Election 2018 Open Thread v2 - Mia, Mimi, Gil, and T.J.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1064685454556127232

OOGA BOOGA!!!!!!!!!!!! Yes, another blue dog plox!

Thanks God if so. I like Blue Dogs a lot..

Me too. I'll just be honest and blunt and say that what helped McAdams over the top is that he is that non-controversial pro life conservadem who is a straight white mormon male born and raised in Utah. While the same could not be said for Love. Like it or not, identity politics influences contests.

I would formulate slightly differently: in conservative-leaning districts (and UT-4 is, usually, one of them) Democrats will win more if they will run McAdams-type candidates: somewhat conservative, may be - pro-life, and so on, instead of running "bold progressives" in them. No one calls for running conservadems (though i repeat - there are NO more real conservatives in the party, even among state legislators, only - of moderate type) in San Francisco, then - why vice versa? TBH - the same is even more true for Republicans, who run ultraconservatives even in very liberal districts.

You are out of your element "dude"...

Reality is that "pro-life" doesn't amount to crap in West Coast and Mountain West CDs in these types of districts....

A Country Boy Can Survive

When did i say, that i mean West Coast and (most, at least) of the Mountain West CD?  Never, as i see my post (though in Utah or, may be, Idaho, that could be helpful). But in lots of Southern and substantial number of Midwestern districts being pro-life is a plus (and i state it as pro-choice man). In some districts (and here - including Mountain West), being pro-gun is a plus. And so on. So, dude, you either misundertood me, or intentionaly changed what i had to say...

the abortion issue isn't really all that big out west - the brand of conservatism typical in the American West is more "anti-big government" in emphasis. opposition to gun control is part of that.

[wbrocks67]

NE-02 is now down to a 51.0-49.0 Bacon win. Along with TX-23 (and maybe CA-21) another black eye for the moronic Dems that triaged this race because MUH weak candidate Kara Eastman and MUH unbeatable titan Don Bacon.

Yeah, I really got annoyed when they triaged Eastman to give money to Axne in Iowa. Turns out Axne needed it (only won by like, what, 2?) but the fact that Eastman also lost by only 2 with way less help is incredibly frustrating. That was a winnable race.

[wbrocks67]

Is there a reason NYT just gives up on their election map (overall) after election day? They are still updating house races for win/lose, but a ton of statewide and house races are completely out of date with the specific vote totals. It's like they gave up on updating most races after election night.

[Landslide Lyndon]

NE-02 is now down to a 51.0-49.0 Bacon win. Along with TX-23 (and maybe CA-21) another black eye for the moronic Dems that triaged this race because MUH weak candidate Kara Eastman and MUH unbeatable titan Don Bacon.

Yeah, I really got annoyed when they triaged Eastman to give money to Axne in Iowa. Turns out Axne needed it (only won by like, what, 2?) but the fact that Eastman also lost by only 2 with way less help is incredibly frustrating. That was a winnable race.

Bacon seems to be a weak incumbent, so it's almost certain that he will face another stiff challenge in two years.

[Mr.Phips]

NE-02 is now down to a 51.0-49.0 Bacon win. Along with TX-23 (and maybe CA-21) another black eye for the moronic Dems that triaged this race because MUH weak candidate Kara Eastman and MUH unbeatable titan Don Bacon.

Yeah, I really got annoyed when they triaged Eastman to give money to Axne in Iowa. Turns out Axne needed it (only won by like, what, 2?) but the fact that Eastman also lost by only 2 with way less help is incredibly frustrating. That was a winnable race.

I knew that NE-02 would end up very close.  It was actually one of my upset picks.

[Brittain33]

Is there a reason NYT just gives up on their election map (overall) after election day? They are still updating house races for win/lose, but a ton of statewide and house races are completely out of date with the specific vote totals. It's like they gave up on updating most races after election night.

Is there even a direct link to those results from NYT's front page? I only find them by googling.

[lfromnj]

NE-02 is now down to a 51.0-49.0 Bacon win. Along with TX-23 (and maybe CA-21) another black eye for the moronic Dems that triaged this race because MUH weak candidate Kara Eastman and MUH unbeatable titan Don Bacon.

