Election 2018 Open Thread v2 - Mia, Mimi, Gil, and T.J.

[Pollster]

BREAKING

Utah County posted new Results for the UT-4 Race and Mia Love now leads by 1516 Votes.

McAdams needs 58.5 of the SLC Provisionals to pass Love.

Yeah, doesnt look like Democrats will win UT-04. At least the commission is passing, so that should make taking the seat easierand also possibly unseating Valadao will mean the Ds still take 39 seats.

Democrats will never ever take that Seat if they don't win it this year. They're certainly won't be getting it in a POTUS Year. And the 2022 MidTerms will only be favorable to Dems if Trump wins; If he loses Republicans will gain most of the Seats back they lost this year.

Congressional map will be different, probably somewhat more favorable to Dems than the current one.

[2016]

BREAKING

Utah County posted new Results for the UT-4 Race and Mia Love now leads by 1516 Votes.

McAdams needs 58.5 of the SLC Provisionals to pass Love.

Yeah, doesnt look like Democrats will win UT-04. At least the commission is passing, so that should make taking the seat easierand also possibly unseating Valadao will mean the Ds still take 39 seats.

Democrats will never ever take that Seat if they don't win it this year. They're certainly won't be getting it in a POTUS Year. And the 2022 MidTerms will only be favorable to Dems if Trump wins; If he loses Republicans will gain most of the Seats back they lost this year.

Congressional map will be different, probably somewhat more favorable to Dems than the current one.

How? Going to be interesting how Whitmer (MI) and Evers (WI) deal with Redistricting after the 2020 Census. They can't do much unless they both have a Democratic State Legislature after 2020.

[Sestak]

BREAKING

Utah County posted new Results for the UT-4 Race and Mia Love now leads by 1516 Votes.

McAdams needs 58.5 of the SLC Provisionals to pass Love.

Yeah, doesnt look like Democrats will win UT-04. At least the commission is passing, so that should make taking the seat easierand also possibly unseating Valadao will mean the Ds still take 39 seats.

Democrats will never ever take that Seat if they don't win it this year. They're certainly won't be getting it in a POTUS Year. And the 2022 MidTerms will only be favorable to Dems if Trump wins; If he loses Republicans will gain most of the Seats back they lost this year.

Congressional map will be different, probably somewhat more favorable to Dems than the current one.

How? Going to be interesting how Whitmer (MI) and Evers (WI) deal with Redistricting after the 2020 Census. They can't do much unless they both have a Democratic State Legislature after 2020.

MI passed independent redistricting this year. The legislature and governor both are out of the picture.

Evers, on the other hand, can still veto Republican gerrymanders and force fairer maps.

[Zaybay]

BREAKING

Utah County posted new Results for the UT-4 Race and Mia Love now leads by 1516 Votes.

McAdams needs 58.5 of the SLC Provisionals to pass Love.

Yeah, doesnt look like Democrats will win UT-04. At least the commission is passing, so that should make taking the seat easierand also possibly unseating Valadao will mean the Ds still take 39 seats.

Democrats will never ever take that Seat if they don't win it this year. They're certainly won't be getting it in a POTUS Year. And the 2022 MidTerms will only be favorable to Dems if Trump wins; If he loses Republicans will gain most of the Seats back they lost this year.

Well, thats not true. As I said before, if the commission passes, they will have to make a Lean-Likely D seat in SLC county, which would be easily winnable for Ds.

Republican map drawers wouldn't make a Lean/Likely D seat in SLC even with the commission recommendations. At best they'd draw a south SLC seat that is R+9 or so. Granted, McAdams would've won that this year, but it's not Lean/Likely D by any stretch of the imagination.

You shouldnt use PVI for a place like UT, especially with its bloated 2012 result(the UT-04 district has a PVI of R+13, to give an idea). The most likely result would be around an even seat, or one that voted slightly Democratic, as counties must be kept whole(cant cut SLC).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

BREAKING

Utah County posted new Results for the UT-4 Race and Mia Love now leads by 1516 Votes.

McAdams needs 58.5 of the SLC Provisionals to pass Love.

Yeah, doesnt look like Democrats will win UT-04. At least the commission is passing, so that should make taking the seat easierand also possibly unseating Valadao will mean the Ds still take 39 seats.

Democrats will never ever take that Seat if they don't win it this year. They're certainly won't be getting it in a POTUS Year. And the 2022 MidTerms will only be favorable to Dems if Trump wins; If he loses Republicans will gain most of the Seats back they lost this year.

Congressional map will be different, probably somewhat more favorable to Dems than the current one.

