Election 2018 Open Thread v2 - Mia, Mimi, Gil, and T.J.

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1064685454556127232

Guess I should have been more optimistic. I guess those were provisionals or something and thus more Democratic than expected.

You haven't been following my posts....     j/k

[Pericles]

YES! Wow, the great news just keeps on coming!

[lfromnj]

If the GOP loses this do they just give up and make a fair district for the 20's?
Imagine trying to gerrymander a state for a 4-0 yet only holding for 2/5 of the cycle.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

MCADAMS TOOK THE LEAD

https://twitter.com/RobertGehrke/status/1064684523814670336

YAH YEET

[Progressive Pessimist]

This Utah race is like a tennis match!

[Ronnie]

In other good news for Dems, Tom Umberg just overtook Janet Nguyen in California’s 34th state senate district:

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1064685185386467328

If there’s a silver lining for CA Republicans, there isn’t much more room for them to fall after they’ve been reduced to absolute rubble in the state.

[justfollowingtheelections]

If McAdams and Cox both win the Democrats will have won 235 seats (a total of 41 R seats).  BTW, TJ Cox would be the only Filipino-American in Congress, and if I'm not mistaken the first ever Filipino American with voting rights?

[MycroftCZ]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1064685454556127232

OOGA BOOGA!!!!!!!!!!!! Yes, another blue dog plox!

GOTTEM

[pppolitics]

Arizona finished counting

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1064688392573673472

[Thatkat04]

Was not expecting that Utah drop.

Democrats could actually get to 40 seats.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

If there’s a silver lining for CA Republicans, there isn’t much more room for them to fall after they’ve been reduced to absolute rubble in the state.

That has been said before, and then CA Republicans fell even further.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

If McAdams and Cox both win the Democrats will have won 235 seats (a total of 41 R seats).  BTW, TJ Cox would be the only Filipino-American in Congress, and if I'm not mistaken the first ever Filipino American with voting rights?

If it is 41 with both of them, then we just need NY-27 to somehow come through against all odds to get to 42. It can still happen... You just gotta believe.

[lfromnj]

If there’s a silver lining for CA Republicans, there isn’t much more room for them to fall after they’ve been reduced to absolute rubble in the state.

That has been said before, and then CA Republicans fell even further.

I mean it is kind of true until redistricting. If they fall further its already over for the national GOP. Basically all the other republican seats voted for Trump by double digits besides Nunes which was by 9,5 points so close enough. They are also all not trending democrat seriously besides the 50th which is republican enough to still elect an indicted congressman. So yeah id say the CA GOP can breathe for a while unless there is a total collapse nationwide.

[DINGO Joe]

If there’s a silver lining for CA Republicans, there isn’t much more room for them to fall after they’ve been reduced to absolute rubble in the state.

That has been said before, and then CA Republicans fell even further.

Actually felt kind of bad watching Trump wander thru one of the few R places left in California, calling the town "Pleasure" and rambling about raking the forest, but then I remembered, they voted for him.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Does someone have a rundown of what's left to count in UT-4?

Also, did any State legislative seat flip in AZ? Those looked so tantalizingly close...

[Ronnie]

If there’s a silver lining for CA Republicans, there isn’t much more room for them to fall after they’ve been reduced to absolute rubble in the state.

That has been said before, and then CA Republicans fell even further.

What do they even have left other than their rump of rural Central Valley and far north districts?  If TJ Cox wins, I don’t know of any Republican seats that could fall even in a tsunami, unless Duncan Hunter sticks around.  At the same time, I can point to at least five Democratic seats that could feasibly fall in a good national year for Republicans.

Dems might be able to pick off a few more seats in the state assembly or state senate, but it doesn’t really matter.  Republicans are powerless on the state level.

[Thatkat04]

Does someone have a rundown of what's left to count in UT-4?

Also, did any State legislative seat flip in AZ? Those looked so tantalizingly close...

Utah County is probably done or near done, Salt Lake County has over 1,000 "cured" ballots left. This last batch from Salt Lake County went 64-36 for McAdams so I'd much rather be him right now.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Victory speech incoming?

https://twitter.com/BenMcAdams/status/1064686249800196096

[Xing]

If Democrats win CA-21 and UT-04, that would be a 40-seat gain, assuming that NY-22 holds for Brindisi (which it almost certainly will.) They would need GA-07 and/or NY-27 to get to 41 or 42.

[lfromnj]

Anyway Wasserman looks like he might have some egg on his face after roasting Gerkhe over utah 4th.

[Virginiá]

What do they even have left other than their rump of rural Central Valley and far north districts?  If TJ Cox wins, I don’t know of any Republican seats that could fall even in a tsunami, unless Duncan Hunter sticks around.  At the same time, I can point to at least five Democratic seats that could feasibly fall in a good national year for Republicans.

Dems might be able to pick off a few more seats in the state assembly or state senate, but it doesn’t really matter.  Republicans are powerless on the state level.

I called my friend who lives in Cali tonight and ended it with "your state is now boring" (more or less )

Not much left there. Democrats already control a much higher % of seats in Congress and the legislature than their vote share would suggest too. It's probably all defense from here on out.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If Democrats win CA-21 and UT-04, that would be a 40-seat gain, assuming that NY-22 holds for Brindisi (which it almost certainly will.) They would need GA-07 and/or NY-27 to get to 41 or 42.

It would be a 40-seat gain from the House as it currently stands, but a 41-seat gain from 2016. I always thought election-to-election comparisons made more sense.

[justfollowingtheelections]

If Democrats win CA-21 and UT-04, that would be a 40-seat gain, assuming that NY-22 holds for Brindisi (which it almost certainly will.) They would need GA-07 and/or NY-27 to get to 41 or 42.

The Democrats already have 233 if you count NM-2.  With CA-21, and UT-4 they're up to 235, which would be a 41-seat gain (the Democrats had won 194 in 2016).  If you're counting Lamb's seat as D, that's ridiculous because the Democrats never had 195 representatives in the 115th Congress.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

538 is projecting a 40 seat gain for the Dems.

[Devout Centrist]

What do they even have left other than their rump of rural Central Valley and far north districts?  If TJ Cox wins, I don’t know of any Republican seats that could fall even in a tsunami, unless Duncan Hunter sticks around.  At the same time, I can point to at least five Democratic seats that could feasibly fall in a good national year for Republicans.

Dems might be able to pick off a few more seats in the state assembly or state senate, but it doesn’t really matter.  Republicans are powerless on the state level.

I called my friend who lives in Cali tonight and ended it with "your state is now boring" (more or less )

Not much left there. Democrats already control a much higher % of seats in Congress and the legislature than their vote share would suggest too. It's probably all defense from here on out.

Not necessarily; there is still some room for the Republican Party to fall.