Speaking of moronic DCCC decisions, IL-13. Why exactly did we NOT target Davis? That race just sat at Lean R the entire cycle despite it being a Trump +5 or so district with a completely unremarkable incumbent. Unsurprisingly, Londrigan lost by around a point with minimal support.

They were too busy making sure Wexton won by 12 rather than 10 to target these seats.

I think ca 21 was a fair race to triage accounting for previous fundamentals such as 2016 victory margin showing he has legit cross over appeal + the top 2 primary. but yeah #bothsides did the most stupid moves in VA 10th. The GOP should have known the district was lost. The dems should have known that if they lost Va 10th they were picking up like 5 seats unless there was some WWC #populist revival.

[wbrocks67]

CA totals, as up to date as I can tell:

CD10: Harder (D) 51.6% - Denham (R) 48.4%
CD21: Valadao (R) 50.5% - Cox (D) 49.5%
CD22: Hill (D) 53.2% - Knight (R) 46.8%
CD39: Cisneros (D) 51.0% - Kim (R) 49.0%
CD45: Porter (D) 51.7% - Walters (R) 48.3%
CD48: Rouda (D) 53.3% - Rohrabacher (R) 46.7%
CD49: Levin (D) 56.0% - Harkey (R) 44.0%
CD50: Hunter (R) 52.2% - Campa-Najjar (D) 47.8%

Now I'm just getting greedy because given a couple more $$$, CA50 probably could've swung too. It looks like by the end of counting, Hunter will only be up about 3%

[wbrocks67]

NE-02 is now down to a 51.0-49.0 Bacon win. Along with TX-23 (and maybe CA-21) another black eye for the moronic Dems that triaged this race because MUH weak candidate Kara Eastman and MUH unbeatable titan Don Bacon.

Speaking of moronic DCCC decisions, IL-13. Why exactly did we NOT target Davis? That race just sat at Lean R the entire cycle despite it being a Trump +5 or so district with a completely unremarkable incumbent. Unsurprisingly, Londrigan lost by around a point with minimal support.

They were too busy making sure Wexton won by 12 rather than 10 to target these seats.

I think ca 21 was a fair race to triage accounting for previous fundamentals such as 2016 victory margin showing he has legit cross over appeal + the top 2 primary. but yeah #bothsides did the most stupid moves in VA 10th. The GOP should have known the district was lost. The dems should have known that if they lost Va 10th they were picking up like 5 seats unless there was some WWC #populist revival.

I think someone else said this above, but I think going forward, DCCC needs to go into these races despite their polling. So even if it looks like a hard-sell with an incumbent, but Hillary/the D won it in a presidential year, they should just content it anyway. Because then they end up with egg on their faces in races that they could've won, like NE-02 and CA21.

[smoltchanov]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1064685454556127232

OOGA BOOGA!!!!!!!!!!!! Yes, another blue dog plox!

Thanks God if so. I like Blue Dogs a lot..

Me too. I'll just be honest and blunt and say that what helped McAdams over the top is that he is that non-controversial pro life conservadem who is a straight white mormon male born and raised in Utah. While the same could not be said for Love. Like it or not, identity politics influences contests.

I would formulate slightly differently: in conservative-leaning districts (and UT-4 is, usually, one of them) Democrats will win more if they will run McAdams-type candidates: somewhat conservative, may be - pro-life, and so on, instead of running "bold progressives" in them. No one calls for running conservadems (though i repeat - there are NO more real conservatives in the party, even among state legislators, only - of moderate type) in San Francisco, then - why vice versa? TBH - the same is even more true for Republicans, who run ultraconservatives even in very liberal districts.

You are out of your element "dude"...

Reality is that "pro-life" doesn't amount to crap in West Coast and Mountain West CDs in these types of districts....

A Country Boy Can Survive

When did i say, that i mean West Coast and (most, at least) of the Mountain West CD?  Never, as i see my post (though in Utah or, may be, Idaho, that could be helpful). But in lots of Southern and substantial number of Midwestern districts being pro-life is a plus (and i state it as pro-choice man). In some districts (and here - including Mountain West), being pro-gun is a plus. And so on. So, dude, you either misundertood me, or intentionaly changed what i had to say...

the abortion issue isn't really all that big out west - the brand of conservatism typical in the American West is more "anti-big government" in emphasis. opposition to gun control is part of that.

