Canadian Election 2019

[T'Chenka]

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.

[T'Chenka]

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.

Yeah tactical voting looks like it'll squeeze the NDP again. It's tragic how they lost in 2015, I wish Mulcair had won that election and the NDP was the major party of the left.

My riding is strictly red or blue most of the time, but in that 2015 election it was really looking like the NDP had a shot. I will sadly be tactical voting myself this time, against Scheer's Conservatives. In my riding the best way to.do so is to vote Liberal. The stakes are too high with the climate crisis for me to spend my vote virtue signalling that I support the NDP in a riding where they will not win (this time).

If the polls start massively shifting away from Trudeau and towards Singh, I will vote NDP. It looks like that won't be happening though.

[T'Chenka]

Scheer had a great performance  and was the winner tonight

He looked good but not great IMO. His climate policy is trash and he didn't give enough specifics on how he would help lower and middle class Canadians. A lot of us up here know that Conservatives saying "we're going to put money in your pocket" means that our services will be cut, and we will be spending that money AND more to get the services we were getting already via taxes before the Conservatives got into power.

[T'Chenka]

Singh has actually been the most disciplined and on-message leader in this election, IMO. I still think he'll be out in two weeks though. Does anyone think there's a possibility he'll find a way to stay on...?

If he has another good debate on Thursday and the NDP get a good number of seats in parliament, I could see it for sure. Polls indicate that Canadians like him now that they're more familiar with him. I could see the NDP lookimg at that and thinking that they can have a head-start with the public in the next election by sticking with Jagmeet.

He's closer to Jack Layton than he is to Mulcair in my eyes. I would prefer to stick with him.

[T'Chenka]

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.

Yeah tactical voting looks like it'll squeeze the NDP again. It's tragic how they lost in 2015, I wish Mulcair had won that election and the NDP was the major party of the left.

My riding is strictly red or blue most of the time, but in that 2015 election it was really looking like the NDP had a shot. I will sadly be tactical voting myself this time, against Scheer's Conservatives. In my riding the best way to.do so is to vote Liberal. The stakes are too high with the climate crisis for me to spend my vote virtue signalling that I support the NDP in a riding where they will not win (this time).

If the polls start massively shifting away from Trudeau and towards Singh, I will vote NDP. It looks like that won't be happening though.

You do realize, your vote isn't going to be the deciding vote in this election, right?

Tactical voting on the level of the individual makes no logical sense.

(1) You have no idea which riding I am in or just how close the polls or results will be between Scheer and Trudeau in my riding. You DON'T KNOW one vote won't count. Ignorant post.

(2) If you haven't figured out, there are likely hundreds or maybe even a thousand plus people in my riding with politics like mine making these same calculations. If we all vote strategically or if none of us vote strategically, it can have a big impact in my riding. Your "one vote doesn't count" argument is a flawed way of thinking. If all of us took your advice and just voted for our preferred party regardless of the situation, we alone as a group could cause a Conservative MP for this riding. Which could be the one MP needed to put Scheer over 50%, or the one MP the Liberal-NDP coalition needed to exceed 50% but now they need to negotiate with the Greens as well to form a government.

[T'Chenka]

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.

Yeah tactical voting looks like it'll squeeze the NDP again. It's tragic how they lost in 2015, I wish Mulcair had won that election and the NDP was the major party of the left.

My riding is strictly red or blue most of the time, but in that 2015 election it was really looking like the NDP had a shot. I will sadly be tactical voting myself this time, against Scheer's Conservatives. In my riding the best way to.do so is to vote Liberal. The stakes are too high with the climate crisis for me to spend my vote virtue signalling that I support the NDP in a riding where they will not win (this time).

If the polls start massively shifting away from Trudeau and towards Singh, I will vote NDP. It looks like that won't be happening though.

You do realize, your vote isn't going to be the deciding vote in this election, right?

Tactical voting on the level of the individual makes no logical sense.

This x1000

Vote your conscience. Imperfect politicians don't deserve your non-decisive vote just because of how they're polling.

My conscience says that a Conservative government making Canadian climate change policy is unacceptable, and not doing my small small part to try to prevent that is a moral duty that I cannot neglect.

[T'Chenka]

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.

Yeah tactical voting looks like it'll squeeze the NDP again. It's tragic how they lost in 2015, I wish Mulcair had won that election and the NDP was the major party of the left.

