Canadian Election 2019

[136or142]

Scheer had a great performance  and was the winner tonight

Unfortunately most people won't know this, but the debate showed what a cynical, dishonest sleazebag Andrew Scheer is.  

Liar Scheer claimed he could balance the budget, cut taxes and increase spending all by eliminating corporate subsidies and by cutting foreign aid by 25%.

Polls have repeatedly shown that Canadians believe government foreign aid spending is 10 times higher than it actually is.  The actual amount of government spending on foreign aid was $6.1 billion in 2018.  

Scheer knows that Canadians think it's about $60 billion.  So, he knows that Canadians think he'll but about $15 billion in foreign aid spending when he'll actually only cut $1.5 billion (if he even has a serious proposal to do that.)

Andrew Scheer is thoroughly contemptible.  I'm not surprised American Republicans like him.

[adma]

Also re Singh: Lester Pearson wasn't out after the Diefenbaker landslide in 1958.

Or for that matter, Gary Doer wasn't out after the Manitoba NDP was decimated in 1988.

[DL]

Also re Singh: Lester Pearson wasn't out after the Diefenbaker landslide in 1958.

Or for that matter, Gary Doer wasn't out after the Manitoba NDP was decimated in 1988.

...and John Turner wasn't dumped after he led the federal Liberals to a disastrous defeat in 1984 and neither was Stanfield after being crushed by Trudeau in 1968...and Tommy Douglas led the NDP through four elections despite only getting 13-14% of the vote and less than 20 seats in 1962 and 1963. More recently Howard Hampton became Ontario NDP leader in 1997 and went on to lose official party status in three elections and took the NDP as low as 13% in 1999.

There are many factors that go into whether parties keep or depose their leaders - including how personally well-liked the leader is, whether people within the party feel they did as good a job as they could have under the circumstances, whether or not there is a viable alternative leader, whether or not there is a faction in the party that is organizing the get rid of the leader etc... In the case of Singh - he is personally well liked in the party, people think he is campaigning well, there is no viable alternative to him as leader and there is no faction in the party that wants to get rid of him...add to that the NDP is pretty hyper politically correct and would loath to depose the first ever leader of a party who is a visible minority who has had to withstand so much racism during the campaign.

[DC Al Fine]

I think the important thing in regards to Singh's survival is that you can sort of ignore Quebec? If the NDP caucus holds up in the rest of Canada, even if it's masked by a total blowout in Francophone ridings, that would be a healthy sign.

Agreed. The NDP will need to show some improvement for that to happen though. As things currently stand most projection models are showing then losing a significant portion of their Rest of Canada caucus on top of being nearly wiped out in Quebec.
 

[lilTommy]

My take on the Debate:

The format was a bit messy, and fast paced but not in a very good way. It really didn't leave anyone the ability to detail anything. It was set up for quick jabs and points.

-> Trudeau - Looked Angry and frustrated; no major failures or anything he just didn't come across looking very good. Scored some solid jabs against Scheer, but really was the brunt of most people.
-> Scheer - far too aggressive and at points, just mean spirited. He still is un-likable, The CPC somehow managed to track down an even more un-charismatic leader then Harper. His jabs against Trudeau were nothing new, many decent ones though. I just can't see his performance appealing to swing voters.
-> May - Solid, she is the best at delivery facts and figures in these condensed time slots, at times though a bit condescending.
-> Singh - Cool, confident, the most at ease and, as the CBC put it, the most "human" had some of the best one-liners and "zingers" Lacked detail though in most of the policy points. The short 30-45 second time does not work for Singh who's a bit of a story teller.

Singh - B+
May - B
Trudeau - C
Scheer - D-

[Walmart_shopper]

I think the important thing in regards to Singh's survival is that you can sort of ignore Quebec? If the NDP caucus holds up in the rest of Canada, even if it's masked by a total blowout in Francophone ridings, that would be a healthy sign.

Agreed. The NDP will need to show some improvement for that to happen though. As things currently stand most projection models are showing then losing a significant portion of their Rest of Canada caucus on top of being nearly wiped out in Quebec.
 

And with the possibility, no matter how diminished, of a Conservative government they'll inevitably bleed strategic votes in non-Francophone ridings to the Grits. Singh failed to make his party competitive enough to avoid lob-sided strategic voting losses. Do no matter how adorable he is on TV it is nevertheless hard to look past that. He's young enough to contend for leadership again, though.

[Hatman 🍁]

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.

Yeah tactical voting looks like it'll squeeze the NDP again. It's tragic how they lost in 2015, I wish Mulcair had won that election and the NDP was the major party of the left.

My riding is strictly red or blue most of the time, but in that 2015 election it was really looking like the NDP had a shot. I will sadly be tactical voting myself this time, against Scheer's Conservatives. In my riding the best way to.do so is to vote Liberal. The stakes are too high with the climate crisis for me to spend my vote virtue signalling that I support the NDP in a riding where they will not win (this time).

If the polls start massively shifting away from Trudeau and towards Singh, I will vote NDP. It looks like that won't be happening though.

You do realize, your vote isn't going to be the deciding vote in this election, right?

