🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[n1240]

Updated ARD exit

24.7% Union 155+43 Seats
24.9% SPD 197 Seats
14.8% Green 117
11.3% AfD 89
11.2% FDP 88
5% Linke 40

An another indication of an Americanization of German elections:

Will the 2021 federal election turn into a 2016 US election? 🤔
The SPD might receive the most second votes while the Union could pickup more seats (thanks to overhang and leveling seats for the CSU.)
It would be extremely funny and ironic if the SSW seat (an SPD ally) was going to tip the scale.

I thought the leveling seats were assigned based on national results? Was the law changed since last time?

Here the Bundeswahlleiter provides an example calculation of how the seats are calculated now using the 2017 results as an example. I've been able to implement it in code but I find it hard to explain still, here's my best attempt to explain it regardless:

First, calculate how many seats each party should get by proportional vote in each state, then assign seats to each state based on this (scaled to 598)
Second, calculate the minimum number of seats a party is entitled to in a state - this is calculated by taking the maximum value of either the number of constituencies they won in a state, or the average value rounded up of the number of constituencies they won in a state and the proportional amount of seats they should receive in a state.
Third, calculate on a federal level, finding a divisor where the number of overhang seats (initially calculated by the cumulative number of excess seats a party won among each state) cumulatively among all parties would be reduced to 3 or less, then add those excess overhang seats to each party's total.

In this case, the seat total can be heavily influenced based on the CSU performance, if they win many more constituencies relative to their second vote percentage, it can skew the Bundestag size upwards greatly.

[KaiserDave]

Updated ZDF exit, its narrowing
SPD 25,6
Union 24,4
Greens 14,7
FDP 11,6
AFD 10,3
LINKE 5

Fake news. I already projected SPD being underestimated.

[DL]

Barring another Groko, does it really matter whether the SPD beats the CDU by 1 seat or loses by 1 seat?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Ughhh, how stupid. I have my problems with the German law but at least the overhang system made it pretty clear how the overall seat distribution would work.

It's all the CSU#s fault. The easiest solution to that "inflation" problem of the Bundestag would be to cut down the number of constituencies.
However, the CSU is willfully obstructive in bringing that forth because they benefit from a huge number of direct mandates.

[brucejoel99]

Can the FDP leader be the Chancellor in some grand coalition

Theoretically? Sure

In practice? Absolutely not. The Chancellor always comes from the largest coalition party

What if neither CDU or SPD is able to put together a coalition that has the support of the majority of parliament. Could the FDP come on top as sort of a compromise

Again: could? Technically in a theoretical sense, sure. Will it, though? Never. An FDP chancellor wouldn't be an acceptable compromise for a majority in the Bundestag.

[VAR]

Can the FDP leader be the Chancellor in some grand coalition

Theoretically? Sure

In practice? Absolutely not. The Chancellor always comes from the largest coalition party

What if neither CDU or SPD is able to put together a coalition that has the support of the majority of parliament. Could the FDP come on top as sort of a compromise

How would the FDP be a "compromise" given they're further to the right of the CDU?

[Oryxslayer]

Updated ARD exit

24.7% Union 155+43 Seats
24.9% SPD 197 Seats
14.8% Green 117
11.3% AfD 89
11.2% FDP 88
5% Linke 40

24.7% Union 154+44 Seats
24.9% SPD 197 Seats
14.6% Green 115
11.7% FDP 92
11.1% AfD 88
5% Linke 39
x% SSW 1

[brucejoel99]

Barring another Groko, does it really matter whether the SPD beats the CDU by 1 seat or loses by 1 seat?

Only in the talking-points sense of which party has the mandate to govern.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Can the FDP leader be the Chancellor in some grand coalition

Theoretically? Sure

In practice? Absolutely not. The Chancellor always comes from the largest coalition party

What if neither CDU or SPD is able to put together a coalition that has the support of the majority of parliament. Could the FDP come on top as sort of a compromise

How would the FDP be a "compromise" given they're further to the right of the CDU?

Arent they more moderate on social issues than CDU

[Hnv1]

Updated ARD exit

24.7% Union 155+43 Seats
24.9% SPD 197 Seats
14.8% Green 117
11.3% AfD 89
11.2% FDP 88
5% Linke 40

24.7% Union 154+44 Seats
24.9% SPD 197 Seats
14.6% Green 115
11.7% FDP 92
11.1% AfD 88
5% Linke 39
x% SSW 1

So it basically boils down to whether Scholz can nail the Greens\alliance to pledge to only join a coalition led by the SPD and pressuring the FDP to join? otherwise with time the green will drift towards a Jamaica set up?

[Astatine]

Shout-out to Allensbach, whose outdated face-to-face polling methodology I had mocked before, but if the current estimates hold, then their ultimate poll was pretty neat (CDU/CSU 25, SPD 26, Greens 16, FDP 10.5, AfD 10, Linke 5).

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

East Germany:

SPD: 23%
AfD: 21% (+0.5%!!)
CDU: 17% (-10.3%!)
Grüne: 11.5%
Linke: 10.5% (-6.8%!!!)
FDP: 9.0%

[brucejoel99]

Updated ARD exit

24.7% Union 155+43 Seats
24.9% SPD 197 Seats
14.8% Green 117
11.3% AfD 89
11.2% FDP 88
5% Linke 40

24.7% Union 154+44 Seats
24.9% SPD 197 Seats
14.6% Green 115
11.7% FDP 92
11.1% AfD 88
5% Linke 39
x% SSW 1

So it basically boils down to whether Scholz can nail the Greens\alliance to pledge to only join a coalition led by the SPD and pressuring the FDP to join? otherwise with time the green will drift towards a Jamaica set up?

