KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[Pollster]

Wagle’s official statement implied that Kobach on the ballot poses a threat to the state legislature GOP (which, of course, Wagle has a vested interest in avoiding).

Wouldn’t be surprised if the state party promised her their support for a gubernatorial run against Kelly in exchange for this.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cook on Chuck Todd show has already put MT and IA and the tossups and ME, NC, AZ and CO in the Lean D category

Dems want to get to 51 not 50 since the 2000 compromise when Cheney broke the tie was a power sharing agreement,  in which McConnell will have sway in a tied Senate on Nominations and Bills

[tmthforu94]

Cook on Chuck Todd show has already put MT and IA and the tossups and ME, NC, AZ and CO in the Lean D category

Dems want to get to 51 not 50 since the 2000 compromise when Cheney broke the tie was a power sharing agreement,  in which McConnell will have sway in a tied Senate on Nominations and Bills

This post has literally nothing to do with the Kansas Senate race.

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

Wagle’s official statement implied that Kobach on the ballot poses a threat to the state legislature GOP (which, of course, Wagle has a vested interest in avoiding).

Wouldn’t be surprised if the state party promised her their support for a gubernatorial run against Kelly in exchange for this.

I would LOVE to see Kelly wipe the floor with Wagle in 2022.

[Lognog]

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1266091412552142848

Hopefully this doesn't mean that Pompeo is getting in (the filing deadline is Monday), making her think her candidacy was hopeless.

isnt a bit late for him to jump in?

also wouldn't he be hurt by all the corruption investigations?

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1266091412552142848

Hopefully this doesn't mean that Pompeo is getting in (the filing deadline is Monday), making her think her candidacy was hopeless.

isnt a bit late for him to jump in?

also wouldn't he be hurt by all the corruption investigations?

By definition, it's not too late until next Tuesday, & he'd probably clear the establishment field.

As for being hurt by corruption investigations, the (R) next to his name will negate that.

[Oryxslayer]

Cook on Chuck Todd show has already put MT and IA and the tossups and ME, NC, AZ and CO in the Lean D category

Dems want to get to 51 not 50 since the 2000 compromise when Cheney broke the tie was a power sharing agreement,  in which McConnell will have sway in a tied Senate on Nominations and Bills

This post has literally nothing to do with the Kansas Senate race.

I can't believe there are people on this forum that STILL do not have this guy on ignore. His posts don't add anything to the discussion, so you don't even lose anything by whiting him out.

[Coldstream]

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1266091412552142848

Hopefully this doesn't mean that Pompeo is getting in (the filing deadline is Monday), making her think her candidacy was hopeless.

isnt a bit late for him to jump in?

also wouldn't he be hurt by all the corruption investigations?

By definition, it's not too late until next Tuesday, & he'd probably clear the establishment field.

As for being hurt by corruption investigations, the (R) next to his name will negate that.

Would he necessarily clear the field? Unless it was somehow brokered in a way that Marshall could have the field cleared for his congressional race I’m not sure what would be in it for him to drop out at this late stage. I’m pretty sure he’d still win the nomination but I don’t think it’d just be him against Kobach.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1266091412552142848

Hopefully this doesn't mean that Pompeo is getting in (the filing deadline is Monday), making her think her candidacy was hopeless.

isnt a bit late for him to jump in?

also wouldn't he be hurt by all the corruption investigations?

By definition, it's not too late until next Tuesday, & he'd probably clear the establishment field.

As for being hurt by corruption investigations, the (R) next to his name will negate that.

Would he necessarily clear the field? Unless it was somehow brokered in a way that Marshall could have the field cleared for his congressional race I’m not sure what would be in it for him to drop out at this late stage. I’m pretty sure he’d still win the nomination but I don’t think it’d just be him against Kobach.

This would presumably be the pre-requisite for Pompeo actually entering the Senate race, yes. If Marshall's congressional race can't be cleared, then the Senate field would presumably just be cleared for Marshall (rather than Pompeo) to go one-on-one with Kobach.

[tmthforu94]

Cook on Chuck Todd show has already put MT and IA and the tossups and ME, NC, AZ and CO in the Lean D category

Dems want to get to 51 not 50 since the 2000 compromise when Cheney broke the tie was a power sharing agreement,  in which McConnell will have sway in a tied Senate on Nominations and Bills

This post has literally nothing to do with the Kansas Senate race.