That's exactly what i said and why i mentioned Utah and Idaho only. South and parts of Midwest - another matter, and i stressed it as well.

[lfromnj]

https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7g96g21r


So some "garbage" Berkeley poll basically nailed all the races besides Rohrabacher which they atleast tied in.

Meanwhile nyt and monmouth has trump at even approval in all these districts.

NEW GOLD STANDARD?

[YE]

Being pro-life is a big deal among Mormons, guys. Mormons live in Utah (although less so the 4th).

[wbrocks67]

In KS-02, with some new votes, Watkins (R) lead is down to only 0.7%. It's a shame we couldn't of pulled that race out too. Kansas would've been even more blue.

[wbrocks67]

Devin Nunes lead is also down to 7.0% in CA-22. The fact that he may only win by like 6% in the end is pretty crazy. Dems should definitely plan to target this seat in 2020.

[smoltchanov]

Devin Nunes lead is also down to 7.0% in CA-22. The fact that he may only win by like 6% in the end is pretty crazy. Dems should definitely plan to target this seat in 2020.

Democrats need a very good turnout to beat him. Will it happen?

[Person Man]

The great thing about this is that we have another 10 or 20 seats that still appear reachable.

[lfromnj]

The great thing about this is that we have another 10 or 20 seats that still appear reachable.

eh not really
Trumps nationalism rhetoric basically cost the GOP all the seats that were suburban and close in 2016.
All thats left to really take is basically
Katko Fitz Hurd  Bacon and 3-4 seats in texas with napping incumbents and weak dem challengers. They really should have saw what was happening to Culberson.

[Oryxslayer]

The great thing about this is that we have another 10 or 20 seats that still appear reachable.

eh not really
Trumps nationalism rhetoric basically cost the GOP all the seats that were suburban and close in 2016.
All thats left to really take is basically
Katko Fitz Hurd  Bacon and 3-4 seats in texas with napping incumbents and weak dem challengers. They really should have saw what was happening to Culberson.

Dems did really sweep the table, but there are some seats left behind.

NY24, NY02/NY01 if retirement
PA01, PA10 & PA16 in a good year
GA07
IL13
MO02 in a good year
NE02
TX10, TX21, TX22, TX24, TX31
CA21 if it fails to flip
WA03 in a good year

[GeorgiaModerate]

The education gap:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1064727585786081282

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The great thing about this is that we have another 10 or 20 seats that still appear reachable.

eh not really
Trumps nationalism rhetoric basically cost the GOP all the seats that were suburban and close in 2016.
All thats left to really take is basically
Katko Fitz Hurd  Bacon and 3-4 seats in texas with napping incumbents and weak dem challengers. They really should have saw what was happening to Culberson.

Dems did really sweep the table, but there are some seats left behind.

NY24, NY02/NY01 if retirement
PA01, PA10 & PA16 in a good year
GA07
IL13
MO02 in a good year
NE02
TX02, TX10, TX21, TX22, TX24, TX31
CA21 if it fails to flip
WA03 in a good year

Crenshaw underperformed and only took 52% of the vote. I feel like we could unseat him in 2020 if the GOP's suburban collapse continues.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

NE-02 is now down to a 51.0-49.0 Bacon win. Along with TX-23 (and maybe CA-21) another black eye for the moronic Dems that triaged this race because MUH weak candidate Kara Eastman and MUH unbeatable titan Don Bacon.

I know. So stupid.

[OneJ]

The great thing about this is that we have another 10 or 20 seats that still appear reachable.

eh not really
Trumps nationalism rhetoric basically cost the GOP all the seats that were suburban and close in 2016.
All thats left to really take is basically
Katko Fitz Hurd  Bacon and 3-4 seats in texas with napping incumbents and weak dem challengers. They really should have saw what was happening to Culberson.

Dems did really sweep the table, but there are some seats left behind.

