KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/bryanlowry3/status/1306578663014633472?s=21

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/bryanlowry3/status/1306578663014633472?s=21

Good for Bollier, but I really hope it actually puts her over the edge in the end. In this highly polarized environment, these types of endorsements no longer matter as much.

[Hope For A New Era]

If Bollier won, would her map be identical to Kelly’s? I think she would win but narrowly lose Sedgwick, Crawford, Harvey, and Lyon but get HUGE margins in JoCo, Shawnee, Douglas and Wyandotte  with solid wins in Riley and Leavenworth while improving a fair amount in Latino SW Kansas. 

She has a good chance of holding on to Lyon. Harvey and Sedgwick are tossups, and Crawford is always a coin flip (that county makes no sense - how did Obama win *only* it, Douglas, and Wyandotte in 2008?)

She's going to improve over Kelly in SW Kansas, partly from trends and partly by picking up Orman voters (that was his best area of the state), but a lot of that is going to be canceled out by the fact that that's Marshall's district. That's the one thing that worries me. A big part of Kelly's win was how dramatically she was able to cut the margins in the western part of the state. Bollier really needs to run up the margins in the east. I imagine Johnson County won't be an issue, as she's from there, but I hope she's been running lots of ads in Wichita.

We'll see what 2022 holds, but I think Sebelius maps are unfortunately a thing of the past in Kansas (unless she comes back to run for Senate and we try to turn Kansas into another Montana).

[indietraveler]

If Bollier won, would her map be identical to Kelly’s? I think she would win but narrowly lose Sedgwick, Crawford, Harvey, and Lyon but get HUGE margins in JoCo, Shawnee, Douglas and Wyandotte  with solid wins in Riley and Leavenworth while improving a fair amount in Latino SW Kansas. 

She has a good chance of holding on to Lyon. Harvey and Sedgwick are tossups, and Crawford is always a coin flip (that county makes no sense - how did Obama win *only* it, Douglas, and Wyandotte in 2008?)

She's going to improve over Kelly in SW Kansas, partly from trends and partly by picking up Orman voters (that was his best area of the state), but a lot of that is going to be canceled out by the fact that that's Marshall's district. That's the one thing that worries me. A big part of Kelly's win was how dramatically she was able to cut the margins in the western part of the state. Bollier really needs to run up the margins in the east. I imagine Johnson County won't be an issue, as she's from there, but I hope she's been running lots of ads in Wichita.

We'll see what 2022 holds, but I think Sebelius maps are unfortunately a thing of the past in Kansas (unless she comes back to run for Senate and we try to turn Kansas into another Montana).

Crawford has PSU. Not huge, but a sizeable portion of the counties population considering how rural it is. In comparison to the surrounding counties it'll probably always have a higher D floor with perhaps more persuadable voters.

[Canis]

She's getting a lot of moderate Rep endorsements but not as much as Laura Kelly

[smoltchanov]

She's getting a lot of moderate Rep endorsements but not as much as Laura Kelly

Because she runs not against lunatic idiot Kobach, but - against slightly more sane Marshall...

[WD]

This is obviously still a very competitive race, but of all the red state Democratic challengers, is it fair to assume that Bollier will be hurt most by RBG's death?

I think we should wait until polling is done before making any assumptions but yeah, this is the most likely.

[Woody]

This is obviously still a very competitive race, but of all the red state Democratic challengers, is it fair to assume that Bollier will be hurt most by RBG's death?

Yeah, this race is Safe R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Be weary of polling firms when they stop polling competetive races, every polling firm have stopped polling all but AZ, CO, GA, ME, and NC. SC can be won due to the fact it's a Carolina. Ds are expected to have a 50 to 53 shrunken majority

[SnowLabrador]

Any chance Bollier had is probably gone now. Ditto with Bullock and Greenfield.

[swf541]

Any chance Bollier had is probably gone now. Ditto with Bullock and Greenfield.

I doubt it, ep with Bullock, dems did win the Montana senate race in 2018 after all.

And i think people are heavily mis-interpreting the impact (And reasoning thereof) of the Kavanaugh hearings.

[Pollster]

Now that voters have been reminded that the Supreme Court exists, Marshall will win by Moran’s 2010 margin. Johnson County is safe R.