How? Going to be interesting how Whitmer (MI) and Evers (WI) deal with Redistricting after the 2020 Census. They can't do much unless they both have a Democratic State Legislature after 2020.

They can force court-drawn maps

[completely dead account]

BREAKING

Utah County posted new Results for the UT-4 Race and Mia Love now leads by 1516 Votes.

McAdams needs 58.5 of the SLC Provisionals to pass Love.

Yeah, doesnt look like Democrats will win UT-04. At least the commission is passing, so that should make taking the seat easierand also possibly unseating Valadao will mean the Ds still take 39 seats.

Democrats will never ever take that Seat if they don't win it this year. They're certainly won't be getting it in a POTUS Year. And the 2022 MidTerms will only be favorable to Dems if Trump wins; If he loses Republicans will gain most of the Seats back they lost this year.

Well then, they better take it! It's even harder to win as a Democrat in Utah than in Wyoming, Idaho, or Oklahoma so if Dems take a seat in Utah, that'd be great news!

[lfromnj]

for Utah 2008 numbers are the best
Wave election but Utah has been trending democrat so its PVI should be the best overall.

[Zaybay]

BREAKING

Utah County posted new Results for the UT-4 Race and Mia Love now leads by 1516 Votes.

McAdams needs 58.5 of the SLC Provisionals to pass Love.

Yeah, doesnt look like Democrats will win UT-04. At least the commission is passing, so that should make taking the seat easierand also possibly unseating Valadao will mean the Ds still take 39 seats.

Democrats will never ever take that Seat if they don't win it this year. They're certainly won't be getting it in a POTUS Year. And the 2022 MidTerms will only be favorable to Dems if Trump wins; If he loses Republicans will gain most of the Seats back they lost this year.

Well, thats not true. As I said before, if the commission passes, they will have to make a Lean-Likely D seat in SLC county, which would be easily winnable for Ds.

Republican map drawers wouldn't make a Lean/Likely D seat in SLC even with the commission recommendations. At best they'd draw a south SLC seat that is R+9 or so. Granted, McAdams would've won that this year, but it's not Lean/Likely D by any stretch of the imagination.

You shouldnt use PVI for a place like UT, especially with its bloated 2012 result(the UT-04 district has a PVI of R+13, to give an idea). The most likely result would be around an even seat, or one that voted slightly Democratic, as counties must be kept whole(cant cut SLC).

I am well aware. The resulting seat would still not be leans/likely D solely because McAdams would've carried it in a D+8 year. Don't be a hack.

When I said it would have been even or slightly Democratic, I was talking about if the newly redistricted seat voted in an even election. The area the seat would encompass would be the rapidly D trending and growing area of Salt Lake County. So, by 2022, factoring growth and the D trend in the area, the seat would be a lean/likely D seat, instead of the tossup/lean D seat it would be today.

Its not being a hack, its being able to see the numbers.

[2016]

Democrat Gina Ortiz-Jones has conceded to Rep. Will Hurd (R) in TX-23

https://twitter.com/GinaOrtizJones/status/1064575408002162688

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Democrat Gina Ortiz-Jones has conceded to Rep. Will Hurd (R) in TX-23

https://twitter.com/GinaOrtizJones/status/1064575408002162688

Damn shame. If only the DCCC didn't abandon her, she probably would've won.

[wbrocks67]

No love for Mia Love in UT-04. Nate Silver said that the new ballots were only 66% Love instead of ~74%. These late ballots are more Dem-skewing, so it's possible McAdams could pull it out with Salt Lake County's last batch.

[Nyvin]

Utah is trending Dem at a pretty fast pace according to everything we're seeing right now, especially Salt Lake County.

By 2022, if there's ANY district that's entirely in SL County, it almost certainly will be winnable by Democrats.

Salt Lake County faces the prospect of both being an urban area AND being in a western state.   Both of those factors favor Democrats from what we're seeing.

[Virginiá]

Damn shame. If only the DCCC didn't abandon her, she probably would've won.

They really blew it both here and CA-21 as well (do we still have a chance there?). I think for 2020 and maybe beyond, they need to concede that maybe their polling isn't so great and that they should just heavily contest seats that on paper should be highly competitive if not better. At least if those seats are rich with Latino voters/other POC.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

BREAKING

Utah County posted new Results for the UT-4 Race and Mia Love now leads by 1516 Votes.

McAdams needs 58.5 of the SLC Provisionals to pass Love.

Yeah, doesnt look like Democrats will win UT-04. At least the commission is passing, so that should make taking the seat easierand also possibly unseating Valadao will mean the Ds still take 39 seats.