My riding is strictly red or blue most of the time, but in that 2015 election it was really looking like the NDP had a shot. I will sadly be tactical voting myself this time, against Scheer's Conservatives. In my riding the best way to.do so is to vote Liberal. The stakes are too high with the climate crisis for me to spend my vote virtue signalling that I support the NDP in a riding where they will not win (this time).

If the polls start massively shifting away from Trudeau and towards Singh, I will vote NDP. It looks like that won't be happening though.

You do realize, your vote isn't going to be the deciding vote in this election, right?

Tactical voting on the level of the individual makes no logical sense.

(1) You have no idea which riding I am in or just how close the polls or results will be between Scheer and Trudeau in my riding. You DON'T KNOW one vote won't count. Ignorant post.

(2) If you haven't figured out, there are likely hundreds or maybe even a thousand plus people in my riding with politics like mine making these same calculations. If we all vote strategically or if none of us vote strategically, it can have a big impact in my riding. Your "one vote doesn't count" argument is a flawed way of thinking. If all of us took your advice and just voted for our preferred party regardless of the situation, we alone as a group could cause a Conservative MP for this riding. Which could be the one MP needed to put Scheer over 50%, or the one MP the Liberal-NDP coalition needed to exceed 50% but now they need to negotiate with the Greens as well to form a government.

(1) Doesn't matter what riding you live in. The chance that your vote will be the deciding vote is negligible. You'd have a better chance getting in a car accident on you way to vote. I've studied elections for a long time. I can count on one hand how many elections have been decided by one vote at all levels of government.

(2) An individual vote is an individual vote. A group of people does not equal a monolithic vote group.

If people like you did vote for who they really wanted instead of stopping who they didn't want, the Liberals would tack left to try and get your votes. If you just vote for them anyway, they don't have to make that shift electorally. If no one votes NDP or Green, then there's no incentive for the Liberals to tack left at all.

And I get it, if everyone like you voted their conscience, maybe the Tories would win. Perhaps that would make for a good punishment for Trudeau for abandoning his electoral reform promise. If he went ahead with his promise, we wouldn't be having this argument.

If you can feel comfortable voting for the Liberals, then that's your prerogative. But do not delude yourself in believing you will have the deciding vote. I can guarantee that will not be the case.

The relationship many progressives have with the Liberals borders on a protection racket. They have single handedly eliminated the one policy that would allow for a progressive alternative to the Liberals and Tories, and then have the chutzpah to play up fear of a Tory government if progressives don't forgive their myriad of sins against progressive politics.

Thus, we see progressives voting for Justin the Blackface Pipeline Mogul to defend against Tory racism or climate inaction or something. It's surreal. I genuinely pity the NDP/Greens and their supporters for having to put up with this nonsense.

I tend to agree with a lot of your points here. The problem is that I see this as a high-stakes election where a Scheer government outcome is unacceptable. At this particular point in time, I feel preventing the worst-case scenario is more important than advocating for my beliefs. Normally in most elections, I would (and do) vote NDP.

If I was an American, I would be voting for Biden over Trump if it came down to it, even if Bernie was hypoethetically  running third party but also in this scenario had no path to actually winning the presidency. Sometimes the stakes are just too high to not be tactical and practical IMO.

[T'Chenka]

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.

Yeah tactical voting looks like it'll squeeze the NDP again. It's tragic how they lost in 2015, I wish Mulcair had won that election and the NDP was the major party of the left.

My riding is strictly red or blue most of the time, but in that 2015 election it was really looking like the NDP had a shot. I will sadly be tactical voting myself this time, against Scheer's Conservatives. In my riding the best way to.do so is to vote Liberal. The stakes are too high with the climate crisis for me to spend my vote virtue signalling that I support the NDP in a riding where they will not win (this time).

If the polls start massively shifting away from Trudeau and towards Singh, I will vote NDP. It looks like that won't be happening though.

You do realize, your vote isn't going to be the deciding vote in this election, right?

Tactical voting on the level of the individual makes no logical sense.

(1) You have no idea which riding I am in or just how close the polls or results will be between Scheer and Trudeau in my riding. You DON'T KNOW one vote won't count. Ignorant post.

(2) If you haven't figured out, there are likely hundreds or maybe even a thousand plus people in my riding with politics like mine making these same calculations. If we all vote strategically or if none of us vote strategically, it can have a big impact in my riding. Your "one vote doesn't count" argument is a flawed way of thinking. If all of us took your advice and just voted for our preferred party regardless of the situation, we alone as a group could cause a Conservative MP for this riding. Which could be the one MP needed to put Scheer over 50%, or the one MP the Liberal-NDP coalition needed to exceed 50% but now they need to negotiate with the Greens as well to form a government.

