Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Roronoa D. Law]

Sounds like Kemp wasn't the only one to steal an election this year.

[Alabama_Indy10]

A couple notes about the undervote:

Nelson has 10,301 fewer votes in Broward County than Gillum
Scott has 10,647 fewer votes in Broward County than DeSantis

Also, Broward County, as far as I can tell, is not reporting any results on their site for the FL-24 race, but they are reporting results for the uncontested FL-20 race. As far as I can tell, there may not have even been a FL-24 slot on the ballot. CNN reports Hastings with 201,000+ votes in the FL-20 race, but 0 votes for Wilson in the FL-24 race.

So do that mean it’s possible that this error is basically a wash in regards to the vote total for each candidate?

[SLA8]

Ok, so apparently the drop-off in votes between Gov race and Sen race isn't limited to one type of voting. Unless my reasoning is bad, I think that does weaken the possibility of people not seeing the Senate race on the ballot and does strengthen the likelihood of poor machine calibration explaining the undervote. I'm presuming that people mailing in their ballots would take their time and notice if they had not voted for the Senate race.

Again, take my info with a grain of salt -- I'm getting it from twitter.

[Pericles]

Ugh-typical Florida.

[RI]

I broke the results down by precinct, and Nelson has 1784 fewer votes than Gillum in Broward's FL-24 while Scott has 489 fewer votes than DeSantis there. That's 1,295 net votes for Nelson. However, that's ignoring the likely legitimate undervote rate we see elsewhere in the county. Accounting for that lowers Nelson's maximum possible net due to a machine error in FL-24 to right about 1,200 votes.

[Thatkat04]

A couple notes about the undervote:

Nelson has 10,301 fewer votes in Broward County than Gillum
Scott has 10,647 fewer votes in Broward County than DeSantis

Also, Broward County, as far as I can tell, is not reporting any results on their site for the FL-24 race, but they are reporting results for the uncontested FL-20 race. As far as I can tell, there may not have even been a FL-24 slot on the ballot. CNN reports Hastings with 201,000+ votes in the FL-20 race, but 0 votes for Wilson in the FL-24 race.

So do that mean it’s possible that this error is basically a wash in regards to the vote total for each candidate?

Possible, although exit polls showed DeSantis doing better with black voters so quite possible Scott just got less votes.

[SLA8]

Ok but apart from those votes, do we know how many outstanding votes are to be counted in Broward -- or other counties?

[KingSweden]

Ok, so apparently the drop-off in votes between Gov race and Sen race isn't limited to one type of voting. Unless my reasoning is bad, I think that does weaken the possibility of people not seeing the Senate race on the ballot and does strengthen the likelihood of poor machine calibration explaining the undervote. I'm presuming that people mailing in their ballots would take their time and notice if they had not voted for the Senate race.

Again, take my info with a grain of salt -- I'm getting it from twitter.

Which of course a hand recount would catch

[KingSweden]

Ok but apart from those votes, do we know how many outstanding votes are to be counted in Broward -- or other counties?

Nobody really knows

[Oryxslayer]

A couple notes about the undervote:

Nelson has 10,301 fewer votes in Broward County than Gillum
Scott has 10,647 fewer votes in Broward County than DeSantis

Also, Broward County, as far as I can tell, is not reporting any results on their site for the FL-24 race, but they are reporting results for the uncontested FL-20 race. As far as I can tell, there may not have even been a FL-24 slot on the ballot. CNN reports Hastings with 201,000+ votes in the FL-20 race, but 0 votes for Wilson in the FL-24 race.

So do that mean it’s possible that this error is basically a wash in regards to the vote total for each candidate?

Or it could be that ~10K voters split tickets Nelson/DeSantis, probably over Red Tide issues. Makes sense considering how DeSantis did on average better then Scott. 10K out of ~690,000-700,000 total votes gives about .15-.2%, roughly the gap between the two. So more likely a majority of the 20K total are Dems.

[wbrocks67]

WTF is actually happening in Broward

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1060654559612289024

[Oryxslayer]

What makes no sense is the number of Nelson-DeSantis voters in Broward. There is no explanation for it

Red Tide. Also, its only .2% of the total county, which is in line with Desantis's outpreformance of Scott statewide. Don't see why there wouldn't be 10K Nelson/DeSantis voters with the present information.

[wesmoorenerd]

WTF is actually happening in Broward

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1060654559612289024

God damn, what is it with Florida and elections being run in a hilariously incompetent manner?

[CellarDoor]

WTF is actually happening in Broward

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1060654559612289024

God damn, what is it with Florida and elections being run in a hilariously incompetent manner?

My guess is that Florida is no different than any other state.  I think if we were to put a microscope on most of our elections we would see more incompetency than we are comfortable with.  Florida is just always so close that we end up looking at it more closely than others.

[Sestak]

WTF is actually happening in Broward

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1060654559612289024

God damn, what is it with Florida and elections being run in a hilariously incompetent manner?

My guess is that Florida is no different than any other state.  I think if we were to put a microscope on most of our elections we would see more incompetency than we are comfortable with.  Florida is just always so close that we end up looking at it more closely than others.

Nah, this is def a Florida thing.

[Stockdale for Veep]

♫ In the Year 2000 ♫

[cg41386]

WTF is actually happening in Broward

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1060654559612289024

God damn, what is it with Florida and elections being run in a hilariously incompetent manner?

My guess is that Florida is no different than any other state.  I think if we were to put a microscope on most of our elections we would see more incompetency than we are comfortable with.  Florida is just always so close that we end up looking at it more closely than others.

Not to get too off topic, but virtually every bizarre news story comes from Florida. There is something in the water down there, and I don’t mean the red tide.

[fldemfunds]

Not to get too off topic, but virtually every bizarre news story comes from Florida. There is something in the water down there, and I don’t mean the red tide.

It's a combination of meth and bath salts.

[CellarDoor]

WTF is actually happening in Broward

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1060654559612289024

God damn, what is it with Florida and elections being run in a hilariously incompetent manner?

My guess is that Florida is no different than any other state.  I think if we were to put a microscope on most of our elections we would see more incompetency than we are comfortable with.  Florida is just always so close that we end up looking at it more closely than others.

Not to get too off topic, but virtually every bizarre news story comes from Florida. There is something in the water down there, and I don’t mean the red tide.

I agree a lot of bizarre things have happened with regard to Florida elections.  I'm just saying that it's also the state with the most close elections so we have it under a microscope.  I don't think Florida has a monopoly on incompetence as it pertains to election record-keeping. 

[Xing]

This whole situation is just peak Florida. At least control of the Senate isn't being decided by this.

[RI]

In other news, we should get an AZ dump in a couple hours.

[7,052,770]

So if the Broward 30,000 thing is real, Nelson proabably wins. If not, Scott probably wins.

[fldemfunds]

https://twitter.com/NewsbySmiley/status/1060571314749128704

Here's a link to one of the ballots that are being scrutinized because of the placement of the senate race.

Given how concentrated the problem seems to be, it seems more probable that it's a machine issue than a design issue.

[Sestak]

https://twitter.com/NewsbySmiley/status/1060571314749128704

Here's a link to one of the ballots that are being scrutinized because of the placement of the senate race.

Ag commish is right next to Senate and got a lot more votes.

No way that's just due to ballot design.

[RI]

Once again, we haven't seen an image of the ballot in FL-24, which is the problem area.