Democrats will never ever take that Seat if they don't win it this year. They're certainly won't be getting it in a POTUS Year. And the 2022 MidTerms will only be favorable to Dems if Trump wins; If he loses Republicans will gain most of the Seats back they lost this year.

Well, thats not true. As I said before, if the commission passes, they will have to make a Lean-Likely D seat in SLC county, which would be easily winnable for Ds.

Republican map drawers wouldn't make a Lean/Likely D seat in SLC even with the commission recommendations. At best they'd draw a south SLC seat that is R+9 or so. Granted, McAdams would've won that this year, but it's not Lean/Likely D by any stretch of the imagination.

You shouldnt use PVI for a place like UT, especially with its bloated 2012 result(the UT-04 district has a PVI of R+13, to give an idea). The most likely result would be around an even seat, or one that voted slightly Democratic, as counties must be kept whole(cant cut SLC).

I am well aware. The resulting seat would still not be leans/likely D solely because McAdams would've carried it in a D+8 year. Don't be a hack.

If you draw an R leaning seat in the southern part of Salt Lake County, then the northern part of Salt Lake County, including Salt Lake City, still has to go somewhere else. That other district will at the minimum not be safe R, and is not likely to be more than about R+6 or R+7 at the most, and that is with the bloated PVI including Romney 2012.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Democrat Gina Ortiz-Jones has conceded to Rep. Will Hurd (R) in TX-23

https://twitter.com/GinaOrtizJones/status/1064575408002162688

She said short "this time" which suggests that she may run again in 2020, i.e. she hopes that "next time" she won't come up short.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Damn shame. If only the DCCC didn't abandon her, she probably would've won.

They really blew it both here and CA-21 as well (do we still have a chance there?). I think for 2020 and maybe beyond, they need to concede that maybe their polling isn't so great and that they should just heavily contest seats that on paper should be highly competitive if not better. At least if those seats are rich with Latino voters/other POC.

Winner winner chicken dinner.

[wesmoorenerd]

Democrat Gina Ortiz-Jones has conceded to Rep. Will Hurd (R) in TX-23

https://twitter.com/GinaOrtizJones/status/1064575408002162688

She said short "this time" which suggests that she may run again in 2020, i.e. she hopes that "next time" she won't come up short.

Honestly, she deserves the damn seat. If she runs again in 2020, and I hope she will, she'll win.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Democrat Gina Ortiz-Jones has conceded to Rep. Will Hurd (R) in TX-23

https://twitter.com/GinaOrtizJones/status/1064575408002162688

She said short "this time" which suggests that she may run again in 2020, i.e. she hopes that "next time" she won't come up short.

Honestly, she deserves the damn seat. If she runs again in 2020, and I hope she will, she'll win.

Yeah, I think so too.

[Tintrlvr]

BREAKING

Utah County posted new Results for the UT-4 Race and Mia Love now leads by 1516 Votes.

McAdams needs 58.5 of the SLC Provisionals to pass Love.

Yeah, doesnt look like Democrats will win UT-04. At least the commission is passing, so that should make taking the seat easierand also possibly unseating Valadao will mean the Ds still take 39 seats.

Democrats will never ever take that Seat if they don't win it this year. They're certainly won't be getting it in a POTUS Year. And the 2022 MidTerms will only be favorable to Dems if Trump wins; If he loses Republicans will gain most of the Seats back they lost this year.

Well, thats not true. As I said before, if the commission passes, they will have to make a Lean-Likely D seat in SLC county, which would be easily winnable for Ds.

Republican map drawers wouldn't make a Lean/Likely D seat in SLC even with the commission recommendations. At best they'd draw a south SLC seat that is R+9 or so. Granted, McAdams would've won that this year, but it's not Lean/Likely D by any stretch of the imagination.

You shouldnt use PVI for a place like UT, especially with its bloated 2012 result(the UT-04 district has a PVI of R+13, to give an idea). The most likely result would be around an even seat, or one that voted slightly Democratic, as counties must be kept whole(cant cut SLC).

I am well aware. The resulting seat would still not be leans/likely D solely because McAdams would've carried it in a D+8 year. Don't be a hack.

If you draw an R leaning seat in the southern part of Salt Lake County, then the northern part of Salt Lake County, including Salt Lake City, still has to go somewhere else. That other district will at the minimum not be safe R, and is not likely to be more than about R+6 or R+7 at the most, and that is with the bloated PVI including Romney 2012.

