🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

These polls are insane. Never thought my party would get 40% anywhere anymore. I hope MV gets a trafficlight coalition and no longer SPD-CDU. Kinda surprising the Greens are so weak there.

It will be interesting to watch if MV and Berlin both go for the SPD; Manuela Schwesig and Franziska Giffey will definitely play an even bigger role in the party and national politics. Both are pragmatic women in their mid 40s with experience and proven ability to win. Both could very well be chancellor material in the future. I like both, though slightly prefer Giffey. Seems like her doctorate issue hasn't damaged her.

Doubtful. FDP MV is really critical of Schwesig's comparatively strict Covid measures, additionally FDP and Greens are miles apart from each other. Last week, the Green candidate on the 2nd spot for the MV federal list was caught destroying CDU and FDP posters, the two parties are highly unlikely to cooperate in a government. R2G seems more probable, although I wouldn't wonder if Schwesig continued to work with a weakened CDU. She could've switched from Red-Black to Red-Red when she assumed office, but didn't.

I am more skeptical about Giffey, she isn't really popular in Berlin, just less unpopular than the others and universally known unlike the other candidates. Federal coattails will likely play a large role in her presumptive win, I doubt it has much to do with her. Considering her poor approvals, the Ph.D. story definitely affected her image.

Hugh, weird. I always had the impression of Schwesig being relatively lax on covid measures. Or maybe I got a wrong impression because Schwesig was very vocal about keeping schools open and inner-state tourism...

[Astatine]

The local elections in Lower Saxony had a turnout of 44.0 % at 4:30 pm (2016: 44.3 %), but as far as I know, postal ballots are excluded from this calculation. In 2016, the total turnout was 55.6 % (2011: 52.5 %, 2006: 51.7 %), so we might see a continuation of the trend of increasing voter participation.

Polls have just closed - The local elections here might be an indication of how the federal race stands, although local factors will still play a dominant role of course. The big question is whether the CDU can retain its position as largest party.

2016 result:

CDU: 34.3 %
SPD:: 31.2 %
Greens: 10.9 %
AfD: 7.9 %
Free Voters/Independents: 6.0 %
FDP: 4.8 %
Linke: 3.3 %

Note that the number for the Free Voters includes several local parties and organizations that are not incorporated within the FW party itself.

[Astatine]

Current Infratest dimap trend:

CDU: 32.0 % (-2.3)
SPD:: 30.0 % (-1.2)
Greens: 15.0 % (+4.1)
FDP: 6.5 % (+1.7)
AfD: 5.0 % (-2.9)
Linke: 3.0 % (-0.3)
Others/FW/Ind.: 8.5 % (+0.9)

[Astatine]

Final result of Lower Saxony's local elections:

CDU: 31.7 % (-2.6)
SPD: 30.0 % (-1.2)
Greens: 15.9 % (+5.0)
FDP: 6.5 % (+1.7)
AfD: 4.6 % (-3.3)
Linke: 2.8 % (-0.5)
Others/FW/Ind.: 8.6 % (+0.9)

Turnout: 57.1 % (+1.5)

Not too meaningful, but my takes:

- The result proves that the downfall of the CDU is limited to the federal level and states where the Christian Democrats are not in power. Voters are still very much open to ticket splitting and strongly differentiate between local and statewide and federal level. That should be kept in mind for the next state elections with CDU incumbents in 2022 (Saarland, Schleswig-Holstein, NRW), especially the former two. The CDU can still win in spite of difficult circumstances.
- Turnout has increased for the third time in a row - And the AfD was not able to benefit from that at all, contrary to the election trends we have seen since 2016.
- In fact, this was a brutal result for AfD, which lost 40 % of its voter base. In 2016, the party rode on the wave of the migration crisis, but seems like its candidates are struggling to perform well on local level (there are numerous reports of local AfD representatives not showing up to council meeting, refusing to work within committees etc.). I'm still not convinced the AfD will disappear in the West, but the party is likely to have reached its peak in 2016 and has been stagnating/declining ever since.
- The weak result of Linke indicates that the party will have trouble to re-enter the state parliament in the state elections next year.
- Overall, Greens and FDP achieved their best respectively second best local election results in a long time (for the Greens in history). Not the worst position for next years' elections.

