Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Ben.]

Are there many votes still out in places like Mohave and Yavapai? If there are that’s not good news

They haven't been mentioned, the only two counties appear to be Maricopa (400-500k) and Pima (100k). That's according to @brahmresnik at the AZ NBC affiliate.

Still possible there could be more outstanding in other counties, Pima is probably the best bet for the Dems.

[wbrocks67]

Is there going to be a recout in Texas 23? Gina Ortiz Jones trails Will Hurd by just 0.2 or a few hundred votes. Maybe she can still get this?

I sure hope so. It would be amazing to see her win, especially after all the hot takes of Will Hurd somehow being impenetrable

[Webnicz]

I will admit the way AZ counts ballots is weird. The 100% reporting indicates ballots cast on Election Day and the number we have now includes early ballots. They look good for sinema considering the GOP had a 7.5% advantage in both categories.

The remaining ballots are “late earlies” which traditionally favor democrats but I’m not putting bets on anything bc a mcsally win is totally possible but traditionally they slightly favor dems, there are more than 500k from Maricopa and Pima.

Are there many votes still out in places like Mohave and Yavapai? If there are that’s not good news

From what I’ve heard Yavapai and Mohave are essentially done.

[Tintrlvr]

Confirmed that there are 472K votes left to be counted in Maricopa county.

How are the remaining ballots looking for Sinema? Is Maricopa a good county for her?

She currently leads in Maricopa by 1%, but it's way too early to tell if that will extrapolate to the other votes or not

That said, assuming these are late-returned absentees or similar, I would guess that they skew more Democratic than the county as a whole.

[Tintrlvr]

Good news for y'all looking at ME-02. The Ranked Choice vote is likely to go to Golden, polling has shown. If Golden is able to tie, then the 2nd vote should give it to himhopefully.

And then setting up a potential Supreme Court challenge on the validity of ballot initiatives setting rules for federal elections, which I'm sure John Roberts would love to give his opinion on.

Nah, the federal courts have zero desire to wade into that morass.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Should they call the CA-25 race for Hill? She has a comfortable lead and provisionals are only going to expand it.

[Tintrlvr]

FL is still tightening.
Nelson down 30K.
Gillum down 50K.

Just saw. CNN is ahead of NYT here. That was a net of about 4k for Nelson since first thing this morning. Maybe Nelson can pull it out? Seems unlikely to me but I guess not entirely impossible. Gillum is done, though.

[Tender Branson]

Still a crappy result, but not as disgusting as yesterday night ...

At least there were decent gains in the House and among Governors and AZ still has the chance to be won by Sinema.

BTW: Is there enough left for Nelson ? (I guess Gillum is done, which is a shame, because the racist DeSantis will now become Governor. And that fu**er Kemp also won).

[Comrade Funk]

Good news for y'all looking at ME-02. The Ranked Choice vote is likely to go to Golden, polling has shown. If Golden is able to tie, then the 2nd vote should give it to himhopefully.

And then setting up a potential Supreme Court challenge on the validity of ballot initiatives setting rules for federal elections, which I'm sure John Roberts would love to give his opinion on.

John "Racism is dead so let's gut VRA" Roberts.

Look at Georgia, John. You still wanna make that claim?

[Gass3268]

FL is still tightening.
Nelson down 30K.
Gillum down 50K.

Just saw. CNN is ahead of NYT here. That was a net of about 4k for Nelson since first thing this morning. Maybe Nelson can pull it out? Seems unlikely to me but I guess not entirely impossible. Gillum is done, though.

https://twitter.com/AprilDRyan/status/1060196196948566017

Gillum camp thinks that when all votes are counted they will be down 15K, so a gain of 35K. If you extrapolate that to Nelson he's up by 5K.

[Zaybay]

I think you guys are overblowing it on the SC getting rid of Ranked Choice. Many on the Supreme Court have affirmed State Rights with elections, and they have never overturned an election system(as far as I know).

[Storr]

Still a crappy result, but not as disgusting as yesterday night ...

At least there were decent gains in the House and among Governors and AZ still has the chance to be won by Sinema.

BTW: Is there enough left for Nelson ? (I guess Gillum is done, which is a shame, because the racist DeSantis will now become Governor. And that fu**er Kemp also won).

There is enough left numerically since the recount is just that, a recounting of all the votes. It's possible a ton of votes were counted wrong or something else screwy happened, but I doubt anyone has ever gained 30,000 votes in a recount.