[KaiserDave]

Atlas is full of (literal sense) reactionary lunatics

[Alcibiades]

If Bollier won, would her map be identical to Kelly’s? I think she would win but narrowly lose Sedgwick, Crawford, Harvey, and Lyon but get HUGE margins in JoCo, Shawnee, Douglas and Wyandotte  with solid wins in Riley and Leavenworth while improving a fair amount in Latino SW Kansas. 

She has a good chance of holding on to Lyon. Harvey and Sedgwick are tossups, and Crawford is always a coin flip (that county makes no sense - how did Obama win *only* it, Douglas, and Wyandotte in 2008?)

She's going to improve over Kelly in SW Kansas, partly from trends and partly by picking up Orman voters (that was his best area of the state), but a lot of that is going to be canceled out by the fact that that's Marshall's district. That's the one thing that worries me. A big part of Kelly's win was how dramatically she was able to cut the margins in the western part of the state. Bollier really needs to run up the margins in the east. I imagine Johnson County won't be an issue, as she's from there, but I hope she's been running lots of ads in Wichita.

We'll see what 2022 holds, but I think Sebelius maps are unfortunately a thing of the past in Kansas (unless she comes back to run for Senate and we try to turn Kansas into another Montana).

Crawford has PSU. Not huge, but a sizeable portion of the counties population considering how rural it is. In comparison to the surrounding counties it'll probably always have a higher D floor with perhaps more persuadable voters.

It was also traditionally Democratic because of mining and a large whit ethnic population who worked in the mines (it was known as the “Little Balkans”). I wonder if that still gives Dems a boost here, along with the university? I reckon it probably still does as they need WWC voters as well as students/academics to win it outright, as they did in 2018 and 2008.

[Pielover]

Now that voters have been reminded that the Supreme Court exists, Marshall will win by Moran’s 2010 margin. Johnson County is safe R.

Safe R? As someone who actually lives in Johnson County and knows Johnson County, it is definitely not Safe R. JoCo does not equal the rest of Kansas

[Gracile]

Now that voters have been reminded that the Supreme Court exists, Marshall will win by Moran’s 2010 margin. Johnson County is safe R.

Safe R? As someone who actually lives in Johnson County and knows Johnson County, it is definitely not Safe R. JoCo does not equal the rest of Kansas

He's being sarcastic.

[tmthforu94]

This helps Marshall for certain and his chances of winning are pretty high now. Johnson County won't be voting Democratic, though, it's too far gone for now.

[S019]

Hot-take, this won't hurt Bollier's chances much, she can just say something like a nominee should be considered, but give a non-answer on whether a vote should occur, and then more back to her kitchen-table issue oriented campaign.

[Hope For A New Era]

This is obviously still a very competitive race, but of all the red state Democratic challengers, is it fair to assume that Bollier will be hurt most by RBG's death?

Supposedly Kansas has a 50/50 split on abortion. If that's true, it won't affect the race at all.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This helps Marshall for certain and his chances of winning are pretty high now. Johnson County won't be voting Democratic, though, it's too far gone for now.

You mean Johnson County won't be voting Republican, right?

[SnowLabrador]

Safe R, nothing to see here.

[Jay 🏳️‍⚧️]

This is obviously still a very competitive race, but of all the red state Democratic challengers, is it fair to assume that Bollier will be hurt most by RBG's death?

Supposedly Kansas has a 50/50 split on abortion. If that's true, it won't affect the race at all.

According to this Pew Study, it's 49% that think abortion should be legal in all or most cases, and 49% thinking it should be illegal in all or most cases

[Pollster]

This is obviously still a very competitive race, but of all the red state Democratic challengers, is it fair to assume that Bollier will be hurt most by RBG's death?

Supposedly Kansas has a 50/50 split on abortion. If that's true, it won't affect the race at all.

According to this Pew Study, it's 49% that think abortion should be legal in all or most cases, and 49% thinking it should be illegal in all or most cases

This (very good) Pew Study is from 2014. We pulled numbers out of the state in 2018 showing a modest lead for legal in all/most cases, tracking closely with the state's declining religiosity. The question hasn't factored into any of our Bollier/Marshall work yet, though I suspect that changes now.

[wbrocks67]

Safe R, nothing to see here.

sure jan.

[SnowLabrador]

Safe R, nothing to see here.

sure jan.

It's Lucas, thank you very much.