NY24, NY02/NY01 if retirement
PA01, PA10 & PA16 in a good year
GA07
IL13
MO02 in a good year
NE02
TX10, TX21, TX22, TX24, TX31
CA21 if it fails to flip
WA03 in a good year

Yep. I’d say CA-50 could be added to that list along with CA-21 depending on how that district goes.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

NE-02 is now down to a 51.0-49.0 Bacon win. Along with TX-23 (and maybe CA-21) another black eye for the moronic Dems that triaged this race because MUH weak candidate Kara Eastman and MUH unbeatable titan Don Bacon.

Speaking of moronic DCCC decisions, IL-13. Why exactly did we NOT target Davis? That race just sat at Lean R the entire cycle despite it being a Trump +5 or so district with a completely unremarkable incumbent. Unsurprisingly, Londrigan lost by around a point with minimal support.

IIRC, the DCCC did start targeting IL-13 and IL-14 (good call on their part btw, I don’t think IL-14 was on most people’s radar until pretty late in the game) shortly after the IL primaries although I could be mistaken.  Either way, one also has to give them credit for the good stuff they did like their handling of the CA jungle primaries (we didn’t get boxed out in any competitive races and they brokered a truce in CA-39 between Thorburn and Cisneros), unseating Curbelo (the ads definitely made a big difference here), recruiting some strong candidates* in seats that otherwise would’ve likely been lost/not been competitive due to either a weak nominee or gone uncontested, finding someone (however flawed) to run against Valadao instead of letting him run unopposed (which also may’ve saved Josh Harder since he arguably only avoided getting boxed out in the jungle primary b/c Cox switched races).  While they definitely made some mistakes (*cough* Donna Shalala *cough*), overall I’m pretty satisfied with D-trip’s performance this cycle.

*Ex: Tom Malinowski, the woman from NM-2 (not gonna even try and spell her name), Dean Phillips (I remember when the DCCC had to really work to convince someone credible to run against unbeatable titan Erik Paulson ), Anthony Brindisi, Ben McAdams, Ron DiNiccola (almost won), Elaine Lauria, Clarke Tucker (came pretty close), Paul Davis (lost by less than 1% in KS-2), Branden Kelly (we made the Republicans compete in IL-12), Dan Feehan (barely lost, I think we can retake this seat in 2020 with Trump on the ballot and since Hagedorn has all the makings of a really weak incumbent), etc.

NE-02 is now down to a 51.0-49.0 Bacon win. Along with TX-23 (and maybe CA-21) another black eye for the moronic Dems that triaged this race because MUH weak candidate Kara Eastman and MUH unbeatable titan Don Bacon.

Yeah, I really got annoyed when they triaged Eastman to give money to Axne in Iowa. Turns out Axne needed it (only won by like, what, 2?) but the fact that Eastman also lost by only 2 with way less help is incredibly frustrating. That was a winnable race.

So maybe Ashford would’ve won after all

The great thing about this is that we have another 10 or 20 seats that still appear reachable.

I’d say more than that; just off the top of my head, I think the following incumbents (in no particular order) could realistically be vulnerable

Lee Zeldin
Peter King
John Katko
Tom Reed
Mike Kelly
Brian Fitzpatrick
Scott Perry
Dever Riggleman
Ted Budd
George Holding
Mark Harris
Rob Woodall
Vern Buchanan
Brian Mast
Will Hurd
Kenny Merchant
Chip Roy
John Carter
French Hill
Andy Barr
Steve Chabot
Troy Balderson
David Joyce (need a real A-lister though)
Justin Amash
Tim Wahlberg
Fred Upton
Rodney Davis
Steve Watkins (if Paul Davis runs again)
Don Bacon
Jim Hagedorn
Pete Stauber (Need a real A-lister)
Greg Gianforte
Jamie Herrera-Beutler
David Valadao (if he wins)

So that’s like 30 or so seats just off the top of my head

[lfromnj]

The great thing about this is that we have another 10 or 20 seats that still appear reachable.

eh not really
Trumps nationalism rhetoric basically cost the GOP all the seats that were suburban and close in 2016.
All thats left to really take is basically
Katko Fitz Hurd  Bacon and 3-4 seats in texas with napping incumbents and weak dem challengers. They really should have saw what was happening to Culberson.