I can't believe there are people on this forum that STILL do not have this guy on ignore. His posts don't add anything to the discussion, so you don't even lose anything by whiting him out.

You're right, just did it.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Cook on Chuck Todd show has already put MT and IA and the tossups and ME, NC, AZ and CO in the Lean D category

Dems want to get to 51 not 50 since the 2000 compromise when Cheney broke the tie was a power sharing agreement,  in which McConnell will have sway in a tied Senate on Nominations and Bills

This post has literally nothing to do with the Kansas Senate race.

I can't believe there are people on this forum that STILL do not have this guy on ignore. His posts don't add anything to the discussion, so you don't even lose anything by whiting him out.

You're right, just did it.

I wish everyone else followed your example.

[Calthrina950]

Cook on Chuck Todd show has already put MT and IA and the tossups and ME, NC, AZ and CO in the Lean D category

Dems want to get to 51 not 50 since the 2000 compromise when Cheney broke the tie was a power sharing agreement,  in which McConnell will have sway in a tied Senate on Nominations and Bills

This post has literally nothing to do with the Kansas Senate race.

I can't believe there are people on this forum that STILL do not have this guy on ignore. His posts don't add anything to the discussion, so you don't even lose anything by whiting him out.

You're right, just did it.

I did so a few days ago. It's given me more peace of mind.

[RogueBeaver]

Chamber of Commerce and other anti-Kobach groups will jump in after Monday.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1267502068434112512

[OKbooma]

Marshall is the clear favorite. And if he wins the nomination, this contest is safe R.

[Pollster]

With Wagle and Pompeo not running, none of the GOP candidates have any ties to the Wichita area. Sedgwick County usually votes pretty close to the statewide results, so this is not great news for the party.

Same with Topeka, a much swingier area where the Republican conversation will most likely be dominated by Watkins and La Turner.

Bollier would, of course, be smart to start spending aggressively on advertising in the Wichita and Topeka media markets to introduce herself positively and potentially build up leads in the areas as Kobach and Marshall inevitably go nuclear on each other.

[wbrocks67]

Marshall is the clear favorite. And if he wins the nomination, this contest is safe R.

Safe R? nah

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Marshall is the clear favorite. And if he wins the nomination, this contest is safe R.

Safe R? nah

Likely bordering on safe until we get a bit more polling. Even the Kobach vs Bollier polls have a sample of undecided voters that should (in theory) skew Republican, and the one Marshall vs Bollier poll we have (admittedly an internal) has him up by 11.

[MT Treasurer]

Marshall is the clear favorite. And if he wins the nomination, this contest is safe R.

I don’t buy this at all.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Poll confirms that the 9 point lead was an outlier,  Marshall is statistically tied with Bollier

[tmthforu94]

I don't see a scenario where Marshall loses to Bollier unless Trump just completely collapses. At worst, I expect a margin similar to 2014 - probably like 54-44. Marshall isn't really controversial aside from his excessive loyalty to Trump, but considering Trump will likely win the state by double-digits, that shouldn't be a detriment.

It seems interesting to me in Kansas and across the country how Republicans continue to "out-Trump" each other and talk about what a great ally they'll be...for a President who is significantly down in national polling. I know they're doing it to win the primary, but as a voter, I'd be curious in hearing how they'd approach a Biden administration, since that is appearing more likely. Doubt we'll hear that answer, though.

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1270467557116596226?s=21

[tmthforu94]

Marshall would gain from a Hamilton collapse, I guess his hope is to nip him early so that July can be spent focusing on Kobach squarely.

[Coldstream]

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1270467557116596226?s=21

Hamilton does have Mike Braun 2018 vibes. But I still expect Marshall to win.

[Orser67]

Sabato's Crystal Ball published an article on this race today. Interesting point here: "While much of Bollier’s appeal would seem to be with the kind of suburban voters she represented in the state Senate, she will need to do more to win statewide, especially (it would seem) in the western part of the state."

Also, TIL that KS is roughly tied with UT for the red state with the highest college-educated percentage.