[Zaybay]

When will they start counting the AZ ballots?

[wbrocks67]

Why are places like UT-4 still not finished...

[wbrocks67]

Still a crappy result, but not as disgusting as yesterday night ...

At least there were decent gains in the House and among Governors and AZ still has the chance to be won by Sinema.

BTW: Is there enough left for Nelson ? (I guess Gillum is done, which is a shame, because the racist DeSantis will now become Governor. And that fu**er Kemp also won).

There is enough left numerically since the recount is just that, a recounting of all the votes. It's possible a ton of votes were counted wrong or something else screwy happened, but I doubt anyone has ever gained 30,000 votes in a recount.

Well I think some people are saying (if I have this correct) that there are still some ballots left to be counted before the recount..

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I think you guys are overblowing it on the SC getting rid of Ranked Choice. Many on the Supreme Court have affirmed State Rights with elections, and they have never overturned an election system(as far as I know).

Such a case would presumably be making the same argument that was made in the Arizona Redistricting Commission case in 2015.  That was a 5-4 decision with Kennedy siding with the Liberals to affirm the voter initiative creating the commission.  And Kennedy isn't on the Court anymore...

[Zaybay]

I think you guys are overblowing it on the SC getting rid of Ranked Choice. Many on the Supreme Court have affirmed State Rights with elections, and they have never overturned an election system(as far as I know).

Such a case would presumably be making the same argument that was made in the Arizona Redistricting Commission case in 2015.  That was a 5-4 decision with Kennedy siding with the Liberals to affirm the voter initiative creating the commission.  And Kennedy isn't on the Court anymore...

Roberts specifically hates to overturn decisions made by his court.

[Storr]

Still a crappy result, but not as disgusting as yesterday night ...

At least there were decent gains in the House and among Governors and AZ still has the chance to be won by Sinema.

BTW: Is there enough left for Nelson ? (I guess Gillum is done, which is a shame, because the racist DeSantis will now become Governor. And that fu**er Kemp also won).

There is enough left numerically since the recount is just that, a recounting of all the votes. It's possible a ton of votes were counted wrong or something else screwy happened, but I doubt anyone has ever gained 30,000 votes in a recount.

Well I think some people are saying (if I have this correct) that there are still some ballots left to be counted before the recount..

Oh, thanks for the clarification. In that case I don't know. But, votes had popped up in close races before, so it is possible.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

FL is still tightening.
Nelson down 30K.
Gillum down 50K.

Just saw. CNN is ahead of NYT here. That was a net of about 4k for Nelson since first thing this morning. Maybe Nelson can pull it out? Seems unlikely to me but I guess not entirely impossible. Gillum is done, though.

https://twitter.com/AprilDRyan/status/1060196196948566017

Gillum camp thinks that when all votes are counted they will be down 15K, so a gain of 35K. If you extrapolate that to Nelson he's up by 5K.

If this is true, then why did he concede so early?  It always seems to me like candidates are too quick to concede.  There's nothing anti-democratic about just waiting a day to see what happens.

People got so grumpy about Al Gore retracting his concession in 2000, as though the election should be decided by a phone call and not the actual vote count.

[wbrocks67]

CNN now has Tester up 5k votes, 49.1% - 48.0%

[Gass3268]

AP calls it for Tester

https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1060230016993243136

[Zaybay]

CNN now has Tester up 5k votes, 49.1% - 48.0%

Well, that leaves 2 seats in the senate to be decided, FL, and AZ.

[Tender Branson]

CNN now has Tester up 5k votes, 49.1% - 48.0%

Well, that leaves 2 seats in the senate to be decided, FL, and AZ.

Good for Tester.

But AZ takes probably a week or 2 to count all their votes.

And FL could also take a while.

[Tintrlvr]

Should they call the CA-25 race for Hill? She has a comfortable lead and provisionals are only going to expand it.

Yes. All of the CA Dems in the lead right now are going to win. I would bet on Harder winning as well. Porter and Cisneros are going to be close but I think they also win. It's not just provisionals (even if they say 100% reporting). California accepts mail-in ballots *postmarked* by Election Day, so new ballots will continue arriving until Friday or so. And the late ballots always skew very strongly towards the Democrats, enough to make up 2-3 points in margin.

[Sestak]

NYT calls it for Tester.

If this ends up at R +1 after all this, I’ll laugh.