[Astatine]

Saxony-Anhalt's Germany coalition has had a bumpy start: CDU, SPD and FDP have a clear majority of 56/97 seats in the state legislature, nevertheless, his re-election to the position of the Minister-President failed in the first ballot, where he received 48 votes only. In the second ballot, he eventually received a majority of 53/97 votes.

I guess that explains well why he was so reluctant to form a CDU/SPD coalition - Such a narrow majority doesn't seem to work that well in a state party that isn't as disciplined. As the ballots were secret, we don't know who the defectors where, but past statements of CDU deputies and their flirts with a cooperation with the AfD point towards them.

Btw, in 2016, Haseloff needed a second ballot to get elected as well.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Meanwhile in AfD: the head of the Berlin branch apparently thinks Berlin and Warsaw should jointly host the Olympics... in 2036. I have some doubts as to the viability of this proposal.

[President Johnson]

Meanwhile in AfD: the head of the Berlin branch apparently thinks Berlin and Warsaw should jointly host the Olympics... in 2036. I have some doubts as to the viability of this proposal.

Lmao, they're not even trying to hide anymore, aren't they? It's a disgrace this party has as much support as it does.

[Хahar 🤔]

Saxony-Anhalt's Germany coalition has had a bumpy start: CDU, SPD and FDP have a clear majority of 56/97 seats in the state legislature, nevertheless, his re-election to the position of the Minister-President failed in the first ballot, where he received 48 votes only. In the second ballot, he eventually received a majority of 53/97 votes.

I don't understand the logic behind the balloting for chancellor and minister-president being secret. In the past this has quite literally led to the Stasi being able to bribe legislators to achieve their preferred result. Has there ever been any interest in changing this feature of the German system?

[Astatine]

Saxony-Anhalt's Germany coalition has had a bumpy start: CDU, SPD and FDP have a clear majority of 56/97 seats in the state legislature, nevertheless, his re-election to the position of the Minister-President failed in the first ballot, where he received 48 votes only. In the second ballot, he eventually received a majority of 53/97 votes.

I don't understand the logic behind the balloting for chancellor and minister-president being secret. In the past this has quite literally led to the Stasi being able to bribe legislators to achieve their preferred result. Has there ever been any interest in changing this feature of the German system?

Well, in the prior past, open ballots led to Reichstag members who opposed the Enabling Act of 1933 being persecuted. At least, this is the background thought behind secret ballots.

But I agree with your point, this rule just doesn't feel "right" anymore and out of time. The free conscience to which representatives are pledged wouldn't be restricted by making ballots open.

After the Thuringia debacle last year, there was some discussion about that matter, but it's not really an issue as of now. I guess it is gonna be kept as some sort of "political tradition" for the time being.

[Astatine]

New state polls:

BERLIN

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1438797716918784004

M-V

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1438795768874340353
https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1438790897089581060

Greens and Liberals are in dangerous territory in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, especially the FDP has to hope that its current bleeding to the CDU on federal level is limited to the Bundestag elections.

The Berlin margin surprises me a bit - it could either be an outlier, or Giffey really f###ing things up with her flirts with a SPD/CDU/FDP coalition, angering many among the base.

[President Johnson]

Another Berlin poll. The previous one with SPD and Greens nearly tied was probably an outlier. I hope Giffey will form a trafficlight coalition.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1438898537295712265


SPD headed for a landslide in MV:

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1438900196402995214

[Astatine]

Neither Greens nor FDP would want a traffic light coalition in Berlin.

The 3 % for the Animal Protection Party might seem surprising first, but the final result could go either way for the party. In 2011, the Pirate Party had an unexpected surge shortly ahead of the state elections and went on the enter the state legislature. I wouldn't be sure whether the Animal Protection Party does that.