Unlikely.

[BigSerg]

Updated ARD exit

24.7% Union 155+43 Seats
24.9% SPD 197 Seats
14.8% Green 117
11.3% AfD 89
11.2% FDP 88
5% Linke 40

An another indication of an Americanization of German elections:

Will the 2021 federal election turn into a 2016 US election? 🤔
The SPD might receive the most second votes while the Union could pickup more seats (thanks to overhang and leveling seats for the CSU.)
It would be extremely funny and ironic if the SSW seat (an SPD ally) was going to tip the scale.

I thought the leveling seats were assigned based on national results? Was the law changed since last time?

Hahahaha, Many users complain about this, but in Canadian elections "The popular vote doesn't matter in a parliamentary system," okay.

[Astatine]

Updated ARD exit

24.7% Union 155+43 Seats
24.9% SPD 197 Seats
14.8% Green 117
11.3% AfD 89
11.2% FDP 88
5% Linke 40

24.7% Union 154+44 Seats
24.9% SPD 197 Seats
14.6% Green 115
11.7% FDP 92
11.1% AfD 88
5% Linke 39
x% SSW 1

So it basically boils down to whether Scholz can nail the Greens\alliance to pledge to only join a coalition led by the SPD and pressuring the FDP to join? otherwise with time the green will drift towards a Jamaica set up?

Unlikely.

Well, the Greens' co-leader Robert Habeck was still open to Jamaica just some minutes ago, as long as the next government is a "climate government".

[urutzizu]

CSU projected winning 44/46 direct mandates in Bavaria. Considerably better than expected, and is not just going to screw up the seat distribution by 3 Seats but also blow up the Bundestag into the high 700s. SPD, FDP and Greens have announced that they are going to cull the direct mandates, if necessary without the CDU/CSU, to 250 from the next election but still completely idiotic situation. Especially from the State and Party that likes to accuse the rest of Germany of wasteful spending and excessive bureaucracy.  

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Barring another Groko, does it really matter whether the SPD beats the CDU by 1 seat or loses by 1 seat?

Only in the talking-points sense of which party has the mandate to govern.

Especially considering Lindner and Kubicki prefer a Jamaica coalition.

[mgop]

as i thought, grand coalition remain, this time with spd prime-minister

[BigSerg]

as i thought, grand coalition remain, this time with spd prime-minister

Why? CSU will have more seats

[Logical]

CSU projected winning 44/46 direct mandates in Bavaria. Considerably better than expected, and is not just going to screw up the seat distribution by 3 Seats but also blow up the Bundestag into the high 700s. SPD, FDP and Greens have announced that they are going to cull the direct mandates, if necessary without the CDU/CSU, to 250 from the next election but still completely idiotic situation. Especially from the State and Party that likes to accuse the rest of Germany of wasteful spending and excessive bureaucracy.  

By 2081 every German citizen is member of the Bundestag, Germany finally achieves direct democracy.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

What if neither CDU or SPD is able to put together a coalition that has the support of the majority of parliament. Could the FDP come on top as sort of a compromise

How would the FDP be a "compromise" given they're further to the right of the CDU?

If OSR's fantasizing had any real basis, it would probably be more likely the Greens would be the "compromise" party. Not that that will happen either, of course, but it is at least more plausible.

[Hnv1]

Updated ARD exit

24.7% Union 155+43 Seats
24.9% SPD 197 Seats
14.8% Green 117
11.3% AfD 89
11.2% FDP 88
5% Linke 40

24.7% Union 154+44 Seats
24.9% SPD 197 Seats
14.6% Green 115
11.7% FDP 92
11.1% AfD 88
5% Linke 39
x% SSW 1

So it basically boils down to whether Scholz can nail the Greens\alliance to pledge to only join a coalition led by the SPD and pressuring the FDP to join? otherwise with time the green will drift towards a Jamaica set up?

Unlikely.

Well, the Greens' co-leader Robert Habeck was still open to Jamaica just some minutes ago, as long as the next government is a "climate government".

Jamaica will definitely be an anti-climax govenment

[soundchaser]

as i thought, grand coalition remain, this time with spd prime-minister

Why? CSU will have more seats

Assuming the CDU get more seats (far from certain), Jamaica seems more likely than a Grand Coalition.

[Astatine]

Hans-Georg Maaßen, the controversial right-wing CDU candidate in South Thuringia, is in third place right now in his district:

https://wahlen.thueringen.de/datenbank/wahl1/wahl.asp?wahlart=BW&wJahr=2021&zeigeErg=WK&wknr=196

Current first vote:
Ulrich (SPD) 31.0 %
Treutler (AfD) 24.0 %
Maaßen (CDU) 23.2 %

He doesn't have a list spot.

Bye Felicia

[Antonio the Sixth]

Updated ARD exit

24.7% Union 155+43 Seats
24.9% SPD 197 Seats
14.8% Green 117
11.3% AfD 89
11.2% FDP 88
5% Linke 40

An another indication of an Americanization of German elections:

Will the 2021 federal election turn into a 2016 US election? 🤔
The SPD might receive the most second votes while the Union could pickup more seats (thanks to overhang and leveling seats for the CSU.)
It would be extremely funny and ironic if the SSW seat (an SPD ally) was going to tip the scale.

I thought the leveling seats were assigned based on national results? Was the law changed since last time?

Hahahaha, Many users complain about this, but in Canadian elections "The popular vote doesn't matter in a parliamentary system," okay.

What?

Pretty sure you didn't see a lot of support for FPP in the Canada thread...