KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[Upstater]

The KSGOP chair sent letters to Wagle and Lindstrom asking them to withdraw.

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1253404995946496003?s=20

Watch this backfire spectacularly against the KSGOP and Kobach ends up winning.

If they want Wagle and Lindstrom to withdraw in order to stop Kobach from being the nominee, then I think it's pretty clear that they favor Marshall. No need to try and deny it.

I know that the KSGOP is trying to favor Marshall with this move, but this could anger undecided voters who might vote for Kobach instead of Marshall.

[tmthforu94]

It might receive minor backlash, but I don’t think this will be a factor by the time August rolls around. The benefit of not having them on the ballot outweighs and negative effect this could have short-term.

[Frenchrepublican]

It might receive minor backlash, but I don’t think this will be a factor by the time August rolls around. The benefit of not having them on the ballot outweighs and negative effect this could have short-term.

Yeah, but it's clear Trump will have to open fire on Kobach it we want to make sure that this idiot doesn't end up being our candidate.

[tmthforu94]

Kobach called on Marshall to condemn the GOP Chair’s actions, Marshall had a feisty response:https://twitter.com/RogerMarshallMD/status/1253774218514386951?s=20

[tmthforu94]

Bob Hamilton's announcement video, for those interested. A Plumber, not a Politician. Could resonate well with KSGOP voters!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=50&v=AwQ_oclT610&feature=emb_logo

[Pericles]

Bob Hamilton's announcement video, for those interested. A Plumber, not a Politician. Could resonate well with KSGOP voters!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=50&v=AwQ_oclT610&feature=emb_logo

That guy has a lot of kids, wow.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Bob Hamilton's announcement video, for those interested. A Plumber, not a Politician. Could resonate well with KSGOP voters!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=50&v=AwQ_oclT610&feature=emb_logo

The more he takes away from Marshall the better

[Frenchrepublican]

Bob Hamilton's announcement video, for those interested. A Plumber, not a Politician. Could resonate well with KSGOP voters!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=50&v=AwQ_oclT610&feature=emb_logo

Considering you're from KS, who do you think he will hurt the most ? Kobach ?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gary Johnson had the anti Hilary sentiment in 2016, that's why third parties didnt perform good in 2018. He will have little impact

[wbrocks67]

Why are people assuming Kobach won't win the primary?

[SnowLabrador]

Why are people assuming Kobach won't win the primary?

Because he's barely raising any money, and Republicans aren't stupid enough to nominate him again.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Kobach called on Marshall to condemn the GOP Chair’s actions, Marshall had a feisty response:https://twitter.com/RogerMarshallMD/status/1253774218514386951?s=20

I want Kobach to win the primary so he can lose again in the general, but man this is freaking awesome.

[tmthforu94]

Gary Johnson had the anti Hilary sentiment in 2016, that's why third parties didnt perform good in 2018. He will have little impact

He isn’t third party. He’s running in the GOP primary.

Bob Hamilton's announcement video, for those interested. A Plumber, not a Politician. Could resonate well with KSGOP voters!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=50&v=AwQ_oclT610&feature=emb_logo

Considering you're from KS, who do you think he will hurt the most ? Kobach ?

Kobach is better known in this area but i think his support is pretty locked in at 35-40%. I just don’t see how he gains much more. So I think Hamilton would take more from Marshall.

Also, Democrats - I would be cautious rooting too hard for Kobach. This is a presidential year for a federal election, I think it is very reasonable that Kobach still wins in November.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Gary Johnson had the anti Hilary sentiment in 2016, that's why third parties didnt perform good in 2018. He will have little impact

He isn’t third party. He’s running in the GOP primary.

Bob Hamilton's announcement video, for those interested. A Plumber, not a Politician. Could resonate well with KSGOP voters!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=50&v=AwQ_oclT610&feature=emb_logo

Considering you're from KS, who do you think he will hurt the most ? Kobach ?

Kobach is better known in this area but i think his support is pretty locked in at 35-40%. I just don’t see how he gains much more. So I think Hamilton would take more from Marshall.

Also, Democrats - I would be cautious rooting too hard for Kobach. This is a presidential year for a federal election, I think it is very reasonable that Kobach still wins in November.