Tactical voting on the level of the individual makes no logical sense.

[Hatman 🍁]

Re: Singh's leadership: The media is going to be relentless in saying that he should go if the NDP does poorly. I mean, they were awful to poor Andrea after the 2014 provincial election despite actually gaining seats from 2011.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I mean if the NDP does do very badly (hardly certain yet of course), then that would presumably be a reflection on Singh's failure to make any impact on the public consciousness before the election? There's no virtue in making excuses for poor leadership out of sentiment.

[Hatman 🍁]

Of course, if there's a minority government, this will complicate matters even more. Even with a small caucus, the party will play a more important role in Parliament, and won't want to be bogged down by another leadership race. One big reason why Jack got more and more popular was because of the party's leverage they held during the endless minority governments between 2004-2011. 

[they don't love you like i love you]

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.

Yeah tactical voting looks like it'll squeeze the NDP again. It's tragic how they lost in 2015, I wish Mulcair had won that election and the NDP was the major party of the left.

My riding is strictly red or blue most of the time, but in that 2015 election it was really looking like the NDP had a shot. I will sadly be tactical voting myself this time, against Scheer's Conservatives. In my riding the best way to.do so is to vote Liberal. The stakes are too high with the climate crisis for me to spend my vote virtue signalling that I support the NDP in a riding where they will not win (this time).

If the polls start massively shifting away from Trudeau and towards Singh, I will vote NDP. It looks like that won't be happening though.

That's what I would do if I lived in a riding where only Liberals and Conservatives were competitive too. I'd also have no choice but to vote Liberal in Quebec.

[DL]

Re: Singh's leadership: The media is going to be relentless in saying that he should go if the NDP does poorly. I mean, they were awful to poor Andrea after the 2014 provincial election despite actually gaining seats from 2011.

Yet there was zero pressure on Howard Hampton to be dumped as ONDP leader after abysmal results in 1999, 2003 and 2007. The flak that Horwath got in 2014 was less about the result of the election than about the fact that she ran an awful campaign and people saw it as a missed opportunity...though she still got an 80% vote of confidence at the subsequent ONDP convention.

The media can say what they want - NDP delegates would have to vote to have a new leadership context whenever the next NDP convention is - likely Fall of 2020 and i think its highly unlikely they would vote to have another contest no matter what the result is of the election. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Please, Americans, keep your deranged two-party system mindsets out of this thread. Thnx.  

[Hatman 🍁]

Re: Singh's leadership: The media is going to be relentless in saying that he should go if the NDP does poorly. I mean, they were awful to poor Andrea after the 2014 provincial election despite actually gaining seats from 2011.

Yet there was zero pressure on Howard Hampton to be dumped as ONDP leader after abysmal results in 1999, 2003 and 2007. The flak that Horwath got in 2014 was less about the result of the election than about the fact that she ran an awful campaign and people saw it as a missed opportunity...though she still got an 80% vote of confidence at the subsequent ONDP convention.

The media can say what they want - NDP delegates would have to vote to have a new leadership context whenever the next NDP convention is - likely Fall of 2020 and i think its highly unlikely they would vote to have another contest no matter what the result is of the election. 

I can see some parallels to the 1999 election actually. The NDP did comparatively well in 1995 thanks to the coattails of government/incumbency, which went away in 1999. (Much like the NDP's result in 2015 was historically good because of incumbents from the class of 2011) Despite the party doing terrible in 1999, Hampton stuck around.   

[DL]

...and while Hampton wasn't a bad leader, he was no where near as likeable or charismatic as Singh can be at his best. Also, if Hampton had been deposed there would have been several viable successors to him in the ONDP - not requiring bilingualism makes a big difference

[MaxQue]

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.

Yeah tactical voting looks like it'll squeeze the NDP again. It's tragic how they lost in 2015, I wish Mulcair had won that election and the NDP was the major party of the left.

My riding is strictly red or blue most of the time, but in that 2015 election it was really looking like the NDP had a shot. I will sadly be tactical voting myself this time, against Scheer's Conservatives. In my riding the best way to.do so is to vote Liberal. The stakes are too high with the climate crisis for me to spend my vote virtue signalling that I support the NDP in a riding where they will not win (this time).

If the polls start massively shifting away from Trudeau and towards Singh, I will vote NDP. It looks like that won't be happening though.

That's what I would do if I lived in a riding where only Liberals and Conservatives were competitive too. I'd also have no choice but to vote Liberal in Quebec.

What about a riding like mine, which is described a Lib-NDP-Bloc three-way race (with Conservatives irrelevent)?

[DC Al Fine]

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.

Yeah tactical voting looks like it'll squeeze the NDP again. It's tragic how they lost in 2015, I wish Mulcair had won that election and the NDP was the major party of the left.

My riding is strictly red or blue most of the time, but in that 2015 election it was really looking like the NDP had a shot. I will sadly be tactical voting myself this time, against Scheer's Conservatives. In my riding the best way to.do so is to vote Liberal. The stakes are too high with the climate crisis for me to spend my vote virtue signalling that I support the NDP in a riding where they will not win (this time).