Right. Given this result especially, even though it appears Love narrowly won reelection, because of the constraints put on the commission (and the legislature, if it rejects the commission's map) by the amendment (aside from the commission, the general constraints on districts basically require them not to split Salt Lake County more than two ways and not to split up Salt Lake City at all), the Republicans have a choice between creating two competitive seats (one entirely in Salt Lake County but excluding Salt Lake City and one including Salt Lake City and other out-state areas) or one likely D seat based on Salt Lake City and its immediate environs while leaving the other three seats safe. If Mia Love were less unpopular and generally more politically connected, they might take the risk and draw two competitive districts to try to save her, but it would have to be over the howls of another Congressperson, and she would probably lose reelection in an ~R+5 seat anyway, so her lack of political connections mean they won't do it.

Note that the commission requires the support of at least one Democrat to pass its maps (5/7 members and 3 are appointed by the minority party), so the commission at least won't be blatantly partisan in its map-drawing. The commission and the legislature both are also technically forbidden from taking into account partisan considerations or incumbent protection, so any partisan map could be subject to a court challenge on those grounds.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/Ali2e/status/1064556316784566280
https://twitter.com/Ali2e/status/1064569248704532485

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

[Virginiá]

Right. Given this result especially, even though it appears Love narrowly won reelection, because of the constraints put on the commission (and the legislature, if it rejects the commission's map) by the amendment (aside from the commission, the general constraints on districts basically require them not to split Salt Lake County more than two ways and not to split up Salt Lake City at all), the Republicans have a choice between creating two competitive seats (one entirely in Salt Lake County but excluding Salt Lake City and one including Salt Lake City and other out-state areas) or one likely D seat based on Salt Lake City and its immediate environs while leaving the other three seats safe. If Mia Love were less unpopular and generally more politically connected, they might take the risk and draw two competitive districts to try to save her, but it would have to be over the howls of another Congressperson, and she would probably lose reelection in an ~R+5 seat anyway, so her lack of political connections mean they won't do it.

Note that the commission requires the support of at least one Democrat to pass its maps (5/7 members and 3 are appointed by the minority party), so the commission at least won't be blatantly partisan in its map-drawing. The commission and the legislature both are also technically forbidden from taking into account partisan considerations or incumbent protection, so any partisan map could be subject to a court challenge on those grounds.

Other option: just repeal the initiative entirely using their ginormous majorities, and say "the result was too close to decide something important," or "we're just making a few small changes" (that cripple the entire initiative), or some other tripe like that.

Utah has no rules against modifying initiatives, and voters can only get initiated statutes on the ballot, not constitutional amendments, so the legislature can repeal what it doesn't like for any reason. The only question here is, will they do that?

[Tintrlvr]

Right. Given this result especially, even though it appears Love narrowly won reelection, because of the constraints put on the commission (and the legislature, if it rejects the commission's map) by the amendment (aside from the commission, the general constraints on districts basically require them not to split Salt Lake County more than two ways and not to split up Salt Lake City at all), the Republicans have a choice between creating two competitive seats (one entirely in Salt Lake County but excluding Salt Lake City and one including Salt Lake City and other out-state areas) or one likely D seat based on Salt Lake City and its immediate environs while leaving the other three seats safe. If Mia Love were less unpopular and generally more politically connected, they might take the risk and draw two competitive districts to try to save her, but it would have to be over the howls of another Congressperson, and she would probably lose reelection in an ~R+5 seat anyway, so her lack of political connections mean they won't do it.

Note that the commission requires the support of at least one Democrat to pass its maps (5/7 members and 3 are appointed by the minority party), so the commission at least won't be blatantly partisan in its map-drawing. The commission and the legislature both are also technically forbidden from taking into account partisan considerations or incumbent protection, so any partisan map could be subject to a court challenge on those grounds.

Other option: just repeal the initiative entirely using their ginormous majorities, and say "the result was too close to decide something important," or "we're just making a few small changes" (that cripple the entire initiative), or some other tripe like that.

Utah has no rules against modifying initiatives, and voters can only get initiated statutes on the ballot, not constitutional amendments, so the legislature can repeal what it doesn't like for any reason. The only question here is, will they do that?

Ah, fair. I was assuming the initiative was definitive.

[Virginiá]

Ah, fair. I was assuming the initiative was definitive.

Unfortunately not . I think they are also modifying the medical marijuana initiative, although apparently this was expected.

I'm hoping they respect the will of the voters, but I can't say I have a good feeling about it, because when it comes to redistricting, most politicians turn into blood sucking vampires with an insatiable lust for power.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/Ali2e/status/1064556316784566280
https://twitter.com/Ali2e/status/1064569248704532485

McMurray is behind by 2500 votes, so he'd need to win over 70% of these ballots to have a chance. Hard to see.