🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[jaymichaud]

Well at least RRG doesn't have the numbers.

[KaiserDave]

Well at least RRG doesn't have the numbers.

Not necessarily

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Any sites with map results? I'm a sucker for maps

Not yet. But the map will begin to be updated in one hour:

https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2021-09/wahlergebnisse-bundestagswahl-2021-wahlkreise-karte-deutschland-live

[Astatine]

Well at least RRG doesn't have the numbers.

Not necessarily

If R2G has a narrow majority only, I doubt SPD and Greens would take that risk.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Lindner is crowing over the FDP's result, from the looks of it.

[Lechasseur]

Updated ARD exit

24.7% Union 155+43 Seats
24.9% SPD 197 Seats
14.8% Green 117
11.3% AfD 89
11.2% FDP 88
5% Linke 40

An another indication of an Americanization of German elections:

Will the 2021 federal election turn into a 2016 US election? 🤔
The SPD might receive the most second votes while the Union could pickup more seats (thanks to overhang and leveling seats for the CSU.)
It would be extremely funny and ironic if the SSW seat (an SPD ally) was going to tip the scale.

I believe that happened in Finland in 1999. IIRC, the Centre Party missed out on forming government by 3 seats because their allies the Christian Democrats gained 3.

[Diouf]

If anyone believed the myth of German like for ordnung, just look at how awful the party leaders are at timing their speeches.

[Lechasseur]

Someone tell Armin that a "Zukunftskoalition" would be one that isn't led by the octagenarian's party lmao.

Also both estimates having die Linke on exactly 5% is quite funny, hedging their bets there

Eh, I'm sure you have a lot of young Union voters as well

[Oryxslayer]

Any sites with map results? I'm a sucker for maps

Not yet. But the map will begin to be updated in one hour:

https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2021-09/wahlergebnisse-bundestagswahl-2021-wahlkreise-karte-deutschland-live

Here's the Govt's national results page for those that want it:

https://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/en/bundestagswahlen/2021/ergebnisse/bund-99.html

[Antonio the Sixth]

Updated ARD exit

24.7% Union 155+43 Seats
24.9% SPD 197 Seats
14.8% Green 117
11.3% AfD 89
11.2% FDP 88
5% Linke 40

An another indication of an Americanization of German elections:

Will the 2021 federal election turn into a 2016 US election? 🤔
The SPD might receive the most second votes while the Union could pickup more seats (thanks to overhang and leveling seats for the CSU.)
It would be extremely funny and ironic if the SSW seat (an SPD ally) was going to tip the scale.

I thought the leveling seats were assigned based on national results? Was the law changed since last time?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Someone tell Armin that a "Zukunftskoalition" would be one that isn't led by the octagenarian's party lmao.

Also both estimates having die Linke on exactly 5% is quite funny, hedging their bets there

I wonder what happens if when the actual votes come out, they come out as 5.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000%. Exactly 5%, neither under nor over. Do they get into the Budestag then?

[TheTide]

Perhaps Merkel's final intervention boosted the CDU/CSU a little bit.

[Astatine]

Updated ARD exit

24.7% Union 155+43 Seats
24.9% SPD 197 Seats
14.8% Green 117
11.3% AfD 89
11.2% FDP 88
5% Linke 40

An another indication of an Americanization of German elections:

Will the 2021 federal election turn into a 2016 US election? 🤔
The SPD might receive the most second votes while the Union could pickup more seats (thanks to overhang and leveling seats for the CSU.)
It would be extremely funny and ironic if the SSW seat (an SPD ally) was going to tip the scale.

I thought the leveling seats were assigned based on national results? Was the law changed since last time?

Yes, there was a slight reform that not every overhang seats gets compensated, which will benefit CSU a lot since they will probably sweep almost all of the seats in Bavaria. Confusing reform though, I don't know anyone who could explain when which seats get compensated.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Updated ARD exit

24.7% Union 155+43 Seats
24.9% SPD 197 Seats
14.8% Green 117
11.3% AfD 89
11.2% FDP 88
5% Linke 40

An another indication of an Americanization of German elections:

Will the 2021 federal election turn into a 2016 US election? 🤔

That would be more like 2000 than 2016. In 2016, Clinton won by a clear margin, whereas in 2000 Gore's margin of victory over Bush was relatively narrow.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Can the FDP leader be the Chancellor in some grand coalition

[KaiserDave]

Can the FDP leader be the Chancellor in some grand coalition

no

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Updated ARD exit

24.7% Union 155+43 Seats
24.9% SPD 197 Seats
14.8% Green 117
11.3% AfD 89
11.2% FDP 88
5% Linke 40

An another indication of an Americanization of German elections:

Will the 2021 federal election turn into a 2016 US election? 🤔
The SPD might receive the most second votes while the Union could pickup more seats (thanks to overhang and leveling seats for the CSU.)
It would be extremely funny and ironic if the SSW seat (an SPD ally) was going to tip the scale.

I thought the leveling seats were assigned based on national results? Was the law changed since last time?

There has been an election reform that made everything even more complicated. The first 3 seats or so are not going to be "leveled" anymore in order to stop the space-like expansion of the Bundestag. On the other hand, the seat shares don't depict the vote share accurately anymore.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Can the FDP leader be the Chancellor in some grand coalition

Would be a total breach of German political culture.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Updated ARD exit

24.7% Union 155+43 Seats
24.9% SPD 197 Seats
14.8% Green 117
11.3% AfD 89
11.2% FDP 88
5% Linke 40

An another indication of an Americanization of German elections:

Will the 2021 federal election turn into a 2016 US election? 🤔
The SPD might receive the most second votes while the Union could pickup more seats (thanks to overhang and leveling seats for the CSU.)
It would be extremely funny and ironic if the SSW seat (an SPD ally) was going to tip the scale.

I thought the leveling seats were assigned based on national results? Was the law changed since last time?

Yes, there was a slight reform that not every overhang seats gets compensated, which will benefit CSU a lot since they will probably sweep almost all of the seats in Bavaria. Confusing reform though, I don't know anyone who could explain when which seats get compensated.

Ughhh, how stupid. I have my problems with the German law but at least the overhang system made it pretty clear how the overall seat distribution would work.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Can the FDP leader be the Chancellor in some grand coalition

Can? Yes.
Will? No.

In Thuringia happened something similar last year, though, with the FDP candidate becoming the minister-president despite only having received 5%.

[Lechasseur]

Can the FDP leader be the Chancellor in some grand coalition

Theoretically? Sure

In practice? Absolutely not. The Chancellor always comes from the largest coalition party

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Can the FDP leader be the Chancellor in some grand coalition

no

Apparently the FDP leader once tried to run as a Chancellor candidate. It was treated with as much seriousness as it deserved.

[Logical]

Updated ZDF exit, its narrowing
SPD 25,6
Union 24,4
Greens 14,7
FDP 11,6
AFD 10,3
LINKE 5

[OSR stands with Israel]

Can the FDP leader be the Chancellor in some grand coalition

Theoretically? Sure

In practice? Absolutely not. The Chancellor always comes from the largest coalition party

What if neither CDU or SPD is able to put together a coalition that has the support of the majority of parliament. Could the FDP come on top as sort of a compromise

[KaiserDave]

Can the FDP leader be the Chancellor in some grand coalition

Theoretically? Sure

In practice? Absolutely not. The Chancellor always comes from the largest coalition party

What if neither CDU or SPD is able to put together a coalition that has the support of the majority of parliament. Could the FDP come on top as sort of a compromise

no