(1) Doesn't matter what riding you live in. The chance that your vote will be the deciding vote is negligible. You'd have a better chance getting in a car accident on you way to vote. I've studied elections for a long time. I can count on one hand how many elections have been decided by one vote at all levels of government.

(2) An individual vote is an individual vote. A group of people does not equal a monolithic vote group.

If people like you did vote for who they really wanted instead of stopping who they didn't want, the Liberals would tack left to try and get your votes. If you just vote for them anyway, they don't have to make that shift electorally. If no one votes NDP or Green, then there's no incentive for the Liberals to tack left at all.

And I get it, if everyone like you voted their conscience, maybe the Tories would win. Perhaps that would make for a good punishment for Trudeau for abandoning his electoral reform promise. If he went ahead with his promise, we wouldn't be having this argument.

If you can feel comfortable voting for the Liberals, then that's your prerogative. But do not delude yourself in believing you will have the deciding vote. I can guarantee that will not be the case.

The relationship many progressives have with the Liberals borders on a protection racket. They have single handedly eliminated the one policy that would allow for a progressive alternative to the Liberals and Tories, and then have the chutzpah to play up fear of a Tory government if progressives don't forgive their myriad of sins against progressive politics.

Thus, we see progressives voting for Justin the Blackface Pipeline Mogul to defend against Tory racism or climate inaction or something. It's surreal. I genuinely pity the NDP/Greens and their supporters for having to put up with this nonsense.

I tend to agree with a lot of your points here. The problem is that I see this as a high-stakes election where a Scheer government outcome is unacceptable. At this particular point in time, I feel preventing the worst-case scenario is more important than advocating for my beliefs. Normally in most elections, I would (and do) vote NDP.

If I was an American, I would be voting for Biden over Trump if it came down to it, even if Bernie was hypoethetically  running third party but also in this scenario had no path to actually winning the presidency. Sometimes the stakes are just too high to not be tactical and practical IMO.

https://www.thebeaverton.com/2014/06/staunch-new-democrat-to-vote-liberal-again/

That's both funny and sad. Tbat said, I only vote tactically in elections I feel very strongly that a Party must be defeated at all costs. This will be my first time actually, excluding municipal-level voting.

I've voted Layton, Layton, Mulcair and now Trudeau in the last four elections. In provincial elections I've voted Hampton, Horwath and most recently Horwath.

[T'Chenka]

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.

Yeah tactical voting looks like it'll squeeze the NDP again. It's tragic how they lost in 2015, I wish Mulcair had won that election and the NDP was the major party of the left.

My riding is strictly red or blue most of the time, but in that 2015 election it was really looking like the NDP had a shot. I will sadly be tactical voting myself this time, against Scheer's Conservatives. In my riding the best way to.do so is to vote Liberal. The stakes are too high with the climate crisis for me to spend my vote virtue signalling that I support the NDP in a riding where they will not win (this time).

If the polls start massively shifting away from Trudeau and towards Singh, I will vote NDP. It looks like that won't be happening though.

You do realize, your vote isn't going to be the deciding vote in this election, right?

Tactical voting on the level of the individual makes no logical sense.

(1) You have no idea which riding I am in or just how close the polls or results will be between Scheer and Trudeau in my riding. You DON'T KNOW one vote won't count. Ignorant post.

(2) If you haven't figured out, there are likely hundreds or maybe even a thousand plus people in my riding with politics like mine making these same calculations. If we all vote strategically or if none of us vote strategically, it can have a big impact in my riding. Your "one vote doesn't count" argument is a flawed way of thinking. If all of us took your advice and just voted for our preferred party regardless of the situation, we alone as a group could cause a Conservative MP for this riding. Which could be the one MP needed to put Scheer over 50%, or the one MP the Liberal-NDP coalition needed to exceed 50% but now they need to negotiate with the Greens as well to form a government.

(1) Doesn't matter what riding you live in. The chance that your vote will be the deciding vote is negligible. You'd have a better chance getting in a car accident on you way to vote. I've studied elections for a long time. I can count on one hand how many elections have been decided by one vote at all levels of government.

(2) An individual vote is an individual vote. A group of people does not equal a monolithic vote group.

If people like you did vote for who they really wanted instead of stopping who they didn't want, the Liberals would tack left to try and get your votes. If you just vote for them anyway, they don't have to make that shift electorally. If no one votes NDP or Green, then there's no incentive for the Liberals to tack left at all.