I suspect its high result is based on a form of response bias. There is a good chunk of voters who are either apolitical or very environmentalist to whom animal protection is a major issue, and if a party that represents exactly that is listed in the poll, they might opt for it (while the Pirate surge was more of a grassroots movement). I would rather expect "Die PARTEI" to perform well in Berlin, I could easily see the party getting 3-4 %.

[Astatine]

Turnout in Berlin is stagnant compared to 2017, but postal ballots are excluded from this calculation:

12 am (2017): 27.2 %
12 am (2021): 27.4 %

No turnout data for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern so far.

[Astatine]

God, Berlin keeps doing Berlin things.

In at least 4 voting stations, turnout is that high that the voting stations ran out of ballots, but because a fcking Marathon (!!??!) takes place on election day, new ballots seem to be arriving very slowly, and queues are getting longer and longer. Waiting times of up to two hours or so. 

Who on Earth though it's a great idea to let a Marathon take place on election day smh

[Hnv1]

God, Berlin keeps doing Berlin things.

In at least 4 voting stations, turnout is that high that the voting stations ran out of ballots, but because a fcking Marathon (!!??!) takes place on election day, new ballots seem to be arriving very slowly, and queues are getting longer and longer. Waiting times of up to two hours or so. 

Who on Earth though it's a great idea to let a Marathon take place on election day smh

It's sunday in Berlin. They should have a voting station in the bathroom of the Berghain or Sisyphos.

Oi Mann! Hast du Drogen?

Nein, aber möchtest du gern in der Bundestagswahl wählen?

[Astatine]

ZDF exit polls:

Berlin:
SPD 23
Greens 22
CDU 17
Linke 14
FDP 8
AfD 6.5

MV:
SPD 39
AfD 17
CDU 14
Linke 10
Greens 6.5
FDP 6

[Diouf]

ARD prognosis had Greens as the biggest party in Berlin on 23.5%, ahead of SPD on 21.5%

[xelas81]

Any exit polling regarding Berlin housing expropriation referendum?

[Astatine]

New MV estimate:

SPD 38.2
AfD 17.8
CDU 14.2
Linke 9.9
FDP 6.0
Greens 5.9

Holy moly, if that holds on Greens might not be safe in.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How precisely does the Berlin electoral system operate? How do wards work within that structure?

[Diouf]

Now seems like a SPD victory in Berlin. ARDs hochrechnung has them on 22.7% and Grüne on 21.4%. The two parties only on 64 seats out of 130 seats, so Linke could be necessary again.

[Diouf]

Both SPD and Grüne has fallen throughout the night in the Berlin prognosis. SPD is still clearly ahead of Grüne, but now they are down to 21.8% and 19.4%. That only gives them 60 out of 130 seats so a third partner is certainly needed for those two parties to reach a majority. One of the beneficiaries has been CDU, whom ARD now predict as actually gaining slightly to 18.2%. AfD also loses somewhat less, only down to 7.9%.

[Niemeyerite]

Só, what were the final results?

[President Johnson]

Berlin result:





So Franziska Giffey pretty much has the opportunity to form a government of three parties of her choice. I'm not sure RRG will continue, so either "Kenya" with Greens and CDU or "Germany coalition" with CDU and FDP are possible. The incumbent RRG government has pretty weak approvals and Giffey ran a campaign closer to the center and expressing openess for a Germany coalition.


MV:





Not much to say, it's up to Manuela Schwesig to chose between CDU or Die Linke. I doubt there will be a trafficlight coalition with three partners since two two-party coalitions are possible.


Overall strong results for the SPD, though Berlin was closer in the end than expected. I'm glad both Schwesig and Giffey won and see both as future chancellor material. However, now it's Genosse Olaf's turn!

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Any exit polling regarding Berlin housing expropriation referendum?

56,4% voted for Communism.