It’s not like there’s any real difference between how Kobach, Hamilton, or Marshall would vote anyway in DC. No downside to rooting for Kobach

[President Johnson]

Kobach called on Marshall to condemn the GOP Chair’s actions, Marshall had a feisty response:https://twitter.com/RogerMarshallMD/status/1253774218514386951?s=20

I want Kobach to win the primary so he can lose again in the general, but man this is freaking awesome.

I'm not sure I want to take the risk nominating KKKobach and having this guy in the senate. Marshall is pretty bad as well, but not that insane. The polling is encouraging, but I wouldn't put too much stock into that at this point.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Kobach called on Marshall to condemn the GOP Chair’s actions, Marshall had a feisty response:https://twitter.com/RogerMarshallMD/status/1253774218514386951?s=20

I want Kobach to win the primary so he can lose again in the general, but man this is freaking awesome.

I'm not sure I want to take the risk nominating KKKobach and having this guy in the senate. Marshall is pretty bad as well, but not that insane. The polling is encouraging, but I wouldn't put too much stock into that at this point.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/roger-marshall/

[tmthforu94]

Kobach called on Marshall to condemn the GOP Chair’s actions, Marshall had a feisty response:https://twitter.com/RogerMarshallMD/status/1253774218514386951?s=20

I want Kobach to win the primary so he can lose again in the general, but man this is freaking awesome.

I'm not sure I want to take the risk nominating KKKobach and having this guy in the senate. Marshall is pretty bad as well, but not that insane. The polling is encouraging, but I wouldn't put too much stock into that at this point.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/roger-marshall/

Being a senator is more than just a voting record. They’re one of our state and national leaders, responsible for constituent services, etc. That’s why I root for who I perceive as the best in each primary (D or R).

[tmthforu94]

https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article242340181.html

Democratic presidential primary turnout has already more than tripled since 2016. Granted, I think this is mostly attributed to a primary vs. caucus, but could be a sign of good things to come for Democrats! August primary numbers also usually aren’t the best indicator since Republicans usually have far more contested races across the state.

[S019]

Marshall and Kobach will vote the same anyways, I'd rather take a 50-50 chance of winning the seat rather than a 100% chance of getting only a slightly less offensive Republican, that's a gamble that I'm willing to take.

[Hope For A New Era]

Bob Hamilton’s ads are almost Brian Kemp-level obnoxious.

I hope he pulls support away from Marshall in a big way. That’s the only good he’ll ever do in politics.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pollsters like Sabato and JHK forecast understating Bullock, Harrison and Bollier's chance, just because Dems will net over 50 seats got a pleasant surprise coming in Nov. Those three are outaising their R opponents

[Coastal Elitist]

Pollsters like Sabato and JHK forecast understating Bullock, Harrison and Bollier's chance, just because Dems will net over 50 seats got a pleasant surprise coming in Nov. Those three are outaising their R opponents

You overestimate Bullock, Harrison, Cunningham and Bollier's chances. They are all running in red states and the only one who might win is Bullock. Remember Bredesen, Heitkamp, Donnelly, McCaskill were all leading in the polls at some point and went on to lose.

[S019]

Pollsters like Sabato and JHK forecast understating Bullock, Harrison and Bollier's chance, just because Dems will net over 50 seats got a pleasant surprise coming in Nov. Those three are outaising their R opponents

You overestimate Bullock, Harrison, Cunningham and Bollier's chances. They are all running in red states and the only one who might win is Bullock. Remember Bredesen, Heitkamp, Donnelly, McCaskill were all leading in the polls at some point and went on to lose.

North Carolina is not a red state, also KS is independent of the national environment, and Pat Roberts only won by 10 in 2014, if this year does end up a blue wave, which could happen with Trump's bad approvals and the economy tanking, Bollier could win facing Kobach, and probably come within high single digits of Marshall. KS is competitive, because Bollier could face an extraordinarily weak candidate, who does not play well with the moderate wing of the KS GOP, don't forget this is the state that sent Republican Senators like Nancy Kassebaum and Sheila Frahm, but in a Kobach/Brownback type GOP, much of that wing could vote for a centrist/center-left moderate Republican.

[President Johnson]

Is there any chance Mike Pompeo makes a last minute entry? The filing deadline is June 1. Trump's reelection chances have decreased over last few months and Pompeo certainly is aware of that. If he doesn't want to end up in the politicial wilderness by January 2021, I'd reconsider my options if I was in his shoes. He would most likely win the nomination and general election.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pompeo isnt running for anything after SOS