Dems did really sweep the table, but there are some seats left behind.

NY24, NY02/NY01 if retirement
PA01, PA10 & PA16 in a good year
GA07
IL13
MO02 in a good year
NE02
TX10, TX21, TX22, TX24, TX31
CA21 if it fails to flip
WA03 in a good year

Yep. I’d say CA-50 could be added to that list along with CA-21 depending on how that district goes.

nah all the losing GOP members now run to the 50th like vultures to get Hunters seat.

[windjammer]

NE-02 is now down to a 51.0-49.0 Bacon win. Along with TX-23 (and maybe CA-21) another black eye for the moronic Dems that triaged this race because MUH weak candidate Kara Eastman and MUH unbeatable titan Don Bacon.

Speaking of moronic DCCC decisions, IL-13. Why exactly did we NOT target Davis? That race just sat at Lean R the entire cycle despite it being a Trump +5 or so district with a completely unremarkable incumbent. Unsurprisingly, Londrigan lost by around a point with minimal support.

IIRC, the DCCC did start targeting IL-13 and IL-14 (good call on their part btw, I don’t think IL-14 was on most people’s radar until pretty late in the game) shortly after the IL primaries although I could be mistaken.  Either way, one also has to give them credit for the good stuff they did like their handling of the CA jungle primaries (we didn’t get boxed out in any competitive races and they brokered a truce in CA-39 between Thorburn and Cisneros), unseating Curbelo (the ads definitely made a big difference here), recruiting some strong candidates* in seats that otherwise would’ve likely been lost/not been competitive due to either a weak nominee or gone uncontested, finding someone (however flawed) to run against Valadao instead of letting him run unopposed (which also may’ve saved Josh Harder since he arguably only avoided getting boxed out in the jungle primary b/c Cox switched races).  While they definitely made some mistakes (*cough* Donna Shalala *cough*), overall I’m pretty satisfied with D-trip’s performance this cycle.

*Ex: Tom Malinowski, the woman from NM-2 (not gonna even try and spell her name), Dean Phillips (I remember when the DCCC had to really work to convince someone credible to run against unbeatable titan Erik Paulson ), Anthony Brindisi, Ben McAdams, Ron DiNiccola (almost won), Elaine Lauria, Clarke Tucker (came pretty close), Paul Davis (lost by less than 1% in KS-2), Branden Kelly (we made the Republicans compete in IL-12), Dan Feehan (barely lost, I think we can retake this seat in 2020 with Trump on the ballot and since Hagedorn has all the makings of a really weak incumbent), etc.

NE-02 is now down to a 51.0-49.0 Bacon win. Along with TX-23 (and maybe CA-21) another black eye for the moronic Dems that triaged this race because MUH weak candidate Kara Eastman and MUH unbeatable titan Don Bacon.

Yeah, I really got annoyed when they triaged Eastman to give money to Axne in Iowa. Turns out Axne needed it (only won by like, what, 2?) but the fact that Eastman also lost by only 2 with way less help is incredibly frustrating. That was a winnable race.

So maybe Ashford would’ve won after all

The great thing about this is that we have another 10 or 20 seats that still appear reachable.

I’d say more than that; just off the top of my head, I think the following incumbents (in no particular order) could realistically be vulnerable

Lee Zeldin
Peter King
John Katko
Tom Reed
Mike Kelly
Brian Fitzpatrick
Scott Perry
Dever Riggleman
Ted Budd
George Holding
Mark Harris
Rob Woodall
Vern Buchanan
Brian Mast
Will Hurd
Kenny Merchant
Chip Roy
John Carter
French Hill
Andy Barr
Steve Chabot
Troy Balderson
David Joyce (need a real A-lister though)
Justin Amash
Tim Wahlberg
Fred Upton
Rodney Davis
Steve Watkins (if Paul Davis runs again)
Don Bacon
Jim Hagedorn
Pete Stauber (Need a real A-lister)
Greg Gianforte
Jamie Herrera-Beutler
David Valadao (if he wins)

So that’s like 30 or so seats just off the top of my head

In my view, it is quite likely the NC congressional map is going to be tossed next turn. So likely 3 pick ups in NC