If the polls start massively shifting away from Trudeau and towards Singh, I will vote NDP. It looks like that won't be happening though.

You do realize, your vote isn't going to be the deciding vote in this election, right?

Tactical voting on the level of the individual makes no logical sense.

This x1000

Vote your conscience. Imperfect politicians don't deserve your non-decisive vote just because of how they're polling.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Singh looks great. Such a shame that the NDP never polls well enough pre-election for NDP supporters to feel like actually voting NDP at the ballot box isn't a waste of a vote in many of the ridings.

Yeah tactical voting looks like it'll squeeze the NDP again. It's tragic how they lost in 2015, I wish Mulcair had won that election and the NDP was the major party of the left.

My riding is strictly red or blue most of the time, but in that 2015 election it was really looking like the NDP had a shot. I will sadly be tactical voting myself this time, against Scheer's Conservatives. In my riding the best way to.do so is to vote Liberal. The stakes are too high with the climate crisis for me to spend my vote virtue signalling that I support the NDP in a riding where they will not win (this time).

If the polls start massively shifting away from Trudeau and towards Singh, I will vote NDP. It looks like that won't be happening though.

That's what I would do if I lived in a riding where only Liberals and Conservatives were competitive too. I'd also have no choice but to vote Liberal in Quebec.

What about a riding like mine, which is described a Lib-NDP-Bloc three-way race (with Conservatives irrelevent)?

NDP there.

[ON Progressive]

Forum has released the first post-debate poll and it is a strange poll.

CPC 35% (+4)
LPC 28% (-6)
NDP 13% (+1)
Greens 12% (nc)
Bloc 7% (+1)
People's 3% (nc)

This poll has some absurd regionals, it should be said. They have the CPC at 75% in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, with the Liberals at just 2%! That is way too low, especially if the LPC is at 22% in Alberta like this poll claims.

In any case, plugging the numbers into the TooCloseToCall model results in CPC 154, LPC 122, NDP 24, GPC 4, BQ 33, and 1 independent.

[Tintrlvr]

Forum has released the first post-debate poll and it is a strange poll.

CPC 35% (+4)
LPC 28% (-6)
NDP 13% (+1)
Greens 12% (nc)
Bloc 7% (+1)
People's 3% (nc)

This poll has some absurd regionals, it should be said. They have the CPC at 75% in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, with the Liberals at just 2%! That is way too low, especially if the LPC is at 22% in Alberta like this poll claims.

In any case, plugging the numbers into the TooCloseToCall model results in CPC 154, LPC 122, NDP 24, GPC 4, BQ 33, and 1 independent.

Interesting that the CPC doesn't win a majority on a 7-point lead, although in practice this result would definitely be a CPC government.

[adma]

And the Nanos tracker is showing the Libs back in front after a one-day blip beneath the Cons--and the NDP *down* a tenth of a point!  Whither the anticipated "Jagmeet bump"?

Though one other thing I'm wondering about in the post-debate Jagmeetmania: how much of this is among *younger* voters, who are traditionally hard to poll and hard to convince to vote?  For all we know, we might see a polling-booth Jagmeet spurt at the expense of *nobody*, but simply through raw numbers of young voters who might otherwise not have voted.

(And the ghost of this was already apparent in pre-election polls, where for all his doldrums, Jagmeet had a way of overperforming among the younger-cohort set that even the Greens didn't)

[Krago]

EKOS: Here are the strangest regional breakdowns you've ever seen!
Tight National Race with Evidence of Further Volatility

Forum: Hold my beer.
Liberals Dip Following the Debate

[Krago]

Gotta love Forum polls!

Only 40% of PPC supporters approve of Maxime Bernier being allowed into the Leaders debates, the LOWEST of all the parties.

[lilTommy]

Leger 10/9

LPC: 31% (-3)
CPC: 31% (-3)
NDP: 18% (+4)
GPC: 11% (-)
PPC: 3% (+1)

*Note: BQ not included in federal numbers, but polling at 29% in QC specifically. (LPC - 31%, CPC - 16%, NDP 13%, GRN - 7%, PPC - 3%)

Mainstreet 10/8

CPC: 32% (-1.1)
LPC: 31.7% (-0.9)
NDP: 14.3% (+1.1)
GPC: 10.3% (+0.2)
BQ: 6.1% (-0.4)
PPC: 4.2% (+0.8 )

[DL]

Leger 10/9

LPC: 31% (-3)
CPC: 31% (-3)
NDP: 18% (+4)
GPC: 11% (-)
PPC: 3% (+1)

*Note: BQ not included in federal numbers, but polling at 29% in QC specifically. (LPC - 31%, CPC - 16%, NDP 13%, GRN - 7%, PPC - 3%)

Mainstreet 10/8

CPC: 32% (-1.1)
LPC: 31.7% (-0.9)
NDP: 14.3% (+1.1)
GPC: 10.3% (+0.2)
BQ: 6.1% (-0.4)
PPC: 4.2% (+0.8 )

Keep in mind that Mainstreet is based on a three-day roll - so only one third of their sample from the poll referred to above is post-debate