Golden Boy? He massively underperformed.

I think Marchant is the most enticing target. He is an old, anonymous backbencher that had never before a competitive election.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Nobody is mentioning that we should target Crenshaw, the GOP's new Golden Boy? He massively underperformed.

I think Marchant is the most enticing target. He is an old, anonymous backbencher that had never before a competitive election.

I agree. There were a lot of closer-than-expected races in Texas this year, a lot of pickup opportunities in 2020.

[Calthrina950]

Nobody is mentioning that we should target Crenshaw, the GOP's new Golden Boy? He massively underperformed.

What is your problem with Crenshaw?

[Politician]

Nobody is mentioning that we should target Crenshaw, the GOP's new Golden Boy? He massively underperformed.

What is your problem with Crenshaw?

"Why don't you love Republicans like I do you evil Democrat hack?"

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Aren't we supposed to know the results of UT-04 tonight?

[lfromnj]

Nobody is mentioning that we should target Crenshaw, the GOP's new Golden Boy? He massively underperformed.

Not really
he won by 8 which is about what 538's model stated.
it was an open seat in a quickly trending democrat district albiet with some HEAVY republican ancestry. Beto might even have carried this district or come within 2-3.  Considering those factors Crenshaw should be in good in 2020 barring a massive wave.
Anyway Marchant is #1 beto carried this district by 4 points and the dem opponent sucked ass Mccaul @#2  and Carter should be on retirement watch. Of the remaining the rest should be safe or relatively safe.
Olson can also be a target considering the insane growth of Fort Bend
But Crenshaw was outraised and was not an incumbent has just ran a tough race and primary so in general he doesn't seem like the candidate to sleep through. Crenshaw won't lose in 2020 unless its a massive wave.

[Torrain]

It appears to be over in NY-27:
https://twitter.com/DaveMcKinley2/status/1064996157032681472

[Politician]

It appears to be over in NY-27:
https://twitter.com/DaveMcKinley2/status/1064996157032681472

Where's Calthrina to whine about how partisanship caused Collins and Hunter to win? Oh wait, Calthrina only cares when it's a Demoncrat who does it.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Nobody is mentioning that we should target Crenshaw, the GOP's new Golden Boy? He massively underperformed.

By what metric did he massively underperform? If he just underperformed relative to PVI/Romney, that wouldn't be particularly remarkable, since that was true all over suburban TX. Plus, this was an open seat, so in some ways it was not that different from TX-03, where the R performance was also pretty lackluster by past standards.

The thing I would want to look at are the Beto-Cruz numbers in TX-02. How much, if at all, did Crenshaw overperform Cruz by? But I haven't seen them anywhere yet.

[MAINEiac4434]

Nobody is mentioning that we should target Crenshaw, the GOP's new Golden Boy? He massively underperformed.

By what metric did he massively underperform? If he just underperformed relative to PVI/Romney, that wouldn't be particularly remarkable, since that was true all over suburban TX. Plus, this was an open seat, so in some ways it was not that different from TX-03, where the R performance was also pretty lackluster by past standards.

The thing I would want to look at are the Beto-Cruz numbers in TX-02. How much, if at all, did Crenshaw overperform Cruz by? But I haven't seen them anywhere yet.

A young, attractive, disabled GOP veteran with a moderate streak whom the media was absolutely fellating following the Pete Davidson debacle got only 52% of the vote in a Republican district against an anonymous Democrat receiving no outside help. By what measure did he not underperform?

[Florida Man for Crime]

Nobody is mentioning that we should target Crenshaw, the GOP's new Golden Boy? He massively underperformed.

Not really
he won by 8 which is about what 538's model stated.
it was an open seat in a quickly trending democrat district albiet with some HEAVY republican ancestry. Beto might even have carried this district or come within 2-3.  Considering those factors Crenshaw should be in good in 2020 barring a massive wave.
Anyway Marchant is #1 beto carried this district by 4 points and the dem opponent sucked ass Mccaul @#2  and Carter should be on retirement watch. Of the remaining the rest should be safe or relatively safe.
Olson can also be a target considering the insane growth of Fort Bend
But Crenshaw was outraised and was not an incumbent has just ran a tough race and primary so in general he doesn't seem like the candidate to sleep through. Crenshaw won't lose in 2020 unless its a massive wave.

Add to that TX-10, and TX-21, simply because of how close they are (though I don't think either is particularly likely, given how good turnout was in Austin, neither one is really out of reach given the Beto #s). And of course TX-23. But other than TX-23, TX-24 obviously should be the #1 target in TX. Get a good Dem recruit there, give them a couple million dollars, and let them make Kenny Marchant learn what it is like to be Pete Sessions.

[lfromnj]

Nobody is mentioning that we should target Crenshaw, the GOP's new Golden Boy? He massively underperformed.

By what metric did he massively underperform? If he just underperformed relative to PVI/Romney, that wouldn't be particularly remarkable, since that was true all over suburban TX. Plus, this was an open seat, so in some ways it was not that different from TX-03, where the R performance was also pretty lackluster by past standards.

The thing I would want to look at are the Beto-Cruz numbers in TX-02. How much, if at all, did Crenshaw overperform Cruz by? But I haven't seen them anywhere yet.

A young, attractive, disabled GOP veteran with a moderate streak whom the media was absolutely fellating following the Pete Davidson debacle got only 52% of the vote in a Republican district against an anonymous Democrat receiving no outside help. By what measure did he not underperform?

thats why the democrat outraised the republican.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/texas/2/

[Florida Man for Crime]

A young, attractive, disabled GOP veteran with a moderate streak whom the media was absolutely fellating following the Pete Davidson debacle got only 52% of the vote in a Republican district against an anonymous Democrat receiving no outside help. By what measure did he not underperform?

The R candidate in TX-03 was also a veteran (although not disabled) and underperformed Trump notably in a suburban ancestrally R seat. I am not saying that TX-02 is not worth contesting. By all means, it is. It is just not unique in that respect among TX suburban districts, and is *probably* not the best of the various targets (pending finding out what the Beto-Cruz numbers were). But the TX suburbs for 2020 are (at least if the Dem Presidential nominee contests TX and does at least reasonably well) a target rich environment, so just because TX-02 is not the best of all the various targets does not mean it shouldn't be targeted.