And I get it, if everyone like you voted their conscience, maybe the Tories would win. Perhaps that would make for a good punishment for Trudeau for abandoning his electoral reform promise. If he went ahead with his promise, we wouldn't be having this argument.

If you can feel comfortable voting for the Liberals, then that's your prerogative. But do not delude yourself in believing you will have the deciding vote. I can guarantee that will not be the case.

The relationship many progressives have with the Liberals borders on a protection racket. They have single handedly eliminated the one policy that would allow for a progressive alternative to the Liberals and Tories, and then have the chutzpah to play up fear of a Tory government if progressives don't forgive their myriad of sins against progressive politics.

Thus, we see progressives voting for Justin the Blackface Pipeline Mogul to defend against Tory racism or climate inaction or something. It's surreal. I genuinely pity the NDP/Greens and their supporters for having to put up with this nonsense.

I tend to agree with a lot of your points here. The problem is that I see this as a high-stakes election where a Scheer government outcome is unacceptable. At this particular point in time, I feel preventing the worst-case scenario is more important than advocating for my beliefs. Normally in most elections, I would (and do) vote NDP.

If I was an American, I would be voting for Biden over Trump if it came down to it, even if Bernie was hypoethetically  running third party but also in this scenario had no path to actually winning the presidency. Sometimes the stakes are just too high to not be tactical and practical IMO.

https://www.thebeaverton.com/2014/06/staunch-new-democrat-to-vote-liberal-again/

That's both funny and sad. Tbat said, I only vote tactically in elections I feel very strongly that a Party must be defeated at all costs. This will be my first time actually, excluding municipal-level voting.

I've voted Layton, Layton, Mulcair and now Trudeau in the last four elections. In provincial elections I've voted Hampton, Horwath and most recently Horwath.

So, you think Scheer is scarier than Harper?

A lot of progressives voted Liberal in 2015 to give the boot to Harper, but you didn't.

I don't think Scheer is worse than Harper. Perhaps he is "just as bad", but not worse.

No I don't necessarily think that. You're ignoring the unique context of each individual election. Where we are with the climate crisis right now is not where we were 2 elections ago, and the last election it was looking a little less drastic and looked a lot like Harper was going to lose regardless of who I voted for.

[T'Chenka]

So people... what do you think the odds are on these outcomes happening?

Scenario A
LIB + NDP + GRN = greater than 50%

Scenario B
CON + B-Q = greater than 50%

And how about this:

Scenario C
LIB + NDP = almost 50% but not quite
LIB + NDP + GRN = greater than 50%
Scheer becomes Prime Minister anyway

Scenario D
CON + B-Q = greater than 50%
Trudeau becomes Prime Minister anyway

[T'Chenka]

So people... what do you think the odds are on these outcomes happening?

Scenario A
LIB + NDP + GRN = greater than 50%

Scenario B
CON + B-Q = greater than 50%

And how about this:

Scenario C
LIB + NDP = almost 50% but not quite
LIB + NDP + GRN = greater than 50%
Scheer becomes Prime Minister anyway

Scenario D
CON + B-Q = greater than 50%
Trudeau becomes Prime Minister anyway

Scenario A: 80%
Scenario B: 5%
Scenario C: 25%
Scenario D: 20%

Should not A and B add up to nearly 100%  Unless you think PPC will win a bunch of seats more than the 1 it might win. 

It isn't seats but rather voting percentage. In any case I think the likelihood of Libs/NDP/Greens getting over 50% is 80%, of Cons/BQ getting over 50% only 5%,, and 15% chance of I have no clue.

I meant the scenarios to be % of SEATS not votes, but it's my fault that I neglected to mention that in my post.

[T'Chenka]

https://twitter.com/quito_maggi/status/1184924872251772931

I actually believe this might very well happen.  Devastating result for Tories and almost certainly will force Scheer's resignation and big changes in the party, but I think a combination of things are happening to cause this.  Tories are strong in Prairies but weak elsewhere.  Atlantic Canada is a Progressive Conservative and Scheer still seems too Reform like to win there.  Scheer's French is very weak so losses in Quebec, although BQ gains will temper Liberal support there.  Ontario hates Ford and so desire to not have a second Conservative government will mean a very poor showing there.  In BC, environment is a huge issue and while any are fiscally conservative, Tories weak stance on the environment hurts them there.  Still with strong splits will probably gain in the last one.

I fear though national divisions will get worse as Alberta and Saskatchewan will feel even more alienated from the rest of Canada and that will be a challenge Trudeau will have to deal with which won't be easy.

Perhaps the NDP will perform very well, Conservatives sputter out and Trudeau gets a minority with the NDP supporting them at a high cost. This could potentially speed up green initiatives out west to get the energy sector prepared for the future and show prairies voters that green energy, green jobs and green economy aren't just left wing pipe dreams. This would be HUGE in terms of Canada going green and in terms of shortening the divide between the provinces.

Not even close to a sure thing, but it's possible.

[T'Chenka]

What caused the Green collapse? Did May do a blackface skit singing "Ragged but Right" or something?

Unless your local Green candidate is a serious contender to win the parliamentary seat in your riding, a lot of Green voters on election day have to decide if they reallywant to "waste" their vote on Green in order to show support for the party, or if they want to have a say in who is actually going to represent them in government. It's frustrating, and I wpuld know because I go through the same thing in my riding as an NDP voter. You have to decide how important the outcome of this particular election is and vote accordingly.

[T'Chenka]

I'm familiar with the general lay of the land in Canadian politics and the big names in Canadian political history but don't follow the Canadian political process day-to-day. Can someone explain to me what exactly it is about Biebertrudeau that makes him so uniquely loathsome to the West? He's not even that anti-fossil fuel except rhetorically. Do people see the campaign rhetoric and assume he's coming for their livelihoods even though he's barely lifted a finger against the oil lobby in the past four years? Is there just a different culture out there that's put off by the dictatorship-of-the-woketariat vibes? Is it an affirmative strategy on the CPC's part to establish itself as a Western Canadian sectional party, rather than toxicity on Trudeau's part?

Trudeau talks and comes off like an effeminate hippy and a hardcore SJW. That's not 100% true mind you, but those elements are there in his personality, and if you dislike thise things you will latch onto them. He is EXTREMELY minority-friendly and LGBTQ-friendly as well. You can see how some traditional conservatives will view this. His actual policy isn't noticed as much as his personality by his detractors, but they DO notice when he does controversial liberal things like giving taxpayer money to Syrian refugees and dressing full-on Indian on his trip to India.

TL;DR: He isn't a "man's man" that you want to drink beer, watch hockey and chase girls with, he's a liberal p__sy.

[T'Chenka]

I'm familiar with the general lay of the land in Canadian politics and the big names in Canadian political history but don't follow the Canadian political process day-to-day. Can someone explain to me what exactly it is about Biebertrudeau that makes him so uniquely loathsome to the West? He's not even that anti-fossil fuel except rhetorically. Do people see the campaign rhetoric and assume he's coming for their livelihoods even though he's barely lifted a finger against the oil lobby in the past four years? Is there just a different culture out there that's put off by the dictatorship-of-the-woketariat vibes? Is it an affirmative strategy on the CPC's part to establish itself as a Western Canadian sectional party, rather than toxicity on Trudeau's part?

Less a failing of the Libs or Ottawa in general, and more a success on the part of the various conservative parties that they have cultivated a loyal base in the oil industry - it's just maybe a bit too successful. Various conservative tickets have not lost Alberta in recent history, more often than not it's their best province. The province was so loyal that it had two viable right-wing parties locally until their vote splitting finally enabled the NDP opposition. The Petroleum industry in general tends to draw/cultivate right-wingers, no matter where you are in the  globe. The low education requirements, high pay, and male dominated environment all set the starting point for the industry rather far toward the conservative axis of ideology.

More recently though? Oil states as a general rule go in boom and bust cycles that boom when the overall market is poor and bust when the overall market is high. Since the markets are  strong, Alberta will suffer no matter how many pipelines are built. Same situation in Alaska which is why the state is ungovernable right now. People were highly motivated to turnout and highly motivated to vote for the  opposition because they feel left behind in contrast to the rest of the country, even though whenever the next recession hits it will be the other way around. We can debate endlessly whether the decision to put all of Alberta's eggs into to Oil extraction basket rather then diversifying industry to oil-related manufacturing for plastics or cement or whatever was a good one, but Alberta's situation is that of a rentier state whose opinions of govt move with the markets. 

Liberals somewhat but even moreso NDP and Greens want to basically begin a Canadian version of The Green New Deal, especially in Alberta, which would partially untether the Alberta economy from global oil and gas markets. In the long term, this is definitely the better path forward for Alberta. Many voters don't see thus though, instead buying into the Conservative "BUT MUH OIL SANDS, F__K THE PLANET" rhetoric. There is no sustainable future in Alberta that involves keeping things going the way they are now.